Since it's too good... sometimes i wonder if there is any 'kap nga' jumping around. LOL...

Lets say for instance Kfima.. it's net cash value is about RM 1/share. Share price 1.85. If we take out the RM 1 of net cash and evaluate based on RM 0.85 (bushiness value), the results are too good no matter how we tweak the numbers.

ets say you have 100 mil shares outstanding. Your earning is 10 mil.

EPS = 10/100 = 0.1

Company buys back 10 mil of their shares and cancel it. Outstanding shares now 90 mil. And lets say earnings stays the same at 10 mil (no growth).

EPS = 10/90 = 0.111

So by purchasing 10% of their own shares & cancel, it will increase EPS by 11.1%...

All these is done tax free, as there is no tax like dividend (company side & investor side)

Sharebuy back over long term is equivalent of slowly raising the EPS and can be considered a form of dividend, provided they cancel thier Treasury shares. Hap seng from last year until now has bought 3.47% of their stock.

Do you all subtract out the cash portion for intrinsic valuation and only evaluate the ongoing business?

The reasoning is that the cash is static and should not be a part of the evaluation. After removing the cash portion, you find that a lot of cash rich company have very high margin of safety.

Intrinsic valuation is all dandy when evaluating companies that perpetually increase earnings, but there are some situation when the companies' wrong move will bring drastic changes and could result in loss position. Once a company enters a loss position, all valuation metrics are out of the window.

I use a reasonable risk free rate, which is currently low due to low interest. However i also heavily discount the cagr. Kfima long term cagr i assume to be only 5%. Also i require a wide margin of safety like around half the intrinsic value .

I calculate intrinsic value from FCF using risk free return, then only add safety margin. Risk free return for me is 1 year govt bond, in this case MGS with about 3%.

The trickiest part is always to assume the future growth.. if in doubt i use inflation growth.

Different people different tactic, not all is suitable, Some look for highest daily volume, some look for value, some treat bursa like casino, some like passive income, some just don't care ...many types of people.

Haha you know already what, I don't speculate short term. My average hold rate is >2-3 years per counter. I cannot tell you which counter will go up 10 cent in 1 day, but there are plenty which can goes up 10 cent in a year or so. Interested?

anbz, short term fluctuations does not interest me.. what is a few cents...?

Div ex 10/5

Few sen up and down also so exited meh? I am not the least bothered. Anyway if got confident buy and no confident esp you anbz, don't buy.

I am keeping mine for longer term view so i am not the least worried.

Aiyah talk all you want lar. If it goes to rm 1.20 i will definitely collect more. I have been collecting since 2010, so it doesn't worry me. If the stock market hand me a discount why not take advantage of it.

By the way kfima have net cash of rm 1.10 per share. How low do you think it will go..also ministry if finance have 1 golden share in percetakan national...

If you got no confident, don't buy let me collect more. Sell also never mind.

Your prediction is all over the place, first 8 sen then 80 sen and now 1.20? All with zero fundamental basis.

Again i advice everyone, DON'T BUY! :-)

Mmmmm these English muffins are nice... as well. Want some?

Time for tea! Anbz go and have no a cuppa to relax your frayed nerve. Otherwise too much stress is proven kill you faster.

I am having mine with scones. :-)

Hahaha anbz. Thanks for showing us again how shallow your knowledge is. You really have no idea about fundamental investing at all?

Anyway keep your raving.... i am taking longout the popcorn to enjoy your idiot statements.

More replies like that please! Humor us!

kcchongnz... relax lar. Lots of these 'kids' all lose money until 'gila' already. Ignore them lah, let them punt whatever they want, until they lose all their capital. It's hilarious looking at their reply trying very hard to pretend they have great financial knowledge.

Hahaha anbz, with your kind of thinking, you better quit punting in the stock market lest you lose all of your investment. Rather than rambling nonsense here go do something productive.

You must have lost too much in the stock market until 'sot jor'. No use talking to you anymore...waste of breath only.

Here take 10 cent go play far far away.

As minority shareholders you cannot force a company to give dividend...
Dividend is decided by the board of directors...

Want to complain a company is not giving out dividend? SC will shove you out the door.. :)

If this company intend to use it's 108 it would have done so since 2008, when the rule come out for 1 tier dividend, and not wait until last minute and going to expire...

Anyway good luck to punters and pray hard the directors feel generous..

Before CPO reach rm 3k.. all the tress ready to die liao.. hahaha.

70% already > 25 years old...

No use predict prices, the madness of crowds sometimes make the price either too high or too low. prices are merely tools to present you buying and selling opportunities.

What is important is the intrinsic value. A lot of people especially those who have less financial knowledge often confuse price with value.

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get."

P/S I think those who everyday scream TP! TP! are merely speculators not investors and that goes for most analyst as well.

That just means they did not choose to terminate the 108 balance in 2012, but there are no guarantees that they will utilize it or make it lapse. :P

Also strong shares buyback....these few days.

Hap Seng expected to earn 20 cent per share from the disposal of the auto business. Possibility could declare 20 cent special dividend.

The majority owner is definitely not lower tax bracket. So even if KS utilize the s108, they will not have benefit. Might as well burn it all rather than let the minorities earn the tax credit & have to foot out a huge dividend bill. :)

kfima is not palm oil lah, <30% of it's earnings is from palm oil.

he speculating going to explode soon, because 'someone' is throwing 1 lot 1 lot to suppress the price then put in 300 lot buy order. once clear, start throw 1 lot 1 lot and repeat with big order again.

If you look at the trading timeline for the past week or so can see the same pattern over and over again...

kcchongnz, oldman is talking about the stock going to 'explode' upwards lar... :P

Chill.. chill...:)

Aiyak.. he not MIA wor... hmmm

kcchong.. ok lar.. he mia already.

Listen you buy then will go holland.. let us 'suicidal' people buy only ok...:P

otherwise you make the price high... :(

Please don't buy.... :)

Forever won't go up. Don't buy! :P

Ok lah, kcchongnz, shall we agree to disagree? We reserve this space for FA analysis. I might contribute some later. ;)

Well it was risk free leveraged arbitage (bond gives constant interest)until Russia decided not to pay back the bonds...

Same with our company S, a couple years down the road, the nature of business may change or the management decided to do something stupid.

We cannot predict the future, so there is no actual risk free arbitrage. We can only minimize our risk. :)

Look at the great example of LTCM, which kept on buying Russian Bond because their Phd calculations shows that the bonds are severely undervalued.

Even though they are right in the end, but market forces prevailed and sold down those bonds, facing margin calls LTCM kept selling and the price went down further and then even more margin calls.

Before the bonds can realize their true value, LTCM declared bankruptcy. If LTCM can hang on for a couple more months they would have reap billions of dollars in profits. That is leverage working against you.

Moderate leverage in a company is beneficial and is required to expand the business. I would tend to ovoid over leveraged companies with extremely high debt. Little or no debt companies have very good potential as they are able to raise funds quickly if a opportunity presents itself.

The leverage I was talking about is personal leverage, especially used to buy stocks, in which the stocks will be used as collateral. If due to an unfortunate market downturn, your stocks will be facing margin calls. This is why I would avoid leveraged purchase of stocks as it does not allow you to buy and hold for long term and ride out the downs of the market.

Don't get me wrong, kcchongnz, i value your analysis, but each of our brains works differently, hence we might have different opinion. Since this is a discussion board, we will put in our views as well.

But I agree that personal attacks are not warranted.

Oh and the stocks you have listed, you do have margin of safety stocks with growth attached.. but not all of it. I won't mention those stocks since I have some of it as well.

Commenting on APM, the last 3 quarters shows declining margin and EPS. Sales have been stagnant for the past 2 years or so. Although it is compelling, i see more risk forward than reward.

For the share price appreciation the biggest growth is in year 2009-2010 where they increase the EPS (growth) at a very fast paced rate.

kcchong,

You of all people should know to avoid leverage. Leverage cuts both ways, if things is rosy of course your returns will be extraordinary. But if there is a 'black swan' event, you will lose it all. There is no 100% risk free investment, but you can only minimize the risk.

Look at this way, what if the company that we have been discussing at low PE, gives high dividend and have some reasonable growth. Won't that be a much better prospect? These stocks do exist but less recognized by the market until a catalyst comes along.

I don't advocate chasing growth stocks, but a fisher/graham method in which margin of safety + growth will produce tremendous results.

Definition of Value trap...

A stock that appears to be cheap because the stock has been trading at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for an extended time period. Stock traps attract investors who are looking for a bargain because these stocks are inexpensive. The trap springs when investors buy into the company at low prices and the stock never improves. Trading that occurs at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for long periods of time might indicate that the company or the entire sector is in trouble, and that stock prices may not move higher.

There are two types of growth...

Organic growth means growth in company either due to more people using the product or cost efficiency which creates growth. There is growth, but at a slow and steady rate as consumption increase. This is what WB means by long term prospect.

External growth means using external elements (new business, take over, merger etc) to generate growth. These can be fast growth but usually is not steady.

If a business is making 10 cent/share now and in 10 years time will also make 10 cents/share. Do you think, although at PE 5, the price will go up? More like the price will be relative stagnant, and your returns get eaten by inflation. 10 cents now and 10 cents 10 year later does not have the same buying power. This is a classic value trap.

If we do not even look at growth, we could be stuck in a value trap, where the business is stagnant or declining, while you wait and wait for the next catalyst that may never come. Can see but cannot touch...

Yes it is futile to predict future growth, but even WB and Graham concedes that an investment must have potential future growth to be eligible for investment.

How come no one look at future growth? That should be a major consideration as well isn't it? Should look at historical growth and possible future growth.

Graham prefer companywhich at least double in PBT every 7 years...

Fong Siling left this one out?

Again.. please don't buy this stock.. :)

And yeah... the website sucks...:)

oh.. they also print bank personal cheques and cashiers' cheques...

Fat Cat,

Security documents - Birth cert, Death Cert, Marriage Cert, Passport, Visas, Driving License, Government Certificates, University Certificates, Government Secret Reports, Government/GLC reports, Malaysian budget books, law books.

Also a 20% owned subsidiary Geisecke & Devrient prints Malaysian currency at it's secured Shah Alam plant.

Enough printing for you?

The annual reports list ALL it's subsidiaries and holding company (page 123-126, AR 2012), major ones (not 100% held) is the following :-

1. PT. Nunukan Jaya Lestari - 40k plantation & palm oil mill - via fimacor 95% (effective 48.7%)
2. Amgreen Gain - 5k plantation in bintulu - 52%
3. Marushin Canneries - sardine & tuna - 38%
4. G&S -via fimacor 20% (effective 11.9%)

Fat Cat, I think he is still lurking somewhere in the forum using another nick...

Don't buy....:P