chinesetea

chinesetea | Joined since 2013-08-14

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General

2014-01-20 21:48 | Report Abuse

Thanks for recommendation of Kossan. Although the profit and prospect is good, somehow I have avoided this counter recently as I have found too many big players (including EPF) owning the share and too much coverage and the price has been uptrend for sometime. To gain the benefit, some need to enter as early as possible. For example, my mentor recommended Hartalega when it was RM2 around 2010. When everyone is talking about it, then it may be too late. If you already bought it long time ago, then I will definitely keep it. It's a bit like DSONIC, do you still want to add more after split at RM2.2 if you have added below 9.5 before? The price movement become slow after split. I still hold a lot of DSONIC but I have stopped collecting after RM9

There is nothing wrong with it but I rather put money on new IPO company with less big fund involvement (Karex) and means there is a bigger upside potential.

Interestingly there is an article this morning that share my view
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/oldschool_jaejun/45120.jsp

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2014-01-20 16:58 | Report Abuse

Just to clarify what I said, I was referring to what happen last week. Now we know they are a team and I am sure they are more unsung hero leaving at the same time and join ecoworld. See how many people leave with liew and Hr department must be very busy. Liew effectively stop end of April. Expect some good news and collect whenever there is any correction in between.

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2014-01-17 07:16 | Report Abuse

The rise was caused by purchased from institutional funds
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/271549-hot-stock-eco-world-rebounds-up-8-on-institutional-play.html

Who are they ? Big shark or investment fund that know something about to happen. Even the large drop two days ago, I saw the buy is higher than seller.

Yes we must be cautious too. I suggest you do not buy this stock if you cannot withstand the roller coaster.

Talk is easier than done. When price is heading south, you are afraid of buying and when it is up you think it can go further. You cannot grasp the timing either.
Greed vs Fear can affect your sleep. Better invest something and wait for it to rise in longer term.

General

2014-01-16 22:48 | Report Abuse

Hi Siva68, welcome.

MKH is a good counter without doubt. However personally I never touch warrant although short term profit can be good, risk is also great. You probably have not been burned before. You need to take care of the time decay each month. When market suddenly in down turn, warrant can become a useless paper.

MKH also give good dividend and bonus shares every year. The future prospect is good because of the plantation business that has already added significantly to the profit. I also like the fact that the plantation is in Kalimantan and will be doubled and hence a higher target is set recently. You probably heard about the news about Robert Kwok (although I am no sure it is right) and China do not want to increase the purchase of palm oil from Malaysia.

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2014-01-16 20:57 | Report Abuse

Nallayak, thanks for you comment. As a long term investor, without DIBS is good for Malaysia in long erterm. Same as the various subsidies. That gives investor confidence about the market in the long term. Less speculation means it will not create the property bubble.
Now without DIBS, what kind of buyer can afford to buy property?

If you look at the market in the world especially London, you will see cash rich investor from Arabs, China, Russian and etc that overtake locals in buying property. What kind of property will they buy? The property with highest quality, best location and property that can create high rental yield. Who can develop such property in Malaysia when competition become tougher?

If you are worried about termination of DIBS, so as the directors of Ecoworld. Do you think they will keep investing on Malaysia alone? Eco 'World' is the answer

General

2014-01-16 18:52 | Report Abuse

Congratulations to you that have manage to buy at 3.6. I am just try to calm people down. I have made a mistake before by listening to those basher long time ago and sell in panic. Now I know some of them want the price to go down so that they can buy at cheaper price. I know there are a lot of people used their hard earn money and don't like to see them to make same mistake like me.

Foreign fund will definitely retreat when EU and US economy is picking up but our EPF and Tabung HAJI are also strong. Blue chip will be affected first. So I would concentrate on Ace Market and some stock in main market that has low foreign fund involvement. The type of business that cannot be affected by economy like dsonic and karex. If you want stable undervalue stock, I highly recommen CBIP.

It has purchased an OIL and Gas company recently. Their palm trees are still young. It is try to plant 5000-8000 ha every year and target is to reach 100,000ha. Dividend is high and they also have business to build machine and vehicle.

They start planting in 2010 and in year 2014 tree will start to mature and will start contributing to earning. Mark this down price at 3.22 and look back this post after 3 years, you will be amazed.

When CPO price is up and earning is increased gradually, this stock will become a giant. One problem about this stock is at the moment, the price hardly move regardless of KLCI index. I take it as an advantage to take profit for week stock and gradually park your profit in this counter and one day, you will be rewarded.

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2014-01-16 17:30 | Report Abuse

Read my earlier comment this morning about HLCap and Ecoworld and look at the two top gainer today. Low free float shares are like this. It can go up and down like roller coaster. If you want stable share price, go and buy blue chip.

Think about low free float share like antique, the less number it is the more expensive it is where there is more buyer but less seller.

It's much easier for a small company to grow 100% y-o-y compare to large company. It's easier to double profit from 1m to 2m but not so easier for big company like MayBank to double their profit.
Moreover, big company like Maybank keep dilutiing their shares by ESOP, DRP (dividend reinvestment program) means they have more shares each year.
It's just like a family,
1) First family dad's salary is the same each year or grow little but he make 5 more children each year. Sooner or later, the children will eat less.

2) Second family (Ecoworld) you have only few children, their dad can give them the best and their pocket money can grow easier compare to the first family. Not only that, his dad has spare money to spend on something else or make their house bigger.

The only problem with small free float share is when people panic and sell at a low price. So keep calm next time and if you want to sell, please sell higher. I sincerely hope you can join this counter and steadily we can prosper together. No need to give not so helpful bashing.

If you see big drop next time, hold your breath and buy, this chance may not happen again.

If you believe in Setia, then I suggest you to buy the day Liew announce his departure and when people panic selling. Setia still has about 9bn unbill profit but I will not buy now until PNB decide want to do with their injection. I would rather put my money on ecoworld, IOI or matrix which is still young and MKH that has both property and plantation that is seriously undervalued. There are a lot of land own by property company but without good reputation and management, it's just a piece of waste land. I trust ecoworld's reputation and thier people.

*You buy at your own risk*

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2014-01-16 07:31 | Report Abuse

Why hlcap price keep rising while other bank shares rarely move. Answer is that their free float share number is very low. It can rise and drop easily. Same applies to ecoworld.

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2014-01-16 07:19 | Report Abuse

Finally, the respected slts Inari champion that want to buy at 1.3 is here. What wind has blow you here?
Sure good news is coming :-) and you want to buy cheap?

First answering Bobby31 question

1. Can non bank share price higher than bank like CIMB? Yes
You cannot compare by price alone. It depends the number of shares for a counter or in another words whether it is diluted. Check the Par value
CIMB shares is 7.73bn and free float is 6.61b.
Ecoworld shares number is 253.32m and free float is 53.31m
DSonic was another example that reach to RM10 before it splits.
Par value of Ecoworld is RM1 and can be split further.
To make you to understand easier, if ecoworld only issue one share for whole company, what will be the price?


2. Can you buy or sell shares base on a person?
You don't need to look further, just give you two examples,
When Steve Balmer announced his retirement Microsoft shares rise 7%. What do you think about Setia when he leave?
There are plenty more example where share price increase immediately a talented person join the company.
Can share price surge after merger and take over? Plenty of examples, just look at Nokia
Btw, I am not buying based on Liew alone. Plently of previous Setia director is in the company. Without Liew, the Mapple Sdn Berhad have achieved immensely in the past year, not to mention the 200 plus employee that left Setia.


3. Are you buying high PE shares base on hope?
Do you know a stock can have PE 700?
Read this http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/332886

I am sure more or less people buy shares on hope, otherwise they can buy fixed income instruments like bond. Can we expect more earning from Ecoworld? You only need to look at their sales recently.
The current PE is belong to Focus Aim and haven't taken into account
whatever result of Ecoworld as they have just taken over and only changed the name 3 weeks ago. Focal Aim's result alone has already improved by 300% recently. Am I too ambitious to hope they can improve their share price by 20-40%?

To be honest, I am not sure why people panic. The Dow index dropped heavily on Monday and because Malaysia was on holiday Tuseday and therefore it was just catching up the cough earlier. Last night Dow increase 108 and I am sure most counter will be green today. Good luck, stay calm and watch. If the price drop, I will use it as a opportunity to buy. You have to decide yourself.

Btw, I also invest heavily on Matrix, Brem, MKH and a lot more under value stock.

General

2014-01-15 21:58 | Report Abuse

Chrollo, you are absolutely right about the PE. When you see something that other people don't see, that's how you pick a winning stock earlier than others.
When the ecoworld earning becomes the calculation, guess what the PE will be?
When 2014 report out and compare to last year earning, you will start seeing headlines like dsonic. That's why I said after the next quater report, Dsonic will not be able to do the same as the 2013 result is good in comparison to 2012.

General

2014-01-15 21:39 | Report Abuse

Tewnama, dsonic result should be out in 28 Feb and director selling, why is the price up? We all know what the result will be in last quater base on last 3 quater result. 170% and above Y-o-y improvement at least.

Either someone goreng it up or because when whole market is down, dsonic become a safe heaven.

General

2014-01-15 21:36 | Report Abuse

Good to know someone on the same boat. You don't need to believe my analysis and I am sure you have make your own judgement base on what you see if you visit their show room, reading their reports and also analysis from Maybank analyst.

If we know it is a good counter, we stand firm until it reach the value we expected. We have seen lots of people shouting limit down like recently try to say something bad about DSONIC to get price below RM2. They all disappear now.

Sometimes we do need to cut lost if there is particular bad news about the company that affect their earnings. I have made big mistake before by panic selling. Now I have learnt my lesson and will stand firm on any counter I believe.

Since Focal aims earning has improved over 300% and with Ecoworld talented people joining, I have high confidence for their future.

It's always not easy to buy shares when you see price falling.
Under normal circumstances, you will buy something when it becomes cheap and sell when something is expensive. We sometimes behave differently in stock world.

In September when there is a great fall, one may collect some good stock like PresBhd when it was below 1.8 but instead people keep selling. I have greatly benefit in September by bravely buying lots of bargain undervalue stock and my return has improved 30% over 3 months.

Although property counter is cooled down by Government measure but I am sure it will still have some future as it remains one of the cheapest market per square foot. Btw, I treat you guys as friends and for those who don't know me, I am very close to Battersea Power station ;-),


Hope we can help each other to find more counters and prosper together.

General

2014-01-15 18:25 | Report Abuse

Hi Chrollo. The land information I got is based on annual report 2012 page 76
http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2013/01/31/1478220666--472579004.pdf

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/09/18/Eco-World-buys-into-Focal-Aims.aspx/

http://www.theedgeproperty.com/news-a-views/11626-focal-aims-is-target-of-takeover.html

1. For focal, some land was purchased in 1994. After revaluation, it adds about RM 1.50 to the recent price 1.66 offered by Ecoworld while taking over. So Focal alone can worth 3.16.

2/ Now what we are not sure is the value of asset that's going to be injected into Focal. Ecoworld Sdn has gathered a lot more land in the past years but I think they are working on something bigger that they need a listing company in order to fund their purchase.

Based on Maybank rough calculation, the land injection can add another 2.24 to the value which will happen in 1H of 2014.
http://research.maybank-ib.com/pdf/document/Property_SU_20140108_MKE_Draft_5624.pdf

What we don't know is whether they will purchase land in London and Melbourne to expand this. But I would not buy based on this expectation. The above two (1,2) assumption is already enough for me to hold and purchase more stock today at low price.

There is a panic selling today that's nothing to do with Ecoworld. If you look at our portfolio today, most counter are affected by drop of KLSE index.

The problem with Ecoworld major fluctuation is to do with low free float. It can go up as well as down in large percentage.

What I am afraid is that they may be jealousy from the other camp and political motive to sabotage the counter.

I don't want to post this in Ecoworld forum as too many people now talking nonsense.

Thanks for people here that share their nice comment.

Btw, I took profit for all my puncak at 3.3 and now only 1 lot left for fun.

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2014-01-15 16:06 | Report Abuse

Personally I think it's mirroring the klse index. I will wait to see how the index goes before doing anything.

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2014-01-15 15:33 | Report Abuse

Wow, many people from setia camp come to shout run. It's following the index.
It's cheap now and greatly undervalued.

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2014-01-15 02:29 | Report Abuse

hi nightshade, the other day you mentioned about the expiration of MGO. As far as I know the maximum date is T+60ish from the day it announced. I assume it has expired? Can you please share your knowledge?

General

2014-01-14 18:14 | Report Abuse

Hi bull, finally your Myeg is 0.50 increase after 3 months while Dsonic has increased 2.50 from 8.20 to 10.7. You were right about the potential of Myeg.
I was looking into Myeg but pe quite high. You still own Myeg? I am looking for some other counter. Your joke always make me laugh. I think you may make lots of enemy by doing these :-). Anyway glad to see you still giving nice advice in between the jokes.

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2014-01-14 04:27 | Report Abuse

It is under minor correction and normally take a week based on recent movement before it can go further up. The chart show uptrend for weekly and monthly. No need to worry unless it trigger the 3.93 stop loss. I agree with asamlaksa and be an investor and ignore short term fluctuation. No stock can up everyday.

General
General

2014-01-13 19:51 | Report Abuse

what a lovely PIE. It is heading to 8 soon.
For nta question, I guess it depends on what kind of asset. For example if it is a piece of land, the price will eventually catch up when the land is used or sold (See BREM). More interesting is the asset may not be re-evaluated recently and the nta figure is not accurate.
If they have cash, you need to see their report, does the cash increase from profit or just selling asset.



Btw, anyone familiar with MGO? If the current price is above MGO price, does that mean, the management will need to offer a higher price or the original price. What happen if share holder reject the offer?

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2014-01-12 02:28 | Report Abuse

For your information,
Ecoworld has taken over another company named knsb and teaming up with Salcon to develop land in Johor.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/first/269143-best-maa-deal-salcons-timely-exit-from-china.html

General

2014-01-10 23:41 | Report Abuse

It's just a method to filter bad stock. You can decide what criteria to fail a test. I think if it fail or two is ok as long as you can explain it. For example a start up company will not have much free cash flow initially. Some figure may be affected by one of event like special dividend and etc. Another parameter to use is price to book ratio. Below 1 is good. Nice to share and also would like to learn from you guys.
Btw, I don't believe in feng shui. Most of the greatest investor like Warren buffet don't use such things. Imagine if wood is good. Do you think hundreds of wood related share will perform well? I rather believe in God and the analysis. Just my personal opinion.

General

2014-01-10 23:04 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/5_rules_cold_eye_kcchongnz/34607.jsp here is an example of the test of share success. It failed because of cash flow. The business is good but some may worry about the cash flow. So you need to decide whether it is a concern. Some may fail badly and some fail one or two.
Kcchong has done some simulation. Full list here http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/5_rules_cold_eye_kcchongnz/blidx.jsp

General

2014-01-10 22:40 | Report Abuse

Tewnama method good. That's what I used on Dsonic.

General

2014-01-10 22:39 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/26614.jsp
Use it wisely. Sometimes you cannot use it on new stock like Karex and ecoworld.

General

2014-01-10 20:30 | Report Abuse

MKH 40% undervalued. Will calm down after goreng people left. Market will then gradually appreciate its value

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2014-01-10 20:23 | Report Abuse

Where can you find such an undervalue stock? 40% discount. Last time I saw such gap was when RHB announced 10.51 price target for DSONIC when the price was 6.49 in december 2013. See what's the price of DSONIC now after 2 months. Today DSONIC price closed at 2.12 (10.6 before split). Buy this and leave it for few months and you will be rewarded handsomely.

General

2014-01-10 19:49 | Report Abuse

Few criteria,
Must be undervalued at least 15%
Profit margin good and cost is low.
Strong potential for at least 2 years.
Brave to cut lost and move on to something better.
Volume must be good and consistently make profit with some exception of business turn around by good management or take over by someone.
Finally and the most important one but not easy to do is to enter as early as possible when you notice the above.


If you think Kossan is good, try compare it with Karex and what's their similarity?
You can also try to use 5 cold eye rule.
This is just my personal rules. I am also learning from sifu here.

General

2014-01-10 19:13 | Report Abuse

PE is good and can invest and to see the benefit you need to hold until end of the year or better still at 2015. I would set target as RM 2

Lot's of Job prospect at pipeline. You can invest some but my suggestion is to look at your profile and see how many stock you own. Concentrate on few stocks that give you best performance and know their business, potential and share movement so that you can buy cheap to collect. Buying is simple but when to sell need wisdom. I suggest no more than 10. With less counter, you can keep track of news and profit and know the best time to gather or sell.

If you want to invest this, get rid of something else, just my 2 cents.

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2014-01-10 19:02 | Report Abuse

Thanks nightshade for your comments.

Regarding the percentage of share owned by Liew Tian Xiong (LTX)
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2013/04/16/DRBHicom-eyes-RM5bil-gross-development-value/
mentioned three director owns 50% of Ecoworld Sdn Bhd. So I guess Liew has at least 15%.

The 65% offer to Focal Aim comprises of 35% from LTX and 30% from Ecoworld.

So I think Liew's percentage of ownership is pretty safe.

Personally I don't think LTX will mind that his Dad to steal his limelight. He is only 22 and the money of all the shares he bought is come from his parents. I think Tan Sri Liew Kin Sin is an invaluable asset to the company but he is also a risk (think about Steve Jobs). Now with his son under immense training by his dad and all the previous directors SP Setia and I have high hope that he will achieve something even better than his dad.
LTX + his dad + talented directors and team = success

Do you think Tan Sri Liew Kin Sin will retire? Think about how many people said the will retire and then back to business. Can he says to the media or SP Setia that he will join Ecoworld soon? Even he may not show his face directly, he can be an advisor role like chairman or independent director. A name should be enough.

Yes you are right that they will not rush to inject asset but they will definitely it at some point as mentioned in the offer document as well as recent reply in UMA. If you buy after that, then it is too late to catch the speedy boat.

I think they can issue more shares to fund more land acquisition and to be fair to existing shareholder before diluting the shares, I think they can give away 'SOMETHING'. i.e. bonus, special dividend and etc. Can they put the price back to RM2? Yes they can split or give bonus shares.

Anyway, I am holding this for long term and do not suggest anyone to speculate and earn quick bugs. I rather the share price rise steadily than goreng by everyone. This will be much more healthier.

In comparison to DSONIC, dsonic has sound fundamentals and earning is consistent and you cannot expect any surprise extra profit by sudden price hike of ID or passport. It will only improve its earning by diversify the business and earn more contract.
For ecoworld, you can expect a lots of surprise and additional earning and hence the high PE ration. Ecoworld (Formely Mapple) was set up in 2011. Their profit has improved by 300% recently. Imagine now these talented people start using the Focal's land and the land they start gathering a year ago and turn into profit - I have made my decision, do you want to invest in such company? It's your own call

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2014-01-10 07:03 | Report Abuse

The other day someone laugh at me when I said the price should be much higher than 4.85 and now we know from the asset valuation it is current traded at big discount http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20140110030503/Article/

I cannot blame the person as no one know who am I working for and how reliable is my source.
I post here because I bought the shares but I also would like others to share their news so that we can earn something before the price is hike or downtrend. If setia is good and undervalue I will also buy. My main aim is to discover many undervalue stock for long term investment,

Anyway, now the valuation is come from maybank IB
We also have technical analysis that mentioned up side can reach 6.60. However based on my own calculation that I dare not to post and I think it is still under valued. I may be wrong but you can think about following points,
1. The valuation does not include 5 billion asset injection
2. There was talk about acquisition of UOA shares although this is not confirmed and may be failed but we understand UOA is not a cheap company and from this we can estimate the potential upside if they find alternatives
3. The recent 1billion sales by ecoworld. I am not sure this will be added as profit of the current listing vehicle.
4. The joining of Tan Sri Liew, an invaluable asset
5. A list of plan that is yet to publish until Liew join the company.

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2014-01-10 00:36 | Report Abuse

Hello? Someone with 1 post from another camp? Oh I see it's night time zzz.

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2014-01-10 00:01 | Report Abuse

I also would be interested to see what basis you need for TA target?

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2014-01-09 23:57 | Report Abuse

No basis? This is a technical trading buy Tp. For Fa analysis, see http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ecoworld3/44598.jsp
Calculate TP yourself and let us know what you get.

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2014-01-09 22:47 | Report Abuse

Resistant very strong at rm2.00 and rm2.11. I may be wrong, but based on last year experience, once director bought shares, it will rise in few days time.

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2014-01-09 22:29 | Report Abuse

More shares now make it harder to move. People bought before split are still selling as some of them already make up to 300% gain. Once this phase has passed the price will up. Wake until second week of Feb and you will see it. It may goes up anytime If they are any news.

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2014-01-09 21:41 | Report Abuse

LTAT is buying again today. Take note!!

General

2014-01-09 21:37 | Report Abuse

No worries lah. The portfolio can allow us to see performance. Just buy once and no more transaction and see how it goes after one year.

General

2014-01-09 20:12 | Report Abuse

3.45% gain in 8 days. Not bad :-)

General

2014-01-09 20:00 | Report Abuse

You need to share it first

General

2014-01-09 18:17 | Report Abuse

Please also add Pie. Forgot to mention this gem

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2014-01-09 18:05 | Report Abuse

Not sure. Only found out an hour ago. I have high confidence about this article as it is done by Lee Cheng Hooi. He is often interviewed at BFM radio and his view is quite accurate.