lets see how low it can go....will stat collecting from now....

bought some back at 7.50....

Will start collecting again once it goes below 7.50.....

Vaccines will not remove the need for gloves, but reduce the volume needed....

The price of glove stocks now depends solely on the asp, which is what drives the pat.....

A few things will reduce asp....

Less need (less sick people)
Less stockpiling
More production by existing manufacturers
New players entering

Which is the immediate threat?

@findfreedom I don't bother nowadays with IPO....

I moved to Supermax after latexx was taken private and stuck with it....through the cycles made some small money....this is the first time it went so high, and I made a significant sum....

The market is always forward looking....

How far ahead, depends....

Gloves will continue to have a good run in sales and pat for maybe 3-4 quarters.....but after that it will inevitably fall, from dropping asp when shortages are over....

The market factors that in already....that's why even Supermax never went over 24, despite pat calculations indicating it should be doubled....

Where the price is, between the real long term value (3-4) and high pat value (25-50) depends on market sentiments....

At some point, even sentiments cannot drive the price up anymore, even with a few quarters of still high pat...that's the time to exit....

Is that now?....I don't know....I don't think so....yet....

Banks and gambling and consumer goods have a much more stable income base. Gloves is cyclical. It's low margin, volume sensitive business. Historically, they all give poor dividends. So it's always cycles of demands (ie epidemic/pandemic) that yields your profits. I have Supermax shares since 15 years and went through 4 previous cycles. This is the best.

Those who are trapped with large paper losses, if can tahan, hold lah....the glove play isn't over yet.....I predict the balloon will inflate again....maybe not to the previous level....

Future pat is what's driving the bubble....target prices based on what Q1, Q2 will earn....

Not unreasonable basis, that's how companies are valued commonly.....

Except in this case, the future pat is temporarily.....

It's a bargain if the bubble reinflate....

It's a trap if reality deflates the balloon....

Today still good support at 7.90 level....

My estimate on real value at new normal asp and expanded production, assuming can sell 100%, with pe 25.....about rm3-4 (pre split 6-8)....

Big profit margins, if given as dividends (non so far) will add in the value....if they give RM1 dividend per share, then add RM1 to price (will drop RM1 once ex)....

Of course if sentiments good, uncle aunty feeding the bubble, it can be any price....got people calculate future pat and say 15, 25, 50....lol

Overall sentiments...big drop overnight in us, techs all lost big percentages....

It's not the vaccines that is pushing price down....it's loss of sentiments, and busting of the bubble....

Taking profit now, although much lower than the highs....this bear isn't going to stop soon, with all the negative news....buy back when it reachs the bottom and reverse....

Why people keep on saying "sell bonus shares"? There is NO "bonus"....only share split.... unfortunately wrongly called "bonus shares" giving the wrong impression....

1.5 mil shares at 7.50....who?....epf?

heavy buying into a step up maybank price, oushing the klci into green....

Jess02 Everyday drop rm0.50-0.60...if drop more 3days..will become rm6++..heart broken..anyone know y drop so much glove counter compare to others?just because of bonus issue?anyone can tell me it will rebound bck?rebound to what price?why all IB give buy call..tp rm12.50?
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buy on rumour sell on fact....google what it means...

never trust ib tp....they are holding shares themselves, and can be bias in advice....as well as plain wrong in calculations...

any rebound will depend on sentiments, and rumours....but not the q1 earnings, as it is already mostly factored in already....

interesting....the tg curve today is EXACTLY the same as supermax....

instead of v shape recovery, it's a inverted v bear trap....lol

indeed a bear trap....so who bought at 8.80?

there will always be a technical rebound, once it drops continuously for a few days....

i am going to key in sell at 8.88....lol

the last time it closed at 8.88, it dropped like a stone the next day....

lost steam already....

rocket, better shout sell now....lol

If you do the opposite of Teamrocket, you are usually right....lol

there is no v recovery, unlike corrections during the bull period....at best a u recovery, if at all.....

the wisdom is not wrong....sell on fact....

what's the next rumour?...q1 report?

I think the speculative bull is over....many are holding at 10-12 level and will sell once the price goes up....the selling pressure will limit how far it can go up....

It will be flat from here waiting for Q1, Q2, and hoping some dividend will be given....even the announced 1:45 treasure shares distribution also habuk pun tak ada at the moment....

Traditionally, Supermax is NOT a dividend share....they give pittance dividends....

Common mistake to try value a stock price based purely on short term excess profits. The market is wiser than speculative retail players.

Flat directionless trading...everybody just holding and waiting.....waiting for what?

Chua Joe Beng @jacklimeu2 when d foreign buyers holds d shares it won't b cheap anymore for u or anyone!
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Foreign funds are not stupid. They are not going to hold something at 10 when the price in 2 years will be 3-5( calculated based on generous ASP double pre covid-19)....they will wait till it drops to 5 before buying....

Anyone wants to know value in 2 years, calculate earnings based on ASP when there is no more shortage.... that will be the "new normal"....lol

Grace, don't keep gloves at current prices for long term. It will never go back up to this level. The next opportunity to make profit, take profit. This run will last another 1-2 quarters. But it will eventually drop to rm3-5 when demand and ASP normalise.

Really sell on fact....last nights wall street collapse didn't help...

You can assume you have double the shares now and can trade all of them.

the sentiment is so bad now, even rumour and pre fact cannot raise buying....tomorrow will sell down some more....too bad....i bet on the normal of share split, prices moving up normally....so kept instead of selling pre split....regretted not selling at 22 and take profit....never mind, wait for the next "panic buying"....lol

@grace look at trade Volume from 4.50 to 5.00pm....

Doesn't make sense, if uncle aunties buying for BI then price should go up...

7 million shares bought at 20.30 at closing 10 min fixed trade.....wonder who bought....

Too busy today...tried to buy at 19.50, didn't hit....

quite interesting outcome to share splits this time....looks like it's sell before fact.....

Don't even get buy on rumour this time.... already sell before fact.....

GiantPanda


$$$ SUPERMX Fair Price = RM 4.55 x RM 400 Million / RM 16 Million = RM 111. 54 (Ex-Bonus = RM 55.78) $$$
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Come, I sell to you now at your calculated price....lol

Post removed.Why?

sell on fact, the last 4 facts either no reaction or drop....

the russian vaccine is still not used in any significant numbers...whether it actually works or not is unknown....and vaccines will have minimal effects on cases until at least 60% of the population are vaccinated....

The north American market is always 12hrs behind....there was plenty of time for the Monday session (ie last night) to key in buys if they are really buying...

Looking at all the milestones non events, I am thinking it's all factored in already, and buy on rumour and sell on fact will happen again after the split....

Chicken rice, but yes, often get some trading profits here and there....not today...lol

Flat as a pancake....no trading possible today....and msci is a non event....

Like the syariah index, msci means nothing....lol