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2023-09-01 14:11 | Report Abuse
As I stated before, RE import to Singapore is no easy task. To Singapore, security of supply will be of paramount importance. To bring in RE via undersea power cables from Australia or Indonesia will involve huge costs and invite great concerns on power security. Just imagine if the undersea power cable from Indonesia were to be cut off abruptly for whatever reason, Singapore would experience a sudden drop in power supply and it might cause a national blackout. No country would tolerate such a scenario, hence the EMA will demand extra safety precaution measures, extra redundancies in power design, extra battery storage capacity for such a single large solar power supply (2,000MWp), certainty of financial supports to fund the project to completion, huge penalty clauses on any project default etc. All these will add costs to the project and risks to project developer, besides taking the demand risks (price and volume) & supply risks (weather conditions, sea conditions etc).
2023-09-01 14:06 | Report Abuse
There will surely be competition for RE import into Singapore, I can guarantee you.
Recall that there was an even more ambitious project to bring in 4,000MW of solar power all the way from Australia via undersea power cables, but that project was already dead before the tender starts.
2023-08-30 17:45 | Report Abuse
Last minute a big fund buying up 3 million shares of YTLPower, trying to push it to close at 2.18 but some retailer chicks took profit and pushed it to close at 2.14.
Anyway, the profit taking on YTLPower seems to be over after almost 30m shares came out today on T+3 from last Friday huge 73m volume. Hold tight.
2023-08-30 17:40 | Report Abuse
You are probably right pang72.
I was puzzled with the huge volume of YTL today but after seeing your comment, I think it was likely a married deal between two foreign funds.
Posted by pang72 > 35 minutes ago | Report Abuse
4.45pm 74mils transaction
5.50pm 149mils transaction..
Last 5mins around 70mils makan syiok Syiok...
GREAT MOMENT
2023-08-30 15:08 | Report Abuse
You can check back a The Star news last year where the paper interviewed YTLP executive director Dato' Yeoh after the disposal of Electranet. Dato' Yeoh confirmed that the company would be in net cash position at the holding company level after the completion of Electranet disposal.
2023-08-30 15:04 | Report Abuse
and some further differences in debt amounts due to exchange rate fluctuations:
Wessex debt of 2.3b pounds has become RM13.8 billion at 1 pound = RM6.00 now compared to RM5.50 last year
Jordan debt of US$1.5b has become RM3.0 billion at USD1.00 = RM4.55 now compared to RM4.10 last year
PowerSeraya debt of SGD2.0 billion has become RM6.8 billion at SGD1.00 = RM3.40 now compared to RM3.05 last year
So total debts at these 3 assets level have gone up by RM2.1 billion in ringgit terms, but YTLP has since seen few hundred million of ringgit of operating cashflows (say RM700m) since Dec 2021, so its net cash position has become
RM2.2bn (last May) - RM2.1bn + RM700m = RM800 million very roughly
2023-08-30 14:56 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, please see calculations below which I did in last May on YTL Power's net cash position. There has not been much difference in YTLP balance sheet since then except for the increase in gross cash holdings after the disposal of Electranet.
Cash holdings and Debts
YTL Power disposed off its 35% stakes in Electranet Australia for RM3.05 billion in Feb 2022. This effectively turns YTL Power into a nett cash company at the holding level.
Investors may be deterred by purely looking at the massive debts at YTL Power’s balance sheet. These debts are high as YTL Power consolidates debts of various subsidiaries which are mostly ring fenced at the subsidiary level. For instance, Jordan Attarat Power may have total borrowings of USD1,500 million and YTLPI may have consolidated RM2.7 billion of debts in its balance sheet. But this debt is fully ring fenced at the project company level Attarat Power, meaning that any default at Attarat Power will not cause any cross default nor have any repercussion to YTL Power level. These debts will be serviced solely by Attarat Power with its own operating cash flows and YTL Power will not need to pump in any money to help servicing the borrowings there.
As of 31 Dec 2021, YTL Power has total debts of RM30.8 billion on its balance sheet and gross cash holdings of RM10.3 billion, hence nett debt of RM20.5 billion. An estimated RM12.8 billion of nett debts sit in Wessex Waters company level, RM6.0 billion in PowerSeraya, RM2.7 billion in Attarat Power. PowerSeraya may have cash of SGD200 million and Attarat Power USD300m. Hence, after we remove nett debts ring fenced at subsidiary level, YTLPI actually may have nett debts of RM20.5b – 12.8 – (6.0 – 0.6) – (2.7 – 1.2) = RM0.8 billion. This is lower than the estimated nett debt of RM1.1 billion by Maybank analyst and RM7.4 billion by CIMB analyst.
After the disposal of Electranet for RM3.05 billion, YTL Power will turn to a nett cash position at holding level with estimated nett cash of RM2.2 billion or 27 sen per share.
2023-08-30 12:48 | Report Abuse
Installation of 1,000MW solar PV will require capex of some RM3.0 billion (excluding land cost). Assuming 80% gearing, such a project will require equity investment of RM600 million.
As projected above, YTLP will have over RM2.5 billion of operating cashflows a year from FY2024, assuming dividend payouts of 15 sen or RM1.2 billion a year, YTLP will have no issue of funding a 1,000MW solar PV farm every year for next 2-3 years.
2023-08-30 12:43 | Report Abuse
@faiz, yes the newly released NETR has set very ambitious goals. Of note is the projected new installation of solar power as per following timeline:
2023-2030 - 7,000MW
2030-2040 - 27,000MW
2040-2050 - 57,000MW
This is mind-blogging target as it expects a total of 91,000MW of new solar power installation over next 27 years. Just look at the capex requirements - 7,000MW solar PV by 2030 will require investments of RM21 billion minimum and 27,000MW in next decade will require investments of RM81 billion minimum. Who has the financial power to install so much solar power??
Tenaga of course has the financial power but Tenaga just announced it will invest some RM90 billion over next few years to upgrade the national power grid. How much more capital or new funding can Tenaga raise? Tenaga already had net gearing of over 70% and net debt of over RM50 billion as of 31 Dec 2022.
For comparison, YTL Power had some RM1.0-2.0 billion net cash at the holding company level and has over RM2.5 billion of operating cashflows every year from FY2024.
From the projected 7,000MW solar PV new installation required by 2030, I would expect YTL Power to bag some 1,000MW at least. At low teen IRR, such a 1,000MW solar PV project would contribute some RM350 million of EBITDA a year to YTL Power.
2023-08-30 09:17 | Report Abuse
YTLPower Yes 5G unveiled its Pakej 5G Rahmah plans yesterday, which is priced at RM35/month for 100GB 5G data and unlimited calls with RM240 5G phone bundle.
This is even better than the government's rahmah plan of RM60/month for 60GB 5G data.
With these unbeatable 5G plans, Yes will be able to quickly grab market share to achieve a critical mass to support its expansion plan.
With an average of RM60/month (a mix of RM98, RM58 and RM35/mth), Yes would be able to achieve revenue of
RM60/mth x 12 x 1m = RM720 million a year
At an assumed EBITDA margin of 35%, Yes would contribute EBITDA of RM250 million a year to YTLPower for 1 million 5G subscribers, and RM500 million a year for 2 million 5G subscribers.
2023-08-29 15:08 | Report Abuse
@yong1985cm, I was also puzzled with the conflicting figures of power output in The Edge article and the news article from Selangor state council.
I think the difference may lie in different phases of the WTE project. 58MW may be just the 1st phase.
2023-08-29 09:44 | Report Abuse
Thank you OTB for the support and I do think your tp of RM4.00 in 2024 should be achievable if based on traditional valuation method of 10x PER on EPS of 40 sen for FY2024.
I think it is highly possible for YTLP to achieve EPS of 40 sen or net profit of RM3.2 billion for FY2024. Just a quick check, Maybank projects a net profit of over RM2.6 billion and TA projects a net profit of RM2.9 billion for YTLP in FY2024. I think what they may have missed out slightly are:
- their perception of a normalisation of earnings from PowerSeraya from Q1 FY2024 onwards
- under-estimation of earnings contribution from Jordan Power
- not inclusion of any earnings contribution from green data centre park business yet
- continued losses in Wessex Waters well into Q4 FY2024
- continued losses in Yes 5G business
YTL Power will need to prove its earnings power from PowerSeraya in Q1 FY2024 in Nov 2023 first then more steady earnings from Jordan Power from Q3 FY2024 (hopefully the arbitration case will have favourable outcome by then), then maiden earnings contribution from green data centre park business and turnaround of Wessex Waters from Q4 FY2024.
By end Nov 2023, I hope local analysts can switch their valuation method from sum-of-parts back to traditional PER method once they see steady earnings from YTLP and upgrade target prices to over RM3.50.
Furthermore, if YTLP delivers dividend of 15 sen as expected for FY2024, then it does not make sense for local analysts to still keep their SOP valuation at RM2.20-2.30 for dividend yield will be the highest among blue chip stocks.
2023-08-28 17:15 | Report Abuse
Ya the outlook is good with expandable business model. I was just concerned with the big capex incurred in FY2023, and am not sure of its capex plan for FY2024 and beyond.
I hope the big capex spent on upgrading existing stores in FY2023 has helped the company to maintain the gross margin of 60% and the capex spent on new stores will provide revenue growth into FY2024.
2023-08-28 12:42 | Report Abuse
Bonia released a set of decent quarterly result for Q4 FY2023. Revenue for Q4 FY2023 dropped slightly compared to last year as Hari Raya this year came in early April 2023 so some of the festive buying was already realised in Q3 FY2023. The good thing is Bonia managed to maintain gross margin of 60% in Q4.
Operating cashflows (before working capital changes and capex) remained strong at RM71 million for FY2023. Capex was unusually high at RM48.2m in FY2023 vs RM9.7m in FY2022, as it opened 5 new boutiques and carried out rebranding effort in FY2023.
Final dividend of 2.0 sen was well expected but the special dividend of 4.0 sen fell short of market expectations, if compared to its special dividend of 12.0 sen last year. I think there are probably 2 reasons for the lower special dividend in FY2023 - 1) much higher capex incurred in FY2023, 2) the disposal of SBG is not complete yet.
Bonia has proposed to dispose off 30% stakes in SBG to its founder for RM17.6 million and this deal is expected to complete in 2H2023. I think we can look forward to a higher special dividend in FY2024 as the completion of this disposal will bring in extra 8.8 sen of cash in addition to projected operating cashflows of over 35 sen per share in FY2024.
2023-08-28 11:32 | Report Abuse
FYI, TM has 3.06 million unifi subscribers with average monthly fee of RM130. These will be the low hanging fruits for YTL Yes to target at.
2023-08-28 11:24 | Report Abuse
YTL Yes launches today 2 new super attractive 5G packages with unlimited 5G data and uncapped speed for RM58 a month with no duration commitment and for RM99 a month with 24 month plan and a free 5G router (worth RM1,199).
Compared to a standard TM unifi wifi package of 300MBps at RM168.50 a month, the Yes 5G plan at RM99 a month will offer great savings while higher speeds supporting 6 devices. I am confident such a new Yes 5G plan will gradually grab market shares from TM unifi and other telcos' broadband wifi offerings.
A quick calculation shows that 1 million 5G subscribers at RM99/month will add revenue of RM99m a month or RM1.2 billion a year for Yes. Assuming 35% EBITDA margin (lower than TM EBITDA of 42% and CelcomDigi EBITDA of 46%), Yes would contribute EBITDA of RM420 million to YTLP a year.
Note: CelcomDigi postpaid 5G package is still higher priced than Yes if we add the RM10 extra fee to Celcom's RM98/mth and Digi's RM90/mth package.
2023-08-25 17:39 | Report Abuse
Good closing at new high!! Congras to those who hold on.
Suggestion to those who chickened out this afternoon - try to buy back below RM1.90. The uptrend is still intact despite the ferocious profit taking this noon that appeared to scare off weak holders and short term traders.
2023-08-25 14:43 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, yes it is important to track next quarterly earnings of YTLP to see any drop in PowerSeraya earnings after the implementation of TPC. I personally think the impact from TPC will be minimal but many are not convinced including some local analysts.
To be conservative, I have removed any contribution from long generation sales into the wholesale pool market from Q1 FY2024 onwards. If you read my article, I have estimated that the long generation has generated a gross margin of S$43 million for PowerSeraya in Q4 FY2023 (vs Sembcorp's estimates of S$60 million impact on its profit for 1H2023). I have totally ignored any contribution from long generation in my earnings projection, just using the base generation which is almost fully hedged with retails contracts and vesting contracts.
3,300 GWh x S$80/MWh = S$264 million gross profit per quarter
Of course, some people may argue the high retails margin cannot sustain going forward. But I fall back to fundamentals of supply and demand, and not based on the fluctuations of wholesale pool prices. You only see that the pool prices in July 2023 had been low after the implementation of TPC, but the fact shows that USEP did shoot to max of S$4,500/MWh again on a few occasions in August 2023, and even after TPC kicked in, USEP remained at the TPC cap price of S$500+/MWh for many periods.
If you invest in shares based on taking bets on fluctuations of share prices every day, then you'd better sell all today on price strength. But you would run the risks of missing out the next rally which you would never know when it will come.
The same logic applies to electricity consumers in Singapore. If they bet on low pool prices in July 2023 and sign up for fluctuating-priced contracts, then they may run the risks of being caught with pool price spikes (like what happened in 1H2023) or sudden jump in gas prices (like in 2022) which may cause them pay S$100/MWh or S$200/MWh extra, compared to those who opt for fixed priced retails contracts and enjoy certainty of price for 2 years at a small premium of S$30-80/MWh over pool prices.
2023-08-25 12:23 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, thanks for the CIMB report.
CIMB projects net profit of RM2.0 billion only for FY2024 based on its assumption that PowerSeraya earnings will be lower from FY2024 onwards compared to FY2023. Again, it seems like YTLP management has failed to convince analysts on the sustainability of PowerSeraya earnings at the result briefing last evening.
Anyway, I see this as a good thing as it leaves room for further upgrades come Nov when YTLP is expected to post another set of stellar results.
2023-08-25 12:16 | Report Abuse
@Zhuge-Liang, my own target price for YTLP is of course higher than the local analysts' numbers. My earlier projection for YTLP share price to hit RM5.00 by 2025 was based on EPS of 40 sen and PER of 12.5x.
But apparently local analysts are reluctant to upgrade their target price to beyond RM3.00 for now. It may take time.
Again, you should assess the risks and rewards of investing, and not based on my TP.
2023-08-25 12:12 | Report Abuse
@Zhuge_Liang, Hong Leong tp for YTLP is RM2.90
Maybank report is also out, TP raised to RM2.30. The good thing is that Maybank has raised net profit projection for YTPower to over RM2.6 billion for FY2024 or EPS of 32 sen. The issue is it uses Sum-of-Parts (SOP) valuation that comes out with a low TP of RM2.30 implying a PER of 7.2x on its own FY2024 earnings projection.
2023-08-25 11:35 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, I would be happy if YTLP could report EPS of 40 sen, not dreaming of 50 sen in near future.
Again, the stock needs time to get re-rated. We may have to wait for Q1 FY2024 result to come out in Nov 2023 to see if earnings from PowerSeraya can sustain at RM700-800m PBT, then only analysts will upgrade the profit projections for FY2024 to RM2.4 billion or more.
Now even the most bullish analysts like Hong Leong and Affin only projects net profit of RM2.0b and RM2.2b for FY2024. Again patience is the key.
2023-08-25 11:31 | Report Abuse
Ya don't chase high, but stay invested for long term to reap the best benefit.
2023-08-25 11:30 | Report Abuse
My projections above may seem over bullish but even my best estimates (RM700-800m PBT) for Q4 FY2023 has been handsomely beaten by actual YTLP results. As always, the market is skeptical of such stellar quarterly results from YTLP, as they were in May 2023 when YTLP reported net profit that beat the street by a few miles.
Local analysts as usual are reluctant to upgrade YTLP after they kept a bearish view for too long and most of them missed the early upgrade cycle, so it is only natural for them to remain skeptical. Foreign analysts are more agile in upgrading, like the case of Sembcorp for which Singapore analysts from UOB or DBS have been active in revising numbers up.
Only Hong Leong research house is non-bias enough to upgrade YTLP as the numbers show. CIMB and Maybank remain silent so far as they may have issued too many call warrants and have been under-hedged with the mother share.
2023-08-25 11:23 | Report Abuse
So by 2025, YTLP should achieve total PBT of some RM1.1b to RM1.20 billion per quarter, annualised to RM4.5b to RM4.8 billion per year. Net profit should come in at about RM3.2 billion to RM3.6 billion a year or EPS of 40 sen to 45 sen.
Dividend should be 15 sen at least for FY2024 to meet YTL dividend requirement. Operating cashflows should be over 30 sen a year, supporting dividend payouts of 15-18 sen a year.
2023-08-25 11:17 | Report Abuse
@Zhuge_Liang, looking at the latest Q4 result, I am revising my projections for YTLPower as follows:
1) PowerSeraya to report PBT of RM700-800 million per quarter for next 2 years at least to FY2025
2) Wessex to report PBT of RM130-170 million per quarter only from Q4 FY2024 after another water tariff revision
3) First phase green data centre to contribute PBT of RM25 million per quarter from 2024 (Note Hong Leong report today that reported on YTL management guidance of RM100m PBT from 1st phase green data centre)
4) Subsequent phases of green data centres (secured another 200MW) to start contributing PBT of RM100 million per quarter possibly from 2025
5) Jordan power to contribute PBT of RM50-100 million per quarter from Q1 FY2024 (Note Jordan Power contributed RM350m PBT in Q4 FY2023 due to some accruals of technical service income)
6) Rawang WTE plant to start contributing PBT of RM100 million per year from 2026 increasing to RM400 million per year after project debts are repaid
7) Digital bank JV to contribute PBT of RM25-30 million per quarter from 2026 (more optimistic now after seeing encouraging earnings growth in SEA Money digital bank)
Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 46 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Dear dragon328,
Your previous posting.
Thank you.
Quote !!
By FY2024, I am projecting for:
1) PowerSeraya to report similar level of PBT of around RM800 million to RM1.0 billion a quarter
2) Wessex to report normalised PBT of RM130-170 million per quarter
3) 1st phase green data centre to contribute PBT of RM10-15 million per quarter, subsequent phases to contribute PBT of RM50-75m a quarter from FY2025
4) digital bank business to contribute PBT of around RM10-20 million per quarter
5) Jordan power is fully commissioned by then and contribute PBT of RM50 million per quarter
SO if we add up the above, PBT will top RM1,050 - 1,200 million per quarter, annualised to RM4.0 billion to RM4.8 billion a year.
After tax profit may be around RM3.0 billion to RM3.6 billion resulting in EPS of 35 sen to 45 sen.
Cashflows will be around RM4.0 billion a year or 50 sen per share, supporting dividend payouts of minimum 25 sen.
So at 5% dividend yield, YTLP should trade to RM5.00 per share, or at PER of 11x to 15x.
Unquote !!
2023-08-25 08:50 | Report Abuse
@cgtan2020, PowerSeraya should continue reporting strong earnings of at least RM600 million net profit every quarter for next 2 years. Come 2026 when Keppel and Sembcorp new units come online, supply situation will get eased out a little. Whether or not retails margin will get affected much depends on electricity demand growth in next 3 years. If demand growth is as strong as what EMA projects, then the new capacity of 1,200MW in 2026 will hardly meet the projected demand growth of 1,500MW in next 3 years. Then I will expect supply will remain tight and retails margin healthy for another 2 years to FY2027.
2023-08-24 21:57 | Report Abuse
the framework of the writeup has already been prepared in past few weeks, I only filled up the actual numbers this evening
2023-08-24 21:28 | Report Abuse
@CommonMan, I think this 3.5 sen dividend for YTL Power and 4.0 sen dividend for YTL are likely the final dividend for FY2023. Typically they announce the final dividend at the 4th quarter result.
The reason that YTLP was not able to declare higher dividend for this FY2023 is likely because they need to use the cash to pare down some debts at PowerSeraya and reserve some cash for new projects like the green data centre and solar power farm. Once such allocation is complete, coupled with continued strong earnings from PowerSeraya in FY2024, I think YTLP will have no issue of declaring dividend of 15 sen for FY2024 and YTL to declare 9.5 sen dividend for FY2024.
2023-08-24 21:23 | Report Abuse
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2023-08-24-story-h-241866920-YTL_YTL_Power_Electrifying_Up_to_Record_Profits
some simple analysis of the stellar results for your reading & comments
2023-08-24 18:11 | Report Abuse
Excellent results! Will post an update later tonight
2023-08-22 08:51 | Report Abuse
hello Pinky, I have been here since 2022. Lets hope Wellcall can catch up to RM1.80
2023-08-21 19:40 | Report Abuse
Good closing today, finally bottoming up!
2023-08-21 19:39 | Report Abuse
excellent set of quarterly result!!
Net profit jumped up 70% y-on-y and record dividend possible for this year
2023-08-21 19:37 | Report Abuse
@probability, I have put more weight on YTL Power before the start of their share price rally when YTLP was trading at RM0.72 and YTL at RM0.53 last year. Now at current prices, it is a tough call.
YTLPower will continue to see strong earnings and strong cashflows hence enabling it to declare dividends of easily 15 sen per share each year for FY2024-2025, yielding 8% p.a.
YTL may declare dividends of 9.5 sen per year for FY2024 and FY2025 as guided by Francis Yeoh, yielding 7% p.a. But YTL may have more surprises in several other things such as explosive earnings from MCement, bagging of MRT3 project, revival of HSR project, monetisation of its various assets etc.
The choice is yours.
2023-08-21 19:31 | Report Abuse
thanks cgtan2020. Ya it does look like the surge in YTL Power shares this morning was due to this inclusion into FTSE Asia Pacific index. This will enable foreign funds to put more weight onto YTL Power.
More will come when YTL and YTLP is included as KLCI component index stocks in next review.
2023-08-21 19:26 | Report Abuse
haha TeamRocket must be biting sour grapes or completely out of his mind.
Bad sentiment in China and the USA will cause YTL share to gap down 9-10% tomorrow?? What kind of logic is this?
2023-08-21 12:30 | Report Abuse
Another good thing about such WTE project is that it can replicated elsewhere. As the news article suggests, Selangor generates 10,000 tons of municipal wastes a day, and this WTE project at Rawang will burn 2,400 tons/day of wastes or about one quarter of the daily waste volume generated in the state of Selangor.
If this first project is successful, it may pave the way for further WTE projects in Selangor and other states. YTL group has several advantages in developing such WTE projects :
- YTL Power has decades of experience in developing power projects
- YTL group has long and reputable history of construction experience
- YTLP has deep pockets with net cash of over RM1.0 billion at holding level and over RM2.0 billion of free cashflows a year for next 2-3 years
- YTL/MCement has cement plants at several locations in Peninsular (Selangor, Perak and Pahang etc)
2023-08-21 12:23 | Report Abuse
At total project cost of RM4.5 billion, assuming debt to equity ratio of 80%, YTLP's share in the JV of 70%, project loan tenor of 15 years and low teen project IRR, YTL Power will inject equity money of RM630 million and in return get its share of project cashflows of RM45 million a year initially rising to RM320 million a year after project loans are fully repaid.
2023-08-21 12:11 | Report Abuse
I think this WTE project will have a net power output closer to 58MW as reported by The Edge than to the figure of 132MW stated in the news link below.
Anyway this is a good development for YTL Power as it will add a new stream of recurring income over next 30 years or so and good for MCement/YTL as it will get fly ash from the WTE project as raw materials for cement production. This WTE project has long been mooted with EIA studies already done and hence I don't expect much hurdle to its implementation. Such WTE projects are very common now and have proven very effective in dealing with the ever increasing municipal wastes with limited environmental impact to surrounding areas. Some good examples are those modern WTE plants in Singapore such as the one in Tuas south that burns 2,400 ton/day of wastes and Senoko WTE plant that burns 2,100 tons/day of wastes.
Posted by moncmondo87 > 23 hours ago | Report Abuse
To add to Ravi Kumar's reference above -
this link was posted last month - https://voiceofasean.com/government/kdeb-waste-management-power-from-waste/
2023-08-18 17:04 | Report Abuse
Yes, fundamentally MCement should be worth over RM5.00 by any measure
2023-08-18 15:21 | Report Abuse
MCement is only playing catchup, Hume cement has doubled its share price. MCement should double also to RM4.50
2023-08-18 15:08 | Report Abuse
MCement adding 60 sen or over RM1.0 billion to its market capitalization, it has added over RM800 million value to YTL's 77% holdings. Interesting to see when YTL share price will catch up...
2023-08-18 14:27 | Report Abuse
MCement will either report a super good quarterly result next Friday or will see a favourable corporate exercise coming soon
2023-08-16 21:43 | Report Abuse
@moncmondo87, I have taken a look at the daily trading report from EMC. I see that TPC only started to apply from period No. 34 onwards on Monday 14th August 2023. USEP hit the max of S$4,500/MWh in period 26 and continued hitting above S$1,000/MWh until TPC came in period 34.
I remember there is some mechanism for TPC to come in, at certain lag of 24 periods or 48 periods after the forecast demand is higher than forecast supply. But I cannot find the TPC paper from EMA website anymore.
Anyway, it is still possible for USEP to hit S$4,500/MWh for some periods up to 24 or 48 before TPC comes in.
Whenever USEP hits S$4,500/MWh, you know that the supply is very tight.
2023-08-16 16:31 | Report Abuse
If you look at SEA financials more deeply, it still registered good operating cashflows with cash balance swelling to US$7.7 billion as of 30 June 2023. Though it may incur higher capex and some accounting losses in next few quarters, but as long as operating cashflows continue to be strong, I don't see any problem for the group in expanding its businesses.
It was not an easy task for SEA to turn around with net profit of over US$300m in June 2023 quarter from a loss of over US$1.0billion last year. The management has done a good job in cutting costs and terminating loss-making ventures, as evident from consecutive 3 quarters of profits.
To note is that its digital bank business, SEA Money registered good growth of 53% in revenue to US$428 million and achieved adjusted EBITDA of US$137 million. Total loans receivables remained stable at around US$2.0 billion with non-performing loans remaining stable at 2%.
2023-08-16 16:21 | Report Abuse
Anyway, SEA has only committed to the first phase of 48MW data centre with YTLP's green data centre park in Kulai. YTLP has secured a larger data centre deal with GDS for 168MW, more to come.
Stock: [YTLPOWR]: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
2023-09-01 14:49 | Report Abuse
Ya I don't expect YTLPower to under-estimate any competitor, and on the other hand I also do not expect YTLPower to be overly aggressive in bidding for the RE import to Singapore if the terms and rewards are not attractive.
As mentioned yesterday, there will be huge opportunities in Malaysia itself for new solar power installations, which may be as lucrative as RE export to Singapore. Do not be overly opitimistic on RE export to Singapore, though YTLP does stand advantageous given its local presence in Singapore retails electricity market.
In any case, the market has not yet priced in anything of RE export to Singapore nor any new solar power projects in Malaysia for YTLPower in its share price which trades at prospective PER of just 5x and dividend yield of 7%.