Told you all it's 1.85... the adjustment to warrant price is not based on 5 day VWAP.. but on the exercise price. Now will rise to 0.50 easily...

What lar you all.. the calculation for WCT-WB is already given a month ago in the prospectus for BI and free warrant D, page 20 to be exact.

The calculation is very clear that the new exercise price will be 1.85...

Now mother is 2.41 - 1.85 (ex price) = 0.56... still got lots of upside to go...

In the flour business I would rather go with FFM Berhad... their new bread Massimo has largely robust sales from the demise of Silver Bird's High 5, and have enjoyed massive market share. Also their Indonesian unit and Vietnam unit is doubling soon and tripling in 2014. They are also gaining a foothold on Australia by setting up a new flour mill there.

You need to excercise only after the price revision date which is 11/12 to get 1.85. Excersice now and you will pay 2.50.

Better don't touch warrants if you don't understand the details...

kcchong, derivatives can be investment as well, but you need to have capital to convert. :)

ironad.. will not reach 0.50.. still need some 'meat' for the WB holders to convert. My TP 0.40-0.45, so those who convert have some meat to eat not bones only...

kcchong,

I have been buying since 23 and average up. But since i am still buying.. keeping it under wraps. Today all hell break lose already so no more buying opportunity. :(

Rats.. already zoom past my target buying price...:(

kcchong,

shhh.. not so loud yet.. I am still not done buying.. this info is already publicly available since 1 month ago, when the WB is 23 cents...:)

Kcchong,

The WB is already near expiry (4 months), although it is theoretically worth >40 sens, there are still two risk factors. One would be the selldown of WCT and WCT-WD shares once they are listed on 10/12. Although this is unlikely, WCT mother share might take a small dent.

Another one is the amount of cash for the WCT-WB holders might require if they are to exercise the warrants to gain the arbitrage differences. WB owners hope someone will come up with the money to buy their WB shares to convert, but the buyers will also think twice since the conversion rate is high compared to WB cost. So in the end someone have to to pay 6x capital to exercise. Will you be the one?

If you have enough cash to exercise you can stop worrying about the price differences. Buy, exercise and then sell mother share and rinse to repeat. There is no trap, just lack of capital from punters. This is how the big money trumps all those small players, by leveraging and reap the 15 cent per share difference.

Here is an interesting article done by vanguard research company.. they have a chart of the accuracy of many stock earnings forecasting methods and the highest achievement (0.43 correlation) is using the Schiller PE10 CAPE method which is originally concerted by Graham. other popular methods such as earnigns growth fails at 0.01 correlation.

Interesting article for those value investors.

http://www.investmentmoats.com/stock-market-commentary/technical-analysis/the-folly-of-forecasting-modelsjust-how-accurate-are-they/

Even Graham & Buffett admits that estimating the future earnings is the greatest and most difficult part of a company valuation. So instead of trying to guess the right number, they try to increase their odds by having a safety margin and also looking at moats, cash, net asset, average 10 years EPS and other clues that put a floor on the stock price. They also prefer easy to understand business with stable earnings & dividend paying. Basically there is no sure way of calculating the intrinsic value but merely to guess it.

For me Kfima meets several criteria such as moat (security printer & bulking)and net cash of RM 1/share. Cash flow has been spotty but is generally positive yoy. Also Kfima has consistently increased dividend payout for the last 7 years.

The main thing that everyone forgets or based too much on calculation is that earnings and profits are not static and have great change. A company ca do well for the past 20-30 years, but one misstep can bring it down. I would rather think investment is an art of guessing the future. :)

Hustle, Perkasa say cannot.....

Mas sell alcohol = ok
FGV make fatty alcohol = ok
IHH inject you with alcohol = ok

Hmm......

Nah.. just sharing info. No need to step on anyone. I value KC's views as well..

Greenpeace is also in the action for tuna protest.. looks like most retailers is committed (say only) to shift thier puna purchasing.. due to protest.

More info at http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/tunaleaguetable

Europe is sourcing tuna elsewhere other than Africa & Mediterranean due to protest by fishfight.net. Especially Tesco which is indicated as purchasing from non-sustainable tuna fishing & fake dolphin safe logo.

I think PGN got no dolphins right? :)

KC, Kfima already have a small tuna canning division in PNG.. under Besta brand. They only started to market it this year and expect to expand.

Besta & Supreme - Sardines, Tuna
King Cup (20% own) - Sardines, Mackerel, Tuna

TNMSingh, I would prefer Kfima to be low key. Anyway i do not like companies which is too proactive in capital proposals, share split, BI etc, which does not bring real value to shareholders.

Let it remain low key, and as long as the management is concentrating more on building up the business rather than trying to jack up stock price to exercise options I am good.

The bulking division seems to be the growth gem.. profit increase 23% yoy. This more or less offset the lower profit from the plantation division. Kfima bulking handles both CPO, fuel oil and latex. The bulking division is the 'toll' for liquid export/imports of these materials.

Food and manufacturing there is only small changes yoy. Plantation profits fell 50% yoy due to lower selling price.

Agree that Kfima is a 'slow' counter... but you need some of these stalwart counters in your portfolio. Stalwart is moderate growth, good moat, high cash, increasing dividend ... which Kfima fits the bill and i am expecting only earnings about 8-10% p.a. Kfima hasso far return to me on average 14.5% p.a. since i bought it in 2010 even after the recent selldown. Keeping it under my stalwart portfolio...:)

Fimacor has ok results.. seems like not much affected by CPO price probably due to better harvest as the trees mature to offset the declining CPO price. Currency translation does not really matter as it swings up and down and it is not an actual cost.

Fimacor usually contribute up to 40%-50% of Kfima's earnings, so the results will be quite satisfactory. The only thing is that receivables jumps from 44 to 76 mil which is worrying.

looking forward to Kfima's earnings.. and hope for pleasant surprise.

I am neutral.. i like some of your comments too davesingh.. except when you scream SELLLL or BUYYYY.. :P

Davidraja,

Not quite true, if KC is not arguing and resort to plain name calling. I find his comments to be quite refreshing.. i would rate him to be an experienced investor. Some of his comments allows us to take off our rose tinted glasses.

Anyway why worry on other's picks? You need to have conviction on your own buy, or not why bother to buy?

The same comment goes to you davesingh, you also goes offtopic at this forum :P

Also on your comment that if Kfima goes to 1.20, i would dump 6 figures on it. Why the conviction? The net cash for Kfima itself is already nearly RM1/share.. buying the entire business for 20 cent/share is a no brainer? :) That is just me looking at value... you need to be patient and wait for quite some time so it is not suitable for traders :)

I mean no disrecpect KC.. but your comments has totally gone offtopic at Kfima thread, so it no longer has good information to share. I thought the main purpose at i3investor is for discussion and fact sharing and not name calling and public fighting?

Anyway back to topic, the share price of the stock is of no concern to me, as i am loooking at the bussiness and not the price. The price is mere an indication of value... if it is over value.. i sell and undervalue i buy. BTW i bought 1 batch at 1.80. :)

KR1M = the more you eat the more you die... :P

KR1M = reject sardines... just like condensed milk with no milk and oyster sauce with no oysters in it. This one sardines with faux meat? :)

The free warrant as usual will be listed at 0.05 with limit up of 0.31 on the first day. Being negative premium, can easily fetch 40 sen or more.

Warrant-D exercise price is 2.25 which is 3.5% discount to ex-all price.

No worries, tonight will have announcement on Bonus issue & Free warrant ex-date. Expected ex date mid Dec and payment date end Dec.

Ha KC always enjoy your counter views.. this way we can learn rather than having a 1 sided view.

1. Most counter with reasonable business (not losing money etc) and is selling below cash value will tend to go back up quickly. Otherwise raiders like Laxey will come and buy up your company for free if below net cash. :)
2. N/C
3. Yes this is very management specific. I would rate Kfima's management as semi-conservative. They showed they are willing to take some risk on plantation overseas. The cash buffer will likely stay there or paid out as dividend. However refusing to take over Fimacor is a tad bit too conservative. This is what you call a cash cow and not a growth business. Each have it's own merits.
4. With the cash buffer, they can continue to pay good dividend, not only yield matters but even if you are stuck with low share price, the dividend will tide you through the rough times, so your holding is not so painful. :)

Oh forgot one, they can continue to pay dividends during crisis, or low profit hence the stock price stays firm due to high yield. :)

Cash rich companies is much safer during this turbulent time.

1. Price of stock will not go below net cash holding (otherwise company is free, better buy a truckload!)

2. Cash rich companies will not subject to pressure from bank to repay loan if there is a financial crisis and if interest rate goes up also no problem.

3. They can have good opportunity to acquire good companies with weak financials during a crisis.

Basically in a crisis they will shine. :)

3.

Davidraja, I have both Faber and Kfima.. just love those cash rich companies eh?

KC Loh,

Digi is selling at PE 30X, DY 4.5%, Expected growth FY13 3-4%
Kfima selling at PE 6X, DY 6%, EXpected growth FY13 12-15%

Now rationally, which one you will choose?

Kfima is holding net cash of RM 0.75/share and it NAV is currently 2.14. Well even if Digi falls to RM 3 (NAV 30 sen only), how low do you think Kfima can go?

Currently fair price to buy is 1.85, the lowest probably 1.55 but it might not get there. At this rate by end of FY their cash in hand will be easily RM 1 /share.

The olf Fimacor is badly run GLC company... now the company is controlled by the Bashir family, which is well connected. Also the Bashir family only holds non-executive director positions only. The CEO is not family/politically connected and is chosen by the Bashir family due to his management strength.

The majority shareholder trust this CEO to make money for them, why not us? So far his performance for the past 8 years is excellent. :P

1.85 is my next buying target... :)

You all focus on the dividend and PAT, although is very nice. Yet you all don't see magic behind.

YTD PAT 54 mil... YTD Free cash flow 199 million. Faber can afford to pay up to 70 cents (based on 50% free cash flow)if it choose too.

Cash on hand is not too shaby either, nearly 300 million with almost no debts.

Hallo, EPF did not invest in Astro lar.. get your facts right.

Well if current buyers are stupid.. those holding almost 2 billion IPO shares call what ah?

"Value stocks are about as exciting as watching grass grow. But have you ever noticed just how much your grass grows in a week?"
- Christopher Browne

I research each stock thoroughly and it's business before I buy, so I tend to know all the in's and out of each stock in detail.

What to buy depends on whats price is the share.... at the time.

Not to mention Kfima holds 20% of G&D which is printing Malaysia's new notes....

Palm oil only contribute 20-30% of it's earnings. The biggest is the bulking installation, like toll collector for any shipping of liquid oil & chemicals in Port Klang & Penang. Another one is the security printers who is printing all your IC/Passport/checks. All these are recession proof business...

Break 2.60 and all the Astro employee shares will face Margin call.....

Kfima only owns 20% of Marushin Cannery which owns King Cup Sardin... it is only associate company so the revenue not included in P/L.

IFC on the other hand is 100% own by Kfima. Besta Sardines anyone? :P