功课分享 免责声明，买卖自负，如有错误，尽情原谅

这个是我从不同的网站收集的supporting还有引用论坛blogger的文章整理的资料。

Japan is going to BOT power plant project at vietnam.

https://www.jbic.go.jp/en/information/press/press-2019/0419-012106.htm...

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Van_Phong_power_station

Is more high chance the JAKS Hai Doung power plant is profitable. So who said the again china JV with JAKS is Conspiracy theory is idxxt.

Now Japan bank also do the same thing for BOT project

越南的第四个BOT 火力发电厂由日本承包，项目在今年开始。

https://www.chinatimes.com/cn/newspapers/20191006000431-260209?chdtv

https://asian-power.com/power-utility/news/vietnam-ramp-electricity-im...

- Both news said the Vietnam are eager for electricity.

http://vepg.vn/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/MOIT_Report_58_BC_BCT.pdf

- Stated coming vietnam power plant progress

http://www.gfeen.com/nybk/1428.html

- Vinh Tan I thermal power plant load rate 90%+ over 200 days

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/228009.jsp

- DK66 calculation



Conclusion: Hai Duong power plant high chance will fully utilize on yr 2020 due no power plant are going to completed on that time. The future JAKS return may more than you think.

这个是我自己用政治的角度来看越南合约的可行性

JAKS投资的越南项目会不会是反之看起来不确定很高但其实不然呢？
越南是社会主义国。越南共产党也是越南唯一合法政党和执政党，党的施政也不会因每逢两党竞选时敌对党之间互相的拆塔或以对现有政策的批判来获得选票。我个人有关注的国家：美国优先（这也导致美国退出了TPP）, 英国的脱欧, 马来西亚合约再检讨，台湾蓝绿对中国态度。国内政治的不确定才是项目的不确定。


所以说了那么多JAKS会不会因为政治的不确定而使得项目不确定升高呢？
2016年1月18日的越南的党选后的下次的党选是2021年1月。JAKS的发电厂预计2020年尾就能完成。所以短期说EPC来说的变数其实相对较小，真正的不确定和最赚钱的将是这25年的营运。将来的25年我是没能力预测了，但只要越南共产党不要有什么大变就没问题~所以短期JAKS对我的MARGIN是安全的

Dear all, Just share what i have done before all in and follow up when i facing loss. ()

JAKS 我的重仓股，业绩爆好。可是在业绩后的一天只起了短短的那么一段时间后股价就从0.87 的高点掉回现在的0.745

暴跌虽然没打击继续持有的信心，但还是反复的对自己提问为什么。有可能是如Public Invest 如下说的把：
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PublicInvest/220809.jsp

自我问答：
1） 投行说未来接下来的季度，property 还会有更加高的LAD.
这也不是什么新鲜事。如果19年尾能交屋的话，以10%的年产业索赔额，JIC拖了大概2年需要赔偿200mil (GDV 1 Billion+-) 的51% 。大概unbill sales 121 mil 会抵消大部分的LAD，最后业绩会像现在Q2一样的惨兮兮。 以下JAKS 产业的血泪史：https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/jaks-property-ambition-takes-another-hit

2） 近期股价下跌
有内幕？有人早知道业绩大好提早收票等业绩公布后从中牟利？ 没关系，我原本就打算收个中长期到明年发电厂正式发电后才有打算卖。短期的股价波动虽然影响心情但还不至于放弃JAKS的。

3） Outstanding oder book 减少至RM 1.07 bn
正常，Mr Ang已经说会集中资源完成发电项目的。这我还比较欣赏的，毕竟自己知道自己头多大就戴多大的帽。JAKS现在的现金流已经无法再承受更多像STAR PACIFIC这样的大便了。

4） 糟糕的现金流
经过几轮的筹资，目前短期虽然吃紧但没到还要继续筹资的苗头

5) 大环境
近期全球经济不明朗持续攀升，应该是需要提升现金比例的。但我是散户心理，现在全部持有股都在亏钱就是不甘心卖。


自我给予信心：
1） 季度业绩
Q1-Q2 业绩都交了不错的成绩单，相信未来2个季度业绩应该也会在4 cent左右。一年的 EPS 18， PE 6 说 RM1.00 的股价一点也不过分

2）现金流
Evolve concept mall 出租率以达85%，这也不会再为公司带来负现金流了。如果管理层还延续去年的脱售该商场的想法,也成功脱售将大大舒缓紧张的现金流。


3） THE STAR项目的工程延误赔偿 (Liquidated & Ascertained Damage)
STAR没收了保证金却不打算接受大楼，所以STAR的索偿的买地赔偿加利息好像不是太有理。只能说STAR的管理层没远见，因为要求更改住宅去商业办公楼拖累了进度，可是现在又面临商业大楼过剩的情况。如果按照一开始住宅大楼的计划，相信STAR就不会像现在这样。也不会拖慢进度了，毕竟SS13的屋子属于好卖的。静待官司的发展，相信最坏的情况市场已经知道。所以只有好的转变不会比市场所知道的更加糟糕了。


4）董事动向与薪酬
MR ANG虽然没有大量买进但还是持续增加持股。身为最了解公司的人，已经用上千万持续增持公司股票。这代表看好自己的公司才会做的事。以董事部每年大概 3.8 mil 的薪酬来说。 投入公司的钱>大过薪酬数倍，所以是不是代表董事的清白呢？



5）越南项目
目前一切进展顺利，已有70%完成所以确定性也越来越高。越南由于是一党执政，所以政治稳定。2021年1月后党内领导更替也不会造成太大的更变。
BOT发电项目的公司：
AES CORPORATION (U.S) 在越南1,240 MW coal-fired Mong Duong 2 在2015年完成后也持续贡献盈利，该公司也在2018年寻求新的越南发电项目。这代表了越南政府的可靠性与有利可图的。因为政府言而无信或无利可图AES CORPORATION 也不会再而的寻求合作机会。
http://bizhub.vn/news/aes-corporation-keen-to-invest-in-thermal-plant_294985.html

同样在越南永新以BOT方式投资燃煤发电得南方电网公司的年报呈报净利润但营运现金流还是负数 （2018年报，第45页），如果2019南方电力能获得正现金流的话将会是对JAKS非常正面的。
http://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN201904291323957228_1.pdf

以上述同样在越南以BOT经营发电项目的二公司来观察, 相信JAKS的越南项目可行性还是非常的高的。但现金流方面转正可能还需多些时间。当确定性越来越高时，又面临大环境与大众还没完全接受JAKS时。对你们会不会是一个机会呢？

Thanks DK66, you are the best blogger in I3.

The KYY only know fried the cold rice without latest info support ~ What's the lousy blogger he are.

FYI: Share price normally move early than actual result.
Currently, Jaks and Dayang and a lot of share are share price over the current value because its have bright future ahead.

Today, I just help my mun to buy JAKS with 1.40 with hers 10% of total pension. Why i am not to help my mun to buy early? even my average only 0.87 ? Reason: The closer of COD date is more higher certainty.

You still waiting until getting expensive or buy it now? I am not asking you all in + margin as me. You can take out a portion to buy some and the other portion is in waiting. You can add on when JAKS really drop again.

The price are getting higher you will getting difficult to make decision.

Lost all respect for KYY. People always update latest new and analysis but KYY always fried the cold rice~

KYY correctly predict the JAKS future but enter too early and finally he was forced out~

Public bank revised my JAKS cap value to 1.00 .Should revised soon again after COD~ JAKS is best la.

Who are going to said margin call again?

Want to win big with JAKS ? A least hold for 2 year until end of YR2021. The returned sure better than you start Burble Tea Business !

I have decide to hold until end of YR2021.
How about you ?

Confirmed the super disposal JAKS time is not now. Maybe able disposal on end of YR2021 ~ Just 2 year time to wait only. Sleep well and win big even having the coronavirus .

@Anon
ALP want quietly Huat ma~ He will been challenged of the right once his disclose how the rare gem of power plant~ The KYY uncle is very good example ~

I know all the share price will drop due coronavirus when lunar new year on that time JAKS still around 1.40+ but i didn't dispose single JAKS because i have no idea when it will rebounce and flight to sky.

Now is boring time after coronavirus panic sales until the coming quarter result out. Just dumb dumb hold to win big.

The market panic mega sales if really happened on next week is very good opportunities to those enter market again.

https://saigoneer.com/vietnam-news/18141-vietnam-inks-deal-to-buy-massive-amounts-of-electricity-from-laos

Buy from laos and china better or electricity independency is better ?
Think and calculated yourself. Cheers ~

Maybe we have to think about coronovirus impact for the power plant COD date? Because power plant handle by cina company.

My view is shorterm no a right time to collect JAKS~ Long term should be fine~

JAKS easy attract naysayer~

For those still interested, do all the work before bought. I got so many friend still waiting JAKS big drop to enter also but the price all the ways to north~ haha

I call them buy by personally 1st on 0.74, 2nd on 1.12, 3rd on 1.24 but only one friend trust me and enter on1.12 I will not asking them to buy on 1.4 again unless the power plant completed.

Just keep JAKS in freeze to easy win big.

Thanks DK66, Vietnam government sure prefect the electricity from own country than others. Power supply independence is needed for national geographic strategy.

JAKS power plant sure will treat very well by Vietnam government.

My TA also almost same with OTB, but the volume is no enough high to break the current ascending triangle, still need to be patient. Fluctuation is getting narrow and going to break anytime ~

The TA will break and support by FA once the quarter result become more better.

For me always FA come first follow by TA, sometime i bought even don't care about TA but i still can continues making profit 9 year without loss since 2010, i believe 2020 is my best year because of JAKS.

JAKS FA never change why will collapse because of TA or naysayer ?
I can tell you all the most of success in market is by FA not TA, TA only can be support not the main reason of your stock pick.

The naysayer is really for oppose to oppose only.

Below the link from AES website.
https://www.aes.com/search-results/default.aspx?SearchTerm=VIETNAM

AES keep look for more electricity project at Vietnam after Mong Duong powerplant 2015!
It mean vietnam power plant are lucrative!


JAKS Vietnam power plant SURE is profitable also if not Mong Duong is AES last project at Veitnam~
Curious on Jaks power plant profit possibility ?? you all are able refer DK66 blog.

Naysayer only keep thinking the worst way and talk nonsense but never find out proof and supporting for their research.

yesyesyes~ 1.20 lo~ is your cutting point or you still want to hold and wait ?

For me is buy call on JAKS now~ you not need using all to invest current price but is really to good time to add more portion to your portfolio.

Yelling is nothing~ Today Jaks drop few cent is too normal because almost all my watch list is down.

Naysayers, please help to bring more down the JAKS price to abnormal if you got nothing support you said hard to do so.

Where more naysayers ? Please help to break current chart because my hibiscs still waiting better exchange rate to Jaks.

Review for my previous TA~

The volume are getting lower and range of fluctuate will be smaller, it will squeeze the trader profit possibility.

Now the chart are getting pretty to ready break higher with support by strong FA and future imagination. Those are still interest are the chance to enter if not the big volume (a least 5 times against average volume) come will sky rocket again~

You are still waiting to drop further may regret until loss this opportunities.



___________________________________________________________________________
Dec 24, 2019 3:32 PM | Report Abuse

Just share my view in TA, 2nd bottom is going to form around 1.14-1.16 after the chart will form triangle with slow down volume. The range of top line and bottom line in triangle will getting narrow.

When the time of Big volume appear and break the top line around 5-10% it will sky rocket again.
Reaffirm, i bought JAKS without using of TA. My decision all base on FA, because i belive the FA is much more important and TA is assist for shorterm only.

2 cargo is sure, 3 cargo is bonus~ The coming quarter EPS should have 0.04 cents if brent can remain USD70+ whole YR2020 is the best. Mean YR20 EPS 0.16 cents is easy.

Remember, 0.16 cents is real cash !

I got new fund ~Cheer~ Waiting to drop ~

You all are keep saying drop~drop~drop~ but never hold JAKS and dump how to drop ?
Now drop also no much become consolidated already !! More consolidated more hard to drop, when you guy dump the JAKS share to cheaper ?

IB giving Hibiscs target price on Brent-USD60 is
Public Bank – Price Target RM1.55
BIMB – Price Target RM1.50
DBS – Price Target RM1.40

You have doing your own research and calculate the current Brent-USD70 effect for the whole company because IB not always right.

Now we have to estimate the geological tension until when and the possibility happened of war because the longest of tension is better to Hibiscs.

The Brent if can sustain with USD60 is already worthy for current price 1.04 and the extra is bonus. Most important is EPS is real cash not instead of huge long term receivable and which is total debt free company with 0 financial pressure.

You want profit then you have to con others

The negative thinking ppl will always negative even all the fact and research already showed to them.

Them will question like dishonesty of promoter and management, capable of management, failed PPA, Vietnam government play bang, EVN power grid issued, the profitability, high financial cost, huge payable, JIC court case, the power plant biggest shareholder play game with JAKS and so on~

You think the price still will be same when all the above question have been clear ?
Investor have to always calculated the return and risk.When the possibility of profit are greater so many time why not to buy it ?

Sour grape will no going to buy even the price have fall from 1.80 to 0.40+ but sour grape when see other profit and hope the price drop but them never think the price drop is others gain. eg: KYY lost 60 mil+ mean sure got someone making this 60mil+ profit~ The money will not disappear because market is 0 sum game.

I will not asking those like me sailang with fully margin but it was a good time to change your wallet become more thick and wealthy.

To 1.0 only paper loss nothing to worry if drop also will rebounce to sky~The rare gem havent recognise for all yet and now is opportunities

My hibiscs loss almost 20% and hold until today already break even~ If follow what the tin kosong said 8% strategy sure heart pain until take MC rest at home today.

Holding power is needed for JAKS holder now.

1.10 no enough la~ should go to 1.0 !! I going to get new fund already~ Better all dont support anymore.

JAKS faster drop !! My Hibiscs already break even and going to sale anytime to change my universe Miss JAKS.


Hope you guy keep saying bad about JAKS ! please bring it to 1.00 and lower again !

The sslee is the best and higher standard of opponent not like others anyhow talk without support, read the statement and details properly. Always said IB this IB that~
The CIMB i cut loss with super high TP given by IB and until now no recover but earn much much from others stock without IB TP.

Tin kosong much of talk more to disclose their fool.

I am no buy any of Heng Yuan but Now is good time to buy !! ~!! the HENG YUAN bottom found and the topic of crack spread will come again.but I will no let go single of JAKS from my portfolio. The Jaks is still prettiest~
Buy stock must buy for future and dream with full of research and supporting~ Is really work ! Is really can earn much ! you cant earn much if you are keep look at past record

All the techboard holder now is buy for dream also~ When the wind is over them will realise it was nothing~ At Least JAKS power plant is real !

(TO PREPARED PAY PENALTY OF 50 MILION TO STAR) = totally no understand JAKS potential = All the talK is nonsense

Alamak, who said prepare to pay penalty of 50 million to star will disclosed how standard their are ~ haha !

The cut loss 8% is what stratergy? Should cut loss when the company change to bad future la~
Now my hibiscs going to turn green lo~ follow this 8% loss kuat kuat~

Super bright future for JAKS now, must hold !!!

Where MERICAN disposed on 07/10/19 details? After disposed the JAKS price is going up or down ?

So sad, i am real Margin player but no body care about me. OTB no yet sailang but you guy keep care about him for what~ it will no help you to earn money la

You guy sure know margin account and how to use it to build you wealth or not? Everytime easy said margin call ~!

Margin is our good friend ma~

I already said lo~ Malaysia is more roti canai than Vietnam. Doubt so much better quit from KLSE market. It was so scary forvyou guys

Why those never bought but so concern about JAKS?
Mean Jaks is good but risky or just want to show off but actually them are tin kosong?
Talk with nothing support.
Now the best support is ALP still willing to put his cash in JAKS !

Those should go klse tech board for warning call is more suitable. For my view all at techboard should have disposed and cut win and bought JAKS is more safety~haha

Mudajya i bought before and the reason i sold it when the construction period all around the roti canai news !

Did you see the vietnam gorvement roti canai and why happened ? I only found some uncessful project in vietnam but main reason is not government.

PS: Recent malaysia government is more roti canai, that why cant attract investment but you see how the Vietnam to attract all the investment.

For those are keep doubt on the vietnam government better quit from malaysia market because you have to know which is more roti canai.

Mudayjaya no sucess due roti canai goverment, Melawar is no capable.

Why i sure JAKS will success in Vietnam?
1) AES are keen to secure more electricity work at vietnam it mean the government got no roti canai until AES loss on first powerplant project.

2) CPECC sure capable to perform well

Hi Mr Tan KW, my stock pick 2020 as follow:

1. JAKS 30%
2. Hibiscs 15%
3. Naim 15%
4. Heng Yuan 15%
5. Canone 15%
6. Perdana 10%

For those are no yet buy JAKS but interested. Buy little lo~ to test water lo~
Lose no much but possible earn is big ma.
I sailang at previous but current price will not because it have higher risk already. Always calculated the risk and return will help you survive in the market.

Today went to evolve concept mall on 4-5 pm. Only around 30-40% shop open but the shop open still more than crowd. It cant attract tourism which only can do business with nearby ppl only. The mall should aim for B4 or M4 is more suitable. Beside got residential building still under construction which should help bring more abit ppl to Evolve mall in future (consturction stage like foundation only).

Mall aircond only can feel at basement and L1 only, the L3 toilet got no water supply (Cost saving?)

Look like no hope to breakeven for this mall~

Jaks drop is normal and it will rebounce higher. Those keep saying JAKS got shit at Malaysia is true but what i see is JAKS keep doing internal debt settlement which actually is good for JAKS holder.

JAKS malaysia business will break even or the loss of property segment will become smaller once the fully restructured and settled JIC issued when that time is no this price anymore because the Vietnam power plant considerable recurring income.

Just share my view in TA, 2nd bottom is going to form around 1.14-1.16 after the chart will form triangle with slow down volume. The range of top line and bottom line in triangle will getting narrow.

When the time of Big volume appear and break the top line around 5-10% it will sky rocket again.
Reaffirm, i bought JAKS without using of TA. My decision all base on FA, because i belive the FA is much more important and TA is assist for shorterm only.

Now i think Sslee opposing view is more better and high standard then alot of others. Some is to opose for oposed. The question asking is so far-fetched.