Om Mani pedme hum...huat arr...

At conversion of 15:1 and strike price of 8.88, worth a punt

First time ever

bought 200000 CV @18.5

Posted by John_Lee > Mar 20, 2018 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by Investor48 > Mar 20, 2018 08:10 AM | Report Abuse

Sifu 3iii... thanks for your clear & details explanation.

Can share what is the intrinsic value of HY?

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Investor48, you should know by now that 3iii only knows how to talk theory and negative comment on other pple's calculations and hardwork. It will be terribly surprising if he could come up with an any calculation with supporting facts and numbers

Comment:

Agree with u John. I think he doesn't even know that a discount rate of 4% i.e equivalent to PE 25.

Posted by 3iii > Mar 20, 2018 08:45 AM | Report Abuse

It is better you do your own valuation and decide based on your own analysis.

Comment:

How many are valuers here???

Posted by 3iii > Mar 20, 2018 07:38 AM | Report Abuse

...Assuming you have a company with predictable FCFs, you can choose to discount these FCFs with your risk free FD rate of 4% today. This will give you your intrinsic value. ...

Comment:

Discount Rate of 4% is equivalent to PE of 25 !! Think about it and do your own research as Dragon says.

So how about it 3iii???

Posted by Investor48 > Mar 20, 2018 08:10 AM | Report Abuse

Sifu 3iii... thanks for your clear & details explanation.

Can share what is the intrinsic value of HY?

Comment:

Investor 48, I asked him twice before but he never answered. Hmmm.....

Agree with u Fam. Like I posted much earlier, I can average all the way down up to Rm5 cash buy before I use my margin. No issue for me and hold for very long term if need be.

Oic...I never bought warrants before. Those I have given free..

Posted by John_Lee > Mar 19, 2018 06:24 PM | Report Abuse

Today is the expiry day for CD (RM7.00) and CE (RM8.80). Both issued by Kenanga. Could it be Kenanga who pushed mother down to minimise payout?

Interesting, possible as strong selling in later part of afternoon.

Fam, those days we buy on rumors and a lot based on brotherhood, all together hoot..50% of my passive investments are in properties,30% cash ... rest are in shares and some in high risk ones like crypto..

I have been through several crashes...I am much more prudent now. Prepared to hold for very long term. all cash buy so far.

Today my buy q at 8.38 and 8.28 strike. Won't be buying anymore at this level. My next buy TP is around Rm7 if it ever drops that low...that is unlikely in my view...hahaha..

Anyone can create ID and claim to have bought how much and sold how much, make how much...annoying but we just ignore them...let them be...if we rebut than they will get excited and come out with more nonsense... no end to it...even if they really make so much, good luck and wish them well otherwise just ignore...

Posted by coffeecup > Mar 17, 2018 06:41 AM | Report Abuse

The reason that there was a huge reversal spike on Thursday- Three funds joined the party.
Northern Trust Investments, Inc
SSgA Funds Management Inc
BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited

Blackrock is the world's largest asset manager. That speaks volume!
Happy investing!

Nice Coffee...very good info...However, I am intrigued by the very high volume daily as compared to Petronm. I can't help but think that Chinaman is churning the shares. At this moment, I believe they are collecting and gradually push higher. If the big foreign funds are buying in, eventually Chinaman will push much higher as the sellers at lower levels thin out... so I continue to collect. Monday will buy in at about 8.28... hope to get.

if drop my next batch around 7.80 to 8. no problem..will average all the way if need be.

Bought at 8.78...

Nice coffee. My Shell station sale proceeds will be received this coming Monday. Will add more to average down my cost if price drops or holds at this level. I reckon I will have better and faster returns than operating the station over the mid to long term. Kopi kaw satu lagi...

Just bought at 9.80..

Mar 10, 2018 08:37 PM | Report Abuse

gator sifu, you think can drop to 7 or 5 ? that's very scary

Fil, I not sifu leh...just a long time player got burnt very badly in 97 financial crisis. During this period I was greedy, gung ho and was fully invested, runaway train at full throttle... with no room for error and no spare capacity to buy when the market crashed. Imagine Maybank crashed below RM3 and if I had spare capacity and bought say on the way down and average cost say RM5. With the bonus issues and dividends, it is easily a 20 bagger. Today I would be laughing all the way to the bamk.

I don't think HY will drop to RM 7 or RM5... but my point is u must always have spare capacity to buy in such what if scenario.

I believe can use margin if price is very low. e.g if drop to 7 or 5. Set your own targets when u buy or sell. As always buy in batches. Do not be greedy

Posted by Halite > Mar 10, 2018 06:15 PM | Report Abuse

Crazy. At the end everybody so confused what is true what is not true. The probable reason of high eps but low price still not discussed. The forum is flooded with buy... buy and dumb dumb hold.... Right or wrong is no more important. The winner is those who talk the most talk the loudest

That's why I think must always have a plan. Trade some, average down, take profit etc.

Posted by Hanwen Yeh > Mar 8, 2018 11:47 AM | Report Abuse

Several NON-Issiuing/Brokerhses's remisiers got together to compare notes (selling brokerhse's codes+timing+qties++) & confirmed that the last selldown were actively & viciously coordinated by MAINLY/at least 3 IB to coincide with the new issues of warrants.

This is explosive!!!

Any comment by all the sifus on this post.? I thought it was very interesting and is a high possibility!

Raider,

No need to apologise. We invest and trade at our own risks. We should always have a plan whether investing or trading. I never go all in but buy in batches. And if I average I don't double my bets as will run out of cash in no time. Just buy the same amount as the last batch.

Personally my cost is between RM13 to RM14. I sold 20% when it plunged and bought back at RM8.90 with plan to buy more if it drops further to RM7 but it never did. As it has stabilised and rebounded I shall buy more on Monday.to bring down my average cost.

Today Close..9.88 or 9.98 ????

Wow...naysayers don't make paper angry ok... price go up

Buy and hold with mid to long term view. Trade small positions if u must or for tactical purposes to average down or take profit.

Matter of time before majority of free float shares bought by strong hands and FM than will rocket up.

Trading volume today 8,080,800

Highest price today 9.88

closing yesterday 9.18

Hmmm.....

Posted by paperplane > Mar 8, 2018 08:36 AM | Report Abuse

EPS if RM1.80, at RM9.20 price, PE still 5.1, i don't think too much of concerns if PE<8, cashflows healthy, debt manageable, and dividend already kick start since many QUESTION WHY CHINA firm never pay any dividend, are those cash real?? hehe

Agree with u. paper plane

Filidon,

I am not sifu but I used to play very very big with margin and contra during the 90's...Although I believe HY is a proper and not a rubbish company with manufactured accounts its price movements are similar to second board stock of the old days. Personally, I believe there are operator behind. This round drop so serious could also be due to forced selling.

Sorry to hear about your confidence broken.

Wonder whether KYY margin line reduced by bank due to severe drop in his portfolio and not because as he claimed due to authorities? Bank will not simply reduced margin line without good cause as they may be sued.

Posted by filidon > Mar 7, 2018 06:47 PM | Report Abuse

agreed with Paper sifu, HY is still a good stock. but the roller coaster effect is just too much. Such a high volatile movement is really bad for my heart.

Fill, Cannot play contra. Too volatile. Have to be ready to hold if need be.

Agree with u Probability. I m buying for long term but will trade tactically with about 20 to 20% on my holdings.

Nobody can say for sure how low it will go...buy at measured pace..not all in one go...take profit in batches at different prices...its volatility requires tactical management...

I still haven't touch my margin...if down another 50% than will use margin

No worries...can hold for 10 years...

Posted by pussycats > Mar 6, 2018 08:18 PM | Report Abuse

Gator, no chance, tomorrow morning Hy price goes up then in the afternoon HY goes down. In the morning, I go out first then Gator in the afternoon, u buy HY.... my 2 cents prediction based on today price movement.

Pussy, I bought at 8.89 today ..much lower than my early buy target of Rm10. Early batch paper loss 200k. If go lower again will target buy at around Rm7...

Wow...cheap sale....???

Posted by pussycats > Mar 6, 2018 08:18 PM

Gator, no chance, tomorrow morning Hy price goes up then in the afternoon HY goes down. In the morning, I go out first then Gator in the afternoon, u buy HY.... my 2 cents prediction based on today price movement.

You may be right. I won't chase as I am quite well stocked on HY.

Its ok if it breaks belwo RM10. I will further average around RM8 if it gets to that level. Tactical.

Agreed. Nobody can win all the time. This round I have paper loss of RM150k in Bursa. Loading up to average down.

Posted by BursaTornado > Mar 6, 2018 08:01 PM

Not sure if achievable.
But his track record is good.
But I still believe HY worth more than current valuation.
HY current PE is too low compared to other country for O&G.

I m in agreement with your view

I m still holding my 80%. Time to buy in at this level. Hope will not gap up but wait for me to get my tickets tomorrow.

Volume is comparatively low so should hold above RM12. Still holding my 80%. if break Rm12 will buy some. Tactical

On second thoughts looking at its historical Pe may not be of much use either as petrol prices were subsidised then.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > Mar 1, 2018 09:13 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by Kesley Tan > Mar 1, 2018 08:35 AM | Report Abuse

I think the market is forward looking, so does the PE.
With hengyuan going to pay tax and shutdown 2 months in 2018, are they going to surpass 2017 result?
very hard.

assuming 200EPS whole year 2018, at price rm13, its pe roughly 6.5 - fully valued.

Comment:
You are very good in counting, I believe you will do well in your investment.
There is a benchmark for all refinery stocks in the world.
US refinery stocks are trading at PER = 22
China refinery stocks are trading at PER > 15
Spore refinery stocks are trading at PER = 15
Other refinery stocks worldwide are trading at PER > 15
Assuming like you said, EPS for 2018 is 2.00,
PER = 15, fair price is 30.00.
PER = 10, fair price is 20.00.

No matter how you count, 13.00 is really undervalued.

Assuming we are agreeable on EPS of RM2, than the issue is on PE.It will be interesting to look at the historical PE under Shell Refinery when oil was more stable. Unfortunately we went through a boom and bust cycle (US$120 to US$27) which severely impacted the operational profits. If we have a more stable scenario than perhaps we can have a better insight into its PE.

Whilst a 2 cents dividend is disappointing, the positive side is it shows management is conserving cash for the business. Also bankers may not look too kindly if a high dividend is announced when the company has just recovered after the lean times. Indeed, the majority owner could have pleased shareholders and themselves with a hefty dividend but at the expense perhaps of efficient business and capital management and causing concern to bankers.