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1 month ago | Report Abuse
@Beta Ipoh, you have asked this question repeatedly and I have answered before. Not sure of your motive or just scared. Again I will say that the strengthening ringgit will make YTLP's overseas' subsidiaries' profits to be lower when translated into ringgit terms.
For example, PowerSeraya's projected net profit of S$170m for Q1 FY2025 would be translated into RM552 million at FX of RM3.25 to SGD1.00, a 6% reduction from the earlier figure of RM586m at FX of RM3.45. That's all and full stop.
More important is the underlying business operations, not the currency fluctuation. The businesses of YTL Power are all fully hedged against currency fluctuations, eg. fuel costs of PowerSeraya are fully hedged against FX and crude oil price movements.
YTL Power may not benefit from the strengthening ringgit, but rather the cooling inflation and lower interest rates in the UK, and tighter electricity supply in Singapore in next few quarters to 2026. These effects will have positive impacts on YTLP's overseas subsidiaries with potential earnings upgrade of over 5% which will negate the strengthening ringgit.
Early signs are pointing to better profits than the earlier assumed S$170m for PowerSeraya in Q1 FY2025. I am looking at a potential S$180m net profit in Q1, which will translate to RM585 million again even at FX of 3.25.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
EPF was selling some small quantities of IOIPG on 17th Sept and 19th Sept when IOIPG share price was going up on heavy volume. I suspect the buying last week was done by foreign funds, and EPF was taking the opportunity to trim some holdings that it bought below RM2.00.
The company data shows that foreign funds' holdings in IOIPG continued going up from 4.3% in April 2024 to 5.6% in May, 5.5% in June and 5.7% in July 2024.
Given that the average cost of entry for IOIPG is above RM2.00, I see little downside to IOIPG share price at this moment. But strong resistance is seen at 2.16-2.21 blocking the share price further rally.
I suspect it needs some good news to spark a new rally and the good news is around the corner, if not already happened.
One of the good news was the jumbo 50 bps rate cut by US Fed last week, which will drive Singapore rates lower and reduce interest expenses of IOIPG substantially at its Singapore subsidiaries.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
UK: Bank of England's Bailey says interest rates are gradually
heading downwards. The BoE should be able to lower interest
rates gradually as it gains confidence that inflation will remain close
to its 2% target, Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview
published. Bailey said he was "very encouraged" by the downward
path of inflation since it peaked at 11.1% nearly two years ago.
(Reuters)
1 month ago | Report Abuse
time will tell. It will fall back to below 30x PER once the initial hype is over
1 month ago | Report Abuse
AEON will have the liquidity once it declares bonus issues, and it will have sufficient retained earnings to declare 1-for-1 bonus by June 2025.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
99speedmart may have liquidity premium as funds can buy in big quantities and it is convenient for foreign funds to park their hot money for a few weeks. But over time, reality kicks in and everything will be down to fundamentals and valuation.
Just look at MyNews and MRDIY. MyNews suffered some years of losses and share price has fallen to a penny stock. MRDIY shot up to skyhigh valuation of over 40x PER upon listing but has since come down to ground with a more reasonable PER of 20-26x.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
To me, 99speedmart is overpriced at 34.9x FY2024 PER and 33x FY2025 PER for a growth of ~20% y-on-y. AEON has higher growth of over 20% in profits in FY2025.
As 99speedmart is newly listed, it is hotly traded. That reminds me of the earlier MyNews.com which had about 1,000 outlets when listed and analysts mostly projected high growth, but it all turned out to be just smoke.
When KK Mart gets listed later, investors will have a choice and simple comparison will erode any premium that 99speedmart may have now.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
I don't think 99speedmart will be included as a KLCI component stock so soon.
99speedmart is just a retails company with large network of small retails outlets, even with some 2500 outlets, its revenue is just about double of AEON's revenue. AEON has 28 shopping malls and 35 supermarket outlets. The retails margin of 99speedmart is also razor thin at less than 5%, similar to AEON's level for its retailing segment. In terms of bottom line, 99speedmart's current PBT is about double of that of AEON inline with the topline.
In terms of EBITDA, both companies are on the same level, as higher depreciation charges drag down the pretax profit of AEON. But once AEON injects its shopping malls into a REIT, the depreciation line will disappear and AEON's PBT will increase by RM450m to over RM600 million, higher than 99speedmart.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
Yes pang72, I certainly see a good chance for a second leg up for YTL Power shares to be driven by AI data centre news flows in coming months.
For a start, the announced AI tie-up with UM by YTL AI Labs is a smart move to utilise local talents to develop our own Malay large language model (LLM). UM has had an AI team set up years ago led by the prominent Professor Chan and has a small scale AI computer to do the job. Now the team can use the much larger and faster AI data centre at YTLP Kulai DC Park utilising Nvidia Hopper GPU as a start to train the LLM further.
YTLPower has allocated up to 8MW of capacity at the colocation data centre for the development of AI apps and local LLMs. Checks with Ai experts indicate that a LLM with 3 billion parameters could be trained within 2 months using Nvidia GPUs.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
AEON is boosted up today with the huge buying into 99 Speed Mart, along with MR DIY.
AEON remains one of the cheapest retails stocks in Bursa with forward PER of just 12.9x, falling to 10x in 2025.
In comparison, 99 Speed Mart is trading at 33x forward PER and MRDIY at 26x forward PER.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
HSBC has upgraded Malaysian stocks to 'neutral' from an 'underweight' call, betting on stronger corporate earnings and better liquidity while the economy benefits from strong foreign investment.
Foreign funds have been buying Bursa stocks with close to RM5 billion of fund flows from abroad in the past 3 months.
Despite the spike in foreign buying in recent months, investor positioning is still not crowded, HSBC said. The KLCI is trading at 14x forward PER, largely in line with the 5-year median.
Malaysia is well positioned to benefit from the increase in data centres amid increased demand for cloud and AI services, with large tech giants already investing heavily in the market, the house said.
"We believe utilities and industries are best placed to benefit from this trend," HSBC said.
This is evidenced from huge buying into Tenaga and YTL Power shares this afternoon.
1 month ago | Report Abuse
Yes signs of foreign funds buying in YTLP again as you can see most of the buying came in after 3.00pm, typical of European funds.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Well said @cktay.
HSR should be coming soon after President Xi expressed willingness for China companies to participate in the project. Whether or not YTL will get a portion of the mega project, MCement will be a big winner.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@Beta Ipoh, the emergence of many new data centre developers in Johor is a normal mad rush, just like the glove mania years ago. I recall property developer like Mah Sing went into glove making during the height of Covid, and now Mah Sing is rushing into data centre business as well. But most of these new data centre developers will face obstacles as explained in my above post. Soon they will realise that it would be much cost efficient to just lease data centre space at YTL Power's Kulai DC park than to develop own data centre.
YTL Power has got sufficient land at Kulai to develop 500MW of solar power farm. I expect that solar power to mainly power up the green data centres in Kulai. For RE export to Singapore, YTLP may need to look for other land in Johor.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
There was a mad rush of data centre developers to acquire land in Johor some 2-3 months ago, then we saw less activities since early August. I guess these data centre developers have realised the difficulties in setting up a green field data centre in Malaysia, particularly in Johor.
The investment environment has become less favourable to late comers in new data centre development in numerous areas:
1) Land is becoming scarce in Johor prime area especially in Kulai where it has high tension power cables and high speed fibre connections to Singapore. Land prices there have shot through the roof. YTL Power bought the 1700-acre plus land in Kulai at just RM6.00 psf some 2 years ago but land prices have since shot up to above RM120 psf. For a typical plot of land of say 50 acres for 20MW data centre development, the land cost has gone up from RM13 million to now over RM260 million. For a 20MW colocation data centre, such a land price is making up some RM260m/RM860m = 30% of the total investment cost, compared to just 2.2% for YTLP. So you can see how disadvantaged in costs for late comers.
2) I gather that the HV tension power lines in Kulai are close to max capacity, and Tenaga has been struggling to plant up new capacity to meet the new power demand from all these new data centres. Some of these new data centre developers may have signed some form of MOU with Tenaga for certain quantity of power supply, but it is non-binding to Tenaga or either party. The key to look out for is whether these new data centre developers can achieve financial close for their new data centre projects.
3) Water supply may be another issue to the new data centre developers in Johor or any other state in Peninsular Malaysia. Recall that most of the water companies in many states have been under investing in new water treatment plant capacities in past decade or so, hence the Non-Revenue Water (NRW) is high in many states and often residents and commercials get water rationing. Ranhill as the only water company in Johor is prepared to ramp up its water treatment capacities in order to meet the huge demand from new data centres, but a potential bottleneck could be in PAAB which is the state-owned enterprise that owns and manages the water piping network in Johor. PAAB may not have the financial capability to lay hundreds of kilometers of water piping fast enough to cater for the data centre needs.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@Aero1, there will be 2 call warrants on YTLP expiring on 30 September, both are issued by Maybank, the sell-side IB. So expect some dumping of YTLP shares by the IB in the last few days before 30 Sept 2024.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@UncleFollower, I agree that IOIPG's commercial properties in Singapore are neater and certainly the crown jewels for the group besides IOI City Mall.
The management has the target to ramp up tenancy at IOI Central Boulevard to 80% by this year end. Then I hope they can achieve 95% tenancy by end June 2025, and it will be ripe for injection into a commercial REIT in Singapore.
With shortages in prime office in Singapore CBD, I am confident that IOICB will achieve average rental rate of above SGD13.00 psf by end FY2025, and the valuation for IOICB could exceed SGD5.0 billion (CEO Lee once said he would expect a valuation of SGD6.0 billion for IOICB) by end FY2025 and be close to SGD6.0 billion by FY2026 when tenancy achieves 99%-100% and rental rate is revised up by 5%-8%.
Now as IOIPG has the exclusive right to develop and market Shenton House redevelopment project, it can time it such that the marketing for the redeveloped Shenton House prime office will start from FY2027 after IOICB achieves 100% tenancy to avoid competition and conflicts of interests.
The Singapore REIT of IOIPG may be expanded when W Hotel at Marina View Residences is completed and achieves steady income in FY2027. W Hotel Singapore when injected into the REIT may be worth SGD600-1,000 million which would recoup all the investment costs of IOIPG in developing the hotel.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@UncleFollower, you are likely right to point out the game plan of IOIPG, which all sounds well to me. This is evidenced from the recent purchases of W Hotel KL, Langkawi land for a hotel resort development and Tropicana City Mall, all purchased at below book value especially the last one Tropicana City Mall at almost 30% discount to book.
I expect IOIPG to turn around the business and grow them into steady cash cows then inject into REITs. When they inject the matured IOI City Mall, IOI Mall Puchong and this Tropicana City Mall into a commercial REIT in Malaysia at say dividend yield of 5.5%, the potential value of the commercial REIT may be over RM7.0 billion.
IOIPG may inject its hotels into a hospitality REIT separately when the hotels business turns around and yields steady cashflows, once the management estimated that its hotel assets would be worth some RM2.5 billion.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@Aero1, yes I do think that the AI boom will continue for at least another 1.5-2.0 years.
Oracle is not the only one bullish on the AI prospects, some other companies and analysts had predicted that the AI market size could grow to US$200 billion by 2030. Nvidia is doing US$23 billion of revenue a quarter from its data centre business division, so I guess it will double up by 2030.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Yes I agree with your arguments above.
But YTL is still cheap as a construction stock, if not seen as a conglomerate. YTL will be the key beneficial for the upcoming mega projects like MRT3 and HSR as one of the front runners to win the projects as a contractor.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
As YTL owns some 73% stake in MCement, the surging profits at MCement will help to propel YTL earnings up in next few years and to push YTL share price to double up also by 2028.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Without the impairment, EPS would have been 16 sen a quarter, annualised to 64 sen for FY2025. At a conservative PER of 10x, MCement should be worth at least RM6.00.
Based on its operating cashflows of RM930 million a year, MCement would be valued at RM13.3 billion at 7% FCF yield, or RM9.90 per share as what I had initially projected back in 2022.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@hng33, you really had a good spot here again after winning big in PBA. Indeed a sifu in stock picking!
MCement latest Q4 result shows that its debt level has reduced by RM600 million in a year, due to its super strong cash flows of RM930 million in FY2024.
Q4 net profit would have been much higher if not for an impairment of RM137m recognised in the quarter for plant and machinery at Rawang plant. Pretax profit would have been at RM281 million without the impairment and net profit about RM215 million or EPS of 16.2 sen.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@Beta Ipoh, when I said the first phase of AI data centre at YTLP's Kulai DC park is being funded by Nvidia, I did refer to the GPU part. Typically for AI data centre, the developer like YTLP charges hyperscalers who rent the facilities at USD3.00-4.00 per hour per GPU, i,e. the developer constructs the data centre and pays for the GPUs then recovers the costs from the monthly rentals collected from hyperscalers who rent the facilities.
But in the case of Nvidia at Kulai, I understand that the arrangement is slightly different in that Nvidia is likely to fund the costs of GPUs which are to be supplied from Nvidia itself and pay a lower rental rate to YTL Power for the other facilities provided at the Kulai DC park (land, power and water supply, construction costs etc.). But it may be the case that follows the norm in which YTLP charges similar rental rate of USD per hour per GPU, but based on a special price for Nvidia GPUs.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726505
A positive move by IOIPG, the new industrial park segment may be the next catalyst to propel the company higher in coming 2-3 years
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Foreign funds net bought RM11m worth of YTL Power shares and RM7m worth of YTL shares yesterday, after the big purchases of YTL last Friday and Monday.
Net short position on YTLP continued to slide down to 8.4m shares as of yesterday, and I see little short selling on YTL and YTLP today.
I sense that this MACC episode is going to be closed soon and YTL Comms will be cleared of any wrongdoing by MACC eventually.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Foreign funds net bought RM11 million worth of YTL Power shares and RM7 million worth of YTL shares yesterday. Looks like they have moved ahead of us in scooping up cheap tickets.
Net short position on YTL Power continued to slide down to 8.4m shares as of yesterday, despite new short addition of 100k shares yesterday. Today I see little short selling on YTL and YTLP too.
I guess foreign funds and short sellers already sense something ahead of us before the tide turns.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@ValueInvestor888, latest sources say MACC is no longer questioning any personnel from YTL Comms, and confidence has built up that YTL Comms will be cleared of any wrongdoing by MACC eventually.
I do not have other news but just faith in the company. Be patient to wait out this episode.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@ks55, good that you have an exit plan before even the entry. I hope you and I could get some towards RM3.00, and my cut loss point would be at RM2.70.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@Agjl, good to hear that you have made enough from YTL / MCement and YTLP. It is perfectly alright to call an exit after you have gotten your targeted returns.
As said before, YTLP is a stock only for long term investors, but it has lately become a good trading stock for both short term traders and short sellers due to the volatility. This is perfectly fine with me.
But what is not right is that some fake IDs keep spreading unfounded allegations against the YTL group. Pls note that it is an offence to spread such allegation while MACC is investigating the case.
YTL Power share price has gone up over 100% from RM2.50 in early Jan 2024 to a high of RM5.40 in May/June then succumbed to profit taking that has taken it down by 40% to RM3.30. I see it a normal trading cycle, and blips in a very long term rally that may last for few more years.
I see limited downside from here, and see the prospects of another 100% gain in making if I can get it at anything close to RM3.00-3.15, as even based on the most bearish earnings projection of EPS 37 sen for FY2025, YTL Power has the chance to trade up to RM5.55 based on 15x PER, and up to RM6.70 if based on 15x PER on my earnings projection of 45 sen in FY2025.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Despite the continued bashing by certain new IDs in this forum, YTL and YTLP shares are rebounding strongly.
I think i3 admin should block these new IDs for spreading unfounded allegation while MACC is investigating the case, or else YTL group may initiate legal actions against i3 or some of these people behind the fake IDs
2 months ago | Report Abuse
There was no more notable selling on YTLP and YTL by foreign funds yesterday. On the opposite, foreign funds bought in another RM41 million worth of YTL shares on Monday after the net buy of RM47m last Friday. Foreign funds net bought RM23m of YTL Power shares last Friday but net sold RM18m on Monday.
That shows to me that foreign funds are not bothered with all this political name tarnishing noise and focus on buying quality blue chip YTL as the share price is unjustifiably sold down.
Net short positions on YTL have dropped to negligible level below 0.1%. NSP on YTLP stays around 9.0 million shares as of yesterday, with no visible addition today itself. Share price has dropped 20% in one week and there is nothing more to short for.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
YTLP is on track with the AI data centre development, and Nvidia has committed to deliver the necessary GPUs towards end of 2024 for the first phase of its 50MW AI data centre which is being funded by Nvidia itself.
The earning contribution to YTL Power will be substantial as calculated in my earlier articles and by various analysts like Ambank and CLSA in great details.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
The equity structure on Nvidia tie-up has been made clear to many analysts who were on the briefing call after Q4 FY24 result on 23 August, it is not pricy to anyone on the street.
YTLP has very strong operating cashflows every year, totalling RM5.575 billion in FY2024, more than sufficient to fund the capex of RM3.339 billion in the year. Net debts remain stable at RM26.7 billion as of 30 June 2024, mainly ring-fenced at subsidiaries like Wessex and Jordan Power.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
While the negative sentiments cloud over YTLP share price in near term, I see potential surprises and positive developments below that may result in a meaningful rebound in YTLP share price in coming weeks / months:
1) PowerSeraya to deliver stronger earnings of over SGD200 million a quarter from Q2 FY2025 once the temporary price dumping actions by one genco ease off in coming 2-3 months after its recently secured extra gas supply tapers off
2) Wessex Waters to deliver PBT contribution of close to RM100 million a quarter when inflation continues to cool off towards 2.0% in the UK from September (2.2% in August) and interest rates are lowered by 50 bps or more by end of 2024
3) Ranhill to deliver substantially higher profits from Q2 FY2025 as synergies kick in after the take-over by YTLP, and additional water supply demand from new data centres and developments in Johor
4) YTLP to announce new clients take-off secured for its AI data centre or/and colocation data centres, as I gather they maybe in negotiations with a couple of parties more after the hyperscaler who took up 40MW+40MW in May 2024
5) UK Brabazon property project to contribute meaningful earnings to YTLP as the first batch of homes are being handed over to the buyers in 2H 2024
6) Kepong WTE project gets the go-ahead and achieves financial close by end of 2024, despite the recent petition from residents against it due to political motives
7) The MLFF project gets the go-ahead nod from the unity government, despite the protests from highway concessionaires who do not want their toll collection to be known to other parties. YTLP is already doing a Proof of Concept for MLFF and I expect a favourable outcome soon
8) Jordan Power continues to deliver steady income from shareholders' loan interest income and O&M contracts for the power plant and for the mining, as well as to report improving earnings from the project as project loan reduces over time and the inflation adjustments kick in the PPA tariffs every year.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
I would caution against any further allegation on this 1Bestarinet project, let MACC investigate. I am sure YTL Comms will be cleared of any wrongdoing eventually, just as PAC found nothing wrong with the project in its reports a couple of times.
But the damage on the share price has been done as YTLP share price has dropped 20% from the RM4.10 level early last week. I think short sellers have won handsomely this round, so no need to push it too far.
Whatever naysayers have to say, that is enough coz they have achieved their purpose.
I am not asking anyone to buy in YTLP now as I fear the negative sentiments from the MACC case may drag on for weeks or even months. It is a stock only for long term investors.
YTL Power remains the cheapest utility stock in Bursa, trading at just 8x PER on its traditional utility businesses' earnings, not yet including any future earnings of AI data centre. So those sell-side analysts who downgraded YTLP last month on potential delays in Nvidia Blackwell GPUs were talking nonsense.
I see no delay in the roll out of the first phase AI data centre in Q1 CY2025, based on information that I gather so far. AI data centre will start contributing meaningful earnings to YTLP from Q4 FY2025 onwards once completed in Q3 FY2025. That will propel YTLP net profit towards the RM4.0 billion mark in FY2026, causing YTLP stock PER to drop to 6.6x in 2026.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
I see earnings of YTL Power to rise by 10% or so in FY2025 to above RM3.5 billion, despite the efforts of sell-side analysts to downplay the earnings of PowerSeraya and AI data centres (eg. CGS), Maybank even worse to completely ignore the earnings from Jordan Power.
Apart from YTL Power, YTL's 73%-owned subsidiary MCement will see its earnings another jump in quarters ahead as several mega infrastructure projects are taking off in soon - MRT3, Penang LRT, KL-Singapore HSR, Singapore Changi Terminal 5, Tuas Mega Port etc.
YTL hotels and shopping mall division will see continued strength as visa free travels from China and India will continue well into 2025.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
YTL share price drop by over 20% in past 1 week is unjustified. It was obviously affected by the MACC investigation on the 1Bestarinet project which was used by business rivals and short sellers to press down the share price.
It is just a political maneuver which will not cause any harm to YTL's future prospects. The fundamentals remain intact with improving earnings outlook in next few years. For instance, CGS upgraded YTL to a Buy with target price of RM3.55 after the Q4 FY24 result update. CGS lowering of YTL target price was due to a cut in FY2025 earnings of YTL Power by 14%, which itself will prove to be a mistake.
Despite the cut in earnings in FY2025, YTL is trading at CY2025 PER of just 12x which makes it the cheapest construction cum conglomerate stocks in Bursa. Other big cap construction stocks are trading at PER of well over 20x.
Why I said the earnings cut of 14% for YTLP FY25 earnings by CGS is a mistake is because CGS pushed forward the AI data centre earnings contribution to YTLP to FY2026, i.e. it did not include any earnings contribution of AI data centre in FY2025 altogether. I think this will prove to be a mistake.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
or the Marina View Residences project receives better than expected responses after launch in September
2 months ago | Report Abuse
- any land sale in Johor
- a sooner turnaround in its hotel business
- potential setting up of a commercial REIT to house its shopping malls and office towers in Malaysia
2 months ago | Report Abuse
- US Fed lowers fund rates by over 25 bps in its September meeting, or cut by 100 bps before end of 2024
2 months ago | Report Abuse
- IOICB secures more tenants beyond the current 50%
2 months ago | Report Abuse
However, I do not discount the possibility of IOIPG share price rebounding earlier if we can see some good news coming up in coming weeks:
2 months ago | Report Abuse
We may need to wait for 1 or 2 more quarters before we can see meaningful rebounds in the share price of IOIPG, as the company needs to ride through Q1 and Q2 FY2025 when IOICB is expected to incur some losses due to interest expenses kicking in and tenancy remains at 50%.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Now high gearing is no longer an issue with analysts, who now spell fears on high interest expenses at IOICB that will start to kick in from Q1 FY2025. I think there sell-side analysts have overblown the issue on high interest expense, just like they overblew the issue of high gearing before.
Nonetheless, the overall market sentiment is weak with US stock markets dropping big last week. Yet foreign funds still net bought hundreds of million ringgit worth of equities in Bursa last week. The average cost of entry into IOIPG by foreign funds is slightly above RM2.00, so at current prices below RM2.00 I do not think many foreign funds will sell.
Some local funds are not yet buying in IOIPG as its net gearing is higher than 50% hence is classified as non syariah compliant, but at least we see EPF still accumulating IOIPG in past few weeks.
When foreign funds and local funds are not buying, local retailers tend to sell to cut loss as their holding power is weak.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
This MACC case is just a campaign by certain fractions to tarnish the reputation of YTL group, it will be over soon and will not cause any impact on YTL/YTLP earnings going forward. I believe the share price of both will rebound to previous highs again in next few months as fundamentals remain intact.
Short sellers may be winning this round, but as a long term investor, as long as I do not sell at current low prices, I DO NOT LOSE.
FYI, foreign funds net bought RM47 million worth of YTL shares last Friday and RM23 million worth of YTL Power shares last Friday alone. Some smart local retailers also bought a total of RM14m of YTL shares and RM12m of YTLP shares last Friday.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
@cwc1981, I don't think the 1Bestarinet project was a total failure. YTL completed the project according to the specifications spelled out by the ministry, i.e. install wifi infrastructure at 10,000 schools nationwide and provide chromebooks to students for VLE.
YTL Comms completed the project ahead of schedule within 7 years instead of the planned 15 years. The project had been certified by the Ministry of Education as being successfully completed when the project was not extended for the last phase. The last phase was where YTL Comms would fulfill the final objective of maximising the engagement level of students with the digital learning platform. When the contract was ended in June 2019, 1 million of the total 5 million students were actively logging in and engaged in the virtual learning.
So there was nothing wrong on YTL's part, as YTL Comms was just a contractor who completed the project according to specs.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
YTL Comms has not made any money from the 1Bestarinet Project despite having spent RM4.0 billion in completing the project ahead of schedule. The last phase of the project, if the contract was not terminated half way, would have just involved the government paying YTL Comms for opex, i.e. broadband data usage and licensing of the learning software for the students, a relatively small amount of some RM10m for 5 years of usage after 2019.
Now the MACC is saying that the investigation so far found that the government has to bear claims worth RM176 million from YTL Comms but the claim information has yet to be confirmed by the government, other than telecommunication substation rental losses for a period of 5 years from 2019 that is estimated at RM10.8m.
This RM176m in claims has nothing to do with the RM2.7 billion in false claims which the FMT first highlighted which accused YTL Comms of receiving the RM2.7b for 1Bestarinet for doing nothing. There is no mention of this now by the MACC.
2 months ago | Report Abuse
Maybank being the most conservative on YTL Power earnings projection has included YTL Power as one of its top picks for large cap buys in a report yesterday. It has a target price of RM4.70 for YTLP, at a prospective PER of 13x FY2025 EPS of 36.8 sen (the most conservative among analysts).
I am projecting EPS of 46 sen for FY2025, not far from HLIB's projection of 42 sen. HLIB has a target price of RM7.45 for YTLP, at prospective PER of 17.7x on its projected FY2025 earnings and at prospective PER of 16x on my projected FY2025 earnings. This is entirely reasonable valuation, compared to PER of over 20x for Tenaga and PetGas.
Stock: [YTLPOWR]: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
1 month ago | Report Abuse
Anything that can be quantified is not a big risk to me, for instance FX movements.
It will be more risky if FX movements or any commodity price movements will cause a big dent to the underlying business profitability, i.e. aluminium price movements to Press Metal, or crude palm oil price movements to plantation companies. These are the companies that I will not invest in, taking heeds from Buffetology.