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2024-01-03 14:33 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, stock market is always forward looking, that's why I use the prospective earnings of FY2024 & FY2025, rather than the rolling 4 past quarterly results. Just as ones would not use the past earnings of glove stocks in 2021 to value them.
My earnings estimate for YTLP FY2024 does not even include a potential turnaround of Wessex Waters. For the projected 40 sen EPS for FY2024, I just assume zero earnings contribution from Wessex Waters, until I see more convincing turnaround in Q2 FY2024 or Q4 FY2024 after the next water tariff hike.
2024-01-03 14:29 | Report Abuse
@probability, you are right that most analysts are struggling to evaluate the potential upsides from YTLPower-Nvidia tie-up in AI data centres, myself included. I guess we may have to wait till the 1st phase of these AI data centres to be up and running in mid 2024 then only we can have firmer estimates of its earnings contributions.
If it turns out to be significant, then YTL Power may turn to be more like a tech stock which typically enjoys PE ratios of 21 times as the article suggests.
2024-01-03 12:18 | Report Abuse
Local analysts are still promoting glove stocks like Harta and Kossan, and tech stocks like Inari. You can check the valuation of these counters too.
They are not promoting YTL Power for reasons only known to themselves.
2024-01-03 12:16 | Report Abuse
Despite the strong share price run up in 2023, YTL Power is still the most undervalued big cap in Bursa by far.
I have done the comparison with Tenaga, PetGas & Dialog earlier, you can check the same with PMetal, TM, Nestle, PetDag, MISC, other utilities counters to see how high their PER are.
2024-01-03 12:13 | Report Abuse
40 sen EPS for FY2024 and FY2025 still has not included any contribution from the new AI data centre, WTE plant, any profit from Yes and digital bank, MLFF if materialised, Brabazon project in the UK, equity account of any profit from Ranhill and subsequent phases of data centres in Kulai and potential RE export to Singapore.
2024-01-03 12:08 | Report Abuse
PER is still below 7.0x based on projected EPS of 40 sen in FY2024
2023-12-29 11:59 | Report Abuse
Good article!
It does not seem to be possible to leave a comment at the bottom of your blog post, so I just post my queries here.
May I know if you have a breakdown of revenue for domestic and non-domestic consumers of PBA? This is to estimate how much revenue increase should PBA secure a water tariff hike for domestic consumers.
Do you expect the positive tax rate to continue in coming quarter(s)?
Posted by dollardollarbill > 19 hours ago | Report Abuse
PBA Holdings Bhd: (P)rofits to (B)ecome (A)bundant?
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dollardollarbill/2023-12-28-story-h-211507880-PBA_Holdings_Bhd_P_rofits_to_B_ecome_A_bundant_dollardollarbill
2023-12-29 10:03 | Report Abuse
Good to see Genting Singapore breaking up SGD1.00 again. Hope it will stay above and retest pervious highs soon.
2023-12-29 10:01 | Report Abuse
@fx115w, lets make it 2 pints! Cheers!
2023-12-22 09:26 | Report Abuse
@xiaochen, share trading using AI has been very popular in China of late, and Singapore is catching up too. If fund managers use AI in picking stocks in Bursa, they will know YTL Power is so much under-valued at current prices, as computed by SimplyWt below:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-ytl-power-international-berhads-022543455.html
2023-12-22 09:26 | Report Abuse
@xiaochen, share trading using AI has been very popular in China of late, and Singapore is catching up too. If fund managers use AI in picking stocks in Bursa, they will know YTL Power is so much under-valued at current prices, as computed by SimplyWt
2023-12-22 09:25 | Report Abuse
@xiaochen, share trading using AI has been very popular in China of late, and Singapore is catching up too. If fund managers use AI in picking stocks in Bursa, they will know YTL Power is so much under-valued at current prices, as computed by SimplyWt below:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-ytl-power-international-berhads-022543455.html
2023-12-22 08:45 | Report Abuse
@TimiraosL, now on hindsight, the news link you sent above is related to the story behind the selldown of bank stocks yesterday. You were sharp.
2023-12-21 16:54 | Report Abuse
@TimiraosL, this looks like only affecting foreign banks?
But local bank stocks like Hong Leong Bank, CIMB and RHB are top losers today
2023-12-21 16:00 | Report Abuse
Does anyone know why bank stocks are under heavy selling today?
2023-12-21 10:01 | Report Abuse
@Fundamental Trader, the debt level at YTL Power is not a concern, as most of the debts are sitting at and ring-fenced at the various asset level, eg. about SGD2.0 billion or RM7.0 billion at PowerSeraya, about 2.6 billion pounds or RM15 billion at Wessex Waters etc. These debts are being served by the respective asset unit, hence will not have any resource to the holding company.
For instance, the 2.6 billion debts at Wessex constitute a gearing level of about 65% at Wessex, which is a norm among UK water companies and approved by Ofwat and bond holders. Wessex Waters' operating cashflows are more than sufficient to serve these debts.
YTL Power had total debts of RM29.9 billion and gross cash of RM8.2 billion as of 30 Sept 2023, or net debt of RM21.7 billion. These are backed by total assets value of RM57.7 billion.
You would have noticed that the total debts have come down by almost RM2 billion in just the 3 months from 30 June 2023 to 30 Sep 2023, indicating that YTL Power's operating cashflows are very strong.
This is evidenced from the strong operating cashflows of RM1.7 billion in the Q1 FY2024 (Sept 2023) quarter, minus out capex of RM956m, free cashflows amounted to RM750 million a quarter. Annualised to RM3.0 billion, such free cashflows will be able to support a fat dividend payout of RM1.0-1.2 billion a year, with the rest towards debt repayments.
Total debts will come down gradually especially at PowerSeraya level given the strong earnings in Singapore, and also at Jordan Power project company level as project debts get gradually paid off. Wessex will need to incur more debts to fund the capex plans for 2025-2030 while maintaining a healthy 65% gearing.
FYI, YTL Power is in net cash position at the holding company level.
Now can you tell me how much debts there are in Tenaga? I tell you, total debts are at RM64 billion vs cash of only RM13 billion and equity value of RM61 billion. Isn't it also debt > cash, and debt > equity? You should be more concerned with Tenaga cashflows as it still has a huge receivables amount of over RM26.8 billion, most of which are owed by the government.
Maxis had total debts of RM9.9 billion but cash only of RM628 million as of 31 Dec 2022, shareholders' equity was only at RM6.3 billion way lower than total debts. Are you concerned?
Malakoff had total debts of RM8.8 billion and cash of RM2.2 billion as of 31 Dec 2022, shareholders' equity stood at RM6.7 billion also lower than total debts. Are you concerned?
Capital A had total debts of RM17.9 billion but cash of only RM525 million as of 31 Dec 2022, shareholders' equity is negative RM5.77 billion. Why are investors not concerned??
2023-12-20 20:44 | Report Abuse
@harvest6138, this is the good news that we had been waiting for.
With UK inflation cooling off, we can expect no more provision for index-linked bonds in coming quarters. Furthermore, UK bond yields immediately dropped 20 bps.
Wessex Waters will be able to save some interest costs going forward, and if it can contain the operating costs, we can look forward to a turnaround as soon as this Dec quarter.
 Posted by harvest6138 > 3 hours ago | Report Abuse
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/kianweiaritcles/2023-12-20-story-h-212279816-UK_inflation_falls_far_more_than_expected_lowest_since_Sept_2021
this may benefit YTLP as well ..
2023-12-20 20:36 | Report Abuse
@Ravi Kumar, you are most welcome. Give yourself a clap for having held onto YTL shares for so long. We have since collected 4.0 sen dividends for FY2023, and are going to receive much more in years to come.
Have a good evening
2023-12-20 17:21 | Report Abuse
My suggestion is that if you missed out on the earlier rally in YTL or YTLPower share price, now do some research and then grab some tickets. It is never too late for long term investments.
You will find yourselves rewarded with handsome capital gains and fat dividend payouts from FY2024 and years to come.
2023-12-20 17:16 | Report Abuse
@willc48, pls be more specific and provide some facts. Do not simply smear the image of a company.
For the record, YTL group has paid out a total of over RM28 billion in past decades. Only YTL itseld paid out RM1.0 billion of dividend in FY2015, FY2016 and FY2017.
Can you tell us which company else is more generous in dividend payouts?
2023-12-19 16:05 | Report Abuse
@sii581024, thanks for the confirmation on peak power demand of H100 GPUs. As said earlier, I am no expert on AI nor data centres, and am still struggling to learn more. I was just trying to calculate the implied capex for the AI data centre based on the power requirement of H100 GPUs. I have more clues now.
2023-12-18 21:52 | Report Abuse
But on the power supply requirements, I want to clarify that my earlier assumption of 6 x 3300W for the H100 GPUs was taken from the "Introduction to Nvidia DGX H100 System" document.
It says " The DGX H100 system contains six power supplies with balanced distribution of the power load. ... The system includes six power supply units (PSU) configured for 4+2 redundancy.
Refer to the following additional considerations:
- If a PSU fails, troubleshoot the cause and replace the failed PSU immediately.
- If faulty PSUs must be replaced, the system should be idle or shut down the system and install operational PSUs.
- If three PSUs lose power as a result of a data centre issue or power distribution unit failure, the system continues to function, but at a reduced performance level.
- If only three PSUs have power, shut down the system before replacing an operational PSU
- The system only boots if at least three PSUs are operational. If fewer than three PSU2 are operational, only the BMC is available.
- DO not operate the system with PSUs depopulated.
It all means to me that though a standard DGX H100 has a peak power demand of 10.5kW, but the standard installation requires 6 x 3300W power supply units. Though only 4 PSUs are required at a time, it still calls for another 2 PSUs as redundancy. So whether you like it or not, data centre operators will need to prepare 6 x 3300W or total 20kW for a DGX H100 system.
It is just a matter of convention as to whether you use the total PSU rating or use just the nominal peak power demand of 10.5kW. For my earlier calculations, I have just used the total 6 x 3300W as the power requirements.
Hope this clarifies.
2023-12-18 21:26 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, yes those chinese or Singaporean firms will just need to subscribed for the AI data centre cloud services, or simply enter into long term lease (8 to 10 years) with YTLP's AI data centre space at Kulai to secure assess to Nvidia GPUs. It will be better than trying to source those GPUs from various markets at sky high prices.
2023-12-18 15:25 | Report Abuse
@wkc5657, your calculations above sounds about right.
The statement last Friday did say that the 1st phase of the AI data centre would be ready by mid 2024, so you are probably right that it will likely use the remaining capacity of the hyperscale data centre after the SEA's 48MW. The 1st phase of the AI data centre is likely in the tune of 8MW module, and more capacity will be added progressively over the next few years.
2023-12-18 12:10 | Report Abuse
The article also says Equinix, the largest data centre operator, is going to see its revenue jumping up from its current revenue of $8 billion a year.
Wikipidea says Equinix had invested over $25 billion capex by 2018 and it was doing revenue of around $5 billion in 2018, now doing $8 billion per annum.
This implies that annual revenue could be as high as 20% of capex spent, so for total investment of RM20 billion for YTL-Nvidia deal, the JV could earn up to RM4 billion revenue a year when fully developed.
Equinix recorded an adjusted EBITDA margin of around 50% for the 3 months ended 30 Sept 2018. So for the RM20b investment, YTLP JV in the AI data centre might see operating cashflows in the region of RM2 billion a year when fully developed.
This is another angle of doing a high level estimation of potential earnings impact from this AI data centre deal. It could be way higher or way lower than actual, only time will tell.
2023-12-18 11:55 | Report Abuse
@PresidentLOL, thanks for the news link.
The article says there will be another 6GW of data centres in demand in next 3 years, representing $12 billion of revenue opportunity for data centre operators.
This implies an average revenue of $200 million p.a. for a 100MW data centre operator. Assuming operating margin of 50%, this points to a potential profit of RM450 million p.a. for a 100MW data centre.
Mr. OTB, that will partly answer your question above.
Posted by PresidentLOL > 2 hours ago | Report Abuse
https://www.schroders.com/en-us/us/individual/insights/how-ai-is-set-to-accelerate-demand-for-data-centres/
This could be a good read to understand more about AI Data centre & it's potential.
2023-12-18 10:53 | Report Abuse
Whether YTLPower can get a special price from Nvidia for the H100 GPUs does not matter much, as it is most likely that the costs of supplying the GPUs would be considered as equity contribution by Nvidia into the collaboration JV.
If we calculated above using GPU price tag of RM350k per piece, we get an investment cost of RM7.0 billion and YTLPower's part of investments on land, infra, data centre facilities & power supply will amount to RM1.5-2.0 billion, so Nvidia would be seen as contributing the bulk of the equity.
If YTLP asked for the price range of USD30k-40k per GPU, then Nvidia's supply cost of GPUs for a 50MW AI data centre would come down to RM3.5b-4.0 billion, then the equity proportion between YTLP and Nvidia would be more palatable.
I am just guessing, having no clue of the shareholding structure.
2023-12-18 10:47 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, the official list price for Nvidia H100 GPU may be at USD30k to USD40k, but the issue is that the international market cannot get enough of it and is willing to pay huge premium for the GPUs.
I hear from sources saying that GPUs can fetch a price of easily USD80k in China as chinese firms are not allowed to source directly from Nvidia due to US sanctions.
The RM350,000 price tag was obtained from online quotes in Malaysia. You can check your own sources.
2023-12-18 10:44 | Report Abuse
@Alex Chua, the statement said it clearly that the AI data centre will be owned and managed by YTLPower's 60% subsidiary YTL Comms, I am not sure of the other 40% shareholders in YTL Comms.
For the 500MW solar power park, I remember YTLPower owns some 60% to 70% stake with the rest owned by another company.
So the data centre business and the solar power park have different shareholders' structure.
2023-12-18 08:33 | Report Abuse
@xiaochen, I would add a bit more on the AI data centre total investment cost estimates.
As stated above, a standard 8 x H100 GPU rack typically requires power supply of 3 x 3300 watts or about 20kW. So a 50MW AI data centre would accommodate 50,000/20 x 8 = 20,000 H100 GPUs.
At current market price of RM350,000 per GPU, the investment costs for a 50MW AI data centre would top RM7.0 billion just on H100 GPU costs alone. We need to add other data centre equipment, storage chips, power supply, cooling, land and infrastructure costs which may easily add another RM1.5 billion (same like the first phase of 48MW traditional data centre being built for SEA Group). So for a 50MW AI data centre, total investment costs may be as high as RM8.5 billion.
In next few years, if YTLP-Nvidia JV could progressively find more customers for the AI data centre services, and expand to 100MW - 150MW, total investments may top RM20 billion.
Then that will leave another 300MW capacity at the Kulai site to be developed for other data centres, which may cost another RM5 billion.
When fully developed, the entire Kulai park will attract total investments of RM25b to 27 billion based on my calculations above.
Please see if my estimation above makes any sense to you.
2023-12-16 17:15 | Report Abuse
@Uniholder, I would change it to dragon728 few years later, haha.
Okay guys, time for some exercise out. Have a pleasant weekend!
2023-12-16 17:13 | Report Abuse
@iPlay, that's the message I would like to convey to all. YTL is helmed by a visionary leader and managed by capable management team. Hold for long term.
2023-12-16 17:10 | Report Abuse
I think if you are long term investors, at least with a view to hold it till 2031 to see through the Sentosa 2.0 expansion, you need not worry too much for another lockdown.
Just like what we have seen, Genting share was trading at as high as RM9.00-10.00 before the pandemic then collapsed to a low of RM3.00 now up to RM4.70. If there were to be another lockdown in 2024 (though I think the chance is low), the lockdown would not be as severe as in 2020. And you would bet Genting share price would at worst fall back to RM3.00 level.
But if the lockdown did get lifted off in 2024, and Genting Sentosa 2.0 expansion gets full stream ahead in coming years, then we may potentially see Genting share price rising back to RM9.00-10.00 level as before the pandemic, or even higher to RM20.00 if its expansion plans go well ahead.
2023-12-16 17:05 | Report Abuse
@keyman, I am not sure if there will be another lockdown in Singapore, no one knows at the moment, I guess this is the risk investors need to assess for themselves. I have no answer to that.
2023-12-16 17:04 | Report Abuse
Singapore dollars again rose past RM3.50 yesterday. With Singapore economy expected to grow strongly, Singapore dollars are expected to remain strong in coming years.
Singapore dollar was exchanging at RM2.20-2.25 back in 2012-2013, and has strengthened over 59% against the ringgit over the past 10 years.
Who knows how much Singapore dollar may be by 2031-2033 when Sentosa 2.0 expansion completes and Genting Singapore EBITDA hit SGD1.8 billion a year. Genting Singapore is expected to remain in net cash position by 2031-2033 as its operating cashflows are strong (over SGD1.0 billion a year from 2024) and sufficient to fund its expansion capex (remaining SGD5.3 billion to be spent over next 8 years). Allowing for 4 sen dividend every year (or SGD480 million), Genting Singapore will still have over SGD500 million operating cashflows a year to fund the capex (averaged at SGD660 million a year) as it has net cash of SGD3.3 billion now.
So by 2031-2033, Genting Singapore free cashflows may top SGD1.8 billion a year (as no interest expenses but may have interest income), and if multiply by the exchange rate then say at SGD1.00:RM4.00 then it may have free cashflows of RM7.2 billion a year available for dividend payouts. For its 52.5% stakes in Genting Singapore, Genting Bhd will be entitled to potentially RM3.8 billion of dividend payouts from Genting Singapore (if 100% payout ratio). That would be almost RM1.00 per share of dividend for Genting Bhd shareholders every year then!! At 5% dividend yield, Genting Bhd could be trading at RM20.00 per share then.
2023-12-16 16:48 | Report Abuse
@pang72, don't forget the potentials for Genm to successfully dispose off its Maimi land in next 2 months and clinching of a lucrative New York full casino licence.
If US Fed starts cutting interest rates from March 2024 as the market prices in now, we can expect meaningful reduction in interest expenses in Genting from 2024 as it gradually rolls over its debts.
2023-12-16 16:39 | Report Abuse
Mr. OTB, what I meant by S$30m/MW was the valuation of traditional data centres based on the recent deal by Singtel. What you calculated above (RM34.12 billion) for 250MW of AI data centres was correct if based on 30% premium.
But that is the valuation if we are to value the AI data centre business, i.e. if YTLP were to dispose off the AI data centre business to another party.
But to calculate the potential earnings, I was using ROI which is the return on investment. I used a figure of RM20 billion as the total investment costs for the AI data centres, and assumed a 15% ROI so I got a pretax profit of RM3.0 billion a year.
I was just trying to give some figures to the earnings potential of this Nvidia deal, and I may be way way off eventually, either far too high or far too low, I have no idea. So please don't quote me for that.
2023-12-16 16:30 | Report Abuse
You see while PowerSeraya continues to surprise analysts with its strong earnings every quarter, Wessex has submitted an aggressive capex plan for the next regulatory period from 2025 to 2030 and UK inflation is cooling off.
You also saw the Israel-Hamas conflicts driving up crude oil prices in Oct then gas supply got disrupted to Jordan, and YTLP's Jordan oil shale-fired power plant was running to the max in recent weeks.
We saw YTLP quietly got the award for the RM5.6 billion WTE plant in Selangor, which will provide another stream of long term earnings to YTL Power for next decades. So far, no one has factored in any profit contribution from this segment yet.
Then we saw YTLP buying over a 18.89% stake in Ranhill from a Singapore fund and subsequently raising its stakes to 21+% to equity account Ranhill earnings. No one has built in any earnings contribution yet from this segment as well to YTLP earnings from FY2024.
Then we had the multi-billion MLFF news which is still under negotiation stage with highway concessionaires.
Recently we had this significant deal with Nvidia on AI data centres which the market has so far failed to appreciate.
There may be some other projects under development at YTL Power, which we are not aware of yet. For instance, they may be working on potential projects to export RE to Singapore, as news has been scarce since Singapore EMA launched the tender process few months ago.
Yes 5G may be on the brink of turnaround and may start contributing meaningful profits to YTLP from 2024. We can also expect to see higher earnings contribution from Jordan from 2024. Wessex may be able to secure its proposed 30% hikes in water tariffs from 2025 if its proposed capex plan gets approved in 2024.
So many things are happening in the company. With a gross cash of RM9 billion ready to deploy for M&A and future developments, YTLPower is for sure in for exciting growth periods.
2023-12-16 16:17 | Report Abuse
Things are developing fast at YTL Power and faster than what we can catch up in understanding and what the market can appreciate.
With the share price back to last Friday level, it seems that the market has failed to realise and appreciate the huge potential of AI data centres. No analyst has given much value to the latest deal with Nvidia, only a couple of analysts acknowledged the significance of the deal but did not dare to attach big value to YTLPower as I think not many people know how to value it. Furthermore, the market is full of short term traders and investors with very short span of investment horizon, so it is natural for people to take profit after the news.
But I believe the YTLP management can deliver a good deal from this tie-up with Nvidia, and see that the current share price weakness is a good opportunity for long term investors to gain entry. You never bet against Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and YTLP MD Dato' Yeoh individually, let alone working together!
2023-12-16 16:11 | Report Abuse
@xiaochen, I am no expert in AI nor data centre, we can all learn together.
I am more inclined to think that the RM20b investment is related to the AI data centre deal with Nvidia alone.
The original RM15bn investment was based on the initial RM1.5b investment for the first phase of 48MW with SEA Group for traditional data centre.
Now with AI data centre deal with Nvidia, the total investment for the Kulai park will need to be revised upwards.
2023-12-16 15:57 | Report Abuse
@MrFox, when I projected last year that PowerSeraya could earn a pretax profit of SGD200m to 230m a quarter, people laughed and not many believed.
But the numbers speak for itself, PowerSeraya made a pretax profit of over RM1.0 billion in the most recent 2 quarters. It is going to make more in this Dec quarter.
We don't know much about this AI data centre deal, only some big figures floating around. But we cannot discount the possibility that this may become another significant earnings contributor to YTL Power in years to come.
It is by no mistake Nvidia market cap is over USD1.0 trillion and YTL Power market cap has expanded by over 240% YTD. They are both led by visionary chieftains and capable management team.
2023-12-16 15:16 | Report Abuse
Just a wild guess, at 15% ROI, this AI data centre deal with Nvidia could potentially generate pretax profit of 15% x RM20b = RM3.0 billion a year when fully developed.
The earnings contribution from the data centre business segment would be as high as PowerSeraya later. Exciting times indeed!
2023-12-16 15:11 | Report Abuse
@xiaochen, it is possible for this deal alone with Nvidia to hit RM20 billion. Here is why I think it is possible.
It is not fair to use the cost of building super-computers alone to compare to AI data centres which contain supercomputers, storage equipment and chips, AI cloud computing equipment and softwares, and lots of Nvidia H100 GPUs.
An online check shows that one H100 GPU can cost up to RM350,000 each. One rack of 8 x H100 GPUs requires 6 x 3,300 watts (or 20kW) of power supply. The proposed AI data centre deal by YTLPower with Nvidia would require thousands of Nvidia H100 GPUs and easily 50MW of green power supply, I estimate.
Based on the most recent deal on data centres, in which Singtel sold a 20% stakes in its regional data centre business to US KKR Group, it valued Singtel's data centre business at S$5.5 billion or almost S$30 million per MW of data centre based on my calculation.
Now AI data centres are much more valuable than traditional data centres which are used to store data, garbage or useful data. AI data centres can process raw data and turn it into useful data. I estimate AI data centres should be valued at at least 30% premium to traditional data centres.
Even if I stick to S$30m/MW, a 50MW AI data centre would be worth S$1.5 billion or RM5.25 billion. A 30% premium would value it at SGD2.0 billion or RM7.0 billion.
The proposed collaboration with Nvidia is for a long term period of easily 8 to 10 years which is the typical duration of data centre leases. So we cannot rule out the possibility that over the next 8-10 years, YTL-Nvidia will be able to find more customers for their AI data centres to the tune of 150-200MW capacity (note that YTLP Kulai green data centre park still has spare capacity of over 250MW left).
So total investments could easily hit RM21b to RM28 billion over next 8-10 years.
As AI data centres are the new thing high in demand now, I guess the return on investment ROI would be at least in the high teens.
2023-12-16 14:41 | Report Abuse
Genting Singapore EBITDA exceeded SGD 350 million in the latest quarter ended Sept 2023, hence it has outperformed my earlier projection of yearly EBITDA of SGD1.4 billion (as stated in my earlier report in Jan 2023).
In the absence of any further lockdown, Genting Singapore earnings will only expand in coming years as it rolls out Sentosa 2.0 expansion till 2031. It is scheduled to add over 700 hotel rooms in next few years from current 1,600+ rooms, so a 43% expansion in next few years.
It achieved non-gaming revenue of SGD230 million in the latest quarter, annualised to SGD920 million. This non-gaming revenue is expected to increase by 40% or more in coming years due to the scheduled hotel room additions, or an increase of SGD400 million a year.
It achieved an EBITDA margin of 50% in the latest quarter, assuming the same EBITDA margin, its EBITDA is going to increase by another SGD200 million a year just from non-gaming segment alone.
If its gaming segment also increases by similar quantum, then total EBITDA may hit SGD1.8 billion in a few years time. Genting Singapore is still in net cash position with SGD3.3 billion of cash, so enterprise value would top easily 8 x SGD1.8b + 3.3 = SGD 17.7 billion.
At current share price of SGD0.99, Genting Singapore is worth 12.094b x SGD0.99 x 3.50 x 52.5% = RM22.0 billion to Genting. This is already higher than current market cap of Genting at RM18.22 billion.
This means investors are getting Genting Malaysia, Genting Plantation, Resorts World Las Vegas, and its oil & gas and power businesses for free!
2023-12-15 14:31 | Report Abuse
@ValueInvestor888, I don't much more info on this Nvidia tie-up other than what you know, as details on this deal have been scarce.
I will just try to guess what the potential benefits for YTL Power.
First, it may be a joint investment by YTLP and Nvidia in new AI data centres which will be leased out to MNCs, just like the first phase of 48MW is leased to SEA Group on long term basis. The advantage YTLP will have is the access to Nvidia GPUs that are high in demand globally. And AI data centres are much more valuable than traditional data centres which are used to store all sorts of data only. AI data centres can process huge volumes of raw data and turn it into useful data.
Secondly, YTL Comms will provide cloud-based AI computing services, machine learning products, innovative AI cloud services, Malay-language versions of cloud-based AI products. Potential customers are government agencies and MNCs.
As I wrote in my last article, traditional data centres are valued currently at around SGD30 million/MW, as witnessed at the recent Singtel's disposal of 20% stakes in its regional data centre business to US KKR Group. I guess AI data centres are easily valued at 30% premium to traditional data centres. Even if I take the benchmark of SGD30m/MW, a 50MW AI data centre will be valued at minimum SGD1.5 billion.
2023-12-14 12:42 | Report Abuse
@KLV868, it is just a dual listing in Japan for YTL. It is exactly the same company and same assets, it is just that some % shares are listed in Japan to raise local money.
It is just like TopGlove which wanted to do a dual listing in Hong Kong for 10% of its shares some 2-3 years ago. It is mainly to get a higher valuation and to raise local money.
2023-12-14 12:37 | Report Abuse
Nothing much to shout about my record. I did suffer paper losses with Genting earlier this year and cut loss on AEON. What I do is just to hold longer than others.
2023-12-14 10:52 | Report Abuse
The new developments at YTL Power have been faster than what I expected few months ago.
Firstly PowerSeraya earnings have beaten my own bullish projections.
Secondly, Wessex Waters proposed capex for next regulatory period is much higher than I expected, and its quarterly result has turned around (as seen in latest Sept qtr) much quickier than the market thought.
Thirdly, YTLPower has accumulated over 20% stakes in Ranhill Utilities which have a champion asset in the water concession in Johor and power plants in Sabah
Forthly and the most significant one, YTLPower has collaborated with Nvidia in a tie-up for AI data centre projects at its Kulai data centre park. This is potentially an earnings explosion, the impact of which has not been appreciated much by local investors and analysts. But eventually foreign funds will know and value it properly.
Stock: [YTLPOWR]: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
2024-01-03 21:26 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, do not expect many of the local analysts to raise the tp for YTL Power. You can see from the commentary from these analysts in the TheEdge article above.
Having missed out on the strong earnings rebound of YTL Power, these analysts will be reluctant to raise target prices much. You can see that the narrative from them is quite similar, more so like a collaborative effort to downplay the earnings growth of YTLP.
One said for 2-year retails contracts locked in early/mid 2022, PowerSeraya earnings may have peaked. What kind of bullshxt is this? The fact is that PowerSeraya earnings started showing strong rebound in early 2023 (remember PowerSeraya reported PBT of RM290m in Sept 2022 qtr, PBT of RM301m in Dec 2022 qtr, PBT of RM806m in Mar 2023 qtr, PBT of RM1067m in June 2023 qtr, PBT of RM1025m in Sept 2023 qtr), and not early 2022 as this analyst stated.
I guess this is how they try to justify a low valuation for YTLP by projecting that PowerSeraya earnings have peaked and will normalised down very soon. But they will get beaten down again next month when YTL Power announces the Q2 FY2024 results.