The day to day share price fluctuations are hard to predict and hard to explain, affected by many factors mostly speculative actions. As long as the company fundamentals remain strong, earnings higher than last year, dividend on track for 9.0-9.5 sen for FY2024 (which will provide dividend yield of over 7% at share price of RM1.28), I see good chances for YTL share price to rebound in coming months to retest previous high of RM1.71.

That's all I can say. Have a good evening and good luck to all.

As of 20 Oct 2023, the net short position on YTL is zero, meaning that shorties have closed out short positions on YTL as its share price has corrected substantially (over 25% from a peak of RM1.71 to now RM1.26), so the downside is limited.

From the chart, I see RM1.28 as a good support which is the 21-week moving average, and expect the weekly close on this Friday to be supported at this level.

Yes there may have been some panic selling in past few days on YTL shares, but I don't see any change in fundamentals. The earnings outlook is still good for next few quarters, operating cashflows remain strong and YTL is on track to distribute RM1.0 billion for FY2024.

MRT3 project award is still on track by end of the year, and HSR is also on track in the RFI stage followed by meeting with Singapore counterpart end of the year or early next year.

MCement is also on track to deliver stronger earnings in coming quarters driven by strong bulk cement selling price and dropping coal prices, irrespective of whether MRT3 or HSR project will go ahead or not.

There are still a number of unlisted assets under YTL to be monetised or injected into the REIT, after the proposed injection of Hotel Stripes is complete.

The proposed injection of Hotel Stripes in KL from YTL to YTL Hosp REIT for RM138 million has become unconditional. YTL will soon receive cash of RM138 million which will add to its coffer for the proposed RM1.0 billion dividend for FY2024.

I think the recent drops in YTL share price are due to market disappointment on MRT3 project not included in 2024 budget and the risks of Israel-Palestine conflict escalating.

On the first concern, MRT projects are usually not included in the budget as these are Prasarana projects funded off the balance sheet. As the bid validity has been extended to 31 Dec 2023, I think that MRT3 project award may still come out in next 2 months.

On the second concern, I think the likelihood of Israel-Palestine conflicts escalating to regional war is quite low, as it will not serve US interests well. I expect it to be contained within Gaza strip but only time will tell. Foreign fund managers will sit on the sideline until the situation becomes clearer. Meanwhile, I suspect it is the local shorties who have been pushing down YTL and YTLPower shares for short term gains. However, such net short positions are reducing every week as share price gets lower. Soon the shorties will have to cover their positions.

@mikekim, thanks for the info. It is another good development for PowerSeraya to maintain its top retailer position in Singapore.

@cgtan2020, hedging will still be required to hedge against gas costs and FX fluctuations. That has been the core policy in PowerSeraya not to take risks on gas price movements. It will ensure a steady and secured retails margin.

What they do normally is that when a retails contract is secured say for 12 months at a certain price say S$240/MWh, then PowerSeraya (and all gencos) will enter into financial hedges on the required gas costs by hedging the forward crude oil prices and FX for the 12 months ahead at S$160/MWh so that the retails gross margin is secured at S$80/MWh for this volume of retails contract secured. So irrespective of how crude oil and gas prices move in next 12 months, gencos' profit margin for the secured retails contracts are secured.

If the gas prices are negotiated lower, then gas costs can be hedged at lower price say at S$130/MWh and the retails contracts can be sold at lower price too say at S$210/MWh such that the retails gross margin is maintained at S$80/MWh.

If the gas prices go up and gas costs are hedged at say S$200/MWh, then retails contracts will be sold at S$280/MWh such that retails gross margin is still maintained at S$80/MWh.

As long as the gas costs secured by all gencos are more or less the same, then the retails contract electricity selling price will be about the same, and the retails gross margin about the same too.

@cgtan2020, that is potentially a positive development for all gencos and consumers in Singapore. When the government aggregates all the gas demand from gencos, they can negotiate for better deals. What it means is that it will provide a stable and more secured gas supply for all gencos, and also a level playing field for all gencos.

@harvest6138, agree with what you said above. Short term share price fluctuations are unpredictable, subject to many factors including short selling and speculation. But over medium and long term, share price movements always reflect company fundamentals.

If YTLPower can deliver good earnings like 8.0-10.0 sen EPS in next few quarters, markets will sooner or later appreciate its earnings resilience amidst so many external shocks.

@cgtan2020, what is the latest net short position for YTL and YTL Power?

@harvest6138, I think it may be a bit tough for YTLPower to achieve the same net profit level as in last quarter Q4 FY2023 which was boosted by 2 extraordinary items: 1) super high wholesale electricity prices in Singapore which enabled PowerSeraya to pocket good long generation profits, 2) Jordan power venture recognised some pent-up construction profit after the 2nd unit was commissioned in April 2023.

These 2 extraordinary items may not recur in the coming Q1 FY2024, but the "normalised" profits will be very good, better than most analysts' projections, I hope.

I am not sure of which price review plan you were talking about, pls elaborate.

This electricity tariff is the price offered by incumbent MSSL for the non-contestable customers or retail customers who have not switched to a genco retailer. It is the default tariff, and also the reference price for vesting contracts allocated to gencos.

CIMB research today reports that
The RM200bn funding allocation for green projects is clearly encouraging given
the massive investments under the NETR. Just to give a sense, total investments
worth RM210bn-RM240bn are required between 2023-2029 and RM460bn-
RM480bn between 2030-2039 to meet the countries NETR objectives, according
to the government’s projections. As such, the funding allocation should somewhat
ease concerns over financing availability for such ambitious investment plans.
The continued focus on CGPP and TPA model are, in our view, encouraging signs
that indicate that the government is working towards coming to a landing on the
mechanism for electricity exports.

Maybank research in a note this morning reported that
"Sizeable Government and financial institutions fundings. The MYR2b funding by the Government was earlier announced during the launch of the NETR 2nd phase in Aug 2023. We understand that it will be a seed fund to finance energy transition projects that are marginally bankable or yielding below-market returns e.g. in the electric vehicle (EV) value chain, hydrogen as well as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies. Meanwhile, financing funds of MYR200b from the financial institutions would support the 10 flagship catalyst projects of the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR)."

The RM200bn funds from the financial institutions will help tremendously to push forward the renewable energy projects, particularly the massive solar power plans (new 7,000MW projects till 2030). Hopefully the government / Energy Commission will soon roll out new large scale solar power tenders for private developers like YTL Power & Malakoff to participate. The government cannot rely 100% on Tenaga Nasional to install all the solar projects required as funding will be an issue and timing another.

Again in Budget 2024 announcement last Friday, there was no detail as to how the proposed luxury good tax will be implemented, when it will start and above what price threshold the luxury goods will be taxed.

The only new info available is that the new luxury good tax shall be 5% to 10% to be imposed on luxury watches, jewellery and fashion items.

As most of Bonia products (handbags, watches, clothes etc) are priced below RM1,000 each, I do not expect the luxury good tax will be imposed on many Bonia products. Even if some products get taxed, I think Bonia will be able to adsorb or pass on the 5% or 10% tax, or re-priced the products, or introduce more products not subject to the new tax. Overall, I do not expect Bonia sales will be impacted much.

Still looking forward to good sales in coming Q2FY2024 and bumpy dividend for FY2024

CIMB research reported that "While there was no mention of MRT 3, similar to the 12MP mid-term review, we believe this project is still on the cusp of awards with the tender validity extended to end-Dec 23 and strong endorsement from the Minister of Transport. We
estimate that the three large civil main contractor (CMC) packages are worth a
combined c.RM30bn (total project value of RM40bn-45bn including land
acquisition, systems and rolling stock). In our view, the main beneficiaries are
Gamuda (for CMC303 tunnelling works), YTL (lowest bidder for CMC302) and
MCement."

@myloh123, I don't think YTLPower will be affected by the Global Minimum Tax as all of its main subsidiaries operate in countries with corporate tax rate higher than 15%

@ValueInvestor888, I expect good results for this Q1 FY2024 but do not think it will be better than last quarter Q4 FY2023 (RM1.1 billion) which saw some extraordinary profits in PowerSeraya from long generation into spiking wholesale market and Jordan power from pent-up construction profits.

But it will nonetheless a good set of results, I hope, where we will see the "normalised" profits without the 2 extraordinary items above.

Also I hope to see some small profit from Wessex Waters absence any further provision for index-linked bonds.

Yes, YTL is becoming more and more international with more foreign fund holdings and also a more diversified board of directors.

@mikekim, agree with your observation on Singapore electricity retail market.

Also reckon what you said above, as what I have been advocating, the only way to make good profit is to buy and hold on good fundamental stocks with solid growth potential. I would add to that: the company must have good management and strong operating cashflows.

@KingKKK, thanks for the info anyway. It is good to know that more and more funds and analysts are starting to recognise the growth potential of YTL Power.

@KingKKK, well said, a company that consistently grows the returns on capital and reinvest in new growth areas, and with a well qualified management team led by visionary leaders, is one that we should invest for the long term, as advocated by investment gurus the like of Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch.

From traditional power generation business in Malaysia, YTL Power has reinvested to much success in the following areas:
1) water treatment and sewage business (a perpetual concession) in the UK acquired Wessex Waters at a bargain from Enron
2) electricity distribution business in South Australia by acquiring a stake in Electranet (which has since been sold off with over 2,700% returns
3) power generation & multi-utilities business in a merchant electricity market in Singapore by acquiring 100% stake in PowerSeraya during 2008 Global Financial Crisis
4) 5G business in Malaysia which is on the brink of achieving critical mass customer base and profit generation
5) oil shale-fired power generation in Jordan by co-developing it with partner Enefit from Estonia
6) green data centre business by acquiring a small scale data centre in Singapore then developing a large scale 500MW data centre park in Kulai
7) solar power farm starting with 500MW in Kulai mainly to power up green data centres there, paving the way to bag more mega solar projects as rolled out by Malaysia government over next 7-27 years
8) EV charging in Singapore
9) Waste-to-energy project with floating solar power farm in Rawang
10) digital bank after clinching a valuable digital bank license with SEA Group in Malaysia

@cwc1982, thanks for the info.

Puan Raja Noorma CV indeed looks impressive

I only saw Bursa announcement on the appointment of Mr. Tang and Puan Raja Noorma to the board and audit committee

@cgtan2020, such remaining short positions will be closed out soon, otherwise they will suffer huge losses

@cwc1981, what do you mean? Who has joined the YTL board?

@cgtan2020, I also saw that 11m shares transacted at RM2.02 at 4.50pm just now.

So we have seen large transactions done at RM1.88, then at RM2.08 and today at RM2.02, averaged at about RM2.00. Looks like funds are getting ready for next leg up.

@Alex Chua, thanks for the link. The news article says Jordan gets 7% of its gas supply from the Tamar gas field which is now shut, and the bulk of its gas supply from the Leviathan gas field, according to Wood Mackenzie.

However, a prolonged shutdown of Tamar gas field could prompt Israel to divert the Jordan-bound gas produced at Leviathan gas field to the domestic market.

We need to see if a prolonged shotdown of Tamar gas field will happen in next few weeks, but for now the disruption to Jordan gas supply is already there, 7% lower gas supply means almost 10% gas-fired power generation in Jordan is out now.

As the Jordanian public and members of parliament generally oppose to the Israel gas deal, it was the prime minister together with Nepco bulldozed through the deal by spreading propaganda that the Attarat Power oil-shale power plant project was overly priced to justify bringing in "cheap" gas from Israel. But whether it is really cheap is up for argument, more so when crude oil prices approach US$90/bbl. The fact that the US Noble Energy would make a handsome profit of $8.5 billion from the deal speaks loud about the lucrative deal for Israel and the losing end for Jordan.

IN any event, the current Israel-Palestine conflict serves as a clear warning to NEPCO on fuel supply security. NEPCO simply cannot ignore the fact that the disruption of gas supply from a single source, which is from Israel, will cause the loss of over half of the power generation in Jordan, and the threat of national blackouts will outweigh any economic savings from such gas supply, if any

Wikipedia further says:

"The 65-km route stretches from Jordan's northern borders with Israel to the Mafraq governorate in the northeast. Jordan's national electricity company NEPCO has signed a $15-billion agreement to buy natural gas from Israel over a 15-year period. The deal is set to proceed despite strong internal opposition from the public and parliament. In less than 2 years, the gas is extracted from the Israeli-controlled Leviathan fields in the eastern Mediterranean. The extraction is being led by the US giant Noble Energy. The Israeli government is set to make $8.4 billion from the deal, according to campaigners."

"Jordanian society, many of whom are Palestinian refugees, continue to resist official efforts to promote ties with Israel and have been critical of the deal. .. In July of 2018, 18 Jordanian lawmakers spoke in the parliament to demand either the cancellation of the Israel-Jordan gas deal or its presentation to Parliament to clarify its terms and conditions. Omar Razzaz, Jordan's prime minister, did not respond to the members' demand. According to BDS Jordan, a campaign group that supports the boycott of Israel, most members of parliament oppose the deal."

That is based on the Reuters news, but Wikipedia says the Israel- Jordan gas pipeline connects the Leviathan fields, off the coast of Israel, to Jordan. Leviathan gas field is located some 25km south-west of the Tamar gas field. Tamar gas field is nearer to the mainland and Jordan, so it is only natural for the gas pipeline to run from Tamar, but there may be a connection between Leviathan and Tamar.

In either way, I think the gas supply to Jordan is disrupted partially or fully as Israel will restrict gas export after it shut down the Tamar gas field which produced 10 BCM/day of gas.

@Alex Chua, the largest offshore gas field Leviathan is still in normal operation, that's true. But what we are talking about is the Israel southern coast gas field Tamar which used to supply gas to Jordan. Tamar gas field is shut down temporarily as it is located within missile striking distance from Gaza.

@cgtan2020, the gas supply disruption from Israel to Jordan is well expected, as I already predicted yesterday.

The gas supply to Jordan is from this massive gas field in southern Israel which produced some 10 BCM/day of natural gas, 30% of which is piped to Jordan. I think they will shut down this gas production field until the conflict with Hamas is ended as it is within missile striking distance from Gaza strip.

I think most foreign funds will know this point very well as security of fuel supply is a primary concern for every country. The quick resolution of Jordan Power arbitration case will be a key catalyst for YTL Power share price which is seeing healthy buying from foreign funds today.

Even though if the Israel - Palastine conflict can be cooled off quickly with international efforts, it still highlights the big risk of Jordan relying on a foreign gas supply for almost 70% of its power generation needs.

It will prompt Jordan government to re-think the merits of having the oil-shale power plant that burns indigenous fuel which is not subject to fluctuations of international gas / oil prices and FX risks.

If the conflicts continue on and gas supply from Israel to Jordan gets disrupted for few weeks, I think Jordan Nepco may withdraw its case against Attarat Power in the international arbitration for which Nepco has a very weak case.

That would hasten PPA payments from Nepco to Attarat Power and hence earnings contribution from Jordan to YTLPower could be recognised in full (almost double of the current level).

With the conflicts between Israel and Palastine escalating in a matter of days, the gas supply from Israel to northern Jordan (which began in 2020) will likely get disrupted as it happened many times before as militants struck on the gas pipeline from Egypt to Jordan years ago.

That will make YTLPower's oil shale power plant in Jordan becoming more and more important to continue supplying essential power supply to the country as more gas plants are taken down due to gas supply disruption later.

@cgtan2020, high gas prices are good for PowerSeraya in these 2 years because they have locked in relatively cheap gas supply during pandemic times.

In normal times, high or low gas prices do not have much impact on PowerSeraya earnings as they typically hedge close to 100% of the required gas costs for their retails contracts & vesting contracts secured. In an indirect way, super high gas prices will cause electricity prices to surge high and that will discourage consumption in a small manner.

Natural gas prices in Singapore follow more or less the movements of crude oil prices. Gencos in Singapore typically hedge almost 100% of their input gas costs against retails electricity contracts secured and also against the vesting contracts allocated every quarter based on the forward looking Brent crude oil price. No worry at all for gencos.

As PowerSeraya has secured some relatively cheap gas supply for the next 2 years, surging gas prices will cause electricity prices to jump up and hence benefit PowerSeraya slightly (as I dp not know how much cheap gas supply PS has secured and at what price). This is not a typical practice but somehow PS has managed to secure relatively cheap gas supply towards the end of the pandemic period, why not?

@cgtan2020, the increased in USEP in Sept 2023 is well expected, as crude oil prices surged up to USD95/bbl and electricity supply in Singapore remained very tight.

That's good for PowerSeraya which could have added few million of SGD profits in Sept month by selling long into the wholesale market.

Not helping was the abortion of the deal for KLK to take over BPlant. That gave a bad impression to foreign funds as in our free capital market is easily disrupted by politics and government policy.

@Yezzy99108, it is disheartening to see share price dropping every day, isn't it?

You are probably right that we will need to wait till the budget 2024 announcement next Friday to see where the market is heading to.

I suspect the weak market sentiment in these few days is mainly due to the concern on any market disruptive policy to be announced in the coming budget, such as capital gain tax or increased gaming tax or luxury tax or sugar tax etc. Hence we are seeing stocks in most sectors are dropping like Genm, Bonia, Panamy, Nestle, Heneiken, F&N, MSM etc.

@cgtan2020, I have sent the pdf file to you via i3 messenger.

Whether it was a married deal on 15 Sept 2023 does not matter, the thing is that there was a large transaction of 93 m shares done at RM2.08 in last minutes

There has been too much speculative activities on YTLPower shares since August as the share price broke away from resistance 1.38 on 2nd August and went up all the way to a high of RM2.24.

I am not expert on technical charts and I believe technical charts may be deceiving sometimes. So I fall back to fundamentals as always to analyse the share price movements of YTLPower.

As you have seen, YTLPower first saw heavy foreign buying on 21st August when it was first reported for YTLPower to be included into FTSE Asia Pacific index. The share price was chased to a high of RM1.88 on that day with heavy trading volume of 56.6 million shares.

Then on 25th August, one day after YTLP announced the record quarterly profit, again YTLP shares experienced heavy buying with 73 million shares traded. The share price opened at RM1.85, went up to a high of RM1.95 and closed at RM1.88.

On 3rd Oct, Maybank research reported that YTLPower was the stock most bought by foreign funds in the month of September with net purchase of RM254 million worth of shares. Share price of YTLPower traded within the price range of RM1.98 to RM2.24 in September, meaning that the average buy-in price for foreign funds on YTLP was likely to be over RM2.00. This was also evidenced by a married deal of 93 million shares transacted at last minutes on 15th September. So foreign funds bought about 122 million shares of YTLP in September month alone.

YTD foreign funds have bought a total of RM497 million worth of YTLP shares, minus out the RM254m bought in September, foreign funds had bought RM243 million worth of YTLP shares before September. As trading volume of YTLP got heavy only from early August, I presume most of foreign fund buying of YTLP only started from 1st August. The share price of YTLP ranged from RM1.38 to RM2.19 averaged at RM1.78. So I calculate that foreign funds had bought in some 136 million shares of YTLP before Sept at an average price of RM1.78.

Foreign funds once buy in a stock will typically make at least 50% profit before exiting, and seldom exit at a loss. So I would think that RM1.88 will be a strong support for YTLP share price as it was the level foreign funds first bought in bulk on 21st & 25th August.

Then for whatever reason if RM1.88 gives way, next strong support will be RM1.78 level which is the average buy-in price of foreign funds that bought in before September. At RM1.78 level, YTLP share would have given up all gains from the news of inclusion into FTSE Asia Pacific Index and also the announcement of record quarterly profit on 24th August, so the downside would be very limited.

On the upside, I still look at RM4.00 as the target for 2024, based on 10x PER of FY2024 EPS of 40 sen. Before that, I see good chance for Hong Leong tp of RM2.90 to be achieved by end of 2023 driven by positive news below:
1) foreign funds are buying after it is included into FTSE Asia Pacific index
2) foreign funds have bought in at average price of RM1.78 to RM2.08, so a 50% typical gain sought by foreign funds will take it to RM2.67 to RM3.12 or averaged at RM2.90
3) YTLP will likely be included into KLCI Component index stock based on its current market cap, that will prompt more funds buying as exposure to the index
4) YTLP will likely announce quarterly result for Sept 2023 which will beat street estimates by end November
5) A potential turnaround of Wessex Waters in September quarter in the absence of further provision for index-linked bonds
6) a potential re-rating of water companies in the UK after the investment plans for the next regulatory period of 2025-2030 get approved by Ofwat. As illustrated this morning, Wessex's RCV may expand by 50% to GBP6.0 billion by 2030 and valuation may jump to GBP5.7 billion or RM32.7 billion by 2030
7) potential new data centre jobs secured in next few months

By 2025, Wessex Waters' RCV will reach GBP4.0 billion and net debt at GBP2.6 billion.
At 1.2x RCV, Wessex will be worth 1.2 x 4.0 - 2.6 = GBP2.2 billion or RM12.6 billion
At 1.6x RCV, Wessex will be worth 1.6 x 4.0 - 2.6 = GBP3.8 billion or RM21.9 billion

By 2030, Wessex Waters' RCV will reach GBP6.0 billion and net debt at GBP3.9 billion.
At 1.2x RCV, Wessex will be worth 1.2 x 6.0 - 3.9 = GBP3.3 billion or RM19.0 billion
At 1.6x RCV, Wessex will be worth 1.6 x 6.0 - 3.9 = GBP5.7 billion or RM32.7 billion

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/water-bills-set-to-soar-by-up-to-44-by-2030-see-how-much-extra-your-water-firm-wants-to-charge/ar-AA1hDvbV

Wessex Waters to raise water bills by 30.9% by 2030. For the big investments for regulatory period 2025-2030, water companies in the UK will raise water bills by over 30% in next 5 years.

Wessex Waters RCV is expected to reach GBP4.0 billion by 2025, and it is expected to spend some GBP2.0 billion over the next 5-year regulatory period from 2025-2030, hence RCV will rise by 50% to almost GBP6.0 billion by 2030.

Wessex Waters' annual revenue is almost RM4.0 billion, so a 30.9% increase in water tariffs will increase its annual revenue by RM1.23 billion, offset by the increased interest expenses of GBP1.3bn x 5% = RM371 million a year, Wessex Waters will enjoy an increase of RM859 million in gross profit a year by 2030 (ignoring the increase in non-cash depreciation charges and assuming the pent-up adjustment in water tariffs will be enough to cover the increase in other operating costs).

Good closing today and for the quarter end. What an eventful quarter!

As announced in the news above, Singapore electricity tariffs for 4Q 2023 will go up by 0.98 cents/kWh or SGD9.80/MWh, the bulk of the increase will to the generation companies.

This means that PowerSeraya will enjoy an additional gross margin of SGD9.80/MWh for the vesting contracts it is entitled to. The total vesting volume for PowerSeraya is estimated at 3,300GWh x 15% = 495GWh for 4Q, so PowerSeraya shall enjoy an additional gross margin of 495 GWh x SGD9.80/MWh = SGD4.85 million just for the vesting contracts.

Kenanga raises tp for YTLPower by 17% to RM2.50 as it raises net profit projections to RM2.17bn in FY2024 and RM2.06bn in FY2025.

The earnings upgrade is based on sustainable strong earnings in PowerSeraya for the next 2-3 years underpinned by strong retails margin and low gas prices locked in during pandemic time. This is a good update after management briefing.

This paves the way for further upgrade as YTLPower reports strong quarterly result for Q1 FY2024 in Nov 2023, which will show that Kenanga has under-estimated its earnings projection for FY2024. My projection for FY2024 net profit for YTLP is still RM3.2 billion or EPS of 40 sen, so there is a potential scope of 50% upgrade from Kenanga as YTLP delivers the next 2 quarterly results.

@Apple888, the proposed share buyback y YTL Power will be a good move.

Typically it will support the company share price when it gets sold down unreasonably. The shares bought back usually up to 10% of company total outstanding share base will go into treasury and may be distributed to us all as share dividends, or get cancelled out to reduce outstanding shares & hence increase earnings per share.

As stated before, YTL Power operating cash flows are very strong for FY2024 and FY2025, estimated at almost RM3.2 billion or 40 sen per share every year. After allocating some RM1.0 billion for capex for new data centre projects and Yes 5G expansion, it will still have some RM2.2 billion for potential cash dividends (estimated at 15 sen per share or RM1.2 billion) and share buyback (balance RM1.0 billion to buy some 5% or 400 million shares each in FY2024 and FY2025)

@sasukeuchiha, I don't have any maintenance schedule of PowerSeraya.

As you may know, PowerSeraya has various types of gas fired and oil fired plants. As one plant goes under scheduled maintenance, it can run up other plants to cover the generation though the cost of generation may be higher than the combined-cycle unit under maintenance. PowerSeraya can also enter into contracts-for-differences (CFD) with other gencos who have spare capacity to cover the generation.

It is the unscheduled or forced outages that may disrupt the generation for few hours or more, as it takes time to run up other units on standby or enter into a CfD with other gencos. As some of the gas units of PowerSeraya are getting old, so the forced outage rate is unavoidably becoming higher as each year passes. But in any event, such modern gas units do not cause forced outage rates beyond 5% typically a year.