But it is still not too late now at 0.865 if one has a long term view, as we expect it to gradually be re-rated to RM1.50 or above by year end.

Insiders who knew about this policy change already scooped up YTL shares in the morning

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/658434

Good news for YTLPower. This will pave the way for export of power to Singapore

wow powerful surge of YTLPower will hopefully pull up YTL along

ks55, ya my preference is also for HSR to terminate at Nusajaya JB rather than spending double the money just to extend it to Jurong Singapore.

Save that money and extend the HSR north to Penang better

good call hng33

good call hng33

But without government funding support, it would be a tall order to push through the project which itself may not be feasible. So it will remain a pipe dream for many years to come

It is a real pity that such a great project was cancelled twice by Tun M administration, first in 1998 era when the original proposed cost was just RM15.5 billion for the 350km project, and secondly in 2018 after PH took over and Tun M became PM again. In 2018, the whole project had been fully negotiated with Singapore and the southern portion had been awarded to YTL consortium.

The fact that Singapore government had endorsed and supported the HSR project clearly shows the importance and significance of this project, and the enormous economic benefits it would bring. Unfortunately, it was terminated one-sidedly by Malaysia citing high debts in Malaysia. I fully agree with what Anthony Loke said about the potential revival of this project. If a private consortium can come out and fund it, why not revive it?

It will give a huge boost to the construction and property sector, as well as tourism in future.

I think we should look at the KL-Singapore HSR from a different perspective, it would offer something really different from what we have now. It will be a game changer.

KL-Singapore remains the busiest air routes in the world with over 30,000 flights a year, carrying over 4 million passengers. Air tickets from KL to Singapore are getting expensive as fuel oil prices remain at elevated level above US$80/bbl, especially during holidays/CNY/GE seasons.

It would take just 90 minutes to commute from KL to Singapore and vice versa on a HSR, compared to over 2 hours on flight + waiting time + check-in time and over 4 hours on car or double-track commuter train. Time is of essence for business people, and the short commute time of 90 min for HSR will help them a lot in making day trips. Furthermore they can read and work or rest on HSR, a great advantage over driving on roads.

Of course the HSR fee would not be cheap but should be cheaper than a flight ticket. It would be definitely cheaper to drive a car especially for a family of 2 or more, but if they can save on one night of accommodation if taking HSR, then the overall cost may be cheaper.

One should go and try at least once the HSR in China, it is truly impressive and I would like to see such an option here in Malaysia. Just imagine if we could take HSR from Penang to JB/Singapore for a 3-hour comfortable ride (instead of taking an overnight 9-hour bus), how much time we could save and how much we could promote economic activities and social interaction.

EPF has its own agenda when disposing shares and often the decision is not purely based on merits and fundamentals.

As we see in the case of Astro, EPF sold down its stakes in Astro aggressively after Astro reported a poor set of results in Dec 2022 and ceased to be a substantial shareholder as announced on 13 Jan 2023. Astro share price dropped to rock bottom prices below RM0.60 but today it surged up 20% to RM0.73.

So the lesson is that fundamental prevails at the end of the day and the market will sooner or later appreciate the value of the company

But I am not suggesting anyone to chase it at current price as I suspect any privatisation would not offer anything higher than RM0.75.

Privatisation cannot be discounted as Ananda would need to fork out some RM2.1 billion to buy out the remaining shares not owned by him, and would be entitled to 100% of Astro strong cashflows every year. He may then choose to re-list it few years later once Astro manages to stop the slide in subscribers

Astro operating cashflows are very strong at over RM1.0 billion every year, capex for 2023 should be lower as there will be no major sports events this year hence content costs should be lower by at least RM200m

agree with your view

@hng33, how do you see the current rally of YTLP? can break previous high of 0.815?

You seem to be good at timing the market and spotting trend reversal.

It turns out that it was not EPF who sold YTLP down last Friday as there is no bursa announcement. EPF kept selling YTL shares on 28 Feb, 1st Mar and 2nd Mar.

Fund flow statistics posted by CIMB shows that retailers sold a total of RM8.7 million worth of YTL Power last week, it was almost 11 million shares which matched the volume sold down last Friday.

So it appears to me that EPF is trying to switch more from YTL to YTLP as the latter offers higher dividend yields in near term.

EPF bought 1.44 million shares in YTLPower on 1st March when it sold 10 million shares in YTL.

Let's see if EPF sold any shares in YTLP last Friday

good advice tonywong8. Don't play contra. Hold long term

EPF disposed another 10.3 million shares in YTL on 1st March, not sure when it will end.

When it is done, the rally will be stronger as EPF may need to buy back at higher prices

EPF last sold some 10 million shares in YTL on 28 Feb 2023, that is when YTL shares shot up to 0.58 then got pressed down to 0.555. Again similar thing happened at YTLPower last Friday when its share price was sold down in the afternoon from 0.815 to 0.785 with volume of 10.8 million shares. I suspect it was EPF who sold it down.

EPF investment strategy is hard to comprehend, distorted by various withdrawals and dividend payouts at times. But at the end of the day, fundamentals prevail and EPF will start buying back as YTLP and YTL increase dividend payouts going forward

In my earlier article on YTLP in April 2022, I estimated a sum-of-parts value of RM32.2 billion for YTLP in the conservative case. This is not too far off from RAM's estimated figure of RM30 billion of realizable asset value.

The key to note from above is the word "realizable", meaning that YTLP had assets which were ready for monetization to the value of RM30 billion as of June 2022. This obviously did not include the green data centre projects yet as it only took off early this year.

It means that RAM valued the existing assets of YTLP (Wessex, PowerSeraya, Jordan, Jawa Power and YTL Comms) at RM30 billion which was even higher than my estimate in the conservative case.

In RAM report, YTLP had unencumbered cash reserves of RM6.83 billion and debts of RM7.5 billion as of 30 June 2022, translating into a net debt of RM700 million at the holding company level. I estimated the net debt to be RM800 million in my earlier article in April 2022, so not too far off.

As YTLP has received the disposal proceeds from Australia by now, so net cash at holding company level should have been at around RM0.5 - 1.0 billion level after allowing some RM300 million - RM800m of capex spending on the Kulai land and green data centre 1st phase.

The important thing to note is the unencumbered cash holdings of RM6.83 billion. This is sufficient to fund the equity portion of capex for the remaining phases of green data centre (secured jobs 200MW, unsecured 250MW) to ensure multi-year growth.

I estimate that after allowing some RM2.7 billion for the remaining 450MW of green solar data centre projects, YTLP will still have some RM4.0 billion of unencumbered cash holdings which will enable potential M&A work of RM20 billion assuming 80% gearing.

The strong operating cashflows will ensure higher dividend payouts from FY2023, and the unencumbered cash will ensure business expansion / acquisition and multi-year growth.

many ikan bilis is okay as they will chase back once their orders are makan up. As the big fish CIMB is out of the way, or they may need to buy back some YTLP mother shares if they want to issue new call warrants on YTLPower, funds buying will drive up the share price sooner or later. It is just a matter of timing, the key is to hold it patiently.

With a much higher Regulated Asset Base (RAB) now after heavy capex in past 3 years, Wessex shall reap the benefit of higher water tariffs when the approved WACC is multipled with the higher RAB to derive the capital component of the water tariffs.

This shall increase the quarterly pretax profit beyond historical highs of RM170-180m per quarter.

Thanks hng33 for highlighting the water tariff hikes in Wessex.

Wessex contributed quarterly revenue of RM1,048 million and pretax profit of RM59 million (excluding the non-cash interest provision for index-linked bonds). If water tariffs go up by say average 10% across the board, then quarterly revenue for April-June 2023 will go up by RM104 million which will flow through to the bottom line directly assuming costs and expenses remain the same as Dec22 qtr.

Hence, quarterly pretax profit from Wessex will jump to RM163 million which is not far off from its pre-covid level of RM170-180m per quarter.

today highest volume YTD, shot up to 0.58 but some party deliberately presses it down by dumping few million shares

That's correct unless the arbitration process yields any outcome to change the tariff


We are also guided that the 45%-owned oil shale plant in Jordan could potentially commence operations under the original power purchase agreement (PPA). .....RHB research

CIMB call warrant will be settled based on average prices of past 5 days including today, so they may still have motive to depress it today. Tomorrow we shall see less selling.

You will have noticed that CIMB has withheld its research report on YTL Power after its good quarterly results. Guess it will only release it after today.

Annualised this 4Q number will result in EBITDA of over S$1.0 billion a year. With China reopening its borders and Singapore tourism board projecting almost 100% jump in foreign visitors to Singapore, Genting Singapore will easily see a 20%-30% jump in EBITDA for 2023. For now, I stick to my earlier projection for EBITDA of S$1.4 billion for 2023.

Genting Singapore reported a good set of results for 4Q 2022 with revenue of S$542.5 million (+108% y-on-y, +4.4% q-on-q) and EBITDA of S$256 million (+269% y-on-y, +2.7% q-on-q). What is heartening to see is that the non-gaming revenue jumped 24% q-on-q to S$170.6 million. In this quarter, the non-gaming revenue made up 31.5% of total revenue, a big jump from 26.4% in 3Q 2022. This is almost certainly the highest ratio among regional peers. That's why my article above stressed on the non-gaming facilities of RWS, which will enable it to compete well with MBS.

I reckon that the timing is ripe for a US listing in this Q1 or latest Q2 2023, giving the growth momentum seen at RWLS and the prospect of a full casino license for Empire Resorts at New York city. The risk of getting a good valuation for its US assets will be higher beyond Q1 as US Fed continue hiking interest rates, as it may mostly impact the valuation of its Miami land and cashflow valuation of RWLV.

It is actually imperative for Genting to seek a US listing so that it can monetise its investment in RWLV and reduce its debts. In its latest report on Genting Bhd, CIMB valued RWLS at zero equity value, as it valued it at close to book value of US$4.3b minus debt of also US$4.3b. After Genting injects RWLV into a US listing say for US$4.8 billion, RWLV would be able to pare down all debts and have net cash of US$0.5 billion, and the equity value would become US$4.8 billion (zero debt). Hence in CIMB's sum-of-parts valuation of Genting, total equity value would go up by US$4.8 billion or RM20.6 billion or RM5.32 per share.

In terms of cashflows, RWLV would be getting over US$200 million of operating cashflows a year and potentially distribute all of it to its shareholders. Hence Genm and Kien Huat who would collectively own 49% stakes in the US listed entity would get almost US$100 million or RM430 million cash dividends from the US listed entity just from RWLV alone.

Fortunebull777, it is true that Genting 4Q 2022 result was dented with an impairment loss of RM304.8 million and another investment loss of RM362.9 million. I am not sure where these impairment loss and investment losses came from, and I hope these will not recur.

It was old news that LKT mentioned about a US listing in July 2021 after RWLV opened its door. He said he wanted to wait for the numbers from RWLV to pick up and confidence to return as he sought for a good timing for a US listing.

Now I think the timing is ripe for a US listing as RWLS just reported record revenue of US$237 million (+42% y-on-y) and EBITDA of US$49 million (+119% y-on-y) for 4Q 2022 quarter, a big jump from 4Q 2021. Hotel occupancy increased to 88% and average hotel room rate increased to US$240+.

This is encouraging as the annualised result of this 4Q 2022 almost reaches my projected EBITDA of US$204 million for 2024 in my article above. With such a momentum, RWLS may be able to achieve EBITDA of US$240 million in 2023. At a valuation of 20x EV/EBITDA or 5% cashflow yield, Genting may be able to get a value of US$4.8 billion for injecting into a new US listing. The IPO proceed would be more than enough to settle all outstanding debt of US$4.3 billion at RWLS, making it debt free and hence EBITDA of US$240m would equate operating cashflows of US$240m as there would be no more debt service interests (currently at c. US$195 million a year).

@twynstar, if you look at Genting's 3Q 2022 financial reports, it had total debts of RM41.2 billion and cash of RM23.0 billion, so net debt = RM41.2b - 23.0b = RM18.2 billion.

The cash proceeds of RM26.3 billion would be from the injection of 100% Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLS) valued at US$6.0 billion into the new US listing and getting all cash option of US$6.0 billion or RM26.3 billion, without having any stake in the new US listed entity. Genm would inject its Empire Resorts in exchange for cash and a 37.4% controlling stake in the US listed entity. Kien Huat would own another 11.6% in the US listed entity such that Genm/Kien Huat would own a collective 49% stake in the US listed entity.

ya same thinking here. It would be good for me to accumulate more towards 0.70.

the fake news of new gaming tax, inheritance tax and all sort of rubbish taxes is all slander by certain parties like CIMB for own agenda to depress the share price of Genting

The market is cautious today before the budget this afternoon and ahead of 1 year anniversary of Ukraine-Russia war

Earning drivers for this Q3 will be from the utilities division and cement division. Construction division shall hopefully make meaningful earning contribution in coming quarters.

Dividend for FY2023 should be able to beat the 3.0 sen declared for FY2022.

Operating cashflows in Q2 were strong at RM1,318 million, enough to fund capex of RM985 million and dividend payouts of RM329 million.

Net debts were stable at around RM31.5 billion as of 31 Dec 2022, most of which sit at various subsidiary levels (YTL Power, MCement etc), with about RM750 million of net debt at the holding company level.

YTL reported a good set of results for Q2 with net profit of RM97 million.

The major profit contributor was the utilities division under YTL Power which reported a good RM200m net profit for the quarter, spurred by strong earnings of RM300m from PowerSeraya and maiden profit of RM42m from the green data centre park.

The cement division made a decent RM52 million profit before tax, lower than last year RM114 million due to higher coal prices in Oct-Dec 2022. As coal prices have retreated by 50% since early Jan 2023, we can expect good profit rebounds in Mcement in Q3.
One notable profit contributor was from the hotel division which made a pretax profit of RM49 million in Q2, a good turnaround from last year loss.

Construction division saw lower profit in Q2 due to timing of work recognition. It should rebound in coming quarters as YTL is carrying out few billion ringgit of jobs for the green data centre park and warehouses for 3rd parties.

As for Jordan power plant, I understand that though commercial operations might have started in Nov 2022 but most of the activities on the ground were mainly mining of oil shale and testing of the power generating units after so many months of mothballing.

The actual commercial generation will start in this Q3 and hopefully we shall see maiden profit contribution from Jordan project to YTLPI in this Q3 and full contribution in Q4.

The operating cashflows for the 6 months to Dec 2022 were strong at RM1,188 million, enough to fund capex of RM890m and dividend payouts of RM288 million in the 6 months.

Net debt stood at RM21.3 billion as of 31 Dec 2022. As I derived before, most of these debts sit at the various subsidiary levels (Wessex, PowerSeraya and Jordan). The holding company was actually in a nett cash position of about RM400-1,000 million.

If you have probably noticed, the investment holding activities contributed a hefty RM42.5 million profit contribution to YTLPI in this Q2. As explained in the notes, these investment holding activities are mainly from the green data centre park and digital bank ventures. As the digital bank has not started commercial operations, most of this RM42.5m profit should have come from green data centre park project. And as announced by the company before, the company has just started work on the first phase of 48MW green data centre park. It is amazing that just the 1st phase of 48MW has generated RM42.5m profit in one quarter, though most of which was construction profit. Just imagine when the work on remaining 200MW secured data centre jobs start to roll, and the company manages to secure another 250MW data centre jobs for the Kulai site which has a capacity for total 500MW data centre park.

YTL Power Q2 results continue to show strength with net profit closing to RM200 million.

Again PowerSeraya carried the weight by posting RM300 million of pretax profit contribution to YTLPI, up from RM280m in Q1.

As hng33 has mentioned above, Wessex suffered a temporary loss of RM16 million in Q2. The loss was mainly due to interest accruals on index-linked bonds, a non-cash impact of RM75 million. Without this one-off impact, Wessex would have recorded a PBT of RM59 million, a big improvement from Q1.

Again, as I mentioned earlier, the weak results from Wessex in past few quarters were due to high inflation resulting in high operating costs, and such higher costs will be reflected into higher water tariffs in the future. The tariff will be due for adjustment from 1st April 2023, lets keep an eye on how much additional revenue Wessex will be getting in next quarter.

So it appears to me that the selldown in Genting Bhd shares in past few days was due to insiders' knowledge of the much lower PBT for Q4 (because of 2 one-off items of other investment loss and impairment loss).

It could also partly be the weak market sentiment and foreign funds selling as these funds had collected over RM36 million worth of Genting shares since early Jan 2023. Such offloading should be over by now as there has been over 10 million shares sold in past few days.

Personally I do not think there will be any new gaming tax in the budget tomorrow as rumuored by certain parties.

Genting Q4 result was not too bad, still reporting a positive profit before tax of RM119.8 million despite a big loss in other investments of RM362.9 million and a huge impairment of RM304.9 million. Without these 2 one-off items, pretax profit would have been RM787.6 million, higher than last year Q4 of RM734.5 million.

Operating cashflows for the 6 months to Dec 2022 were strong at RM5.27 billion, enough to fund total capex of RM2.08 billion and pare down borrowings by RM2.35 billion.

Finance costs only increased slightly from RM470m in Q3 to RM484m in Q4, indicating that most of its debts are fixed rate bonds or term loans, not affected by the rising interest rates in the US.

Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLS) achieved record high revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin since opening, which is heartening. Hotel occupancy and average daily rate in Q4 was 88.9% and US$269.70, a substantial increase from 79.6% and US$223.50 in 2021.

The current management is particularly weak in corporate finance and taxation.

This is visible from the super high taxation rate of 45.4% in Q4 2022, and unbelievably high cash tax rate of 62.7% in 2022. Just imagine, for RM211.4 million of pretax profit registered for 2022, AEON paid cash tax of RM132.5 million. I checked with AEON public relation officer and the reply was that the high taxation rate was due to cukai makmur and some disallowed items for tax deduction. That simply did not explain a thing.

The company accounting team has allowed the lease liabilities to balloon to a whopping RM1.612 billion, almost reaching 90% of total equity of RM1.80 billion. The reply from the company was that these lease liabilities are capitalised long term leases from third party shopping malls. They charged out total RM258.7 million of lease liability interests and payments into cashflows statements in 2022. This implies an averaged 6 year of leases being capitalised. One would question why they need to capitalise so much of such lease liabilities and whether such practice has unintentionally increased the cash tax payments to the taxman while increasing the accounting profits.

i3lucker

Your point on AEON having reduced issue of shoplifting compared to the old Carrefour may be right, but we should not overlook the other shortcomings of the current AEON management.

The utmost responsibility of the management of a listed company is to safeguard shareholders' interests and manage the company well to create more value for the shareholders. Otherwise why bother with listing?

The current management seems to have focused on the wrong things without clear strategy on how to expand and improve earnings.

They have spent millions of dollars on digital transformation which has obviously yielded little result (note online revenue was only RM24m for 2022, not even 1% of the annual revenue). Though it may have incorporated and digitised data from hundreds of suppliers but this has not transformed into any apparent saving in bulk purchase. Total revenue may have increased by 6% in Q4 but earnings fell over 60% from last year.

The management has not got the maintenance and expenses in check, allowing it to eat into the profit (net profit fell 65% from Q4 2021) as well as cashflows (capex has doubled to over RM110 million in 2022 compared to RM65m in 2021).

They have replaced a local good capable MD in Samsuddin with 3 Japanese (1 MD and 2 deputy MDs), obviously the salary and remuneration package is different for these 3 expats, and they seem to be irreplaceable (one of them is the son of AEON founder) and are here to stay for years.

They may not be well verse with the local retails market and hence the strategy being implemented has resulted in much higher expenses and lower profits.

The only saving grace is a final 4.0 sen dividend, which can support a share price of RM0.70.

Operating cashflows are still strong but a lot were spent on high maintenance costs, high lease liabilities and useless promotional activities