Richkid also got burned badly in Vsolar. Damn it !! seems iike everything he touches turned shit. Hech, just wondering why is he back in XOX. I thought we already banned him from this thread?

Still believe oil price going bullish? 2700 offshore employees just lost their jobs in Singapore today.

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/swiber-goes-into-liquidation-as-directors-resign


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Industry-About-To-Be-Burned-Again-By-Fall-In-Oil-Prices.html

Good Luck to all O & G investors.

Don't be silly. Oil price rebound above $100 will be years away or never wil depending on how you see it. There are many conflicting reports and articles out there even in oilprice.com.The key to investment sucess is how you siphon off noise and facts.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Oil-Prices-Might-Never-Recover.html

I will be bias on the sell side in oil investment style.

So we should see a run up on XOX shares soon hopefully by today afternoon.

The Subscription Shares shall be issued by the Company at the price equivalent to 90% of the
average of the daily volume weighted average market price (“VWAP”) of the Shares as traded
on Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa Securities”) during the five (5) consecutive days
immediately preceding the relevant date that Macquarie Bank sends a subscription notice
and/or other document(s) (as may be agreed by the parties) (“Subscription Date”)
(“Subscription Price”

Thus the price is to be determine later.with the usual 5 VWAP trading and only when the date of subscription is announced. So it will be beneficial for the XOX shareholders if the price of XOX shares is play up between now and the subscription date.

Sure it is good as Macquarie bank also has a large asset management subsidiary. Just look at the volume build up since last week. You should know something big is brewing.

Should be bullish tomorrow as the shares are sold to strategic investor (Macquirie Bank). Macquarie bank Ltd is one of the leading banking group in Australia with assets more than AUD 7 billion.

http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/history2/34/Macquarie-Bank-Ltd.html


So i reckon this should be a solid acquisition by Macquirie Bank and will provide positive synergy to XOX. Should hold it for a longer time period for the good news to price into the shares.

Better wait for SKPetro to become penny stock in 6 - 12 months then only buy. Why rush to buy something when you know there is a big discount coming your way.


http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/10-oil-in-2016-u-s-economy-doomed/


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Shillings-10-Oil-Prediction-Is-Not-Completely-Ridiculous.html


Be patient and only start collecting when it crashed below RM 1.00. At the meantime just switch off the computer and go travelling or fishing.

The problem i see here is that too many people having their portfolio "too concentrated". Meaning they have too few stocks in their portfolio most probably 3-5 stocks. That is why they get too emotional when one of their stocks plunge deeply. Heck there are a few thousand stocks in our KLSE universe. Why concentrate so much on O & G especially on SKPetro. Why must you sink and swim with it?

You guys should be more diversify. According to the Modern Portfolio Theory by Markowitz the optimum portfolio should have about 24 different stocks from different industries. Anything above 24 will not help much in reducing the risk of the portfolio. This is because our CI consists of 30 stocks. If we buy 26 stocks from the CI then might as well buy all 30 which is the market risk. Thus in our KLSE universe you should have stocks in the Banking, Oil & Gas, Services, Trading and so on. Thus a severe drop in the KLCI will only affect your portfolio minimally as your portfolio is well diversified. Why only concentrate on 1 or 2 sectors. If the O & G sector is severely affected globally your portfolio is still protected.

KLCI can turn each way damn fast. Things can change within minutes.

The market is just too volatile for short term trade and that is why i have not bought even 1 lot. Look for the direction of Nikkei and Hang Seng if you want to know the next direction of KLCI.

Is this the calm before the storm?

Please read carefully regarding the SK310 Upstream Gas Sales Agreement. The first gas delivery is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2017. That means it will not have any material effect on financial contribution towards the P & L of the company. It will only start contributing in the financial year 2018.

Firstly, what is the rush? Why not wait longer and buy at a lower prices preferably below RM 1.00.

Secondly, SKPetro only owns 30%. So how big is the contract? If it is a RM 500 million a year contract then it only contributes about RM 170 million in revenue. It is no big deal.

Thirdly, as opposed to the euphoria for the past few weeks regarding production disruptions in Nigeria, Canada and so on, production has again going up. Most importantly there are much bigger headache regarding the glut. See below.

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Bad-News-For-Glut-As-US-Offshore-To-Hit-Record-In-2017.html

So why buy now when you can buy cheaper later? A little bit of simple math will explain why. How much a share needs to go up (in % terms) when it retraced 50%.. Say when SKPetro dropped from RM 2.64 to today's close at RM 1.32. SKPetro will need to go up 100% from today's closing price of RM 1.32 in order to get back to RM 2.64.

So, how much resistance or selling pressure will SKPetro encounters if it were to doubles its share price?

Remember there are 5.99 billion shares outstanding with 4.26 billion shares in public float. Public float refers to how many shares are actually available to be bought and sold by the general investing public.

I won't be surprise to see a 30 - 50 points plunge in the KLCI come next Monday.

Is Friday's market plunge an appetizer to Monday?

Some interesting read for the weekend.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/finance-news/nomura-warns-do-not-underestimate-the-global-contagion-from-brexit/

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/24/alan-greenspan-says-british-break-from-eu-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg.html

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2016/06/brexit-the-system-cannot-hold/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/world-s-400-richest-people-lose-127-billion-on-brexit-chart


Anyway the following are summary of events took place yesterday after Brexit.


UK Stocks -3.14% worst since Jan 2016
US Stocks -3% worst since Aug 2015 (biggest opening gap down since 1987)
VIX +6pts biggest daly rise since Aug 2015 crash
Japan Stocks -7.9% worst since 2011 (Tsunami)
Spain Stocks -12.5% worst since 1987
Italy Stocks -12% worst since 1997
EU Banks -14.5% worst ever
US Banks -4.75% worst since Nov 2011
US 30Y Yield -14bps biggest drop since 2011
US 2Y Yield -14bps biggest drop since 2009
German 10Y Yield -14bps biggest drop since 2011
GBPUSD -11% biggest drop ever
USDJPY -4% biggest drop since 1998
EURUSD -2% biggest drop since Oct 2015
Gold +5% biggest day since Lehman 2008
Crude -4.4% most since Jan 2016


Have a nice weekend !!

Like today's KLCI rebound from the low of 1611 to 1634 is not exactly a good thing. Don't think that our local bourse is strong. What justifies our KLSE being fundamentally strong? Are we fundamentally stronger than Singapore or HongKong?

I would prefer if our KLCI drop by at least 50 points as this will push it close to oversold. Now that we only drop by about 6 points means there are more room to drop next week if Dow Jones crashed tonight. What happens if KLCI just drop back to today's low of 1611 or 23 points drop) on Monday? A lot of share prices get another round of whacking.

Thus i hope you all get my point here.

Bro, but they have been trumpeting Warren Buffet's axiom "be greedy when others are fearful" all this while. Whenever we told them SKPetro's fundamental is deteriorating they kept banging us. Always insist if it go cheaper they will gain more because they can buy more. The way they trade if his grandfather owns a "bukit emas" also can go bankrupt lah.

They only want to hear nice and soothing story about SKPetro. Better still if the price is shooting to the moon.

Wonder where are all those clowns that shouted "be greedy when others are fearful" ? Clowns like Johnmasino and the callme777 with his 100k to buy? Heck this is the real test for you boys. Buy now lah and be greedy buy more. I am fearful now. Johnmasino has already got his hands full with supermx after buying all the way from RM 3.50 till RM 2.20. I just wonder if he is still averaging down?

Hello friend. This is share market and one lesson you must learn is you cannot alway act hubris. The market will shut you up. If you don't believe then do it a few more times then you will know. You must respect the market. Now who are the real clowns?

If you all are not aware S&P futures already limit down and trading is suspended. VIX is above 26. DOW futures is down -800 points Stock, Commodity and Currencies markets are crashing everywhere.

KLSE drop today is nothing compared to other bourses. Nikkei - 7.76%, Hang Seng 5.48%,Bombay 3.56%, Seoul - 3.39%, ASX 3.24%, Taiwan - 2.78%, Singapore 2.62%. Wait till we see a 3% or a 50 points drop in KLSE with more than 1000 counters down and less than 10 counters up. Then it will be carnage.

From whale oil to fossil fuel. Please read the following article and you will understand why fossil fuel use will not be permanent..

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/nyregion/03towns.html?_r=0

It's not oil price. Oil price have been hovering above $50 for the past few days. Yet our Bursa's oil counters keep dropping. It is the market sentiment and psychology. Remember selling begets selling. The lower it goes the more selling will materialise.

Even if there is Bremain it wont do any good as it has already priced into the Stock, currency and commodities market. Look at the GBP/USD already 2016 high. Look at Europe's bourses, some are going for new high. Look at oil already broke $50 from about $ 27 in January. The most Bremain can do is a "flash in the pan" rebound for the markets.

i think SKPetro gone case lah. RM 1.36 cannot hold much longer.

Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. Time to sapu. Buy now at RM 1.41 for contra gain tommorow.

Heck, where are all the commentators? Is this the calm before the storm?

Will there be a Brexit?

After looking at the odds for the past few days i reckon the probability still favors :Remain". Why?

1) GBP/USD is now tradding at 1.4796 which is 2016 high. This shows confidence in the GBP.

See the link.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR


2) The latest poll by YouGov shows there is a sudden shift in the sentiment for the Remain camp.
The latest poll shows 51% to 49% for Remain compared to 44% and 56% on June 19th.


3) According to the latest result from Ladbrokes. Although their political betting odds shows there is an increase in the percentage of people betting for Brexit. At the moment the odds to Remain is 76% while Brexit is 24%.

But there emerge another trend where bets on Remain has gone much larger financially. Meaning some people or should we say "smart mone"' has been increasing their bet at the last minute. The average bet for Remain is 450 pounds while Brexit is at 75 pounds which means it is 6 times larger,

How does this political betting compares to horse racing?

In horse racing the odds for the favourite to win normally fall steadily but when it approaches the race time it falls rapidly. Survey shows that in the morning of the race the odds fall by 4%. 8 minutes befroe the race the odds fell by 18% then finally in the last 5 minutes the odds fell y as much as 20%. This shows the smart money bettor waited until the last minute to bet because they have insider information. Their insider information includes the inefficiency in the betting pool. Information like whether there is too much or too little bets places on this horse.

Thus similarly in political poll betting, insiders or smart money waited for the last moment to increase their bet. I reckon the same scenario will play out in Brexit where the odds soon lean towards Remain in the last few hours before the vote.

At this moment in time i reckon the chances for the Remain camp although still lagged Brexit but will improve when approaching voting time.

Another bad news is what if Brexit occurs? First thing in mind is that investors will look for safe haven. Which currency has always provided a safe haven status? USD for sure. If you study the inter-linkage between commodity and currency markets you will know that the USD core-relates inversely with the price of oil. That means if the USD strengthens then the price of oil weakens,

You look at the following USD index chart and Brent Oil chart. When the USD is at the highest at the end of January this year touching 100. Oil is at the lowest about USD 27+. When the USD dives subsequently the price of oil goes up. Just compare it yourselves

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BRENT

So if there is a BRexit what will be the level of the USD and oil price?

We are not arguing whether SKPetro is going bankrupt. The main theme is why not buy lower. If we know it is going to dive towards RM 1.00 later why buy at RM 1.40 now? If you buy 100 lots it will be RM 40,000.00 cheaper. If it rebounds back to RM 1.40 then we just pocket the RM 40,000.00. If it goes up further to RM 1.60 or RM 1.80 then it is even better as our profit increases to RM 60,000.00 or RM 80,000.00. Whereas those who bought higher are just begining to recover their losses, right?

SKpetro is already a different animal since its glory days in 2014. With deteriorating both external (Global oil price and economic slump) and internal conditions as laid out below.

1) Deteriorating economic moat advantage

2) High level of debts (about 80% peg in USD)

3) Slumping Ringgit USD/MYR. RM 4.045 today. But most debts are pegged at RM 3.00 to RM 3.25.

4) Deteriorating political leverage. Out of favour with current estabishment.

5) Deteriorating company fundamentals. Increase in interest payments due to higher debt load. Renogotiation of Brazilian contract renewal. Discount 6%. FY17/18 forecast is cut by 80%/67% to account for higher idling and lower DCR for tender rigs and lower replenishment for its fabrication and T&I business segments.

Moving forward is SKPetro's fundamental improving or deteriorating in the coming 2 years. So is the share price going anywhere soon? If the fundamentals is deteriorating then why not wait for the price to drop further? Why we need to rush to buy something if we know that the price is getting cheaper in the next few months?

Anyway our first target of RM 1,36 has been reached. Just have to wait whether our second target of RM 1.00 will be achievable within the next 12 months. See below.


Jun 13, 2016 04:21 PM | Report Abuse

For a longer time frame ( 6 months to a year) we should be able to see SKPetro trading at below RM 1.00. Yes a penny stock.


Jun 13, 2016 05:17 PM | Report Abuse

Panic selling in SKPetro should start when it approaches $1.36 which was the low that was recorded back in 25/08/2015. Anyway i do not have any position in SKPetro at the moment and not going to build up any in the short and medium term. I opine it will happen as it already broke the MAV 20,50,100 and 200 days.


Jun 14, 2016 05:32 PM | Report Abuse

Next stop will be RM 1.36. Then we should see some panic selling in this counter.

Next being a contrarian, yes if you can time the market well. If you can't then you are in real trouble. As you dollar cost averaging down, you may start off with a pyramid averaging. Meaning you buy 10 lots then 20 lots then 30 lots. If the market keep dropping so does your funds. Instead you will buy lesser amount like 8 lots then 6 lots then 4 lots. It will become an inverted pyramid. Will it be sustainable? Anyway dollar cost averaging go against Wall Street's axiom of "Cut your losses and let your profits run". Don't know happen to those people who dollar cost averaging counters like Scomi, FGV, Supermax and so on.

Yup, their normal reply is "i can wait for the next three years" or "i am a long term player".
Yeah, hold on for how long? 3. 5 10, 20 years? There is always an oppurtunity cost in holding on to lemmings. You will miss the oppurtunity to recover your losses when the next bull run comes around. The problem is that the rage or the theme in sectoral rotational play time around is not about oil but something else maybe electronics?

limchewi, i reckon you just stay put and stop investing in the stock marketI for the moment.. You have commited too many mistakes on the pillars of succes in the stock market.

1. Too emotional. Can't decide yourself. Listening and getting advise everywhere.
2. Gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.
3. Too bloody naive thinking stock market is a gold mine.
4. No patient.
5. 0 knodledge about stock market

i suggest you go get some education. Start off by buying some books on investment. I have more than 600 books on economics, finance and securities investing. Tou need to spend money on tools before making money from the stock market. I have spend more than RM 100,000 on those books and attending seminars. The most expensive book i ever pay cost me more than USD 600. The tile is "The art of Central Banking" by Ralph G. Hawtrey.

Not listening to rumours. It will only send you to the cleaners. After that you need to pay more tuition fees by testing all sort of tools until you find one that suits you. It will take a few years before you can be a pro.

Anyway since he is so revered about his sifu Warren Buffet regarding his investment on Philips 66. See below.


http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/29/investing/warren-buffett-phillips-66-oil-stocks/

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/17/stay-away-from-refiner-phillips-66-morgan-stanley.html

I reckon we can write off this john whatever masino. If you go through his comments you will noticed that he is an egoistic maniac, racist, pure amateur or trying to be a pro wannabe. Lets debunk some of his calls.


1) Harta

May 12, 2014 12:21 AM | Report Abuse

The stock has already broken below the 200 SMA indicating that it's on a confirmed downtrend. Good luck to those who bought above RM6.00 because I don't know how low this stock will go. It may sink all the way to RM 3..all the best

Nov 10, 2014 05:37 PM | Report Abuse

Those who still buying this stock are all bloody fools! It's trading at more than 22x PER and people still want to buy in this turbulent market. It's earning's have been on a decline the past 3 quarters and with margin's squeezed due to intense competition, this stock is freaking overbought already!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My comments
The problem is since then it was on a bull run and Harta shoot up all the way to RM 6.12 on 06/01/2016. It closed at RM 4.12 yesterday.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2) SKPetro

Nov 14, 2014 01:46 PM | Report Abuse

Those who are still thinking of buying this counter are bloody fools! SeaDrill, the world's biggest offshore driller by market capitalisation have sold a huge chunk of their stake in SapuraKencana!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/seadrill-sells-300-mln-sapurakencana-140444304.html

The dividend yield of SapuraKencana is a shitty, paltry 1% compared to SeaDrill's 19%
Goodluck to those who bought into this stock. I expect this stock to sink all the way to below RM2.00.

For me, personally, I wont even buy this stock.


Mar 5, 2015 02:37 PM | Report Abuse

I pity those who own SKPETRO shares. Today the stock kena whack kaw kaw because 2 directors suddenly resign, 1 being Mahathir's son. When 2 directors suddenly resign for no apparent reason, it usually means something bad is going to happen to the company.


Mar 13, 2015 10:47 PM | Report Abuse

Oil down by more than 3% to USD45.56. Get ready for a mega-sale next Monday. Woohoo!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My comments
The problem is after 05/03/2015 SKPetro ($2.45) went down to RM 2.25 on 16/03/2015. Unfortunately It then shot up like a rocket to RM RM 2.87 on 27/04/2015.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


3) TOPGLOV


Dec 25, 2015 01:22 AM | Report Abuse

Mark my words lar, TG will hit RM16.60 early next year..
Strong results reaffirm BUY

Dec 31, 2015 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

You guys keep monitoring the stock, scared it will go down. But I tell you that TopGlov is deeply undervalued compared to Kossan and Harta which I regard as too expensive. Kossan trading at 32x PER while TopGlov is only trading at 21x PER. Dirt cheap. Even at RM16.60, TopGlov is still cheap trading at just 27xPER.
TopGlov will shoot up lar..no worres..guaranteed..

Feb 5, 2016 03:53 PM | Report Abuse

Top Glove oversold already...

USD is strenthening now...yesterday RM4.10, now RM4.15.will go back to RM4.30 soon..

Buy Buy!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Comments
So what happen to Topglov in 2016? Touch RM 16.60? Yesterday closing RM 4.72 even if you back track the 1 for 1 bonus it is only RM 9.46.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


4) MPAY - Manage Pay


Feb 26, 2015 03:08 PM | Report Abuse

bullbear777: MPAY ACE market stock...LOL...bodoh babi...untuk orang "ASS" macam kamu beli..

bodoh babi.. :-)


Feb 25, 2015 05:09 PM | Report Abuse

bullbear777: you jangan action banyak lar..pakai kereta lamborghini sudah action...saya ada kereta Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, BMW, 3 rumah banglo, 4 condo pun saya tak action macam kamu..

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Comments
On Feb 26 2015, Mpay share price was RM 0.225. Then it shot up till RM 0.365 on 18/05/2015.
So who is right after all? Bloody racist calling others Babi.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Anyway these are only some examples from his comment history. I still can go on for more.Look how he bashed SKPetro. If it is so bad then why buy lately? Got stuck and now SKPetro starts plunging. Now desperately calling people to hold long term?

The rest like Harta, Topglov and Mpay all wrong call. So how to trust amatteurs like this. Damn bloody emotional and cursing everybody when his call goes opposite. Heck even calling others babi. I hope bullbear777 is not a Muslim. I respect him for keeping his cool.

limchewi, i recommend you to stay away fro him. The more advise you get from him the faster you will end up in Holland.

I reckon we can write off this john whatever masino. If you go through his comments you will noticed that he is an egoistic maniac, racist, pure amateur or trying to be a pro wannabe. Lets debunk some of his calls.


1) Harta

May 12, 2014 12:21 AM | Report Abuse

The stock has already broken below the 200 SMA indicating that it's on a confirmed downtrend. Good luck to those who bought above RM6.00 because I don't know how low this stock will go. It may sink all the way to RM 3..all the best

Nov 10, 2014 05:37 PM | Report Abuse

Those who still buying this stock are all bloody fools! It's trading at more than 22x PER and people still want to buy in this turbulent market. It's earning's have been on a decline the past 3 quarters and with margin's squeezed due to intense competition, this stock is freaking overbought already!

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My comments
The problem is since then it was on a bull run and Harta shoot up all the way to RM 6.12 on 06/01/2016. It closed at RM 4.12 yesterday.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2) SKPetro

Nov 14, 2014 01:46 PM | Report Abuse

Those who are still thinking of buying this counter are bloody fools! SeaDrill, the world's biggest offshore driller by market capitalisation have sold a huge chunk of their stake in SapuraKencana!

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/seadrill-sells-300-mln-sapurakencana-140444304.html

The dividend yield of SapuraKencana is a shitty, paltry 1% compared to SeaDrill's 19%
Goodluck to those who bought into this stock. I expect this stock to sink all the way to below RM2.00.

For me, personally, I wont even buy this stock.


Mar 5, 2015 02:37 PM | Report Abuse

I pity those who own SKPETRO shares. Today the stock kena whack kaw kaw because 2 directors suddenly resign, 1 being Mahathir's son. When 2 directors suddenly resign for no apparent reason, it usually means something bad is going to happen to the company.


Mar 13, 2015 10:47 PM | Report Abuse

Oil down by more than 3% to USD45.56. Get ready for a mega-sale next Monday. Woohoo!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My comments
The problem is after 05/03/2015 SKPetro ($2.45) went down to RM 2.25 on 16/03/2015. Unfortunately It then shot up like a rocket to RM RM 2.87 on 27/04/2015.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


3) TOPGLOV


Dec 25, 2015 01:22 AM | Report Abuse

Mark my words lar, TG will hit RM16.60 early next year..
Strong results reaffirm BUY

Dec 31, 2015 10:29 PM | Report Abuse

You guys keep monitoring the stock, scared it will go down. But I tell you that TopGlov is deeply undervalued compared to Kossan and Harta which I regard as too expensive. Kossan trading at 32x PER while TopGlov is only trading at 21x PER. Dirt cheap. Even at RM16.60, TopGlov is still cheap trading at just 27xPER.
TopGlov will shoot up lar..no worres..guaranteed..

Feb 5, 2016 03:53 PM | Report Abuse

Top Glove oversold already...

USD is strenthening now...yesterday RM4.10, now RM4.15.will go back to RM4.30 soon..

Buy Buy!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Comments
So what happen to Topglov in 2016? Touch RM 16.60? Yesterday closing RM 4.72 even if you back track the 1 for 1 bonus it is only RM 9.46.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


4) MPAY - Manage Pay


Feb 26, 2015 03:08 PM | Report Abuse

bullbear777: MPAY ACE market stock...LOL...bodoh babi...untuk orang "ASS" macam kamu beli..

bodoh babi.. :-)


Feb 25, 2015 05:09 PM | Report Abuse

bullbear777: you jangan action banyak lar..pakai kereta lamborghini sudah action...saya ada kereta Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, BMW, 3 rumah banglo, 4 condo pun saya tak action macam kamu..

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My Comments
On Feb 26 2015, Mpay share price was RM 0.225. Then it shot up till RM 0.365 on 18/05/2015.
So who is right after all? Bloody racist calling others Babi.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyway these are only some examples from his comment history. I still can go on for more.Look how he bashed SKPetro. If it is so bad then why buy lately? Got stuck and now SKPetro starts plunging. Now desperately calling people to hold long term?

The rest like Harta, Topglov and Mpay all wrong call. So how to trust amatteurs like this. Damn bloody emotional and cursing everybody when his call goes opposite. Heck even calling others babi. I hope bullbear777 is not a Muslim. I respect him for keeping his cool.

limchewi, i recommend you to stay away fro him. The more advise you get from him the faster you will end up in Holland.

New low RM 1.47. It won't end well today. Watch out !!

New low RM 1.47 today. It won't end well today. Watch out !!

hng33, you make the right decision. You are on the way to become a pro from the way you trade. Wall Street's maxim "cut your losses and let your profit run". I admire you.

Someone here have been calling others idiots, piece of shit and so on. If you read the audit trail on his comments, you noticed that he has already lost his cool since June 10th when SKPetro starts plunging. Jeering others for tracking their stocks daily. But if you do count the number of comments he replied then he is no better then the most of us. He is a screen starer now. He is losing his cool and getting too emotional. A bad sign to show that he is now transforming from being an investor to a speculator. Screen staring is one of the key to most losses. You will be affected by the roller coaster ride on emotions in the market.

He is also affected by the over-confidence bias syndrome. Trying to defend what he thought is right and events that he cannot control. It will be a futile effort and the more he defends his action the more emotional he gets. Obviously he cannot 'see the forest for rhe trees'. He is too involved with the short term price movement of SKPetro ignoring the bigger events that is happening elsewhere.

Apart from new supply of oil from Kazakhstan and Columbia (totalled about 3 million bpd) which is coming onstream this year, there are other developments in the energy space.

China is investing billions into battery technology and electric vehicles (EV). See below.

http://eshare.cnchemicals.com/publishing/home/2015/10/15/2018/china-announces-%E2%80%98game-changing%E2%80%99-investment-in-ev-charging-infrastructure.html

http://phys.org/news/2016-03-chinese-battery-technology.html

http://www.cheatsheet.com/automobiles/china-electric-vehicle-sales-exceeding-expectations.html/?a=viewall


Singapore's NTU develops ultra-fast charging batteries that last 20 years. See below.

http://media.ntu.edu.sg/NewsReleases/Pages/newsdetail.aspx?news=809fbb2f-95f0-4995-b5c0-10ae4c50c934

I have not even touched on alternative energies like solar, wind and so on. Our world is moving towards green technology in order to reduce the amount of pollution that is not only affecting the environment but also its inhabitants.

The question i have been wondering for long is that. When the stock price is down a lot of investors who got stuck at higher prices will console themselves saying it is an excellent oppurtunity to accumulate more.

The question is when is the bottom? If you know that the price is getting cheaper due to negative development both internally and externally then why accumulate now? Likewse, if you know that the price of chicken is going to drop one week before raya due to a bumber import of chicken from Thailand then why do you buy now? Why want to console yourselves over the wrong decision made earlier?

Why not buy it one week before Raya? You not only get it cheaper but also fresher. Right? By the way i reckon the RM 1.50 support level will not hold on any longer. It will be broken very soon.

After participating in many forums, what i found out is that most investors are affected by the "loss aversion" syndrome. Loss aversion refers to investors putting more importance to loss than gains. Studies shown that the weight is greater by about 2.5 times. Hence this lead to people prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains.

People hold on to losses because selling them means,

1) admit being wrong
2) pride

Thus, unaware to them by holding on to losses they have contradicted one of Wall Street's maxim and that is "cut your losses and let your profits run". Instead of cutting your losses earlier investors tend to hold on to them, hoping it will recover one day. But they fail to realise that even former giants like Nokia, Blackberry, Errisson, Enron, Barclays Bank, Lehman Bros and so on also went down the tube. Take the following example.

Say if you bought the following:

1) SKPetro at RM 1.20 and today priced at RM 1.50
2) UMWOG at RM 1.50 and today priced at RM 0.93

Which one will you sell if you need some urgent cash for your son's education? Most people will sell SKPetro right? Unfortunately this is a wrong decision because it go against the above maxim. "Cut your losses and let your profits run". By selling your SKpetro you are cutting your profits and let your losses run.

So for those folks who think that holding on to losses is the right choice then i wish them good luck. Hope your so called stocks will not end up with the likes of Nokia and the lot.

Next stop will be RM 1.36. Then we should see some panic selling in this counter.

SKPetro next stop at RM 1.36.

necro, see below

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/ddm.asp

Anyway have you read the book "Investment Valuation" by Aswath Damodaran?

Hello, even saudi arabia also cannot tahan this round of oil price drop. See articles below.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/saudi-2015-budget-deficit-is-98-billion-as-revenue-drops

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/saudi-arabia-seeking-8bn-loan-plug-fiscal-deficit-1548606

https://www.rt.com/business/346096-saudi-aramco-ipo-banks/

So how does comparing SKPetro to Saudi Arabia equals comparing apple to orange? Even mighty Saudi Arabia needs to seek external loans and listing of Saudi Aramco to finance its deficit. So How?

Panic selling in SKPetro should start when it approaches $1.36 which was the low that was recorded back in 25/08/2015. Anyway i do not have any position in SKPetro at the moment and not going to build up any in the short and medium term. I opine it will happen as it already broke the MAV 20,50,100 and 200 days.

Why is it so surprising if SKPetro going penny stock when another big player UMWOG went down from the high of $4.63 in 14/02/2014 to $0.93 today? Have anyone thought UMWOG going penny? This is share market and anything can happen because value is different from price. Value is one thing which explains why some shares trading way below their NTAs.

In an efficient market price and value will converge. Unfortunately nowadays markets are not efficient anymore and mainly driven by emotions. Retail Investors are driven by their animal spirits and will condone to herd mentality. When they see others are selling they will follow. Hence this will create a negative feedback loop which will drive further selling by margin accounts and those who can't bear any more losses. Selling begets selling which eventually will drive prices lower.

I am afraid this is going to happen to SKPetro when panic selling starts.

Rule No 1. Never play on Margin
Rule No 2. Never catch a falling knife
Rule No 3. Never buy hope in the Stock Market
Rule No 4. Go Back to Rule No1. Rinse and Repeat

Discounting in asset pricing will only work if the global economy is stable. In times like now where the global economy is collapsing everywhere, i wish all those who use Discounted Cash Flow or Discounted Dividend Flow for asset pricing good luck.

For a longer time frame ( 6 months to a year) we should be able to see SKPetro trading at below RM 1.00. Yes a penny stock.

Oil will rebound later this year? You folks better think twice. Paper and physical market is two different thing. Physical always lag the paper market. Current oil price rebound is due the short covering when hedge funds shorted it to below $30 earlier. There is no increase in demand, full stop. So the current recovery is not sustainable.

By the way i am curious whether investors here ever wondered why our world suddenly turned 180 degrees from 'peak oil' to massive over-supply? After 40 years the U.S is now an oil exporter due to the significant improvement in technologies relating to fracking in the shale oil industries.

As a result it has created a massive oil glut. Land storage has almost fully utilized and now they are turning to the sea to store excess oil.See articles below.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-storage-idUSKCN0YA129

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3976749-tsunami-oil-supply-pushes-global-floating-oil-storage-almost-20-percent-glut-far

http://osnetdaily.com/2016/05/something-stunning-taking-place-off-coast-singapore/

You dont need to look far. Just across the causeway and our very own straits of Malacca. It will take years to clear the current epic oil glut. Oil price will remain low for the next two years at least.


Don;t know why people are still promoting oil counters here?