yup why petron is trading at a discount to petdag is not only because they are smaller but also because their earnings are relatively volatile. if they can manage to churn steady profits like petdag then they will probably get re-rate to mid-teens PE

I don't think Petron Corp would privatise it. it's good for them to keep a market presence and be visible since it's a Philippines brand

got new contract

@ckk2266 good to see you again
lol I'm behind you so my orders@1.3 only get partially filled

wasted! que at lower price only get partially filled

higher selling price and improved margins, let's see will petron follow the same trend

nothing personal, sorry if I sound harsh. but one needs to understand that good intention doesn't excuse ignorance. we need to understand what we can do and what are simply time-wasting efforts. it's fine if you have time to spare, but don't waste that of others. just my 2 cents

apparently the plantation deal falls below the requisite % ratio so don't even need shareholder approval

testing the strength of your heart, if you really believe in this counter, these few days may be your chance to enter

tomorrow last day, see if investors like to do it last min

price movement looks really weird, even shell has rebounded

it would be better if investors derive their own target price and decide whether there's still upside. don't just get excited when prices go up or depressed when it goes down

I like the metaphor. IMO it's definitely not in penang yet but sometimes traffic jam is unavoidable. if you think there's a better lane, you can always switch over. no right or wrong

anyway, regardless of the outcome, I am still waiting for earnings to explode while puncak has to work hard to even breakeven

seriously, you think no one thought about the "genius" cash option before? no one did it because there's no legal grounds. selected capital reduction is an alternative to a takeover/privatisation and it has to be extended to everyone other than the offeror, not selected group of minorities. and there's no such thing as shareholders ask regulator to order the company to privatise it

if SC open the floodgates (which is idiotic both from regulator and market observers' point of view), hundreds of cash rich companies will disappear from Bursa in months. start from BJCorp, Insas, Farlim, ICap etc.

I suspect triplc won't submit so soon. if you notice, puncak needs sc clearance for change in biz direction. so before sc clears puncak, bursa can't approve puncak and triplc circulars, so maybe triplc is waiting for the go ahead. just my theory

EIA publish these data every week, they fluctuate week to week and it's more for futures traders

seems like the price was reacting to the high US gasoline inventory data and lower refining spread last week. that's why both petron and shell dropped today, but not sure why petdag price not affected

decent results, but market seems to have priced in a higher growth rate

unfortunately FCF is an important but much less sexy investing ratio. many investors only pay attention to EPS

interesting. we shall see whether is it real dumping or to purposely press it before pulling up once the results are out

finally WB premium expand a bit

not necessary, petdag makes good profit in essentially the same biz. petron for some reason, has more volatile earnings compared to petdag, that's why it's valued much lower

so I'm cautiously optimistic on coming results, but not overly bullish due to some uncertainties. let's see how it will turn out

for dividend, like what I said above, it's not about capability as they have very strong cashflows, it's more of management intention. although I think they will pay but there was 1 year in 2015 when they didn't pay dividend, again just a note of caution

personally I'm not worried on forex translation loss because those are unrealised, but for petron their raw material crude oil is quoted in USD and so raw material cost will go up when RM weakends. so does their payables which have to be settled in USD, those are real costs for them when they make payments in USD. there were some quarter when they have pretty big forex loss

Brent was around $51 in 4Q, if in RM terms it actually increased more compared to 3Q (due to RM weakening) so although crack spread was stable in 4Q, they are quoted in USD and didn't factor when your cost is USD while selling mostly in RM.

that's why, despite what I saw as positive data (better retail and brent price for inventory gains, stable crack spread) supporting the coming results, some caution should be exercised as I'm not exactly sure of the extent of impact by forex

and they have very strong free cashflow, dividend shouldn't be a problem if they are willing to pay

Good: petrol retail price up in 4Q
Bad: forex risk as 4Q ringgit weakened quite badly

looks like this coming quarter results should b similar if not better than last quarter. crack spread and brent price was better in 4Q than 3Q...

it's actually in his best interest to go ahead. his flagship company puncak will continue to struggle without a proper biz in the short term and if inject a biz, better inject one of his own.

but that said in life anything is possible. at least Triplc should survive just fine without Puncak, but not the other way round

fyi, par value regime was abolished in jan 2017

PBT actually dropped compared to last quarter but net profit increased because of lower tax rates. but nonetheless still a good quarter

the price went up last time when the vietnam project starts but price tanked when there were hiccups and delays. now it's return of the big funds as their project seems to be running ok again

its main contribution is the vietnam power plant construction. as long as that project goes on smoothly like last quarter, then profit should be fine. possible upside from other ongoing contracts and possible downside from the mall losses

behind every trade is a human being and different person has different reasons to do different things.

some just want the dividend in their pocket so go for the mother, some funds cannot buy warrant so go for mother, some just afraid when price correct warrant will correct more in % so there could be so many different reasons. we may think warrant has higher upside but others' reasoning are not wrong either, that's what makes the market interesting

next quarter results could be weaker qoq despite strong ringgit due to seasonal fluctuations. and don't forget it has warrants so it's not exactly cheaper when compared to other furniture counters if you use diluted eps for PE. this counter may need to hold longer before it can move

very low liquidity

ytd wb is already up 35% while mother is up 25%. if warrant premium expand will be even better....

the ex-date is 23 Feb, so that means as long as you buy on or before 22 feb, you will be eligible

5 for 2 share split means you get 5 new shares for existing 2 shares. so for your case, 2000/2 x 5 you will have 5,000 shares next time

it's announced yesterday, read the fine print
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5335881

investors are already looking ahead

I just repeat the formula many have produced earlier
Mother: (2.98-0.25)x2/5 = 1.09
Son: 1.58x2/5 = 0.63
New exercise price = 0.48
Premium = (0.63+0.48)/1.09 = 1.8% for 2.5 years to expiry

the current market price is also a simple function of supply and demand. many people want the special dividend so buy mother now. after 23 Feb, warrant premium could normalise for cheaper exposure and higher leverage

if you buy warrants now, you can only exercise after T+3 (warrant must appear in your CDS account) and depending on the speed of the share registrar, it will usually takes a few days to process. I think last time the registrar I contacted their official answer is 7 working days, although it was completed earlier than that. that's my experience converting warrants

warrant almost zero premium now when everybody chasing mother

congrats to those who held tightly all this while

although many is expecting a lower qoq profit, this is really surprisingly weak, wonder how other steel counters will do this quarter?

going up very strongly, coming results if make 3-4c EPS then it might still has legs to go up further, just hope that their EPC contract don't slow down

UMWOG will submit circular in 4 months time, if approved by Bursa in 2-3 months, EGM 1 month, easily 7-8 months before takeover will be conducted. that's how long you should prepare to hold if you want that 50c

read it carefully, they intend to maintain the listing status.

it's just a mandatory takeover, they don't want to buy your shares, maybe that's why they time their announcement to push up the price so that nobody will accept their offer

and they can afford to dump because the conversion price is at 20% discount to tanco market price at any time they wish to convert. Tanco really desperate for cash to get into this kind of lopsided deal

be careful with the big shark, Advance Opportunities Fund. They are going to subscribe RM100m worth of MTNs in the next 3 years, convertible into Tanco shares and they will dump in the market (because they can't hold more than 10% at any time). Compared to their today's market cap around RM30m...