Hibiscus investors. Be careful for what you wish for. As said earlier if Hibiscus breaks RM 0.525 there big trouble ahead. From chartwise, it looks like a double top has been formed. If it is true then the next target should be around RM 0.46. If it doesn;t hold at 0.46 then we should be able to see RM 0.36.

Looks like RM 0.50 cannot hold today. Watch Out !!

Wonder if you guys know what is contango and backwardation in commodities trading? Contango is a situation where traders view the future price of oil say 6 months into the future will be higher than the current spot price. Backwardation is the reverse where future price will be expected to be lower than the current spot price. When oil was trading at about $30 it was a contango situation because the market viewed that the spot price for oil can no longer go lower and thus future price of oil will be going up.

This help explained why hedge funds buying crude oil by the container load and store them at sea last year. Somtimes they store it for up to a year as their cost of storage is the rental of the VLCC. Now they are profiting from the crude oil they have bought and stored at sea.

see below.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-oil-storage-idUSKCN0YA129


Thus, if the contango is coming down then crude oil will be moving towards backwardation. Just wonder how is oil price going to recover if it is moving towards backwardation?

Another interesting read on why the current OPEC cut is getting nowhere. Why another cut is on the way to prevent the current price from collapsing.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/oils-promised-land-slips-away-on-opec-leaks/


Fracking technology is going global and winning the oil war.The next biggest threat to OPEC.

https://www.aiche.org/chenected/2016/01/global-spread-advanced-fracking-technology-winning-oil-war

Fracking breakeven cost has come down to $45 and getting lower.

https://www.equities.com/news/american-fracking-companies-keeping-their-ducs-in-a-row

https://energyindepth.org/national/efficiencies-reducing-fracking-cost-shale-thrive-amid-low-prices/

Don't expect too much from today's OPEC report. The writing is already on the wall. Oil market is not rebalancing !!

The current cut seems not deep enough. Thus another cut in the 2nd half is on the way and will be at the expense of OPEC members. The winners are the shale producers. See below.


http://energyfuse.org/opec-market-doesnt-rebalance/#.WJ3JVloCLVc.twitter


If you are a long term holder then you don't need to worry until June where the second cut is due. Relax and go for fishing or a holiday and come back in June to look at the market.

Cheers

What will OPEC do if the market doesn't rebalance?

The current cut seems not deep enough. Thus another cut in the 2nd half is on the way and will be at the expense of OPEC members. The winners are the shale producers. See below.


http://energyfuse.org/opec-market-doesnt-rebalance/#.WJ3JVloCLVc.twitter


How long will the current scenario last as shown below?

Increased Supply + Lower Demand = Higher Prices

Add in the sale of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the U.S of 10 million barrels starting end of this month. Will oil price end well in the near and mid term?

How is this going to affect oil price in the next few weeks?

https://energy.gov/fe/articles/doe-plans-mandated-sale-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve

This sale is in anticipation of higher shale oil production and lower demand for oil in the near future.

Oil price fall on U.S glut and weakening China demand.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN15N04P

U.S facing falling gasoline demand in pump, first time in 5 years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-refineries-results-idUSKBN15K0F7

Beware !! Hedge funds loaded with long futures contract up till their eyeballs plus record gasoline products in the U.S might cause a big dip in oil price.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Gasoline-Glut-Could-Ruin-The-Oil-Price-Party.html

Watch out guys !! From the price-volume tracking, you can see that the strongest support is at RM 0.525 where 19.95 million shares traded. i reckon if this price is broken then we will revisit RM 0.48 soon. In summary, i reckon there is a big probability that there will be a big selloff in the afternoon.

Trade with cautious !!

Below RM 0.52 there is virtually no support !!

If i am not wrong I reckon Hibiscus is in for some big trouble. Big distribution is going on.

Anyway below is the record of shareholders acquiring and disposing of Hibiscus shares. There seems to be no transactions involving any of our local funds like EPF, KWAP, PNB and so on. See below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchsh/5199.jsp?type=Acquisitions

If they raised funds through a rights issue of say (500 million to 1 billion shares) with a free warrant between January to October 2016, when Hibiscus shares was trading around RM 0.18 to RM 0.20. Then i would say it will be for mutual benefit. The problem is Hibiscus cannot do so due to conditions set by Securities Commision. At that time its status was still SPAC and of course SC will onlyt allow additional fund raising until they find a profitable business venture. Just take a look at SONA the other O & G SPAC which was out of luck.

As for records, almost all of their (except one) private placements was done before October 2016. Just before the share price move in October 2016 when the Anusuria concession was made known to the public. So is this fair to all the small investors of Hibiscus? Is this insider trading? That is why i am not holding a single lot of Hibuscus shares.

About 4.88% or 53 million shares (between May and June 2016) were issued to Ping Petroleum or the other part owner of Anasuria cluster. Why issue so much shares? No money to pay for the concession? See below.


http://klse.i3investor.com/additionalListing/5199/24-May-2016/13764_3163285591.jsp

Quite a lot of funds raised through private placements. That's why company has no debt but to enlarge company shares through dilusion. Private placements largest to Polo Resources.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/additionalListing/5199.jsp

Private placements always done at the disadvantage of small investors because they normally get 10% discount at the end of the 5 days moving average of daily closing at the designated date.

Company shares explode from about 500 million in 2014 to about 1.44 billion as of December 2016. Polo's average price paid if i am not mistaken is about RM 0.20.

Hibiscus has not paid any dividen since 2011

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/5199.jsp?type=last10fy

Summary of corporate action by Kenneth Pereiea can be seen below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchdr/5199.jsp

Another risk factor that needs consideratiom is that most of Hibiscus's cash flow is coming from Anasuria. If this is the only source then any hiccups in the oil production from Anasuria will spell disaster for Hibiscus's cash slow and hence profit and share price.

Hibiscus investors from what i see here are geting really emotional. I reckon many have sleepless nights worrying about what is the price of oil and Dow Jones traded overnight which will inevitably influence the trading price of Hibiscus the next morning. I like to highlight that the price discovery of oil is very complicated. It is not just the normal factors that influence the demand and supply of oil will cause a shift in the price of oil. There are geo-political, weather, human factors like strike, pipe bursting, OPEC and so on that intersects to in order to arrive at an equilibrium prices.

According to the book The Geology of Petroluem, there are more than 20 factors affects the price of oil and 25 different variables that can affect the discovery of productive oil wells. It further reierate that so far there is NO method that can be used to determine whether there is oil in any exploration. Even if Hibiscus have bought another acreage (in petroluem lingo for rights) around the vicinity of anasuria doesn't mean it will automatically be a productive acreage. Another point is that there is no sure method of determining the exact oil reserves in those wells. Most of them are estimations at best.

As for Hibiscus, even though it might hit a jackpot after acquiring Anasuria from Shell and Exxon there are other factors that also need to take into consideration in terms of financial. Upon looking at the annual report you can see that Hibiscus outstanding shares (NOSH) has grown almost from 500 million shares in 2014 to 1.44 billion shares in 2016. So who benefits from the increased of the number shares? Obviously those who bought it through private placements i.e polo resoures, Md Zulkifle and others. Not you and me that's for sure. If i am not mistaken polo resources average price is RM 0.205. They are holding about 138 million shares.

Secondly if you look at the book value of Hibiscus. It is only valued at RM 0.147 but the current market price of Hibiscus is RM 0.47 which is about 3.5x the book value. If you look into the Ben Graham's book on security analysis it is preferably to buy a stock when the share price is traded below its book value. So why the rush to buy? This is because whenever a share price is overvalued due to some euphoric buying, it will alwat "revert to the mean". This is because some smart money start dumping while the dumb money picks it up.

That means the share price will drop back to the mean which is the true value. Similarly if there is a sudden bad news like missing expected profit target investors will panic sell the stock. It goes on until it is over done and the share once again traded below the true value. Thus sooner or later some smart money will start buying and push the share price up back to the mean.

So, why worry if you are a long term investor and need to worry about the oil price, Dow jones, KLCI or Hibiscus daily price gyrations. Do your homework to acertain the rough value of Hibiscus and you can sleep well. As indicated by the Geology of Petroluem there are more than 20 variables influencing the price of oil. How can you sleep if you take all those factor into consideration which will eventually affects the price of oil and Hisbiscus share price?

To see the desperation of Saudi Arabia, look at the following.

Saudi has hiked import duties as follows immediately:

*F&B : upto 500% - from flat 5%.

*Fertilizers: 140% - from 5% to 12%.

*Chemicals: 400% - from 5% to 20%.

*Consumer goods like tissues, soaps, health care etc: 200% to 400%- from 5% to 10-20%.

*Building materials like gypsum, paints, door & electrical accessories, electric cables etc : 140-200%-from 5% to 12-15%

This is the link from Price Waterhouse.

http://www.pwc.com/m1/en/services/tax/me-tax-legal-news/2017/higher-customs-duties-for-193-products-immediate-effect.html


You tell me even mighty Saudi Arabia is in trouble. What about other oil producing countries?

By the way the price action of Hibiscus, it seems like people are very cautious most probably it is underperforming. Look at other O & G counters like SKpetro, KNM, UMWOG, Barakah, Icon, Alam, Perisai and so on. All are either in the red or not moving. Thus eventhough oil price went up by more than 2%, it is of no use. As I have already said investors are already sick and tired of Saudi Arabia's jaw boning the oil market hopefully to push up the price psychologically. It doesn't work anymore as Saudi Arabia need to push up the price of oil more than anyone else. In short Saudi Arabia is Desperate as its Forex reserves dropped from SAR 2.8 trillion in August 2014 to SAR 2,0 trillion in Nov 2016. See below.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/foreign-exchange-reserves

It is also running a gigantic budget deficit os 15% to GDP. Before 2014 Saudi Arabia was running about +13.6% in 2012 and +6.5% in 2013 budget surplus. Suddenly in 2014 due to the oil price carnage it is already running a huge budget deficit. See below.


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/government-budget

It can only go on until 2022 when its forex reserves will be depleted. It need at least $65 to balance its budget if not there will again carnage in its foreign exchange depletion. Same as Malaysia running a budget deficit for years and depleting Forex reserves from $ 126 billion to about $94 billion recently due to the selling of USD to support the ringgit.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/foreign-exchange-reserves


Many expected it to shoot up to at least RM 0.50 on opening but did not. To me, i reckon there are some people distributing the stocks at the moment. Any attempt to gobble up the sellers reciprocated with more sellers. Thus this shows buyers are already exhausted and it may just be anytime the sellers going to unload a huge volume. I reckon it will be after lunch when the low of the day of RM 0.46 is taken out. There may be panic selling by retail investors hoping to get out unscratched before CNY and thus Hibiscus might be in RED in the afternoon.

So Good Luck in your investments

Don't be too optimistic and excited over the rise in oil price. As said after Indonesia being kick out of Opec there is a vacumm of 722,000 barrels to be filled. Suppose if Opec agreed to cut (if and only they agree unanimously) 1.6 - 1.8 million b/p at tommorow's meeting this only boils down to about 1 million b/p. World crude oil production is in the region of 80 million b/p while Kazakhstan's Kashagan oil field will add another 370,000 b/d to its export this year. So, how much will be the actual cut without taking into effect of increasing U.Shale oil and Iran's aim to increased it's crude oil production to 4 million barrels/day this year. See below

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-29/iran-says-it-won-t-cut-oil-production-as-talks-remain-deadlocked

If you are looking at just Hibiscus and the oil price you huys are missing the big picture or simply "can't see the forest for the trees". You are not looking at the macro events instead of concentrating on micro ones. You all should find out why crude oil prices are not recovering after more than two years of slump?

Oil price no longer relates inversely with the economy. That means low oil price helps promote economic growth is no longer valid. In 2008 when crude oil was trading at about USD 140 per barrel it crippled many economies as it is very difficult to be profitable. Subsequently it took a dive to about USD 30 per barrel. Historically low oil price promote economic growth but this time the global economic growth can best be said anemic. Why? The following are some of the answers.

1. Huge debts. When the going was good a lot of O & G take up a lot of debts to incease production and hence capital expansion. Currently there are nore then $3 trillion of debts sloushing around the O & G sector. See below.

https://www.ft.com/content/d48b1922-eadd-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8

Many O & G companies even have problem paying for interest payments and don't tal about the principal. Hence they havreto continue pumping so as to cover their expenses each month irrespective of the oil price.

Not only O&G companies are affected. Consumers and government are also heaviily in debt. Take the U.S for instance, as of March 2016, household debts stands at $12.25 trillion while it's government debt is close to $20 trillion. How can Trump turn around the US economy in 8 years (assuming two terms) for the damage was done for the past 40 years? Those cock and bull story about Trump is the saviour of the U.S never gives a second thought about the mountain of debts Trump is facing. He seems wanted to do every thing so the to make "AMERICA GREAT" again.
But How?

Where is he going to get the cash to start up all the infrastructure projects? How is he going to bring back jobs to the U.S asking U.S corporations to relocate their manufacturing back to the U.S? How are they going to manufacture goods cheaply for export when the minimum wage of $7.25 per hour. Can they compete with manufacturers from emerging markets where wages cost less tha $1 per hour? Talk cock only lah this Trump effect.


2. The world economy is already in dire straits. Every economic growth policies has been tries i.e ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). NIRP (negative interest rate policy), artificially pumping up the stock market via share buy back so that companies can borrow more and so on no longer work. When demand side is not working due to the lower spending power of consumers due to inflation, stagnant wages, increasing taxes and so on. How can oil price recover when every tom dick and harry is cutting expenses and tightening their belts? Where is the demand for good end services and oil coming from? When there is no demand for tangible goods then how can it help promote economic growth?

I rest my case if you guys still think that oil is going to recover back to $80, $90 or even $100. Good luck on your speculation on our O & G counters without looking at the global scenario.

All you investors/gamblers here better stop your 'screen staring' routine. It is the main culprit for causing your emotions to roller coaster. Once you are in this emotional state you cannot differentiate whether the market is trending up or down. You are confused what state the market is in at the moment whether it is trending long term, intermediate or short term.

You people cannot tell whether a dip in thecurrent stock price is due to profit taking or the market is making a significant new low or maybe breaking new support. You people just trying to find excuses to cover your wrong judgements whether it's due to a dip in Brent price, Trump inaguration, shark selling, weather in North sea, shale oil ramping up productiom, conflict in Iraq, record oil pumpimg by Iran, new oil production from Giant Kazakhstan oilfield (see below),

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Kazakhstans-Giant-Oil-Field-Set-To-Open-In-2016.html


Opec cutting production, strong US dollar, increase world demand of oil due to population growth, rig count decreasing/increasing, strike in PetroBras cause supply reduction, Nigeria cutting production due to rebel attacks on pipelines, economic chaos in Venezuala halting oil production, demand in Europe is increasing sue to improving economy, vehicles are becoming more efficient i.e hybrid and electric vehicles sales are booming, oil majors are increasing investment in exploration activities due to expectations in oil price recovery over the next few years, Shell is selling oil assets globally to reduce debts, Angola replaces Nigeria as the largest oil producer in Africa in 2016 and blah blah blah.

You see the above are some of the reasons affecting the demand and supply curve of oil. I am just wondering how can you guys predict the forward price of oil using a few simple reasoning? Oil price movement is a very complex thing. Volatility can be due to many factors as above. As for the current oil price recovery from the lows of USD 40s last year it is mostly due to the 'psycholigically effect'. It seems like Saudi Arabia has been calling the shots since last year.

Whenever its oil minister says the current oil price is not reflecting the true value the price of oil then will shoot up. Whenever oil price goes for some serious dip, Saudi Arabia will always come up with some cock and bull story (Opec production cut) so as to create some support for the oil price. However the market is already sick and tired by the psychological manipulation by Saudi Arabia. It still remain to be seen how they are going to get their act together as how much each Opec members required to cut back production. See below.

Opec is expecting to cut between 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels per day from its production. But the problem is Indonesia has just been kick out of Opec recently and this means there is already a 722,000 barrels/day (Indonesia daily production) cut in Opec production. Thus this leaves roughly only about 500,000 to 700,000 barrel/day cut divided among the Opec members. So how much will this roughly 0.5 million barrels/day affects the oil price? So, not much of a cut isn't it?Minimal i would say maybe it will be a knee jerk reaction on Monday but in the medium term oil price will again move downwards to reflect its true value by the intersection of supply and demand forces.

Other factors include Opec Nov output rises to 34.06 million b/p up from 33.84 million b/d or up 220,000 per day. Iran has also been increasing its output while Libya, Nigeria and Angola gets exemption from cutting their oil production. Iraq gets upset because it is not getting an exemption. So how will this going to workout on who is going to cut how much this Sunday?

You tell me?

Charles Nenner the Geo-political analyst correctly predicted there will be no crash in 2016 but in 2017 the market's whole bottom will fall out. Watch out.... see below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qhBcCwa2D4

For those who still want to hold long term oil related stocks.

https://www.dezeen.com/2016/10/10/germany-ban-internal-combustion-engine-2030-bundesrat-support-electric-cars-design-technology/

http://www.hybridcars.com/german-lawmakers-vote-to-kill-off-internal-combustion-engine-by-2030/

Good Luck.

Last chance to liquidate Hibiscus before the next down wave. Stock has been behaving funny today seems like controlled distribution by some people.

Melewar and Mycron seems to have no support. Free fall is coming !!

Don't ket your emotions control you. Don't fight the trend or else you will be send to the cleaners. MIG is clearly on the downtrend. By the way the syndycates are throwing, it should test 33 cents soon.

Buy, buy, buy !!. Backup the truck and load up this rubbish. Sell your underwear and buy buy buy this sampah.

I am new to this AAX and Airasia thread. I just read it for fun and some insights into the company. What i found is basically the same as other thread. Losers keep trumpeting how good and potential about this company. Keep promoting as if this is their grandfather's company. Some claimed TA and FA experts are actually psuedo experts.

Rule number one. Stock prices are not moved by facts and figures. It is moved by emotions or should i say public psychology. If stock prices can be determined by fundamentals then there will be universal price targets. Namely 1 + 1 = 2. Unfortunately in the stock market the sum is always not equal to the parts i.e 1 + 1 <> 2. If it is so easy to determine then all the investment banks will arrive at the same price target for AAX. Because due to the greed and fear of market participants in buying and selling, the market value of the stock varied very much from it's true value.

Market manipulators knew this and they used it to the maximum for their own advantage. Publish glossy news when they want the public to buy stocks and bad news after they sold off everything. Once the price strt crumbling it will fall by its own weight because it creates a negative feedback loop. Thus the pros will be waiting at the sidelines while the amateurs fighting among themselves over what price AAX should be. Needless to say if the price keep falling before the QR then some people are selling and they knew more than most of us.

Rule number two. Don't fight the tape. If the tape shows the trend is going down then cut loss. Old adage from wall street 'cut loss and keep your profits running'. Tape reading or 'transaction analysis' should be your number one skills to acquire. Ability to read the tape will help you determine what future course AAX will be heading, instead of guessing whether it will be green or red tommorow.

From what i see, both AAX and Airasia will be "waterfall stocks" in the next one to two months. I am sorry to say that a lot of people will get burnt. Talk about technical analysis both AAX and Airasia are trading below the MAV 100 which is very bearish. There will be more bloodshed ahead. Talk about fundamentals. How many of you knows what is hedging? Do you know how much it cost to hedge USD 1 million using currency options and forward contracts? it is is cheap then all the airlines in the world will 100% hedge their foreign exchange exposure through buying USD PUT option contracts. Say if AAX buys USD Put option at USD 4.00. What happens is that whenever the USD goes above USD 4.00 then AAX will gain. Say at today's excjange rate of 4.3945 AAX has already booked a gain of 3945 pips (percentage in point) which is the lowest denomination in currency exchange. That is hell of a lot in terms of currency and can be considered a six sigma trade.

So why AAX and other airlines not just buy currency put options and forget about the volatility in exchange rates. This has to do with costs. Do any of you knows the cost of all these hedging instruments. For forward contracts it range from 1.5 to 3% of the total sum insured depending on the sum and duration of the contract. Say if AAX insure USD 1 billion of its debts through the forward contract it will cost AAX somewhere between USD 15 to USD 30 million dollars per year. Forward contracts will only protect you if the USD goes above the level you hedge i.e 4.00. If the USD goes down below 4.00 AAX will just throw the USD 15 to 30 million into the drain because it will not gain from the Ringgit appreciation.

Hedging currency is only one part of the equation. How about aviation fuel hedging? How much dollars AAX again can take out from its kitty to hedge its jet fuel? These are some of the biggest headache facing airlines all over the world, currency and jet fuel price volatility. And most of them bankrupt because of these two factors

I am new to this AAX and Airasia thread. I just read it for fun and some insights into the company. What i found is basically the same as other thread. Losers keep trumpeting how good and potential about this company. Keep promoting as if this is their grandfather's company. Some claimed TA and FA experts are actually psuedo experts.

Rule number one. Stock prices are not moved by facts and figures. It is moved by emotions or should i say public psychology. If stock prices can be determined by fundamentals then there will be universal price targets. Namely 1 + 1 = 2. Unfortunately in the stock market the sum is always not equal to the parts i.e 1 + 1 <> 2. If it is so easy to determine then all the investment banks will arrive at the same price target for AAX. Because due to the greed and fear of market participants in buying and selling, the market value of the stock varied very much from it's true value.

Market manipulators knew this and they used it to the maximum for their own advantage. Publish glossy news when they want the public to buy stocks and bad news after they sold off everything. Once the price strt crumbling it will fall by its own weight because it creates a negative feedback loop. Thus the pros will be waiting at the sidelines while the amateurs fighting among themselves over what price AAX should be. Needless to say if the price keep falling before the QR then some people are selling and they knew more than most of us.

Rule number two. Don't fight the tape. If the tape shows the trend is going down then cut loss. Old adage from wall street 'cut loss and keep your profits running'. Tape reading or 'transaction analysis' should be your number one skills to acquire. Ability to read the tape will help you determine what future course AAX will be heading, instead of guessing whether it will be green or red tommorow.

From what i see, both AAX and Airasia will be "waterfall stocks" in the next one to two months. I am sorry to say that a lot of people will get burnt. Talk about technical analysis both AAX and Airasia are trading below the MAV 100 which is very bearish. There will be more bloodshed ahead. Talk about fundamentals. How many of you knows what is hedging? Do you know how much it cost to hedge USD 1 million using currency options and forward contracts? it is is cheap then all the airlines in the world will 100% hedge their foreign exchange exposure through buying USD PUT option contracts. Say if AAX buys USD Put option at USD 4.00. What happens is that whenever the USD goes above USD 4.00 then AAX will gain. Say at today's excjange rate of 4.3945 AAX has already booked a gain of 3945 pips (percentage in point) which is the lowest denomination in currency exchange. That is hell of a lot in terms of currency and can be considered a six sigma trade.

So why AAX and other airlines not just buy currency put options and forget about the volatility in exchange rates. This has to do with costs. Do any of you knows the cost of all these hedging instruments. For forward contracts it range from 1.5 to 3% of the total sum insured depending on the sum and duration of the contract. Say if AAX insure USD 1 billion of its debts through the forward contract it will cost AAX somewhere between USD 15 to USD 30 million dollars per year. Forward contracts will only protect you if the USD goes above the level you hedge i.e 4.00. If the USD goes down below 4.00 AAX will just throw the USD 15 to 30 million into the drain because it will not gain from the Ringgit appreciation.

Hedging currency is only one part of the equation. How about aviation fuel hedging? How much dollars AAX again can take out from its kitty to hedge its jet fuel? These are some of the biggest headache facing airlines all over the world, currency and jet fuel price volatility. And most of them bankrupt because of these two factors.

Hello Buy1sell1, get your facts right. MQ is not buying at RM 0.10. RM 0.10 is the par value of the share. Par value is determined by the company when thecompany issue its shares. Thus it does not change over time. Market price is fluid meaning it is the actual price paid by investors. It is fluid because it will go up or down depending on market sentiment which affects the demand and supply.Thus as of today XOX par value remains at RM 0.10 but the market price is RM 0.135.

We have yet to know at what price MacQuarie Bank is acquiring and if you read yesterday's announcement. It will first be approve by XOX shareholders at their AGM/EGM on 15/11/16. After that it wil need approval from Bursa and then the subscription date is determine.

file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/XOX%20BHD-EGM%20Notice%20(2).PDF

The Board of Directors of the Company (“Board”) to issue
and allot the Subscription Shares at a subscription price equal to 90% of the average of the daily
volume weighted average price of XOX Shares as traded on Bursa Securities during the five (5)
consecutive trading days immediately preceding the relevant subscription date (“Subscription
Price”) to the Investor;

Thus as you can see from above, the issue price will be 90% of the average price transacted during 5 tradings days before the subscription date. As for the majority shareholders of XOX, it will be in their interest to push up the price of XOX as high as possible between now and the subscription date. On the other hand MacQuarie would like to buy in as cheap as possible. Thus it will benefit to MB if the share price is pushed down further if possible below RM 0.10. Please do not forget that MacQuarie owns a pretty large asset management company and it may be of use to manipulate XOX share price lower.

All i can say is that there is currently a share price tussle going on. XOX wants it to go up while Macquarie wants it to go down. We just hope that XOX has more bullet to push up the share price if not it is going to sell the company cheap. In the end everybody suffers including us.The final question is will the majority shareholders allow the share price be pushed down below RM 0.10?

Here is the Ace Group website. Can be said headed by Tan Sri Ting Chew Peh, our former Minister of Housing and Local Govt.

http://www.ace.ac/index.php/en/

Normally 'vide crossing deal' refers to block trasaction between two parties. Normally it is done off-market transaction meaning outside Bursa. This is to ensure minimal effect on the daily quotation price of the specified share. As in our case it seems that Dato NG is getting rid of his shares at RM 0.20. The identity of the buyer will soon be revealed.

I reckon it should be somebody or funds who know something about Connect that we do not know. If not who is paying a premium of about RM 0.08 above the current market price? This should be a positive sign for Connect. I will hold it for at least another 6 months for the price to reflect this news.

No point selling now and buying back later. Only our brokers and their broking firm will be laughing. In this case we will make sure that we will have the last laugh !!

Correction. Connect is not a loss making company. Get your facts right.Connect is a turnaround company after 4 years of losses. It lost money since 2011 but turned around last year with a profit of RM 2.63 million. The loss of RM 1.35 million in the second quarter is mainly due to the increased investment in fixed asset such as machineries and infrastructures. As a result it's NAPS went up from RM 0.10 to RM 0.15.

If you look at the 4 rolling quarters it is still in the black. It made RM 429,000. As of 31/12/2015, Net current assets went up from RM 12 million in 2014 to RM 16 million. Total shareholder fund went up from RM 15 nillion in 2014 to RM 20 million in 2015. Total Current assets rose from RM 22 million in 2014 to RM 32 million in 2015. Its long term liabilities decreased from RM 325,000 in 2014 to RM 280,000 in 2015. That means its its long term liabilities is negligible. EPS - RM1.44 to + RM 1.24.

I reckon fundamentally there is no doubt this compay is a turnaround story. Technically what i can see from the chart is that the current uptrend is not over. There is still much room for it to go up. I am not surprise if the strong resistance at RM 0.135 be taken out in the next 2 days of trading. The next strong resistance shall be the RM 0.15 level.

I am confident that this level will be taken out soon by looking at the volume movement in the last 1 week.

It doesn't matter whether SKP earns USD, Vietnamese Dong, Chinese Yuan, Indian Rupee or Euro. At the end of the day when the payment is repatriated to malaysia it will nedd to be converted to Ringgit. In international trade trade you need more than an understanding of the flow of goods and services but also currency movement.

When Skp gets a contract from an overseas client it is normally quoted in USD unless the counter party is China or Russia where they prefer to pay in Yuan or Ruble. Once the project commence payment will be coming in by stages of completion. Normally SKP will have three options to settle its payment. They are:

1) Netting Off
2) Put it into an overseas account
3) Direct payment into its local bank.

You see when SKP does business with say Petrobras it will be paid the sum invoiced through their bank and then into SKP's local bank. So when say the principal bank for SKP is Maybank it will then convert the sum say USD 10 million into Ringgit at the prevailing exchange rate. Maybank will then bank in the USD 10 million into its account with Bank Negara in which will be converted into Ringgit. The USD will be transfer to BNM's foreign exchange reserve account.

Thus by every quarter will report its balance of payment in its quarterly report. If there is a trade surplus (export more than import) then more USD will be reflected in its foreign exchange reserves and vice versa.

The second methosd is by netting off the payment of USD 10 million with either goods or services which can be provided by Petrobras. Items like drilling lubricants, machineries and so on. In a way it is a barter trade. The main reason is to avoid any complications from foreign exchange exposure. Foreign exchange exposure refers to the risk of having the USD going up. In this case SKP will gain from its USD earnings but it will lose out big from it large exposure in USD in the debts (RM 14 billion). If SKP is debt free then it will be a win win situation but in our case SKP has a bloody huge debt load. So who will lose out when the USD appreciates? You have to remember that the USD varies inversely with the price of oil. When oil price plunge the USD will soar. Thus SKP will be in a big predicament in coming months if the price of oil plunge back to the USD 30s.

The third option is out of the question as SKP is debt laden and need every cents for its operating expenditure.

A lot of folks here only concentrate on the order book but ignored the debts. SKP's debts has already encroached MYR 20 billion. The Debt/Equity ration has balloned from 1.3 in 2015 to 1.47 in 2016. See below.

http://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/financials?s=SKPETRO:KLS


About 70% of it are denominated in USD. This makes it to about MYR 14 billion denominated in USD debts.

If you are not aware the USD?MYR has accelerated to 4.11 as of today as a result of our reduction in our OPR (overnight policy rate) by 0.25% by BNM. Reducition in interest rate has always resulted in the depreciation of a country's currency.

Hence, when our Rnggit depreciates further, it means SKP has to pay more for its debts. This is witholding the effect of an oil price further dip.

Thus it should be noted that when doing any fundamental analysis, do not only look into the order books. Debts are ore important.

IEA sees oil over-supply extend into the late 2017 due to dramatic deceleration in Crude Oil demand. it cited a “dramatic deceleration in China and India” this quarter coupled with “vanishing growth” in developed economies. The IEA also admitted that "global demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than the group initially predicted." Read article below.


https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Linking Lee Chong Wei to the performance of XOX share price is just fucking voodoo core-relation analysis. What goodwill value are you talking about when LCW is going to retire after the games. How is he going to bring up XOX's name? Selling backside?

It is no different in horse racing. Instead of betting by studying the handicap and odds do you know how newbies bet? From studies most of them pick the horse which is biggest physically and looks mascular and strong. Damn, how many times the biggest horse wins a race? With all the manipulation behind the scenes like horse pulling by jockeys, horse drugging, under table money for trainers and so on. How much chances for a newbie to win in such a situation?

Heck the main thing for the price of XOX to move is simple. Demand exceed supply. If there are more people investing in XOX shares then obviously the demand of their shares exceed the supply. Investors are willing to pay more than the current price in order to get a slice of action in XOX. There is no other complicated process other than excess demand.
,

Don't be too sarcastic and confident on oil's future. You will humbled by the market in no time.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-End-Of-A-Trend-Oil-Prices-And-Economic-Growth.html

Lybia to start pumping oil again within weeks.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/libya-preparing-to-export-more-oil-after-deal-unblocks-ports-1470002714

EV is dead?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-05/mercedes-to-challenge-bmw-tesla-with-four-car-electric-lineup

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-electric-car-idUSKCN0YW2EE

Since there is a huge ascending triangle forming in XOX, for me i shall forecast that there should be some serious price action in the month of September. Most probably the RM 0.175 major resistance will be taken down this time.

Anyway let's clarify things. No point arguing over the same bloody issue over and over again. XOX will not be making any BIG MOVES in the short term (2 weeks to a month). As i have pointed put XOX is facing a huge wall of worry at RM 0.175.

Just look at the following volume when it was trading around the RM 0.175 price range. This is also the price range where hell of a lot of so called 'ikan bilis' got trapped. So before we argue any further let's take a look at the volume distribution during those period. On,

March 2016

07/03/16 - 81m shares
08/03/16 - 110m shares
09/03/16 - 53m shares
------------------------------
Total - 244m shares
===================

May 2016

20/05/16 - 55m shares
23/05/16 - 78m shares (21&22 are weekend)
24/05/16 - 44m shares
--------------------------------
Total - 177m shares
====================

July 2016

19/07/16 - 22m shares
20/07/16 - 24m shares
21/07/16 - 44m shares
------------------------------
Total - 90m shares
===================


Can anybody see something that most people cannot see or don't even realize?

The most important factor for momentum is Volume. Since we have dwindling volume from 244m share in March down to 90m shares in July, how can it break RM 0.175? Even it it goes above RM 0.175, it wont last long as the volume is not big enough to support that price. It will eventually goes below RM 0.175 again.

So, please lah don't equate XOX positive price action to Lee Chong Wei winning Gold medal in the Olympics. There is no core-relation between them. BN government or our local fund managers doesn't gives a fuck whether Lee Chong Wei win a gold medal or not in influencing their decision to play up which counter. This is just voodoo investment advise.

So people, grow up lah. Don't simply believe in all those trivial and voodoo superstition beliefs.
If you want to make money consistently in the market then educate yourself on timing, psychology, crowd reading, probability distribution and so on.

Dead cat bounce !! Hello to RM 1.29. See ya soon !

More bad news for oil. Oil confirmed in bear market territory after 20% slide and dead cat bounce from above $50 last month.

http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/slippery-oil-prices-continue-slide/

Just have to hang on tough for surprises !!

Oil will have another competitor which will put some oil companies out of business.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160728142921.htm

Sell SKPetro on any rebound and buy back when it goes below RM 1.00, You will gain two rounds.

1) The price difference from now and below RM 1.00

2) You will get at least 30% more stocks from what you are holding today.



Trade smart. Don't just long on stocks, short is also another investment style.

Oil will have another competitor which will put some oil companies out of business.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160728142921.htm

Buy SKPetro when it goes below RM 1.00, Stay at the sidelines at the moment. Go travelling or fishing to kill time.

Oil will have another competitor which might put some oil companies out of business.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/07/160728142921.htm

Buy SKPetro when below RM 1.00

Yep still holding. Because XOX has yet to make any advances towards its full potential. A lot of short term investors got pissed off by this company as there are too many good news but it's not reflecting in it's share price. From growing subscriber base since last year till the latest acquisition by Macquarie Bank.The price is not reflecting any of these news and everytime it goes up it will be block by the major resistance at RM 0.175. From there the volume fades and the price slowly declined back to its previous support. There are three attempts to break the RM 0.175 resistance level namely on 08/03/2016, 24/05/2016 and the recent attempt on 21/07/2016. This can be consider an intermediate major resistance and once broken XOX is going to shoot up like a rocket. So watch out when XOX breaks RM 0.175.

From my tracking using the probability distribution, the share price with the most accumulated volume is increasing from RM 0.125 to RM 0.145. Hence this is a good sign of what is coming. People are accumulating at higher prices slowly and quietly. Once they have collected enough then it's time to push. I reckon we are close to a trend change as it has been on the sideways since december 2015.

Just be a bit more patient.

Not to mention, Richkid also got f###ed left, right and center by Scanwolf and China Call warrants.