Portfolio return back all to jaks

bought back all jaks at 70sen

maxprofit2020

Thanks, I now keep almost all cash in portfolio.

cut all jaks at 78-79sen

Dear OTB

If possible, explain to Mr Koon, with power plant ready for COD soon and tumbling oil price. The odds for Jaks to double its share price from 83sen to > 1.60 is much higher than Dayang to rebound back from 1.26 to > RM 2.50 within 3-6 month time.

After all, you have helping Mr Koon many time previously, kindly lend your good hand again to Mr Koon. Our society still need Mr Koon, a charity man and sponsor scholarship to those needed.

Dear OTB

Glad to hear you have busy time to buy more Jaks at current level. Perhaps you should advice too to MR Koon to take these opportunity to buy back Jaks instead of keeping Dayang. These is on the fact that Jaks will post increasing profit trend when power plant profit start recorded, whereas, Dayang will post decreasing profit trend as tumble crude oil already force oil company to scale back upstream capex significantly to conserve cash. Many of the oil service maintenance are on call out basis, once oil company cut capex, less service require from Dayang. The low oil price likely will persist for prolong time due to travel ban.

Lets turn to POSITIVE

Stay calm now, already fully invested. lets market readjust itself.

Jaks business is concession type of power generation in high growth Vietnam. Nothing wrong buy beaten down defensive business in time of bearish market.

These is last capital i have, all in jaks today.......

add more jaks at 77-78sen

sold back carimin at 52-52.5sen

add more at 50sen

bought back carimin at 50.5sen

Dear OTB

Thanks for your update with Jaks management. The Jaks power plant specification is higher than Hai Duong power plant even have higher spec than Vinh Tan 1. A suggestion to use the earning of Vinh Tan 1 to project the earning of Hai Duong power plant.


So, based on DK66 analysis on Vinh Tan 1 power current earning, the upcoming jaks profit is realistically materialize begin in next 1-2 month when IPP start COD.

Vinh Tan 1 is 55% owned by China Southern Power Grid. The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 9 months ended 30th Sept 2019 was RMB 1,127m ( 9 months 2018 : RMB754m)

The PATNCI of China Southern Power Grid for 2018 which is attributable to Vinh Tan 1 was RMB56m

Calculation

Increase = RMB 1,127m - RMB 754m = RMB373m

Prorate to 12 Months = RMB373m/9 x 12 = RMB497m

Add 2018 PATNCI = RMB497m + RMB56m = RMB553m
100% Vinh Tan 1 PAT = RMB553 / 45% = RMB1,230m

At 7 USD/RMB Ex Rate = RMB1,230m / 7 = USD176m

At 4.2 USD/RM Ex Rate = USD176m x 4.2 = RM738m

Conclusion

Vinh Tan 1 has proven that power plants under BOT contracts in Vietnam are highly profitable.

For Jaks,

@30% sharing = RM221m = EPS RM 0.34

@40% sharing = RM295m = EPS RM 0.45

Hence, 10 times PE values Jaks between RM3.40 to RM4.50 and 15 times PE values Jaks between RM5.10 to RM6.75

bought bsck jsks at 90-90.5sen

cut naim at 67.5-68sen

cut carimin at 57-58

cut dayang at 1.21-1.23

cut 41-41.5sen

bought back naim at 72sen

bought back hibicus at 43.5sen

bought back carimin at 64-65sen

bought back dayang at 1.31

sold balance paramount at 1.34

cut all at 66-67sen

cut all at 1.38-1.39

cut all at 45.5-46.5sen

add hibiscus at 46.5sen to average down cost

add more dayang at 1.40

bought hibicus at 47.5-48sen

bought back carimin at 70-70.5sen

bought back dayang at 1.43-1.44

sold back naim at 74.5sen

sold back carimin at 68-69sen

sold back dayang at 1.40

bought back naim at 72-72.5sen

bought dayang at 1.27-1.29

bought back carimin at 65-65.5sen

sold back vs at 1.10

sold back naim at 73.5sen

sold back carimin at 67.5-68en

sold back uzma at 51.5sen

sold back dayang at 1.32-1.33

bought VS at 1.07-1.08

bought naim at 71.5sen

bought back at 1.25

bought uzma at 48sen

bought carimin at 65sen

Thanks maxprofit2020 for sharing technical point of view. Sentiment supersede now.....

sold back at 2.65, cut loss