if eps for the next 4qtr is 2.01 -0.86 = 1.16 .

eps rm1.16 now how we gonna price supermax.

pe 10 = 11.16

pe 20 = 20.32
supermax cap will be 26 billion ...malaysia got so much fund me?

why supermax sbb at 1.76 - 2.48?
the average price is RM 2.01

I assume they bought at company projected NTA price.

still taking last yr qtr 3
2.64 eps
361,199k sales
34,617k profit
2019-03-31

361,199k sales x 30% more sale due to max production = 469558 x50% price increase(OBM price 100% x 50%market share) = 704338k

new Cost = 361199 - 34617= 326582 x1.20 (30% increase production - 10% cost saving ) =391898 -10% (exchangerate+ material cost n utitlity saving) = 352708k
estimate profit at 704338k - 352708k= 351629k

eps = 351 629k x 4qtr = 1406519 /1.36 b=rm1.034

New NTA for the next 4qtr = 1.034 +0.86 = rm1.89

rm1.89 vs rm2.01

that means profit is even higher than i think.

yes,

the 30% increase in production/sales i assume:-
1) 75% increase to 95% =20%
2) Increase of 10% extra capacity?


Posted by freetospeak > May 14, 2020 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

my calculation does not factor in other cost saving like low oil price, low natural gas, strong usd , OBM advantage (top glove had a 100% ASP increase on own brand)etc.

my calculation does not factor in other cost saving like low oil price, low natural gas, strong usd , OBM advantage (top glove had a 100% ASP increase on own brand)etc.

very glad someone question my calculation so that i can improve on it. thank u.

i already mention supermax profit will be minimum 100 million nabove .
5% increase price is 100 million, 10% increase is 120 millioin, 15% increase is 140 million, 20 % is 160 million.

my calculation pe 20 is rm6,pe 30 is rm9.00
every 5% increase in sales price will increase 20% profit n tp.
eg. 10% increase price = 37 sen eps pe 30= rm 11.1
20% increase price = 55.53 pe 30 =RM16.66
based on last yr qtr 3

2.64 eps
361,199k sales
34,617k profit
2019-03-31

361,199k sales x 30% more sale due to max production = 469558 x5% price increase(be conservative) = 493, 036k

new Cost = 361199 - 34617= 326582 x1.20 (30% increase production - 10% cost saving ) =391898
estimate profit at 493036 - 391898 = 101137k

Profit increase factor = 101137/34617 = 2.92x

2.92 x 2.64 = 7.71 per qtr
7.71 x 4 qtr = 30.85
pe30 =rm 9.25

my calculation does not factor in other cost saving like low oil price, low natural gas, strong usd etc.

i use a more prudent calculation to arrive at 100 mil if u look bak my post.

i used 330 x 1.2 (30% due to increase production - 10% cost saving very prudent) = 396 m
525.53 -396 = 129 mil

capacity is increase by about 25-30% becoz the revenue reflect a 75% usuage only.
Adding another 10% this year will be 35-40% so i take a lower 30%.

so RM385mil * 1.30 x1.05 = 525.53 - (RM330 * 1.1 )= RM162.53 mil.

next wk report out..wanna get rm4 below impossible liao...want to buy buynow...

get letter of credit liao must be...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/virus-may-never-go-away-who-says

Mtag distrbute ppe only already huat...

really dunno how to calculate.

jus need few billion usd u can own many glove counter. y spend billions buying gloves?...lol

trump pls come invest in our glove stock...then u can get all the glove u want...lol

break 4 today...

3x is for this qtr...next qtr..they will say is 5x due to increase asp..so on...last month they never mention about 3x profit..but i oledi calculated can 3x based on public info of 5 % asp increase. they oledi knew long b4 us..but they silently accumula dun wan to say.

all the fake q to sell

nex wk gloves party ...hold on ...

fund are blocking to let ppl sell...they r collecting dun sell your shares.

prepare for party nex wk !!!!!

i already mention supermax profit will be minimum 100 million nabove .
5% increase price is 100 million, 10% increase is 120 millioin, 15% increase is 140 million, 20 % is 160 million.

my calculation pe 20 is rm6,pe 30 is rm9.00
every 5% increase in sales price will increase 20% profit n tp.
eg. 10% increase price = 37 sen eps pe 30= rm 11.1
20% increase price = 55.53 pe 30 =RM16.66
based on last yr qtr 3

2.64 eps
361,199k sales
34,617k profit
2019-03-31

361,199k sales x 30% more sale due to max production = 469558 x5% price increase(be conservative) = 493, 036k

new Cost = 361199 - 34617= 326582 x1.20 (30% increase production - 10% cost saving ) =391898
estimate profit at 493036 - 391898 = 101137k

Profit increase factor = 101137/34617 = 2.92x

2.92 x 2.64 = 7.71 per qtr
7.71 x 4 qtr = 30.85
pe30 =rm 9.25

then my calculation is correct..100 million profit for current qtr.

We like Supermax because the stock is trading at an unjustified 40% discount to bigger peers’ average valuation compared to a historical discount of 30%. We highlight again that the 40% valuation discount to bigger cap peers appears conservative.

TP is raised from RM2.50 to RM4.50 based on 26x CY21E EPS (at +2.0SD above 5-year historical forward mean). Reiterate OP. KENANGA, Price Call : BUY, Price Target : 4.50.

PE 26x @4.50. Still undervalue..lol

MoneyHeist...if i got money i will buy. But i got no money now...sob...collect in stages is best. who knows the big fund wanna dump to u n hit limit down today.

that is assuming 100% increase in obm price like topglvoe.

simple calculation,
If my glove is rm1, cost is 90sen...now i can sell at 1.50 profit = 60sen...profit from 10 sen to 60 sen is quals to 600%= normal profit for supermax is about 35million per qtr = now is 210 million per qtr. x1.30 for additional volume = 270 million per qtr. x4 = 1.08 billion profit per yr

rm3.90 is really undervalued supermax...lol

thats why it is unbelievable...until the report out. i still dun beleive topglvoe can increase 100% in own brand price.

thats 250million per qtr profit...thats crazy.

if really increase 50% in ASP is equal to eps rm1.00!!!

if based on topglove 100% increase inown brand price..supermax with 50% obm sales ..is equal to 50% increase in asp. 50% increase is a lot!!!

it is possible...a 1997 like bull run for klse will make that happen.

with 500 -600 million profit per year a tp 4 is unreasonable.

with 500 -600 million profit per year a tp12 is reasonable.

tp 12 by year end. stock split @7 into 3.50 then rise to 5-6 inanticipating another bumper qtr 4. by then rm5-6 is actually equals to tp12 from now.

with the current rm500-600 million record profit for this yr ...normalised price is rm3.50 for next 5 yrs.

that is calculation based on rm500 million profit per yr @ 125 million per qtr..if profit is more than rm500 million different story.

my calculation is spilt stock at rm7 into rm3.50 at qtr 3 ..rise up to rm5-6 at qtr4 to reflect my tp12.00.when covid dies down drop to rm3.50 n stable.

top glove dare dare to increase 100% price for own inhouse brand...if supermax also increase 100% price for own obm product which accounts for 50% sales...cannot imagine wat is the profit like.

There is little covid related stock at such low pe already.

When all glove related stock rally next wk ...then panic buy again. Want to buy ,better buy now.yesterday is a acid test b4 huge surge.

OTB sifu...pls take care..too much scolding no good for health. safety first.

meaning more profits?

bonus issue n dividend share also not declare n given ...dunno so hurry sell for wat.

n dun forget supermax got a 190 million inventories in stock for this qtr to sell.

of course i dun expect to happen in this qtr , may b next qtr full effect shows. but this qtr a 5-10% is very posible n a 100 million proit shld b reasonsable.

if they really increase asp by 30% then 600 million per year is very possible according to my calculation. 1 yr equals 5 yr earning....never happen b4 in bursa glove history...ppl need to adapt to new norm...lol