Tho the article is timely i do not agree with all points except the dca fees n share dilution. These are right.

The others 3 pts are totally subjective n without basis. Just relying on feel n rsi is not enuf.

It seems like at the end of the day its just a hunch u feel that aa is not worth buying.

Dca fees may chg this is uncertain. But share dilution is real..it depends how many % the eps is diluted. Tho i do not know how much..this pt is a valid pt.

Pls at least give more compeling arguments before even posting...if not dun bother.

Thank you

Just wait and see what does the management offer. 

Those dun like have been repeating negativity again n again...frankly its getting boring... 

We know the issues la...u are not the only smart alec ...some think they are... 

We are not children...we know wat to do or not do ...lol

Just wait and see what does the management offer.

Those dun like have been repeating negativity again n again...frankly its getting boring...

We know the issues la...u are not the only smart alec ...some think they are...

We are not children...we know wat to do or not do ...lol

thats why i have already said in sona forum....i3 is turning into a pasar malam forum...lol

btw i like you rambling lady D. thank you for the heads up.

yes luckyoldman, you are right in your calculations.

i believe the management again already knows this and maybe working out a nice strategy n plan to offset this.

if they cant..well no need to say already.

that is also why we need to monitor this n see what do they propose.

perhaps they have a nice sweetener...

dun worry pasar malam ppl will only just shout out like pasar malam ppl...no sense of anything and just shout for fun like trouble makers...

exactly especially with our tidak apa attitude....sg ports will remain well n not feel threaten....

Yes! Logical thinking ppl have come out!

From here i can already tell that u guys have yoyr EQ controlled to a certain degree. This is important for successful investing/trading

All the best to us sona fans

yes

and that is exactly why...we need wait n see what the management has to offer. they should know what to expect n be expected from the shareholders egm held recently.

u see the market is very fair and fast. if news and proposal is not good...market will sell down. if good, stock price will go up.

all u need now is patience and wait. I am not supporting fully yet not condemning either. there is no point at all. we as investors are all neutral n should be neutral is all we buy/sell.

no personal longing, this not good, skip n buy others. this is not a pasar malam. there is no haggling and no wishful thinking. there are rules n regulations to follow. plus....the markets are really merciless...

again lets see what they have to offer us...

again pasar malam rules and negotiations by pasar malam people...like everything is so simple and drop from the sky...no need time to plan, check and find advisors etc.

just wish n poof...come true...lol

I agree with callme.

might as well sell ayam n itiks hahahha

ayam name = sona
itik name = reach

hmm seems all are interested in condemning everything and anything.

i guess everybody thinks that they know best and are the best analyst without ANYTHING to back it up. not unlike the proper sifus like icon/kcchong etc

i3 is really turning into a pasar malam joke ....unfortunately.

again rules cant be changed once listed. dun be naive.

management should know what to do now. lets just sit back n see what they CAN do.

nothing is cast in stone.

lots of companies trade below nta, above nta etc
enron/transmile can show u good results yet still fail
FGV have lots of cash yet share price drops...
emotions can run crazy due to ringgit going up/down
look at exports stocks lol...like a yoyo following ringgit up n down...no logic at all

if u are so uncomfortable in sona/spacs...why stay here / just go.

funny thing is even the pasar malam hawker thinks they knows best n above even the management. no need to follow SC laws...just follow pasar malam laws...aduh..

i rest my case. good day

well all i can say is. keep a lookout for CS n pag accumulating the shares.

CS = 3.7%
pag = 5%
total = 8.7%

bad thing is doesn't look like got lots of friendly parties...

any positive info on the exim bank loan to sumatec?

yes the list of shareholders are very very important. if i have more shares than u ..i can dictate how the company goes.

u cant really change the rules of the game once you are listed in any stock exchange. this is naive thinking.

the only thing left is to see what new sweeteners the management has to offer. i am sure its gonna be pretty sweet...as i am also sure lots of ppl has already sounded out their worries/ideas/suggestions to the management at the last egm.

unfortunately every investor is different and their goals are also different. we will just have to wait n see. all other things are wishful thinking indeed.....

of course who doesnt like money? lol

lets see how sweet their new deal is.

its possible but at the end of the day its the majority shareholders's thinking.

sona is cornered by CS n pag. reach maybe not.

nothing is cast in stone. what happened to hibiscus may not apply for reach. do no be so overly confident in saying that.

past results will not equal future results.

too many factors n market conditions come into play. however i also agree that share price above the cash back value WILL help alot...buts its NOT the only determining factor.

cheers

I think reach is better than sona simply becoz they have more cash to buy a bigger asset.

I believevthey are also monitoring the strategies sona is using now to counter any hostilities against the qa. Namely the foreign parties.this is good as they also have lots of local funds shareholders. I think they shld be wary of cs n pag n not being cornered by them.

Their field is bigger n has more potential longer term. They are buying an existing field of 850sq km but now only uses 45sq km of producing oil! Sounds good. Left 800sq km to explore.

I think thier management is way smarter n better than sona.

With bigger cash more to buy more to lose...better act fast n with excellent strategies. Hostiles are real..

Without the presence of CS and PAG in Reach, I will have full confident that the QA will be approved by the shareholders.

fiamma is right here in the money. thats why we need to monitor on this shareholding issue as CS n pag may corner reach as well like sona.

so far only pag has about 5% in reach. CS not sure. lots of local major shareholders in reach. maybe friendly parties to the management of reach. keeping fingers cross.

as for warrants i suspect reach warrants will go up then down again nearing to the agm...simply becoz of fear of QA rejected...so again if u dun feel comfortable , better sell the warrants.

there is no high price in nor low price to sell. we simply don't know. u will need to make the judgement call yourself.

whoa this sounds really good!!

i seriously doubt that the warrant holders will exercise their warrants to become mothershares and get the 7 sens capital repayment.

warrants are normally ONLY traded becoz its dirt cheap and has a lot of upside potential.

exercising warrants to get the capital 7sens is pure nonsense.

dun forget u will need to pay upfront 35sen just to get the 7 sen...which is totally nonsense.

unless some parties would want to privatise or take control of the company then they exersise the warrants to convert into mother shares and then take control.

Interesting developement. I have rebuy my warrants haha. Thx callme for the headsup. Are u still voting no? I think you will also reconsider on their new capital repayment plan right?

All the best to all. All make money.

this is exactly like hong kong drama....hahah

all the best guys gals

The tell tale signs have already said it all. At first i was confident but then news n info from sona did not imply confidence.

First was the md interview with bfm...he doenst look confident n is not a sales man with gungho enthusiasm. Fail dy
2nd with vp....he mentioned it was wasteful to vote no from shareholders...another red flag
3rd is the cornering of shares by cs n pag ...something not right
4th shares n warrants did not move but fell...
5th there is still no reply from my future intrinsic value of sona shares questions...like there is no proper analyst at sona...sheesh
6th i have the feeling that they are not serious in running a business...like half heartedly
7th capital repayment proposal too late

Failed spac. I think the others spacs need good plans n strategy now..especially being cornered by outside funds...

by proxy votes?

nice icon. thx

no choice lo. fear of losing money too real.
cut loss quick and reinvest resources for other more profitable projects

that being said even if the QA did go thru and being approved. we can still buy back shares warrants later tho the gains will not be that high.

this is more sensible for me.

cheers

it is purely a chance now that whether the QA will be approved or not.

for those holding mothershares at least you will get back a cash back value should the QA failed.

for those holding warrants the risk apparently now is very high of losing money due to QA not being approved. hence only play with money you can afford to lose as this is turning into a gambling bet on warrants.

the events leading to this egm has made me lose hope on the QA already. hence i have sold my warrants at a loss.

md not confident in bfm, vp hinting wasted opportunity should QA fails, the 80mil capital repayment too little too late and with conditions.

i think the spac structure has failed. one blogger did mentioned they have issues too much shares n warrants together. this is maybe true. but i for one did not like the 75% approval rule. leaves the QA to be cornered too easily.

guys gals make your decisions wisely and all the best.

Thx icon for your analysis. Analysis of a company as complex as aax needs certain assumptions n real operating profits are more important than one off items like forex gains n extraordinary gains. Fuel costs are the top priority.

Only empty shadows without real knowledge of what is important in the world of financial analysis keeps saying this or that...without pratical knowhow to back it up. Falsified self glory...sigh

With eps of 4.4 sens its definately good. However again we must see how it goes. Investing is an art n needs judgement .

Thx icon

The warrants are very risky.if qa not approved they will be zero. Be careful.

With some postings saying 50 50chance but already deleted...lol this maybe be true.

However, listened to the radio broadcast n the vp doesn't sound too confident too. Sigh.

I dun want this to happen but our chances dun look good guys.

Plus no more comforting news from sona.

All the best n keep fingers cross.

ladyD when u lookup pag announcement in bursa 15mar2016 by Pacific Alliance Group Limted(PAGL) this is the main holdings fund/company of all pag funds related buying/selling

look for the date interest acquired & no of securities acquired table. it is stated there 2 of pag funds bought shares from CS about 4.3% meaning CS may have 0.7% left

so far i know that all spacs need 75% shareholder approval. this is actually too steep a rule.

if reach major shareholders owns 66% or more then it could be a no brainer. however is foreign parties were to hold about 20% this will get dangerous.

the thing is we probably need to find out who were the shareholders in reach. who were the shareholders will give us a rough figure as to who may be friendly or not to approval of QA

look at sona...its being cornered by pag n CS. they may vote no and they collectively hold about 25.8% already of sona shares. sona management is collectively being squeezed by them already.

i suspect something is happening and they may vote no/or looking for ppl to buy them out. but what i am saying is pure speculation.

CS has bought into cliq now with about 7% holdings. why buy in? they want the yield from the cashback. faster than waiting for oil asset to grow?

again i know that central swiss bank has a negative interest rate now. meaning u need to pay banks to park your funds there. so lots of ppl are hungry for yield now.

latest info is pag has 5% shareholding in reach. CS may have sold some to pag. i assume they both have about 7%.

we need to monitor on this issue as spacs now are very susceptable to the 25% rejection rate.

any info guys? gals?

another useless troublemaker comment with no real help at all to this forum for serious investors looking for real gains n the future.

1. empty of providing help n info for serious investors
2. probably jealous of serious n smart investors who really knows how to invest
3. empty of providing objective answers to serious investors who questioned the management properly
4. probably trying to scare other ppl for the fun of it
5. purposely would like to see you fail sigh....
6. doesnt want his investments to succeed but want them to fail...wow

another empty echo.....lol

Just ignore the troublemakers. Perhaps they like the fact that they thought they have the power to blackmail ppl. Lol

must be margin players again. lol

Why are they still so quiet? Why arent they responding at least on some questions we asked yet. Any clarification helps.

I am getting disappointed

I think they saw our discussion on shareholder loans in here. Haha.

However for them to respond like this shows that they are serious n shareholder friendly.

Good job. Better then sona. They are not very forthcoming in info. Especially at such a short time to egm. I am bit dissapointed

I am actually more interested in the value of the stag fields oil reserves with infill on a per share basis based on todays oil price.

Hope sonapetroleum will advise on this.

Stock markets are forward looking. Not backward. That's why equities can be used to hedge against inflation...well to a certain degree.

Good luck n be cool

I believe u guys are overanalysing n not focusing on the big picture.

Oil n gas co are valued on thier reserves. Valuation includes reserves n future prospects of reserves with conservative discounts. Thier valuation is on 1p n 2p with the ongoing infill development. Its not 533m. That is only a simple representation stated on thier cicular page 112.

And dun forget valuation is based on todays cheap oil price.

To me i only put emphasis on 2 things at the moment.
1. Value of reserves with infill 1p n 2p
This has not included 3p(this maybe only a certain amount recoverable)
This has also not included the hart fields yet

2.price of oil. U think it will stay usd40 forever? Be smart

If there is so much liabilities u guys are worried about why even bother with sapurakencana? Petronas? Reach energy?their fields n equipment are way bigger than stag n their abandonments coats are way way higher.

As investors we can only compare with peers in the same industry. Dun mix n get crazy. Chill n relax. Ask at the egm

Jack is right.

Go n google provision for abandonment costs especially australia.
I believe its an accounting concept to tally n match asset n equity n liabilities together. In australia u have to expensed it. Meaning u need to show it now n minus it bit bit over the years.u will get some tax breaks too. They will also have ppe depreciation over the years n asset number will get smaller. Its all accounting terms. Time to learn how to read the accounts.

Accounting entries are complicated. Are u sure other normal companies dun have any liabilities? Some companies have contingent liabilities n they are not even declared on the balance sheet. Research analyst should know abput this ....heck even we laymen can find info on the internet. Chill n ask at the egm.

What kind of 3rd rate research analyst simple jump to conclusions without proper due diligence?

No need to be so judgmental just like that. We may not have aclear picture on the abandonment costs yet. Lets ask at the egm.

sounds like lots of ppl are emotionally stressed out due to sona stock yoyoing...chill n relax

I dunno how le...just an engineer. Btw just ask them on egm day

For curiousity and an analytical perspective. Good learning for me too.

From gca report they have valued sona after stag purchase to be 0.38 per share nav. This after adding assets minus purchase price putting cash back in n works out to be 533mil attributed to shareholdrrs equity. This is in their pdf circular report. Go read

Nav per share = 533 mil / 1.411bil shares outstanding = 0.38 per share
this 38 nav is after purchase stag fields n have a cash balance of about 400mil. This is right as abput 400mil is leftover from trust acc after buying stag for 25usd mil.

I believe this 38 sen nav is value immediately after purchase. What about the future value of stag? Is the future value of stag included in this price?

Oil n gas co are valued from their reserves namely 1p n 2p about 30.5 mil barrels of oil.This amount assumes amount of oil they still have n gca has gone on a conservative valuation. plus they did not include the 3p oil n the extra hart fields which may have extra oil after exploration. This is all in the reportby gca go read. This 30.5 mil oil barrels assumes using infill to generate those reserves numbers. And we havent even talk about oil prices yet.

is this reserves represented in 38c nav? I dun think so. Correct me if i am wrong.

so how much is this reserves worth? Assuming they used up the 400mil cash for infill..

Base on oil price usd40
exchange rate usd to rm 4.1
their costs of production/ oil extraction usd30
note. Reserves are valued after extracted from grd. Correct me i am wrong

Reserves value:
30.5 mil x 4.1 x ( usd40- usd30) = 1.25bil rm
value per share
1.25bil/ 1.411bil shares outstanding = 88.6sen per share
of course this is only approximate value. But wat the hell? 80+ c over cash nack value of 48.5

i think this is the proper future intrinsic value of sona if they buy stag fields. I think their infill will be complted in 2018 its in the report go read.


note
havent include 3p reserves in
havent explore hart fields yet...may need capex to do that
oil price at usd 40 now...may shoot up if opec freeze oil production with other countries
may even reduce costs of production in future by 10 20%
Not even putting in profit loss in yet in calculation

From this value its a no brainer to buy already unless i am wrong.

but i still think they need to give us shareholders more info. They are not trying hard enuf especially from retailers holding about 32% of sona shares now. Scroll up to see from one post.

Keep on promoting! Cheers n buy at ypur own risk

Sonapetroleum...it would be nice to have a share price approximate after the acquisition of the stag fields with the reserves. Like i said, more info needed.

Everyone is concentrated on the cashback per share of 48.5c
What is the theoritical intrinsic value after acquisition? This will include all assets n cash left.

I believe this u need to market to ppl.

Gca value nta to be 38c after Qa. Does this includes the cash left? Does this value includes the reserves of 1p 2p? What about the hart fields? Base on oil price now u need to show us what's the future value.

If ppl see that the intrinsic value after acquisition is like eg 80c sure they will vote yes. Not enuf info. Pls furnish us with more info

again its the fear factor generated by the news, this forum, everywhere now.

with fear ppl will just sell without thinking objectively.

this is unfortunate....