aii i thought someone previously predict after GE announced the stock will straight fall to RM 1.20 one?.......

What happen to the prediction? :P

Another generalization.. people just don't read.

200-300k ha of palm oil planted per year in 2009 till now when the price is good will start to fruit after 3 years. So with all these newly maturing crop, what to do with it? Throw away or buy machine to process them? Your guess....:P

why do yo doubt questionable? TDM have dividend policy minimum 30% of profits. In the past 5 years they have paid around 35% to 45% of total year EPS.

Q1 = 7.47
Q2 = 3.88
Q3 = 16.22
Q4 = 14.03
Total = 41.6 x 30% = 12.48 cents

I hope that you understand the word 'minimum' right. :P

Kc,

My pe is more flexible basically less than long term growth and dy.

Example, a stock growing at 8% cagr with 3% dy, max pe = 8+3=11

Joshua, how about the 200 to 300 k ha planted since 2009 when the price is good and will be maturing gradually now? Leave them to rot or buy machine to process them? What do you think? A lot of people does not know palm oil plantation have a 3 year lag time.

My view more of a mix of all styles, must have deep intrinsic value margin of safety with reasonable growth attached. I would term reasonable growth is at least 8% CAGR which is not too difficult to achieve.

kcchongnz,

3 cent dividend for MBL is still pending AGM, will announce within a month or so.

Also dividend payment has been increasing for 3 years in a row.

will not go far... very slow stock. :P

Anbz, to get full info you need to do proper research. I am sure all the guys here is doing their homework and not pluck info out of thin air. Each of them spend some time to read, gather anssummarise the info.

Read their quarterly repot, annual report and announcement on bursa. You can do it too,all info is public knowledge.

House, great info, wonder why they bury under an old annual report. Means mbl have longer pioneer status than cbip.

Looks like excellent margin of safety from mbl. Just too see if the profit is sustainable. Just noticed that they are not 100% reliant on palm oil. They do sell a small but increasing percentage of thier equipment to copra and jathropa. Bad thing is if they lose thier pioneer status,thier earnings will fall as they get taxed.

Kcchongnz, what i mean to saythier bussiness looks good at rm 4, so the script divvy ia bonus. Currently selling at high pe but have very good growth rate. Virtual monopoly in the country internet backbone. Big big moat there....

I am checking on this. They have pioneer status, usually tax free for 5 to 10 years.

What do you think?

Kcchong got an interesting arbitage play for you. Time com is going to distribute 0.24 shares of digi for every 1 share held. The stock now is worth RM4/share and will distribute RM1/share worth of digi stock as script dividend. The business is recently doing great and has turn around after may years of losses. However there is no guarantee the stock will not fall significantly after the digi shares distribution.

MBL.. here goes overall view.

1. Good margins on products (kernel equipment) gross margin nearly 50%, net margin about 20%. This shows they have little competitors. Sales size remain a fraction of CBIP, due to less kernel plant than palm oil mill.
2. Net cash of 37 million, zero debt.Very little capex, very little depreciation, so everything is pure cashflow. pay 50% of earning as dividend, current rate about 7-8% yield. Pay VERY low tax due to pioneer status (for kernel crushing technology) similar to CBIP.
3. Selling at PE 5.5x, Reasonable profit growth > 10% cagr.The owners are buying a whole load of shares. Market is illiquid, micro cap, so will not attract institutional players.
4. Recently proposed to acquire 1,500 acres of plantation land in Sokor, Kelantan for 24 million. Price 16k/acre is of fair value as the oil palm are fully planted and newly matured. The plantation is profitable and is expected to contribute about 100-200k p.a. to MBL profit.
5. Interestingly 80% of sales is to outside of malaysia. Means he brand has captured international market. Biggest customer out of Malaysia is in Indonesia, Papua and Columbia.

anzb.. it is not the numbers that is important in investing, it is the meaning of the numbers which determines it all.

If you can understand the meaning of the various numbers, you can minimise your risk while maximise your potential gain.

Think risk first, then profit.

Kcchongnz comparing cbip vs mbl, i prefer cbip because of patent and tax free status. Kernal crushing plant is relatively smaller than palm oil mill and also less in number. Most plantation will have 2 to 3 palm oil mill for every kernal plant. However competition in the kernal plant is considerably less.

Degree in mathematics? Lmao... you should be able to count everything right?

MBL does not do the same product as CBIP, although both is in the palm oil market.

CBIP specialize in Palm oil mill (processing of palm fruit) thus producing CPO
MBL specialize in Palm Kernel Mill (processing of palm nut) thus producing CPKO

Yield can be found by dividing total FFB produced with the total planted land. All plantation company must report this statistic (total ffb & cpo produced)but not necessary the yield/ha.

They only sold Empressa or both?, yield is about 19 tpha dropping to 14 tpha. If a plantation yield can drop like that, means not good plantation management. Anyway sarawak yield is not too good, as SOP only manage about 17-18 tpha.

Kalimnatan can consistently give 23-25 tpha yield due to good volcanic soil.

They still have the JV and associates.

They have experience.. they currently have plantation in Sarawak.

Sachiew Plantation - 3720 ha
Empressa Plantation (sold) - 5936 ha
SGSB Plantation (50% JV) - 5567 ha (effective 2783 ha)
KKJ & BBSB Plantation (30% Associate) - 20836 ha (effective 6250 ha)

They are planning to plant 5k ha per year...at RM 16k/ha.

Update.. on CBIP.

1. CBIP hold a patent for CSS system until 2019, and have tax free status (pioneer) until 2015. This is a good moat. This explain why CBIP can get great margin for it's palm oil mill, but until 2015 only.
2. Advantage of CSS vs conventional is lower cost/automated system. But disadvantage is higher FFA (thus lower CPO price)
3. CBIP expect to consume 80 mil per year for the next 6 years to develop the 37k of plantation at Kalimantan. Returns from the plantation will not be seen until 4 years later. Due to this we expect for the next 5 years the FCF will be negative or very low.

Yeah I like CBIP, because I am bullish on palm oil. With the huge plantings in Kalimantan for the past 2-3 years, they will need lots and lots of palm oil mill approx 20-30 new ones per year for the next few years. Also CBIP have very good fundamentals and safety margin, ie net cash, low PE, good DY.

The best thing about palm oil mill contracting is that as long as there are plantings there will be mill even if the palm oil price soften. There is a lag time of 3-4 years between planting and milling.

Even though the price of palm oil is down, planters will still want to mill the fruit otherwise they lose it all (rotten fruit).

You require 1 palm oil mill for every 7k-8k ha of matured plantation (age 8-20). Usually they will start building the palm oil mill, when the planting reach age 4-5.

I need to do more research on CBIP's competitors...

kcchongnz, i am not faulting your analysis, in fact i think it is very good. I am invested in CBIP for a few years already and i think it is a great business & i am bullish on the palm oil industry.

However my argument is purely academic, as how do we predict the future cashflow if the current cashflow is not consistent? If you look at the list they suffer big drop in FCF in 2008 and 2011. So how can we tell that the future the revenue can only be up without taking account impact such as 2008 and 2011 might happen again.

The business of palm oil mill, is not exactly a moat i am looking for which has always troubled me. There are many players out there and margins can be squeezed if there is a price war. Similar to refinery contracting business, ie. Lipico, Desmet, oiltek and others now going into price wars with razor thin margins. They used to be very high margin and Lipico was once a high flying earner.

Earnings are not guaranteed to go up forever. That is biggest trap of valuation.

Darling companies like transmile, rise earnings every year until one year in financial trouble, straight away collapse.

There are a lot of good companies which become train wrecks overnight due to poor management. It is very important to invest in companies which produce steady & predictable cash flow like what WB favors. If the business is too complicated, WB usually gives it a miss...

CPIB is mostly a contracting service, an industry i don't really like as it is very cyclic. However what interest me is the 37k of plantation, which should bring steady revenue.

But this stock not for quick gain, poor liquidity means it can stay undervalue for a long long time.

But it does not hurt divident will be announced next month between 13 to 15 sen.

The problem is epv does not take into account of future earning increase or decrease.. if increase then ok, if decrease, the epv calc will be out of whack. So you see lumpy earning is hard to estimate.

I do basic dcf and then look for stocks with strong earning increase but sustainable, hopefully with some kind of moat.

Conservatively about rm 4.5 to 5 currently with good safety factor. But this not a tp, as the stock grows the value will go up.

Either one, dcf or owners earning is difficult for inconsistent earning... so just wanna know how you all assume future returns. Got a method or pluck from the sky?

Berdebat lah selalu supaya minda sehat....:-P

Why on earth you promoting liposuction? Hahaha. You done before?

On your cbip projections, i am looking at the yearly cagr, seems to be bit inconsistent and lumpy. 2008 is great year, but then next two years the earnings is not so good, then jumped in 2012, probally due to ssles of asset.

Why do you use 5% growth rate as the earnungs are up and down?

Even without bi, if earning goes up the share will do so as well. Bi have no effect.

Back to tdm, i believe they will post moderate growth in 2013, but will jump from 2014 onwards as the new hospital and palm oil mill and plantation starts to contribute.

Sorry typo for above eps is 10/100=0.1 and 10/200=0.05 after bi.

Doesnt matter, bonus issue will not bring more value to the company or share. However most of bursa speculator like bonus issue.....maybe they do not understand the reason.

Lets say a company with 100 mil shares do a 1 to 1 bonus. The company also earn 10 mil per year. So eps will be 100/10 = 0.1. After bonus issue the outstanding share will be double but the eps will be halved, 200/10=0.05

Lets say investor a have 1000 shares, his total eps before bi is 1000 x 0.1 =100

After bonus issue, he now have 2000 shares, his total eps is 2000x0.05 = 100

So based on this simple calculation, where does the shareholder benefit from bonus issue?

Bonus issue will not bring more value to the share.....

Dont have.....

Low pe, good dy, high roe. Net cash holding, good bussness margin and 37k ha of empty land in kalimantan wait to be planted.

Probably will on monday. Never rush investment.

I queue at 2.50 this morning, then never see until closing...

Cypark reported increaded eps of 4.13 sen increased compared to last quarter.

You too free ah. Having fun with trolls..

Well go on then...:-P

Queue buy to increade holdings but didnt get. Next time....

Kchongnz why you want to waste time replying. Obiously he is having fun trolling.

Dont feed the trolls...

Aiyah queue not match. Run away already....

Bonus issue and share split is waste of time and money. Other than more shsre outstanding and lower price it give absolutely zero value except for ib fees.

The plantation owned by tdm has completed thier biological resting period last year that is why the yields are terrible in 2012. This year the plantation yiields should hopefully be good. Target min 19 ton per ha.

Palm tree have to rest every 1 to 2 years, before they can be productive.

Tdm is not the most efficient planter as thier old plantation is badly managed with poor yield and oer. However they are doing rehab since 2006 and hopefully will bear fruit.

13 cent divvy coming after agm. Plantation should see extra contribution in fy13 as kalimantan plantation bears fruit, planted in 2008. The healthcare div will start to contribute more earnings in 2014 as the two new hospital completed .