dollardollarbill

dollardollarbill | Joined since 2015-08-28

Investing Experience Advanced
Risk Profile Moderate

My i3 blog, Worthy Stocks: https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/dollardollarbill/blidx.jsp My Telegram channel: @worthystocks https://t.me/worthystocks

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Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

927 MLD water consumption

On Sunday (17.3.2024), water consumption in Penang was estimated to have reached a high of 927 million litres per day (MLD) as compared to the daily average of 877 MLD recorded in 2023.

This represents a sudden 50 MLD surge in water consumption year-on-year.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Glad to learn that Voyager Assets Limited is one of PBA's top shareholders.

Voyager Assets Ltd is an investment vehicle of savvy value investor Mark Chang, the founder of JobStreet.

Based on PBA's latest annual reports, Voyager Assets have been increasing its stake in PBA year by year.

AR 2020: 1,359,100
AR 2021: 2,099,100
AR 2022: 3,219,600

Voyager Assets is also a top 10 shareholder of VITROX with 10.16 mil shares.

Mark Chang is one of the most iconic entrepreneurs in Asia. He is the founder of JobStreet.com, which he led to become the largest online employment firm in Southeast Asia, and which was eventually acquired by SEEK in 2014 for US$582 million.

News & Blogs
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4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328
For non-domestic sector, there will be another round of tariff hike in 2026.

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4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This seems new, additional income of RM10m a year
4Q23 Note 6:
"The amount due from the State Government of RM88.76 million is receivable by eight equal instalments of RM10 million per year, followed by one final instalment of RM8.76 million, commencing from 2025."

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4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Looks like PBA is getting ready to further grow its renewable energy (solar and hydro) business.

4Q23
Note 10:

"On 5 January 2024, the Company increased its investment in its wholly-owned subsidiary, PBA Green Technology Sdn. Bhd. by RM1 million through the subscription of 1 million new shares at an issue price of RM1 each settled by way of cash."


PBA GREEN TECHNOLOGY

PBAHB incorporated a new 100% owned subsidiary called “PBA Green Technology Sdn Bhd” (PBAGT) on 12.12.2018. PBAGT was set up to take on projects in the fields of hydro and solar power. The idea is to generate electricity that may be used to offset or reduce the energy costs of PBAPP.

For the PBA Group, the main objectives for the renewable energy initiatives are to:

Explore renewable technology projects at PBAPP’s water supply installations, in support of the Vision 2030 aspiration of making Penang a “family-focused smart and green state that inspires the nation.”
Offset or reduce PBAPP’s energy costs by generating “green energy” that may be exported into the national grid.

Unlock the energy generation potential of Penang’s water supply installations, without compromising core water supply operations, safety and the environment.

https://pba.com.my/pba-group-of-companies/

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4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@benghooi
Thanks for pointing out.
In other words, PBT would be even higher if the lower ICPT surcharge was for the whole 12 months of 2023, instead of 6 months (1 July - 31 Dec 2023)

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4 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@Bullstocks888

The income statement can mask/hide the real earnings of PBA, but not in the Cash Flow statement. Operating cash flow before working capital changes is RM128.5m in 2023 vs. RM87.4m in 2022. Net OCF RM179m in 2023 vs. RM103m in 2022.

The deferred tax expense of RM25.7m is a non-cash item and might potentially be reversed in the upcoming quarters.

The tariff hike for domestic users (and other categories) was just implemented on 1 Feb 2024, not in 4Q23. So, the RM86m increase in revenue that PBA mentioned will only be reflected from 1Q24 onwards.

While costs may have increased a bit in 4Q, these cost increases can be passed on in the next tariff adjustments in 2026 and 2027 for non-domestic and domestic users. Consequently, earnings are expected to continue rising after the adjustments.

I will continue to hold PBA as I believe in my long-term thesis, rather than focusing on the next quarter or two. In investing, one shouldn't feel pressured to chase returns for the next few months. Taking the longer-term view and focusing on the bigger picture is how great returns are generated.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

If the market values PBA at a reasonable 10x PE on RM150 million earnings, we're looking at a share price of RM4.50.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have always sought to invest in companies with monopoly-like status, ideally akin to an unregulated toll bridge.

PBA's long-standing issue of low water tariffs has now been resolved, allowing for potential tariff increases every three years.

Three decades of pent-up earnings are now being unleashed, paving the way for superior earnings growth going forward.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Indeed @dragon328, with Penang having the second lowest domestic tariff, it paves way for another round of decent tariff hikes in 3yrs time.

There will also be another earnings boost coming sooner in Jan 2026 from non-domestic tariff hikes (last adjustment on 1 Jan 2023).

Although PBA expects RM86m in additional income for 2024, my estimates indicate it's closer to RM100m. PBA is probably being conservative in their estimation.

Bulk domestic water tariff is also now at a flat rate RM1.73 per cubic metre vs. 35sen for >90 cu m usage previously. And there's the additional 7sen per cubic m for non-domestics with the ICPT.

The stock may have jumped but it hasn't priced in many positive factors yet. I still see strong upside.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://pba.com.my/pdf/news/2024/07022024_PBAPP_DOM-Tariffs-2024_Apendix.pdf

"The PBA Group of Companies projects to generate an additional RM86 million in
revenue in 2024 from the implementation of the new rates."

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Bullstocks888

Exactly. Not to forget that PBA is also in a strong net cash position of RM193m as of 30 Sep 2023 (cash of RM213m vs. total borrowings of RM20m).

On the other hand, Ranhill is in net Debt position (RM1.04 Billion total borrowings vs. cash RM264m)

So PBA is very attractive from an Enterprise Value standpoint too.

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

With 15% ROE moving forward...

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

Historical high P/B was abt 1.1x in 2004 when ROE was abt 9%

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

Congrats everyone!

PBA next to follow suit!

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

It's the Year of the Dragon328
YTLPOWR + PBA
Multibagger stocks

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

If the market values PBA at a reasonable 10x PE on RM150m earnings, we're looking at RM4.50.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger always tried to buy companies that have monopoly-like status. Ideally an unregulated toll bridge.

PBA's issue of low water tariffs has now been resolved, and water tariffs can now be increased every 3 years. The new tariff rate adjustment also requires water consumers to pay the Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) rates; for Penang it will be +7 sen for every cubic metre of water consumption for now. So the new effective 'water' tariff rates are actually higher.

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328
Congrats on YTL/YTLPOWR and thanks for always sharing your valuable insights on those companies.

Posted by dragon328 > 6 hours ago | Report Abuse

many thanks for @Neoh Jia An, @dollardollarbill and KingKKK for the good articles and information on PBA

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

Ranhill secures three-year licence renewal from SPAN for water treatment in Johor
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/697173

I like Ranhill, but I like PBA more :)

PBA Holdings Bhd: (P)rofits to (B)ecome (A)bundant?
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/dollardollarbill/2023-12-28-story-h-211507880-PBA_Holdings_Bhd_P_rofits_to_B_ecome_A_bundant_dollardollarbill.jsp

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

Tariff Setting Mechanism (TSM)

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

Songkran water festival

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

If water tariff is lower then more people can afford to use water running hose to wash car.

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/the-star-malaysia/20240109/282626037520953
"This means my recent average monthly water cost is really a very low RM3.74; even a cup of teh tarik and two pieces of roti canai cost more than that."

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

@hng33

Agree with you that some might have misinterpreted the statement and taken profit.

The statement:
"the expected average increase imposed on consumers would only be an additional RM3 to the monthly bill"

The keyword is "average". Another keyword is "expected".

How is the average calculated? For which usage bracket? Referring to average user? First 35,000 litres per month? Referring to which states?

Many states are applying for tariff increase. Penang, Kedah, Perak, Melaka, Johor, Selangor, etc.

If we use Selangor as an example then it's easier to understand.

Selangor current tariff structure:

0-20 cubic metres = RM0.57
>20-35 cubic metres = RM1.03
>35 cubic metres = RM2.00

So, if a resident in Selangor uses 30 cubic metres (30,000 litres) per month, the current water bill is RM21.70.
Hypothetically, if tariffs increase by about 15%, new tariff will look like

0-20 cubic metres = RM0.66
>20-35 cubic metres = RM1.19

New monthly water bill is RM25.10, difference of RM3.40

Penang current tariff structure is very low. For the FIRST TWO usage brackets
0-20 cubic metres = RM0.22
>20-40 cubic metres = RM0.46

A resident in Penang is currently paying a ridiculous RM9 for 30 cubic metres of monthly water usage.

Previously Penang was seeking tariff review for:
0-20 cubic metres = RM0.55
>20-35 cubic metres = RM1.10
>35 cubic metres = RM2.00

Based on this, the monthly bill would be RM22, difference of RM13.

This was the previous suggested tariff back in 2021. It could be even higher in 2024.

Other states that have much higher tariff than Penang are also applying for a review, like Selangor for example.

So, Penang would obviously get a much higher tariff increase as it currently has the lowest domesitc tariff among all states in Malaysia.

Also take note of what SPAN said previously in its annual report 2021 page 48: Only Pahang, Perlis and Penang are allowed to increase tariff by more than 30% because of their existing low rates. Other states limited to 30%.






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2023-12-28 21:04 | Report Abuse

Just like MSM faces hurdles with sugar ceiling prices, PBA awaits potential water tariff hikes for increased profits. Two sides of the same coin in different sectors, but both operating in essential commodities - sugar and water.

PBA could be trading at 2-3x potential earnings...

PBA Holdings Bhd: (P)rofits to (B)ecome (A)bundant?
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dollardollarbill/2023-12-28-story-h-211507880-PBA_Holdings_Bhd_P_rofits_to_B_ecome_A_bundant_dollardollarbill

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2023-12-28 21:01 | Report Abuse

Suruhanjaya Perkhidmatan Air Negara (SPAN) in its 2021 annual report on page 48:

Penang has been granted permission to implement a tariff increase exceeding 30%. This allowance is aimed at enabling PBA to meet the future capital expenditure needs. Despite the tariff increase exceeding 30%, the expected impact on users' monthly bills is anticipated to be not significant due to the existing low tariff rates.

SPAN annual reports: www.span.gov.my/category/view/104

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2023-12-11 23:54 | Report Abuse

Prosperity Beckons Ahead

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2023-12-11 23:53 | Report Abuse

PBA = Potential for Big Appreciation

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2023-12-11 19:31 | Report Abuse

Well done!

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2023-11-24 15:46 | Report Abuse

In my personal view, I believe MSM's share price hasn't fully factored in a recent and vital information that it's receiving sugar subsidies/incentives of RM1 per kg. This incentive totals RM24 million monthly, and if sustained, it would reach RM288 million annually.

See page 22 of its recent 3QFY23 presentation slides attached.

Direct link to presentation: https://www.insage.com.my/Upload/Docs/MSM/3Q_FY2023%20Quarterly%20Results%20Briefing_1.pdf#view=Full

Source: https://www.msmsugar.com/investor-relations/investor-relations

FELDA Chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Shabery Cheek also recently shared this information on his TikTok account, and it was reposted by MSM (@gulaprai):

https://www.tiktok.com/@shaberyc/video/7303886296777264392?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7285675402361439751

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2023-11-22 16:19 | Report Abuse

Unrelated...but

Robert Kuok memoir, page 222

Shortly after we went public in 1970, the stock exchange collapsed. Stock markets have these bouts of influenza. It was doom and gloom for about three months.

As the market crashed, Shangri-La shares fell to $1.10, to $1.08, to $1.06, and even as low as 92 cents. As the stock dropped, I started to buy. I bought and I bought. In the end, when I looked up, I controlled about 40 percent of Shangri-La shares and had realized my dream of controlling the company. I suppose descendants of those who got watered down by me will say that I contrived the market collapse. I would love to be credited with such supernatural powers, but the truth is that it was pure chance and opportunism on my part.

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2023-11-22 09:42 | Report Abuse

Old 2011 article for reference:
https://theedgemalaysia.com/article/shangri-la%E2%80%99s-assets-appear-undervalued

"Shangri-La’s revalued net assets could be worth some RM4.88. "

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2023-11-17 15:28 | Report Abuse

PBA's share price, currently akin to a calm dam, is consolidating at current levels, gathering strength for a potential surge. When the time is right, it could transform into an explosive force, a dynamic surge, much like the unstoppable energy of water bursting from a dam, creating a wave of potential returns for investors.

Patience...

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2023-11-14 10:30 | Report Abuse

PBA = Profits Become Abundant

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2023-11-10 09:40 | Report Abuse

Nice. I added more earlier this morning

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2023-11-09 16:17 | Report Abuse

Another positive. PBA 3QFY23 financial notes:

With effect from YA 2019, any unutilised Reinvestment Allowance (RA) can only be carried forward for a maximum period of 7 consecutive YAs after the expiry of the qualifying period of RA. The unutilised RA for YA 2018 and prior YAs arising from a qualifying period which has expired as at YA 2018 can be carried forward until YA 2025. In addition, the unutilised RA arising during the special RA period is allowed to be carried forward for 7 consecutive YAs from YA 2025 until YA 2031.
Based on existing legislation, as at 30 September 2023, it is anticipated that RM275 million out of the RM698 million (30 September 2022 : RM244 million out of RM698 million) available will be utilised to set-off against future taxable profits.

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2023-11-09 16:13 | Report Abuse

Dividends potentially to rise too, back to good old days:
DPS paid:
FY08: 10 sen
FY07: 14 sen
FY06: 12 sen
FY05: 12 sen
FY04: 12 sen

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2023-11-09 10:12 | Report Abuse

Smart money investors sapu-ing shares

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2023-11-09 10:09 | Report Abuse

Valuation wise is cheap

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2022-02-13 14:40 | Report Abuse

Excellent showing

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2021-04-21 16:08 | Report Abuse

Once bank pembangunan run out of shares to sell. Maybulk should hit new highs

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2021-04-21 16:06 | Report Abuse

Robert Kuok power

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2021-04-21 16:06 | Report Abuse

Once in a decade opportunity