@Permutation, I am not good at reading technical charts, but purely looking at the short term chart with MACD still in the 38th day of dead cross, the short term chart indeed looks bearish.

But any bearish chart may change to bullish if the stock price stages a strong rebound like >10% in a day or 20%-30% within a week. I have no crystal ball to foretell when the chart will turn bullish.

I am more towards a fundamental investor, my strategy is always buy on weakness and add more when the share price goes lower than my initial purchase price, as long as the company fundamentals remain intact.

The government announces today that electricity grid Third Party Access (TPA) will be available from September 2024 onwards, paving the way for private RE developers to negotiate directly with RE consumers or to export RE to Singapore since the export ban has been lifted.

The limitation is still the 200MW inter-tie between Malaysia and Singapore. Otherwise this will benefit all solar power developers like YTL Power, Solarvest and Tenaga. YTL Power has the competitive advantage in a ready offtaker in PowerSeraya across the straits.

I maintain the assumption that YTL Power will continue supplying 100MW of RE to Singapore beyond 2025 and be able to earn some RM200m profit a year from such initiative.

I am pretty relaxed now and won't look at it every moment, will buy more when it hits some temporary bottom.

But to those short term traders or those investors with limited capital left to average down, the falling share price is devastating. You may want to adopt some form of cut loss strategy.

I remember during the long rally of YTL Power share price, there were a few bumps along the way:

1) YTLP share price surged to a high of RM0.83 in April 2022 only for it to drop back to RM0.60 in June 2022

2) It rallied up to RM1.33 in May 2023 then got sold down heavily in June 2023 to RM1.15 due to the news of Singapore implementing Temporary Price Cap from July 23

3) It then rallied up to a high of RM2.20 in Aug 2023 then got sold down to RM1.80 in Oct 2023 for no obvious reason

4) It rallied up strongly in Jan 2024 to a high of RM4.24 and then dropped heavily to a low of RM3.50 in early March 2024

5) It further surged to a high of RM5.48 in May 2024 only to drop back to RM4.61 in June 2024

Some of the selldown was with no obvious reason, at least the reason remains unknown to me till now. So I will not speculate further who is selling IOIPG recently, as I will never know it exactly. Foreign funds sold some IOIPG some RM15m worth of IOIPG last week only to buy back some RM7m yesterday, so nobody knows how they will play it out.

Ya it is disheartening to see IOIPG share price dropping everyday non-stop.

But now I don't bother much about who is selling or why they are selling, I just fall back to fundamentals. As long as the fundamentals of the company have not changed to the worse, I will continue to accumulate the stock. Better now when somebody else makes the effort to depress the share price for us to collect cheaper.

I got the data from HL daily update messages via whatsapp.

I still cannot find the daily fund flows data in Bursa website, though @sg999 has sent me a link to Bursa that shows the weekly fund flows data.

HL data shows that foreign funds turned net buyers of IOIPG yesterday with a net purchase of RM7 million, while local funds became the net sellers with sale of RM8 million worth of IOIPG shares.

Interesting.

Otherwise, I will have to wait till tomorrow morning to see the summary report from HL

@sg999, I cannot find the relevant report on IOIPG trading details in the link you provided above. Can you please provide a more specific link or extract out the relevant data? Thanks

Big sell down last minute, should be by foreign funds. Will know it tomorrow.

IOIPG is on cheap sale now, with share price almost 10% cheaper than the price when I first recommended it.

With Shenton House parked under IOIPG and with Marina View Residences and IOICB start contributing earnings from 2025, IOIPG is on track to triple its net profit from currently RM800m in FY2024 to over RM2.4 billion by FY2026.

IOIPG is trading at prospective PER of just 4.6x FY2026 earnings and 4.2x FY2027 earnings. Buy!

That's the reason I have assumed the 100MW power export to Singapore from YTL Power to continue after the 2-year trial period in end of 2025, just because that is not much option for Singapore. The recently launched ENEGEM pilot project shall add more weight to my assumption.

Yes good news to Malaysia, as there ain't many choices for Singapore. They really need to look at upgrading the inter-tie between Malaysia and Singapore to allow higher power flows of up to 1,000MW. That would provide good chance to Malaysian power developers to export RE to Singapore.

Tenaga will benefit from the TPA and wheeling charges, without itself spending capex in new power plantup, as Tenaga is looking to spend RM60-80b in next few years to upgrade the power grid alone.

I think the sentiment will be different and positive if the share price jumps above RM2.50 by the time the EGM is held. Until then, we just hold on.

Yes that is the general sentiment towards RPT. IOIPG management should take note of such negative sentiment from the investment public and do the necessary to convince minority shareholders of the merits of the proposal.

Anyway disgruntled shareholders can just go and debate with IOIPG management at the EGM on the merits or disadvantages, and vote down the proposal if still not convinced by the management explanation.

The ENEGEM pilot is another trial project by EMA to utilise existing inter-tie between Malaysia and Singapore, which is at a max 200MW one way. PowerSeraya or YTL Power may participate in the bid. Who knows we shall win it again?

The 100MW trial import to Singapore has been won by YTL Power. Thanks for reminding.

The Laos hydro import project has hit a speed bump as confirmed by the news last week. How many times these people still want to bring up this?

YTL Power remains as the cheapest utility stock in Bursa. This is confirmed by a CIMB report dated 12th July 2024 after its site visit to Wessex UK.

The report states that YTLPower was trading at 13x PER of FY2024 earnings when YTLP share price was at RM5.15 then. Now at RM4.70+, YTLP is trading at just 11.7x PER of FY2024 earnings.

In comparison, the report states that Tenaga was trading at 22.9x PER, PetGas at 19.1x and Malakoff at 16.6x FY24 earnings.

The YTLP-Nvidia collaboration in AI data centre has been well documented, and the progress of the 100MW AI data centre has been well reported by a few analysts like RHB and Ambank. Even foreign analysts like CLSA and Macquarie have given very detailed coverage on the AI data centre JV and potential earnings contribution.

My estimate of net profit contribution of RM940m a year from 100MW of AI data centre is on the conservative side, if compared to earnings projection made by AmResearch or CLSA analysts.

Anyway it is not my wish for IOIPG major shareholders to take IOIPG private, just to make it clear. I want to invest in this company and ride on its growth for many years to come.

While it made sense for them to take it private, but I do not think they would do it.

The selldown in recent days could be done by certain syndicates or parties trying to press down the share price, and frustrate minority shareholders who will then go and vote down the Shenton House proposal in the EGM later.

It is just my wild guess, true or not, only time will tell. But it does not bother me as I will just hold on and ride through these few months of volatility. I believe at the end of the day, common sense prevails and fundamentals speak louder than any short term plays. IOIPG will see its bright day eventually as strong earnings growth kicks in.

Francis Yeoh typically only initiates share buyback when the company share price is at depressed level like in last year when YTL/YTL Power share prices were trading at below 70 sen. He doesn't need to buy more shares to support the share price now, as most fund managers and analysts have recognised the value of the company.

Looks like syndicates are quite determined to press down the share price to RM2.00 then RM1.80 for whatever reason. Just need to hold on through the rough ride, I believe we shall see clear sky ahead.

@raymondroy, thanks for the comforting words.

But just feeling bad for fellow investors who bought in after my Buy call and the share price started sliding down non-stop.

Myself is ok to withstand such short term price downtrend as I intend to hold it for years, but some fellow investors may have cut loss if their investment horizon is short term

@raymondroy, YTL has already registered net profit of RM1.56 billion for the 9 months to 31 Mar 2024, up 210% y-on-y. PBT amounted to RM3.57 billion for the 9 months.

I am not sure if YTL full year PBT can hit MIDF's projection of RM5.448b, but I expect the net profit to hit RM2.0 billion for FY2024, a record year and up 200% y-on-y.

Foreign funds net sold a total of RM7 million worth of YTL shares yesterday with no notable selling on YTL Power. Local funds net bought a total of RM8 million worth of YTL shares yesterday, more than enough to offset the selling of foreign funds.

Foreign funds net sold a total of RM7 million worth of YTL shares yesterday with no notable selling on YTL Power. Local funds net bought a total of RM8 million worth of YTL shares yesterday, more than enough to offset the selling of foreign funds.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-electricity-sources-natural-gas-renewable-solar-energy-import-3252076

This news link stated that the promoter for the A$30 billion project to export RE from Australia to Singapore has entered into voluntary administration. This project is a non-starter from the very beginning. To lay an undersea cable for over 5,000 km from Australia to Singapore? A$30 billion of costs? Just a joke to me

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-electricity-sources-natural-gas-renewable-solar-energy-import-3252076

This news link stated that the promoter for the A$30 billion project to export RE from Australia to Singapore has entered into voluntary administration. This project is a non-starter from the very beginning. To lay an undersea cable for over 5,000 km from Australia to Singapore? A$30 billion of costs? Just joking.

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/07/17/singapore-laos-clean-power-deal-stuck-over-transmission-sources

This news 7 days ago confirmed the power import from Laos project has hit a speed bump.

"We are also maintaining our BUY recommendation onYTL Corp, based on our SOP derived TP of RM4.19. Our TP implies 18.1x FY25F PER, which is still below YTL’s 10-year
historical mean PER. We continue to like YTL as a beneficiary of the infrastructure upcycle given its dominant share of domestic cement supply; its strategic venture into data centers and renewable energy via its utilities division. We view the proposed acquisition of NSL as a positive one for YTL."

A good straightforward comment from MIDF on YTL Cement's acquisition on NSL.

Thanks forest18 for the link.

It is good to see EPF continue buying IOIPG shares after a short break.

But who is selling big these few days? Can anyone have any clue why the sell off is so heavy pressing the share price to multi-month low?

Based on the recent site visit organised by YTL Power to its Kulai DC Park, some analysts already posted update report on the progress of the data centre construction on site. An extract from RHB analyst follows:

"• YTL Green DC Park visit. We recently visited the YTL Green Data Park in Kulai, Johor. The visit was hosted by YTL Data Centres (YTL DC) CEO Heng Wai Mun and his team. YTLP commercialised its first 8MW DC – contracted to Sea (SEA US, NR) – in May. Despite a relatively slow ramp-up by Sea, there is no major earnings impact to YTLP, given that co-location fees are based on take-up capacity rather than live capacity. Additionally, YTLP is still in talks with several potential customers on the remaining 16MW capacity, and there is still a potential for it to be configured into an AI-DC.
• 100MW AI-DC update. The first 20MW is at 70% completion and should be ready for server installation by year’s end. The remaining 80MW capacity is also still under construction and slated for a mid-2025 completion. "

Ambank Research analyst also reported the same after the site visit, saying that the 100MW AI data centre is on track for completion in 2025.

Hence, I have no reason to doubt the update reports from these analysts, and assume that the 100MW AI data centre will start contributing earnings to YTL Power in FY2025 and more meaningfully in FY2026 once fully completed.

@Mikecyc, I cannot be seen as a promoter of YTL Power anymore, but would like to answer some of your questions above.

The YTLP-Nvidia collaboration on setting up a 100MW AI data centre at Kulai DC Park is progressing as planned, with the 1st phase scheduled to get commissioned in Q1 CY2025.

The RE import to Singapore has been well documented now as Singapore EMA has already issued RFP to solicit up to 4,000MW of RE import from 2030. Many parties have since announced interests to supply RE to Singapore, from as far as Australia and Laos. But these two projects for import of solar power from Australia and import of hydro power from Laos have been declared dead as promoters have found it too difficult to implement or not feasible at all.

That would leave the viable choice as RE imports from Malaysia or Indonesia only. Malaysia government has already approved RE exports from Malaysia in early 2023 if I remember correctly, and has since pushed for legislation to enable Third Party Access (TPA) by RE producers to use Tenaga's power grid to export or to supply directly to RE consumers in Malaysia.

I start to wonder if IOIPG management's attitude is indeed like what I described above, why not just take the company private? Then they would be able to play any game they want, without any minority shareholders' objection.

Technically if the share price drops below RM1.80, it will have given up all gains YTD. It may paint a head-and-shoulder pattern with the right shoulder at around RM1.80. Below this, it will crash further down towards RM1.00 level, I guess. Don't take my words here, as I said I am not expert in charting.

FUndamentally, if the share price can drop below RM1.80, it implies that serious investors will have exited the stock and most think the company's prospects are turning negative, something really bad may be going to happen soon.

This is entirely possible, as looking at the share price movements in past few weeks and the inaction of IOIPG management, I think the IOIPG major shareholders and management do not care much about the company share price. They just do whatever they like and whatever they want for themselves and for the company, without taking care of minority shareholders' interests. They just want to make sure the company is doing okay with the new projects they propose, have enough cashflows to acquire the various assets announced recently, and have enough money to pay their fat salary or directors' fees. They need not worry about minority shareholders' interests, as long as they can carry on with their day-to-day business and take home good salary at the end of each month.

@bullrun2025, I am not sure when to stop loss as I am not good at technical charts. But normally as a rule of thumbs, I cut loss on a stock if the share price falls by 15% to 20% lower than my purchase price, or fundamentally the company's prospects have deteriorated.

My average cost of purchase is around RM2.23 after averaging down to RM2.11 today. As the share price is testing a key support level of RM2.10, I will stop buying and wait to adapt my own cut loss strategy. As it stands now, I look to cut partially when share price drops below RM2.00 and then cut off all holdings if share price drops below RM1.80.

That's for me. You need to assess your own risk appetite.

Mr. OTB, yes contributions from AI data centre division will be more than enough to cover the expected softening earnings from PowerSeraya in FY2025 and FY2026.

In my earlier earnings projection in May 2024, you can see that I estimated net profit contribution of RM235m from AI data centre and RM75m from colocation data centre in FY2025, which will be almost enough to cover the estimated shortfall in PowerSeraya earnings.

I expect UK businesses (Wessex and Brabazon) to contribute more meaningful earnings to YTL Power from FY2025, which will drive an overall growth of 17% in FY2025 earnings of YTLP.

@raymondroy, PS earnings in Q4 FY2024 will be higher than that in Q3 FY2024.

All in, I expect YTLPower to register net profit higher than RM681m in Q3 FY2024.

Anyway today selling is well expected after the strong purchase by both foreign funds (RM10m) and local funds (RM15m) yesterday.

This has made YTL and YTLP share price volatile, and in a way created a good trading range for short term traders who then aggravate the volatility.

@raymondroy, you are right up there. The loss of long generation into the pool itself will erase some SGD30m from PowerSeraya's PBT in a quarter. Coupled with softened retail contract margin, we are probably looking at a 27% drop y-on-y in PS PBT.

But as said, PS last Q4 FY2023 was exceptional. Stripping out extraordinary gains of long generation, PS core PBT in Q4 FY2023 was about SGD273m, and we are looking at core PBT of SGD223m to 240m in Q4 FY2024, so a y-on-y drop of 12%-18% in core PBT.

@cwc1981, according to some veteran forumer in i3, I have been seen as over-promoting YTL and YTL Power, which have made certain parties unhappy. They may have shorted these counters or want to buy at lower prices.

So going forward, I cannot be seen as purely promoting certain stocks, but will post some negative comments to give a more balanced view on the companies I cover. I think it is also good for fellow investors who can then make own assessment of the risks and rewards of investing in the recommended counters.

So PowerSeraya will contribute net profit of RM700m max to YTL Power in Q4 FY2024. Jordan and Jawa Power are expected to contribute some RM100-120 million net profit every quarter, and Wessex is expected to at best break even. The contribution from 1st phase data centre with SEA Ltd is expected to be insignificant as only 8MW has been commisssioned since Mar 2024.

The wild card is Yes 5G business, which I hope will register smaller losses.

All in, it looks like we are looking at total net profit of RM750m to RM820 million for YTLP in Q4 FY2024, which will be a drop of almost 30% from last year record profit of RM1.1b, but will be 7%-15% higher than Q3 FY2024.

Will YTLP share price see a knee-jerk reaction of selling after posting Q4 FY2024 result? Maybe or maybe not. But I won't be bothered as I am a long term investor who aims to ride on this winning stock until its next big earnings driver of AI data centre comes into play in FY2025.

Anyway in my last projections for YTLP in late May 2024, I did forecast net profit of SGD750 million for PowerSeraya in FY2025, translating to SGD187.5 million average each quarter, which will still fall within the above range of SGD185-200 million.

Going into FY2026, retails margin is expected to face further downwards pressure as Sembcorp and Keppel new units are expected to come online in 2026. Hence I projected for PowerSeraya net profit to gradually drop to SGD600 million by FY2027.

Again I need to write something not so good about YTL Power's upcoming results.

Some fellow investors pm to express concerns on the upcoming Q4 FY2024 result of YTL Power and fear of a big selldown if the Q4 FY24 result is a lot lower than last year Q4 FY2023.

I did have a quick check on the ground in Singapore and found out that certain type of retails electricity contracts were getting affected by the prevailing low USEP, such retails contracts have electricity contract price linked to the average USEP of the month.

Though most of PowerSeraya's revenue is tied to longer term retails contracts (>80%) and vesting contracts (now <10%), the loss of long generation profit as seen in last Q4 FY2023 (April-June 2023) (estimated to be about SGD30 million) will be badly missed, especially when retails contract margin is getting affected by low USEP.

The RM1.06 billion of pretax profit achieved by PowerSeraya in Q4 FY2023 was exceptional in conjunction with super high pool & USEP prices then. PBT of RM1.06b or SGD305 million translated into net profit of SGD253 million. Minus out the estimated SGD30m of long generation profit which will not recur, PowerSeraya achieved core net profit of SGD220m in Q3 FY2023.

Due to softer retails contract margin, I would knock off 10%-15% of PowerSeraya's core net profit of SGD223m, and derive a projected net profit range of SGD185m to 200m each quarter for Q4 FY2024 and possibly Q1 FY2025 as USEP has remained depressed till mid July 2024.

Dear paktua73, thank you so much for your effort to promote my blog and to get so many new followers, but I see that many of my posts now in YTL and YTL Power forum get to stay and have not been removed since yesterday, and I don't aim to be having the most followers in i3.

But I will keep fighting the naysayers who got my posts removed, by continuously posting impartial comments on the stocks I cover. Only if my posts get removed again, then fellow investors may pm me for any info you require.

Thank you

Dear paktua73, thank you so much for your effort to promote my blog and to get so many new followers, but I see that many of my posts now in YTL and YTL Power forum get to stay and have not been removed since yesterday, and I don't aim to be having the most followers in i3.

But I will keep fighting the naysayers who got my posts removed, by continuously posting impartial comments on the stocks I cover. Only if my posts get removed again, then fellow investors may pm me for any info you require.

Thank you

As expected, IOIPG share is suffering another round of selling today after the latest acquisition news. Though the daily data does not show that IOIPG was in the top 10 counters of foreign funds selling everyday, as it only shows foreign selling or buying above RM8m or something, but I suspect foreign funds have been selling IOIPG non-stop on daily basis, perhaps at 2.0 million to 3.0 million shares (sale volume of RM4.3m to RM6.5m) a day.

I guess funds and investors are getting frustrated with the latest developments around the company and lack of actions from IOIPG management to prevent the share price crash from RM2.50 level.

Dear paktua73, thank you so much for your effort to promote my blog and to get so many new followers, but I see that many of my posts now in YTL and YTL Power forum get to stay and have not been removed since yesterday, and I don't aim to be having the most followers in i3.

But I will keep fighting the naysayers who got my posts removed, by continuously posting impartial comments on the stocks I cover. Only if my posts get removed again, then fellow investors may pm me for any info you require.

Thank you

According to latest data, foreign funds net bought a total of RM12 million worth of YTL shares and RM10 million worth of YTL Power shares yesterday. Local funds also net bought a total of RM15 million worth of YTL Power shares yesterday, hence the rally in share price yesterday.

The past few days of data shows that foreign funds are mixed / divided in YTL and YTL Power, some are taking profits, others are buying. Or some funds take profit on price strength and buy back on price weakness.

As YTL Power is very cheap at 11x PER for a large utility and AI play, despite the 7x increase in share price in one year, it makes the decision to buy or to take profit on YTL Power rather difficult to fund managers. Hence I do not expect foreign funds selling on YTL and YTL Power to be significant in next few months, after trimming more than half of their holdings in May and June 2024.