cksam

cksam | Joined since 2015-05-20

Investing Experience Advanced
Risk Profile Moderate

Formerly a corporate Treasurer in a Bank in NZ

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Stock

2018-02-20 23:48 | Report Abuse

For your information. I sold off all my Masteel share this morning. Good luck for those who still hold. I reckon at this moment many are waiting for the next QR and hope it will perform as SSteel. Fly after the QR report is out. That was in a different scenario. At that time the markets especially DOW was stable. I reckon we are in for another volatility drive. That's when risk of holding doesn't commensurate with return. It's like hoping to gain another RM 0.10 with the risk of losing RM 0.20.

Good luck to all Masteel investors. A bird in the bank is better than 2 in the bush. LOL

Stock

2018-02-20 22:17 | Report Abuse

Anyway for those who worship Warren Buffet the following article details the dirty secret behind Warren Buffet's billions. If you think he made his billions from value investing. You will be surprise and most followers are taken for a ride.

https://www.thenation.com/article/special-investigation-the-dirty-secret-behind-warren-buffetts-billions/

Don't be a naive sucker !!

Stock

2018-02-20 21:18 | Report Abuse

Anyway do anyone knows what is the SUCCESS rate of Stock Market TRADING/Investing?

i bet only a few actually knows the real success rate. Reports from brokerages and blogs often brag that Stock Trading is easy and success rate is more than 50% as some claimed. What i can say is that the actual success rate of trading is < 0.05% or less than 1 in 5000 will make money and able to make a decent living in StockTrading. What i am going to present to you below is an actual court case between SEC and TUCO trading in the U.S. Yup, actual P&L of a professional daytrading firm. You will be surprise by the statistics that are open to the public for scrutiny. See below:

Here is the link to the court case in the litigation of TUCO Trading

http://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2008/lr20500.htm

And here is the link to the actual documents on all the daytraders in TUCO Trading

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/heres-real-verifiable-...


To summarise the statistics.


206 traders

33 were profitable (16% of total)
7 had accounts > $50k (3% of total)

173 unprofitable (84% of total)
57 had losses over $10k - (28% of total)

So depending on how you view it, either 85% were unsuccessful, or only 3% were able to generate returns that could've sustained themselves (meaning 97% were unsuccessful). You could argue quite successfully that these traders were disadvantaged by a business model that pushed them to drain their accounts with commissions.

Proprietary or Prop firms are the best sources of daytrader success statistics. A prop firm is basically a broker that will loan you capital so that you can daytrade with an account and the commisions is lower than normal brokerages. Thus it can be said that TUCO is populated by full time professional daytraders.

So if those professional daytraders only achieved a 3% survival rate in a prop firm what do you think the survival rate of rookie daytraders like many investors here?

So for those that have been bragging about how much they made daytrading/investing i would say keep the statistics to yourself. Even in a professional daytrading firm like TUCO more than 97% of their traders are UNSUCCESSFUL. I bet many of you haven't seen actual statistics like this one.

Share Market is a bottomless pit for most short, mid and long term investors. It is always the 99% investors that feed the 1%.

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2018-02-20 21:11 | Report Abuse

Why am i saying stock price discovery is not the same as 1 + 1 = 2? If it is this simple then all analyst and Investment Banker will come to the same conclusion when calculating a stock's worth. Why every analyst and investment bankers come up with different numbers? Even though most of them use the popular Discounted Cash Flow model? What i can derive is that most investors depend on the 'Greater fool' model. In this model an investor hope to make money by selling to another fool who is willing to pay a higher price. Eventually what happens when the market runs out of greater fools?

Earnings reports don't move stocks. It's the expectations tat move stocks. Too many people miss this point. That is why many are confused why sometimes some stocks rise on bad earnings and fall on good earnings? This is because the market is a discounting mechanism. Thus the main thing that drives stock prices is anticipation. The anticipation of good results will bid stock prices up while bad results will cause stock prices to fall even before the reports are out. Thus the smart investors know that those stocks that are bid up before the report is out are most susceptible to fall when the report is out even if it is positive. In short it will always pay off to follow Wall Street's parlance 'Buy the rumor and sell the facts'

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2018-02-20 17:47 | Report Abuse

If share price movement is determined by calculating the PE and EPS then there will be no poor investors in Bursa. Who don't know 1 + 1 - 2 ? The problem is price discovery of share price is not that straight forward. There are a lot of factors determine the movement of share price namely earnings, growth prospect and so on.

The current share price of Masteel is a reflection of previous earnings. Hence the future price of Masteel will be determined by future earnings which we do not know. Thus it will be a wild guess among the investors. Some may say it will be better due to factor a or b or c. Only the insiders know what's happening in the company.

The daily movement of any share price is determined by 70% emotions and 30% fundamentals. Sometimes when expectations are overly bullish then this will create a buyers market where demand more than supply as in the case of Masteel now. Most investors are very bullish about the coming QR and expects it to be extremely good. However, i reckon the current share price of Masteel has somehow been reflected the good news. Or in short, it has already been priced in.

Thus i wonder what will happen if the coming QR profit is less rosy than expected? The share price of Masteel soon will drop drastically. I reckon this might e the scenario when i look at Masteel's price movement for the past few days. To me, it is more like distribution than accumulation.

Anyway, have a nice day and happy trading !!

Stock

2018-02-05 13:06 | Report Abuse

Sapnrg will most likely hit RM 0.65 by this week. Barring all unforeseen circumstances such as further selling off in Dow Jones (which i think it will). If so, it will create the self reinforcing negative feedback loop. Margin calls will once again be re-enacted.

Then it will come the real show. Panic selling. By then Sapnrg will be trading below RM 0.50.

Take care guys as for me i am out of the market completely two weeks ago. Again good luck to those HODLERs.

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2018-02-04 21:07 | Report Abuse

KLSE will dump at least 10 points tomorrow, Good luck to all HODLERS (crypto currency lingo for long term holders or Hold On to Dear Life - HODL)).

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2018-02-04 12:48 | Report Abuse

Let's look at the 10 year Kondratieff winter cycle below.

1988
1998
2008
2018

Interesting fact is that the lowest point for S & P 500 in 2008 was 666 points.

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2018-02-02 16:23 | Report Abuse

Epf dividend 7.5% for 2017?

Stock

2018-02-01 23:56 | Report Abuse

I reckon you guys better worry about how much Hengyuan' share price going to retrace going forward instead of hoping for better quarterly reports. Hengyuan is in a downtrend mode. I am not surprise to see Hengyuan share hitting an all time low in the next few weeks.

Recently Big Oil announced their intention to increase their capex due to the stability of oil prices. There is always a lag factor as it would be months before any commencement of work. As with government policies like the recent increase in interest rate by BNM. It will not affect the economy immediately as there is a lag in the implementation. Banks need to inform their customers on the commencement date of the increase. It may be weeks. Then only the effect of the interest rate will slowly takes effect.

Similarly, when Big Oil announced they are going to increase their capex, it will take months. By that time Hengyuan's share could have battered down heavily. Moreover a lot of investors thought that higher oil prices is always good for refineries but in actual fact the opposite happens. See below.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Low-Oil-Prices-Lead-To-U.S.-Refining-Boom.html

Again there is always the argument that they have a massive inventory build-up. A business model based on cutting production and selling inventories going forward is not sustainable. Eventually it will run out and what happen it couples with lower production? Earnings and Profit will be down right? Thus, don't depend on hope when investing in stock market. It will be a killer and you will be sent to the cleaners faster than you think. Better focus on the direction of Hengyuan's share price and the global stock market moving forward. In short, "Don't miss the forest for the trees"


You guys may be better off by reading the following article.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180201/


Currently, the risk for the global stock market crash is at the highest since the great depression in 1929, according to the article.

Stock

2018-02-01 23:35 | Report Abuse

Currently, the risk for the global stock market crash is at the highest since the great depression in 1929, according to the article.

Stock

2018-02-01 23:32 | Report Abuse

You guys may be better off by reading the following article.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180201/

Stock

2018-02-01 23:30 | Report Abuse

I reckon you guys better worry about how much Sapnrg going to retrace in the next couple of weeks instead of hoping for better quarterly reports. Sapnrg is in a downtrend mode. I am not surprise to see Sapnrg share hitting an all time low in the next two weeks.

Recently Big Oil announced their intention to increase their capex but that is another story. There is always a lag factor as it would be months before any commencement of work. As with government policies like the recent increase in interest rate by BNM. It will not affect the economy immediately as there is a lag in the implementation. Banks need to inform their customers on the commencement date of the increase. It may be weeks. Then only the effect of the interest rate will slowly takes effect.

Similarly, when Big Oil announced they are going to increase their capex, it will take months. By that time Sapnrg's share could have battered down heavily maybe down to below RM 0.60.

Thus, don't depend on hope when investing in stock market. It will kill you. Better focus on the direction of Sapnrg's share price. "Don't miss the forest for the trees"

Stock

2017-12-15 23:55 | Report Abuse

Look for long term in Sapnrg.I reckon it's significant E&P assets will make it a major Malaysian gas producer in the coming years. Hence diversifying from O&G contracts and moving into upstream O&G production.

http://www.sapuraenergy.com/sapura-ep-keeping-low-profile-high-rewards/

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2017/12/11/ta-securities-challenges-remain-sapura-energy/

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2017-12-15 19:46 | Report Abuse

In share market it is always profitable to bet on the other side. If everyone is selling then we should be buying. Not when everyone is buying and we also join in the buying. Like bitcoin it is currently in a mania stage, equivalent to the Dutch Tulips mania. During the Dutch tulips mania a stalk of tulip can buy you a piece of land.Similar to today's bitcoin. One bitcoin equals about US$17,000.00 or about RM 73,000. Up from about US$ 0.10 a few years ago. It will not end well for bitcoin investors and a lot of them is going to lose everything when its price collapses at a later stage.

This year bitcoin has been going up exponentially. In order to go up further the inflow of money must also grow exponentially. If not it will come crashing down as are no more new buyers or investors to support the high price.

So why do we want to buy when stocks are going up and getting expensive? Is it because it is a no brainer to chase the hottest stocks for instant profits? Why not buy when there is a huge discount at current price? When shopping we always look for the best bargain or the cheapest price. What an irony?

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2017-12-14 12:51 | Report Abuse

I reckon the selling is overdone. Drop in profits have already priced into the stock. Now the selling is due to margin calls and panic selling by retailers. Today's volume due is 294 million shares. It seems to be holding well.

Thus selling will be tapering off by today. Sapnrg is ripe for a huge rebound soon as the bottom is tested several times. Some big players are just waiting and collect at RM 0.80. Nevertheless you might see a big push coming soon with huge volume.

Just remember Sapnrg might turnaround as it starts selling gas to Petronas this quarter. See below.


https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/sapuraenergy-b15-offshore-field-on...

Petronas is the buyer.

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/sapurakencana-inks-gas-sales-agree...

Don't be influenced by those doom sayers. Equating Sapnrg to UMW, KNM, Perisai and so on. Jus buy and keep till next quarter results.

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2017-11-25 13:16 | Report Abuse

Nothing wrong with Senergy. Just got Fuc**d !!!

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2017-11-20 20:37 | Report Abuse

The main issue is if Senergy is so good then why MM is selling everything and getting out?
There must be something that he knows that we do not. Right?

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2017-11-20 19:39 | Report Abuse

From the top in 26/09/2017 and 01/11/2017 it looks like Senergy formed a double top. If that is so then i reckon on the
next leg down Senergy is able to touch RM 1.03 - RM 1.05 range. MM's has just started liquidating his share and from
the past 4 days where the volume was the biggest it only total 67 million shares. The problem is not all of those are MM's shares.
There are other sellers as well. Thus i reckon there are still a very big block of MM shares that are yet to be liquidated.

Senergy 's shares will keep going down unless there are big players willing to absorb or catch a falling knife. There will be rebounds
on the way down but i doubt they will be long live. Better stay out and remember the global stock markets are under pressure especially Nikkei 225. Thus KLCI will be under pressure as well when global stock markets turned bearish.

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2017-11-20 17:22 | Report Abuse

Playing with C shares is like playing with fire. Purely gambling and controlled by the issuing house like Macquarie Bank. They will squeeze the shit out of you by pressing the mother share. You might lose 100% of your capital if you are not careful. Most of the time those who play call warrants lose their pants.

Since Senergy is on the downtrend expect call warrants to go down further. Even when Senergy rebounds at a later date call warrants will not rebound much due to the negative or discounted conversion price. The issuing bank will make sure you fellows cannot make money out of them. If the issuing bank allows the price to appreciate too much they will have to take the losses.

Small flies like us cannot fight them as they are holding vast quantity and can unload them anytime they want in order to push down the price. Call warrants are a bloody scam.

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2017-11-20 16:58 | Report Abuse

what is the conversion price and maturity date for C50?

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2017-11-08 17:26 | Report Abuse

You must not become emotional in the market if not the more you will lose. Just stay cool.

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2017-11-08 17:24 | Report Abuse

goodluck999, how many lots of xox do you hold? Heck, these few days you the main promoter. Better just keep quiet and look at the prices. The more you promote the further the price will drop. It's karma.

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2017-10-23 13:14 | Report Abuse

May i know what is the conversion like for Connect-pa ?

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2017-10-11 09:32 | Report Abuse

Well seems like we have some really good news here, As said yesterday most of the volume or 65% was done at RM 0.012. Today seems to be the continuation of the trend and volume considered very healthy with about 8 million shares done within half an hour of trading.

In the past run up, volume already disappeared in the second day of play but this time volume not only persist but getting bigger. Hence, i can say that this time XOX is on fire and the next target shall be RM 0.135.If you are smart enough then load up on XOX before it is too late or you will miss the boat.

Stock

2017-10-10 15:34 | Report Abuse

Simple fact is Macquarie bank their 30 million shares between 0.095 to 0.010. So there is opportunity cost relating to this transaction namely interest rate foregone. Macquarie bank is one of the crudest stock manipulator around. Look at how they manipulate Airasia and Airasia-X call warrants, most investors in their call warrants get wipe out.

So do you think Macquarie will stay put and wait for Eddie Chai to move the stock? if you think that's the way then you people need to go for stocks re-education 101 again. They have been holding XOX shares for almost one year and they cannot afford to let the interest costs keep running up. XOX share will have to be move up sooner or later.

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2017-10-10 15:23 | Report Abuse

XOX is in consolidation phase. Should be up before end of second session trading or 4.45 pm.
Don't need to fret about it. Majority of the volume done @0.12. Should be a good sign. Stocks don;t go up in a straight line. More like a zig-zag manner. So just stay cool and let it run. Ignore all the negative vibe.

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2017-08-05 18:31 | Report Abuse

Heck, who is so stupid to launder 'dirty money' through Bursa? Even if i have RM 58 million 'clean money' i won't invest it using my personal name. I will do it through an investment holding company. When you do it with a company you can do wonders with the accounts.

Anyway if you are a good businessman Income Tax is your last concern. Your utmost consideration is how to improve revenue. Without revenue there is no income and no income there will be no income tax. As an investment holding company your main task is to search for higher yield. Yes, your main job is to move assets from lower to higher yield. Once you achieved profitability then only comes how much income tax you decide to pay, If you decide to pay lower income tax then lower the profit by increasing the costs.

I don't know if you fellows notice or not. In the last few years Private Placements has become one of the most popular means for fund raising in Bursa. Private placement is also called equity financing thus does not incur debts. Other advantages includes it can make multiple placements each year which also subjected to manipulation by way of preference and discounts over the latest market price.

Unlike rights issue where a company can only issue once every few years and SC is very strict over its issuance. When a company raise funds through rights issue it has not much advantage in terms pricing and also share the risk with investors. The risk is being under-subscribed. Since the price of rights issue is pre-determined the management cannot do much over it.The only way to make the rights issue more attractive is to play up the mother share. Once the mother share is way above the rights issue then it will be over-subscribed many times. But this will cost them a lot of money.

Whereas if they utilize PP they have the advantage of knowing the price fixing date. Without the public knowing the price fixing date they can suppress or push up the share price up to their whims and fancy. Like what happened to Hibiscus now, they have been suppressing the share price for the past 2 months. Whenever the share price move up a bit suddenly someone will throw out a couple of million shares. Thus when the announcement was made yesterday the public only knew that price fixed at RM 0.385. Thus they are already in a profitable position compared to most of the retail folks who are holding above the RM 0.405 level.

So who has the advantage? Thus using other means like rights issue to raise fund is not really a bad decision as it does not dilute Hibiscus NOSH too much. If Hibiscus were to embark on another form of financing such as bank loan or bridging finance, there are also advantages associated with it. You see companies can expense or netting off its interest cost. When Hibiscus net off the interest cost from banks then it will reduce its income Tax and hence increase profit.

So, why do you still want to worry about Income Tax?

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2017-08-05 13:22 | Report Abuse

Hahaha ! why 5.8% not attractive? If you check around the banks the average FD rate is arounf 3.1% but if you have about RM 58 million (when not subscribed to PP) probably you might get 3.6%. If the investor is smart and take up all the PP at RM 0.385 and sell in in a staggered manner over a month. He will be getting a return of RM 3.364 million provided the price maintains at RM 0.405. Anything above will be a bonus.

After liquidating all and with a capital of RM 61.364 million, he can now put back into the FD to earn another 3.6% for the rest of the year. Isn't the total return is close to 9.4% in the end? So the rich gets richer and retail investors gets poorer !! Am i right. Anyhow the fixing price is almost within my expectation of RM 0.36 - RM 0.38.

You will never know, the bastards in the management might issue another PP by end of the year and again will benefit their cronies.As said if Hibiscus share wants to move up it will have to trade 50 - 100 million shares for a few days so as to absorbed the bloated 10% PP shares which is 144 million in total. Even if Hibiscus share were to go down, their holding cost is just RM 0.385 which is way cheaper then most of you. When the share price recovers those bastards are the ones to benefit first.

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2017-07-28 17:11 | Report Abuse

I will not buy Hibiscus anytime now because there are too many people trapped in this share. Thanks to those who keep promoting it here. Hibiscus share price will only go up as i said earlier when trading volume reached 50 - 100 million a day for few days.

If not there will be huge resistance along the way as those who got stuck earlier will liquidate. You see Hibiscus share has been in consolidation since March this year and there is no guarantee it will go up after this. Take a look at Connect chart. It also starts consolidating since March and by right should be marching upward. But it zoomed down this week from RM 0.30 to the low of RM 0.235. I am not saying Hibiscus share will also zoom down soon but the caution is sometimes consolidation might result in an upward or downward move. There is no guarantee. That;s why i am waiting. It it is zooming upwards with volume then i will join in. But if it is zooming downwards then i shall stay in the sideline and wait for the next signal.

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2017-07-28 16:05 | Report Abuse

Just look at how they wacked MRCB, Ekovest, IWcity and Malton. Like a YOYO. I can say that those who touched these counters have their fingers burnt badly. Not once but few times from their up and downs manipulation of the share prices recently. All because of Bandar Malaysia.

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2017-07-28 15:59 | Report Abuse

Now i hold zero stocks only cash. I am waiting for the right oppurtunity. I am interested in Hibiscus is because this stock is going to give me a handsome return one day. The main thing is timing. I am waiting.

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2017-07-28 15:57 | Report Abuse

Normally when i scan for stocks to monitor, i usually look for depressed stocks. Those are the stocks the operators played the retail investors left and right. Meaning today they act as buyers but next week they become sellers. They will frustrate investors and incur maximum pain to them psychologically. Then i be on the operators side seeing how they whack investors like you fellows. They will play you fellows upside down until you fellows dont know what to do. If there are still interest in the share then they will further depressed it until there is no more interest.

Then only they will start moving up the share and by now the selling pressure has lessen. Moving the share price up is a piece of cake now. When interest starts to come back then they will start unloading again. So retail investors will start chasing up the stock while the operators slowly unload them. It will come a time when there is no more suckers to buy higher. Stock prices will only move up when there are suckers buying at higher prices from other suckers. So when there is no more suckers then what will happen to the share price? Free fall !!

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2017-07-28 15:48 | Report Abuse

In this case i don;t see any insiders are buying Hibiscus shares. If they do then it will be announced in the Bursa announcement. Or you can check under Disclosures above if there are any corporate movement by insiders. There is no free lunch in the stock market. You need to do a lot of homework. Heck if it is as easy as 1 + 1 =2 then who wants to work? Why not just sit down and press at some buttons and comes the profit. LOL

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2017-07-28 15:37 | Report Abuse

Anyway just to share with you fellows. I am not a shareholder of Hibiscus. I just give you guys an example. These operators are bastards i can tell you. I bought Connect shares back in 2015. My main reason is it dropped from about RM 0.38 and also its NOSH is about 200 million then. I started buying when it dropped to RM 0.20 and averaged till it was RM 0.14. It consolidated for a few months before resumed its retracement. It kept dropping until it was RM 0.085.

That was the worst when it announced it lost money in the last quarter. But after analyzing the accounts i found that it lost money because it invested in a plant expansion in Shenzhen, China to boost capacity. I then bought another 300 lots to average my 100 lots i bought earlier with an average price of RM 0.16. So basically my average price has been brought down to about RM 0.105.

Then on May last year they call for further funding through issuing Preference shares i.e PA with free warrants. The 3rd quarter they do make some profit. I subscribed and waited. Somewhere in September ACE capital bought in to become the major shareholder. And then in November i noticed two of their major share holders from ACE capital are buying about 40 million shares in the open market. They (Mr Chang and Tan Sri Fuzi) are buying under their own names. By the way Tan Sri Fuzi was the Chief Secretary to the Government and sits on the board of a few public listed companies. That alone constitute about 20% of the NOSH.

When insiders are buying into their own company because there is only one reason. They bloody have insider information and the share price is going rocket up soon. True to from in the next few months Connect went up to as high as RM 0.33. The connect-pa went up from RM 0.025 to RM 0.235. More than 1000% and better still the free warrant went up to RM 0.205.

So basically i made more than 800% from the PA and more than 200% from the mother. All in all i make a nice 6 figure from this trade. So, the lesson to learn is that it is safer to buy when insiders are buying and not selling.

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2017-07-28 13:40 | Report Abuse

I reckon for the latest issue of PP at 10% of total NOSH with a 10% discount their costs should be somewhere RM 0.36 to RM 0.38. So they have nothing to lose even with the latest PP. Normally they will press down the price of the share so as to:

1) get better price when market at low
2) scare the shit out of retail investors so that they will panic and unload more for them to collect.

Currently it is a psychological game and if you want to win you must know how to read their mind. What is their next move. If you think that RM 0.40 is a strong support they can press down the price below RM 0.40. Retail Investors wi ll then panic and dump their shares. In short they will inflict the maximum pain into retail investors because all they have is time and money. They can wait but can all you fellows here wait?

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2017-07-27 23:48 | Report Abuse

Hello, you people should stop blaming everything on the operators. This is not how operators operate by the way. As of June this year Hibiscus's NOSH is 1.441 billion shares. Plus the recent 10% PP the NOSH should ballooned to 1.581 billion shares? Do you know how many lot of shares are there or not?

Which operator is so stupid trying to push up the share price of Hibiscus k owing that it has 1.581 billion shares outstanding? Why not they look for some other share that have less than 200 million shares to manipulate? It will cause them less headache and money.

This is the consequence of having no debt by continuously issuing Private Placements. It will bloat the NOSH. look at last year's private placements below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/additionalListing/5199.jsp

Last year alone it issue about 350 million shares for Private Placement. Look at the average price about RM 0.20. So, who are the fools in the end? The retail investors !!! That is why whenever the price go up they will unload their shares which gave them more than 100% profit. So, you have to wait until some of them finish unloading then only Hibiscus shares can go up. If not sadly to say it will be f&&king difficult. For Hibiscus share to sustain its upward momentum, it will have to trade at least 50 to 100 million shares for days in order to absorb the selling volume. If not this sideway trend will continue indefinitely.

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2017-07-23 15:58 | Report Abuse

If stock market investment is as easy as 1 + 1 = 2 then everybody is rich. Why almost everyone or 99.999% of the investors still chasing after the elusive profit? A mini market operator also has trouble forecasting his revenue and profit for the following week let alone next month?

So why are you guys so confident in forecasting Hibiscus's revenue and profit for the last 3 months? Isn't running a mini market operation is much less complex then an Oil & Gas outfit? Put it this way certainty in any event decreases as the time line increases. In simple terms we are more incline to know where we will be in the next one or two days then the next one or two months. This is because we know our schedules better in the next 48 hours rather than 60 days later. So how can you forecast a company's revenue for the past 90 days? The answer is unless you are an insider.

Similarly, it would be foolish to trust any Investment bank's forecast on the Target price. I am sure many here have been burned by their various target price set by different investment banks in Hibiscus's target price. They are many hundreds of different valuation models and metrics used to determine future price of an asset. Unfortunately they all yield different value for the same asset. And most commonly used are DCF (discounted cash flow) or DDF (discounted dividend flow), CAPM (capital asset pricing model) and relative valuation method.

I am sure by now most of you knew that the target price set by CIMB will be different from Public Bank or Kenanga Investment Bank for that matter. Take for example DCF which is a favorite among the IBs. But there are disadvantages in using this approach such as:

1) requires much more inputs and information than other methods.
3) these inputs and information can be manipulated by the analysts to provide the preferred end result.

In economics, if you put three economist in a room they will come out with four ideas. Likewise if you put three stock analysts in a room they will come out with four valuations or target price.

If you follow blindly the target price set by the investment banks then you will be sent to the cleaners sooner or later. No need to look too far. When Hibiscus's share price was trading at RM 2.50 in March 2014 what was the average price target set by the investment banks? RM 3.00, RM 3.50, RM 4.00 and even RM 5.00. I still remember when UMWOG then was trading at RM 4.63 back in February 2014, some investment banks set their target price as high as RM 6 to RM 8. So what happen to those poor souls that bought all the way down from RM 4.63. Today it only close RM 0.325 !!!

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2017-07-21 22:55 | Report Abuse

A Must Read article.

An excellent article by HSBC on "Bracing for Oil, Food and Financial crash in 2018". This article also explains why the world is heading for a supply crunch and higher demand in the coming years. This would lead to higher prices but will not be sustainable and would lead crashes in the global economy contrary to many who thought higher prices of oil is here to stay when supply diminish coupled with higher demand for oil in the future.

http://www.mena-forum.com/22550-2/

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2017-07-21 16:58 | Report Abuse

Hello, don't need to be too emotional. You can look back at my comments. I never ask people not to buy Hibiscus and i also never condemn Hibiscus's fundamentals or the stock. I merely ask people to be caution and be careful before commit to buying. There are too much promotion and thus will lead newbies into making uninformed decisions.

For example before the last quarter results was out promoters here already declaring Hibiscus is going to make record profits due to high oil price traded during the last quarter. But somehow oil production by Hibiscus dropped by more than 25%. Thus the profit earned is much lower than anticipated. Not only that the cost of production also went up from USD 13 to USD 15. So who is responsible for the losses incurred to newbies who bought at the high last month?

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2017-07-21 13:52 | Report Abuse

Simple, if the investors here are so confident about Hibiscus then no need to promote it too excessively. I pity those naive investors who kept buying from RM 0,52 till to today's RM 0.405. Well it is their hard earned money and what i am doing is merely a service to educate them so that they do not fell into their trap again and again.

I bet there are not many "investors" dare to look into their "trade book" and count their losses for the last 3 years. Most of them i would say are "fully invested" as of now. They are waiting for the miracle "one magical trade" whereby it will enable them to recover all their losses for the past three years.

I am merely talking facts because i have been there done that on what the investors here are experiencing. If you want to win the most important thing is to be able to detach your emotions from the market. One good indication is to avoid spending too much time on the computer. I only check the prices three times a day opening, lunch break and closing to avoid getting emotionally involved.
If you can do this then your winnings will automatically come because you trade right..

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2017-07-21 13:30 | Report Abuse

People here still have the guts to call themselves "investors" and yet check on oil and Hibiscus price every minute. What a contradiction !!!

I would like to ask. What is the difference when a rapist rape a girl and got caught appeared in court. Telling the judge he merely make love to her instead of raping her. So what is the difference if those people here kept telling us they are "investors" and yet cannot discipline themselves by checking on the prices like a day trader?

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2017-07-17 16:34 | Report Abuse

You guys should have bought Umwog. Up 29.82% almost limit up. Instead of getting frustrated here everyday !! Hoping for Brent to go up everyday. Yet when Brrent shoot up Hibiscus share either stagnant or retreat. Heck !! why waste time here.

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2017-07-13 19:16 | Report Abuse

I reckon you people should be careful because the same people who promote Hibiscus also promote Perisai. Just go to Perisai thread and you can see. They are still promoting Perisai even though it has drop to RM 0.045 and going to be issued PN17 soon.

Same here, they are still talking up the company and asking people to top up. Take a look at Perisai's fundamentals before you plunge in. I pity those investors that have been following their advise to buy from RM 0.20s till TM 0.045 today.