Technically, jaks still on uptrend, bullish signal.

It is check and balance in turn of analyze Jaks to not only cover good prospect of its IPP in 2021 onward, but also take into account setback face by Jaks in 2020.

Dear DK66

Up to last quarter result, Jaks still have outstanding commitment RM 220m balance for its 30% stake entitlement in IPP. Do you think the balance construction profit is enough to cover all these commitment?

Jaks in short term will face financial stretch due to pre- opening expense for its new pacific mall and new pacific office tower. Longer LAD and higher evolve mall operation loss also added burden to Jaks financially.

Dear DK66

You have share important profit generating prospect on Jaks IPP, but Jaks also own many other loss making asset still yet to take into full account. Jaks assets in Malaysia is worth RM 600m including evolve mall and upcoming pacific mall and pacific office tower. The new mall and new office tower need high occupancy rate in order to achieve operation breakeven or risk of impairment goodwill if continuous operation loss.

Although Jaks control 51% stake, the other 49% is control by Jaks CEO Andy. Jaks as listed company and have power profit can still offset loss making mall and office tower, but CEO Andy at his capacity may not be able to stand such continue loss. Earlier in last Dec, Andy already opt to gradual transfer some office tower unit and car park lot to Jaks to offset his debt. There is risk for Andy to transfer more loss making investment properties to Jaks in order to absorb continuous loss.

Since goods news already share many here, There are some bad news too many yet to highlight. in the next 2 quarter result, Jaks likely to record loss making quarter.

1. Q1 result (Jan - mar): Vietnam power plant construction activity resume only end of Mar after CNY. Therefore, in Q1 , Jaks only able to record 1 month construction progress profit.

2. Q2 result ( April- june): The Malaysia full impact in MCO on Jaks property development and investment properties will
be recorded. More LAD and higher loss in mall operation.

Also take note that as IPP at tail end of construction, Jaks still have outstanding balance RM 220m to settle for its 30% equity stake need to settle.

Risk and reward

Revise earning for 2020 due to more LAD resulted from MCO, tail end of construction profit from Vietnam power plant and higher evolve mall loss. In additional, jaks still have USD 52m (RM 220) outstanding commitment payable for its 30% stake in IPP. In view of tail end of IPP completion, these outstanding funding either raise through more bank borrowing, fund raising or arrangement to make defer payment through future power profit with CPECC.

Revise earning for 2021 is possible too if take into consideration continue higher evolve mall operation loss, additional new Pacific mall and new Pacific office tower if both also incur operation loss due to low occupancy rate. The continue loss in these properties also subject to risk of impairment in accounting.

Although Jaks control 51% of these properties, but another 49% is control by jaks CEO, Andy. The risk is if Andy cannot hold longer its 49% in these properties due to loss, it may opt to sell 49% back to Jaks. These 3 properties assets are worth RM 600m.


Reward is that Vietnam power plant is at tail end, unit 1 is ready for reliability test, follow by COD. The second unit should be ready after 6 month. In total, the full impact on power profit will be recorded in financial result release on May 2021.

Risk and reward

Revise earning for 2020 due to more LAD resulted from MCO, tail end of construction profit from Vietnam power plant and higher evolve mall loss. In additional, jaks still have USD 52m (RM 220) outstanding commitment payable for its 30% stake in IPP. In view of tail end of IPP completion, these outstanding funding either raise through more bank borrowing or defer payment through future power profit.

Revise earning for 2021 is possible too if take into consideration continue higher evolve mall operation loss, additional new Pacific mall and new Pacific office tower if both also incur operation loss due to low occupancy rate. The continue loss in these properties also subject to risk of impairment in accounting.

Although Jaks control 51% of these properties, but another 49% is control by jaks CEO, Andy. The risk is if Andy cannot hold longer its 49% in these properties due to loss, it may opt to sell 49% back to Jaks. These 3 properties assets are worth RM 600m.


Reward is that Vietnam power plant is at tail end, unit 1 is ready for reliability test, follow by COD. The second unit should be ready after 6 month. In total, the full impact on power profit will be recorded in financial result release on May 2021.

bought all cypark at 91-94.5sen with all capital and leverage up all margin line

sold back all jaks at 1.06, free up all capital and margin line

be patient, the longer jaks stay above key level > RM 1.00, building up solid support, gaining momentum to breakout immediate resistance at 1.05-1.06, once broken, jaks will heading to 1.10-1.15 next level

be patient, the longer jaks stay above key level > RM 1.00, building up solid support, eliminate downside risk, the high odds upside jaks to breakout next level at 1.10-1.15.

IPP project risk

1. Sovereign risk - Vietnam economy is least affected by pandemic covid due to much early prevention step taken. Its economy growth remain at positive growth. Electricity demand is growing steady due to trade war and global strategy relocation manufacture plant. Political and economy stability have greatly reduce Vietanme government sovereign risk

2. Foreign exchange risk - Vietnam government have given undertaking to guarantee IPP power profit is USD denominated. However, some minor foreign exchange risk did incur as power profit is only exchange at end of each month in which Vietnam currency ratio may differ within 30 day in each month.

3. Investment return risk - the PPAs stipulate that IPPs would be paid a fixed capacity payment regularly in exchange for making an agreed electricity capacity available. Should VTN buy the electricity generated, it would then pay energy charges which would also have been fixed in the agreement.

VTN would also be obligated to cover the difference if the price of fuel used to generate electricity rises beyond the agreed price in the PPA. This arrangement of VTN completely bearing the fuel cost risk and these arrangement is guarantee y Vietnamese government

All IPP profit generated are USD denominated and tax free for first 4 year after COD, follow by 5% and thereafter 10% till 25 end of 25 year concession


4. Financing risk - project already funded and completion at tail end now


5. Joint venture risk - CPECC is fortune global 500 and is China state own with vast experience. It have been successful executed the project and power plant is scheduled for trail run with commecial operation by June 2020.


6. legal risk - PPA framework have been throughout examine by stringent banking system to finance project cost and undertaking with endorsement and guarantee by Vietnam government

Market in profit taking mode, jaks bullish sign encounter setback, BUT, overall, cup and handle chart remain intact. More time is needed to solidify base above RM 1.00.

With the closing price at 1.04, the cup and handle chart is formally establish now. Barring unforeseen circumference, jaks share will GAP UP to above RM 1.10 - RM 1.15 range tomorrow.

Technically, Jaks share now is on track to build up to form cup and handle chart <---- a very bullish sign

In stock market, many stock have diversified business segment and its normal that no ALL business segment are profitable. Take for example, defensive stock like YTLP, its power plant 3100 MW in Singapore incur loss due to non-concession and competitive market, its local small power plant 560MW is profitable due to extended concession for another 3 year. It business in Yes network is loss making but is more than enough to cover by its biggest profit segment in UK water concession.

Of course, jaks local property investment like evolve mall and incoming star Pacific project still pose challenging due to operating at loss level and incur LAD till end of June 2020 before hand over to purchaser.

The property investment loss and LAD can be summarized in DK66 article link below.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-27-story-h1483998942-Jaks_Resources_Q4_2019_results.jsp


The upcoming 30% stake in IPP profit projection can be summarized in DK66 article link below. Please take note, the power profit is USD denominated in which profit is subject to currency exchange ratio + all profit is TAX free for first 4 year after COD.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-03-03-story-h1484685319-Jaks_Resources_A_Wild_Estimate_Based_on_Vinh_Tan_1_s_Abbreviated_Result.jsp

In short, after nett off local property investment loss, the IPP profit is still at net profit above RM 200m or EPS= 30sen. Even if take into VERY serious scenario in which MCO continue in force and mall continue closed, another additional potential expense cost and impairment incur -RM 70m, Jaks still able to nett off profit RM 130m or EPS 20sen

Q1: Why Andy Ang not buying more?

A: Based on annual report, Andy Ang only earn annual salary about RM 1.868m. Take note, Any have NO director fee. Only non-executive director entitle director fee RM 60k per annual. As Jaks concentrate its financial resource to complete power plant, there is no dividend declare to shareholder.

Thus, without dividend entitlement + director fee and with such modest annual salary, Any Ang have limited financial strength to continue buy share in open market.

But, Any already through previous jaks grant option, fully utilize grant option to entitle more share in jaks. However, such grant entitlement is at Jaks expense, but, these is nonrecurring grant option at least within 5 year due to one off fully utilization.

In essence, the PPAs stipulate that IPPs would be paid a fixed capacity payment regularly in exchange for making an agreed electricity capacity available. Should VTN buy the electricity generated, it would then pay energy charges which would also have been fixed in the agreement.

VTN would also be obligated to cover the difference if the price of fuel used to generate electricity rises beyond the agreed price in the PPA. This arrangement of VTN completely bearing the fuel cost risk and these arrangement is guarantee y Vietnamese government

All IPP profit generated are USD denominated and tax free for first 4 year after COD, follow by 5% and thereafter 10% till 25 end of 25 year concession.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-04-20-story-h1506044437-Jaks_Resources_Risk_assessment_by_CPECC.jsp

Remark: NOT all power producer have such lucrative power purchase agreement. Tje for example, YTLP in Singapore power plant have NO PPA at all, is non concession, bear own risk in generate power and subject to competition in open market. These scenario also similar to Genting power plant in China, is non concession binding, therefore, no profit guarantee. Mudajaya power plant in India despite have BOT agreement, but, the risk is NOT guarantee by Indian government.

Possible last chance to buyback jaks at < RM 1 today before IPP start trial run, follow by commecial run to generate maiden power profit.

leverage up from margin line, bought all jaks at 99sen

add last batch jaks at 1.01

sold back teoseng at 1.11-1.12

bought back Jaks at 1.04

bought bjland at 19sen

sold back jaks-wb at 80-81.5sen

sold back all cypark at 88sen

leverage balance, bought back cypark at 82.5sen

Leverage up, add all jaks-wb at 77sen

bought back jaks-wb at 76-77sen

Proposing to build slag waste disposal site of BOT Thermal Power Plant
WEDNESDAY, 4/15/2020 13:07:29

The BOT Thermal Power Plant project has implemented 90% of the construction and installation volume, preparing to test unit 1 but the slag dump of the project has not been built.

The Provincial People's Committee has just proposed the Prime Minister to consider and agree on the policy of constructing slag waste dump of the Hai Duong BOT Thermal Power Plant project (Kinh Mon) invested by JAKS Hai Duong Power Company Limited.

So far, the BOT Thermal Power Plant project has implemented 90% of the construction and installation volume, preparing to test unit 1 but the slag dump of the project has not been built.

The location of the slag disposal site is located in the beach area of ​​Kinh Thay River, at the foot of Sau Mountain. The slag dam barrier is 150-400 m from the edge of the river, about 600 m from the connection point between Sau Mountain and the right bank of Kinh Thay River, about 400 m downstream. Slag reservoir is located in Sau mountain valley.

https://baohaiduong.vn/kinh-te---tieu-dung/de-nghi-xay-bai-thai-xi-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-133744

bought teoseng at 1.05-1.06

bought back paramount at 71-72sen

Locked all profit first

sold back all Dsonic at 99.5sen

sold back all jaks at 99.5-1.00, locked all profit, deleverage margin to nil, keep portfolio all in cash

DK66

The coal have loaded in coal transmission system to transport coal power. The coal will ground into a fine powder by a pulverizer is then blown into boiler, burn produce heat that turns water into steam, which then turns turbines in a generator. The generator spins and produces electricity and connect to national grid to meet country electricity demand. These pre-run testing will last for 36 hr for reliability test, if all parameter meet optimization, fulfill requirement performance, then it can start commecial operation. estimate time frame can be as soon as next month May for first unit to start commecial operation. http://www.aepc1.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/4/12/art_14631_2102511.html

The installation of a large number of equipment in the power plant Hai Duong project is gradually in place. The project construction has entered the stage of single-unit debugging and pre-startup inspection. The coal transportation system and main equipment in the main plant have been loaded with coal and oil

KEYWORD: 海阳项目主厂房内大量设备安装逐步就位，项目建设进入了单体调试和整套启动前的检查准备阶段，主厂房内输煤系统和主体设备已上煤和带油....

leverage up, bought Dsonic at 90.5sen

leverage up, add more jaks at 93.5sen

Dear OTB

Every strategy have its strength and weakness. The higher odds than probability can be achieved through your analysis on technical point of view + >30 year stock investment experience + fundamental studied as underlying base + business sense on IPP (e.g Jaks). Keep up your good job in helping your subscriber to better manage their stock portfolio, your sincerely and honestly cannot be value on mere subscription cost 1k.

Dear reloy

It is no fair to OTB to judge him on change tone on stock pick. These is because OTB already disclaim that his method is technical come first, fundamental second. Exactly due to these method, the technical is influence by daily news and momentum keep change in response market sentiment, oil and stock market all fluctuate on daily basis, therefore, OTB have studies thoroughly technical chart and try to extract these information based on technical point of view and on short term basis.

bought back jaks at 96sen

Portfolio cut all myeg at 97.5sen, deleverage all margin line. Cut loss first, to re-enter later on weakness

Leverage all margin, all to myeg at 1.00

bought all myeg at RM 1.00

Locked all profit already, now portfolio in full cash position and deleverage margin line back to nil.

sold off all jaks at 89sen-89.5sen, lock all profit first