from what I understand, most IBs are still old school. they will send you a cheque by post

capital city project already factored in by market 2 years ago. the fact is investors are just not too enthusiastic with property, let alone johor property. once this project ends, gadang doesn't have many significant projects in the pipeline anymore

kyy needs to support his jaks and sendai. fundamentally liihen valuation is still cheap and doing well, not to mention its high dividend yield. seems like the older he gets, the more speculative he becomes. hopefully he doesn't lose his retirement fund, especially when he's playing with margins

sometimes have to admire the author's imagination

another misleading article.
1. look at the announcement back in 2015, they are selling 80 acres land around that area for only RM22m. 450 acres may only get you around RM125m. even if you are right, if I'm the buyer, I will squeeze your price. I offer half price, take it or face bankruptcy, eden in no position to bargain
2. company still losing RM20-30m a year
3. the liabilities around RM200m need to settle. PPE in trouble, value doubtful, no profit deferred tax assets will be written off. left with investment properties (mainly the 450 acre land) and around RM120m current assets. assuming even if they get full book value for the land and current assets (RM160+120m) less liabilities RM200m, you get RM80m but it would take time to dispose. say 1 year, factoring in losses RM20-30m, eden value should be around RM50-60m. now eden market cap RM85m, good luck for those who punt on it

you are welcome. everyone makes mistake, including me. we just try to learn from each other. keep up the good work

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/06/serba-dinamik-says-qatar-diplomatic-spat-has-not-impacted-operations/

Qatar revenue exposure make up 20% of total revenue as at 1QFY17. In terms of order book, 10% of total O&M order book is from Qatar, which amounted to RM400m (to last until 2021). We spoke with Dato Karim (Group CEO) this morning. Contrary to negative impact expected on Serba, he see this as a good opportunity as Qatar may ramp up production activities and ultimately led to higher demand for maintenance activities. In addition, Qatar major gas customers are mainly Japan, China and India with little relation to the mentioned Gulf countries above. At current moment, Serba do not see any issues in terms of operations and logistic. Nonetheless, the company is currently monitoring closely the situation. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in the worst case scenario whereby Serba’s Qatar contracts get terminated, this would result in our existing 2017-19E EPS forecast lower by an average 3-4%. We maintain our BUY call with RM2.40 target price based on 11x 2017E EPS.

From Affin Hwang

people panicky because they have exposure to qatar but they will probably be surprised maintenance contracts are more resilient than they thought

hahaha is this supposed to be a satire?

if gkent has stayed as a water meter company, the price would have stayed there as well. construction companies don't grow at a constant %, it all depends on the orderbook and gkent's orderbook is often misunderstood as bulk of it is LRT PDP. simply assume a constant growth rate at your peril

NFO industry is being squeezed by underground and online gambling. no younger generations spotted in toto or magnum stores nowadays

good effort but allow me to give some inputs

1.your overall assumptions are quite bullish as they are based on historical highs or close to it. eg net profit margin is 15%, I briefly played with the model, slight decrease in margin would reduce the valuation significantly
2. assuming that demand is all there to take is dangerous. demand may not grow as rapid as the capacity and never discount competition, especially in manufacturing.
3. looking at forecast sales and profit to 2019, compound growth is expected to be >30% a year. I am not too sure if the industry or SCGM is going to grow that rapidly and continuously over the next 3 years
4. for margin of safety, I would suggest instead of using MGS yield, try simulating how far the assumptions would need to change which would change your investment basis. if it's too sensitive, than your margin of safety may not be as high as you think

just my 2 cents

from my limited understanding of the industry, I think precast concrete is the future. unlike simply supplying cement or building materials, this is a higher skilled industry and can save time, costs and need for labour (if done right and in reasonable scale). its fate is closely tied with construction and property industries. construction is still booming, offsetting the sleeping property industry. and precast concrete industry should only grow as more construction and property players adopt the technology

apologies topglove shareholders for writing here, nothing specific to do with topglove

yes leverage is good but risks are higher. so only get into warrants if you understand and can stomach the risks

I explained it before in ekovest-wb and petron-cb, all warrants and call warrants are double edged sword, giving you higher returns when uptrend but higher downside risks when it reverses.my first rule of warrants is only go for companies with good fundamentals, lousy companies warrants no matter how cheap don't touch. if you like the company, then can consider some of its warrants/call warrants

C17 looks interesting, longest expiry yet lowest premium

haha shareholders here are in good mood today, when my first article was published, the price was around 1.40-1.50. unlike you. I already explained what I need in 4 articles, do I need to say more?

all my blog posts and comments can be traced, I am consistent in what I say and they are all supported by logical reasoning and facts, unlike some bitter loser keep trying to spew lies or twist other's words. if psychologically unwell, please use some of the money you earned from triplc today to seek treatment, don't be a hazard to the society

just chill, most of the new FBM 70 index entrants are property companies. index funds that don't want to add more property companies are going to come for petron. even a few funds buying is enough since the liquidity for this stock is low

be careful, many of the land acquired are not developing yet. profit is likely to remain shitty for short term so your money could be stuck in this counter for a while

hahaha joker. of course, didn't you make profit on each and every one of the top % gainers today?

big glove players pass on costs to buyers after 1-2 months lag so higher rubber price will affect them only temporarily. topglove coming quarter results is Mar-May, just look at how much rubber costs has dropped in April and May compared to Dec-Feb. this coming quarter profit should be better yoy and qoq

I pity the long suffering puncak shareholders so I wrote an article 6 months ago, highlighting what will be the impact for puncak from triplc acquisition. fyi once Z1P3 contract commences, triplc earnings can translate to >10c eps for puncak (before other division losses). really pity rmoi. people can be born stupid but being stupid and lazy is the worst combination.

and I also emphasise many times before why I chose Triplc over Puncak because it is a deep value company with a functioning biz and new contract earnings to kick in regardless if the acquisition goes through or not. Puncak on the other hand has no future until it acquires profit-making biz (triplc or otherwise) and by now puncak shareholders should realise that rozali is not liquidating puncak or distributing dividend

not sure if it's my bias but nowadays I noticed many restaurants, eateries or mamak are using petron gasul LPG. I remember not so long ago I used to see petronas LPG everywhere

joker rmoi. at least triplc I can safely say it's a counter with future, with or without puncak. a stable concession company with new concession earnings to be recognised vs a company saddled with nothing but cash and loss-making biz. even MSWG agrees that at RM3, triplc is the one who got shortchanged in the deal (you can ask kahhoeng, he was the one who got the MSWG reply)

a practical investor works within a realistic parameter. face it, rozali will not shut down puncak. if puncak loss-making biz continue, the best thing for them is to acquire companies that contribute earnings immediately (plantation is long term). market don't value loss-making companies. only with profit, then puncak can get re-rated and puncak shareholders get their long awaited return. but I guess limited minds just couldn't see that

exactly, might as well say bet big in bitcoin. you should be a billionaire by now

It's in a good industry riding on the giants' big name. but track record, brand, customer relationship is not there. unlike the big boys, maybe it's too optimistic to assume additional capacity will directly translate into additional sales.

the angle I think most investors are counting on is if the one quarter strong results continue and annualised PE gets closer to the big boys. potential upside maybe, but multi-bagger may be a bit exaggerated

good company, good track record and in a growing industry.
now revenue is relatively flat as they focus on selling higher margin products, if they can grow both volume and margins then this stock will really explode

I published this more than 6 months ago.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purelysharing/107442.jsp

In there, I already warned about:
i) dishonest writing by CIMB analyst
ii) misleading orderbook
iii) chances of delay in construction projects (since most are in property development)
iv) share price being over-valued

one by one, it seems to be proving me correct. people kept bashing saying that I have hidden agenda but whoever took my advice back then would have saved themselves from all these heart attacks and invested in other counters (most likely would have gone up this year)

lesson is, listen to others but do your own proper research. then you will not be misled easily.
will it rebound? definitely, it's just a matter of time and how low it goes down first. 10c? 5c? especially now that revenue really stalled and no institutional investors dare to touch this company anymore. so good luck to whoever still holding this counter

seems like some puncak shareholders have already been driven insane, celebrating lower quarterly losses. better pray that triplc shareholders will sell the biz to you, if not based on current biz there's no hopes of a turnaround

if u look at EV/FCF, you will realise how cheap Petron is, even when compared to other so called cashcows like highway operators. commodity biz is more volatile but still the valuations are too cheap to ignore

it's a decent result for mkh. don't understand why the shareholders are so panicky

hehehe people have short memory. remember previous quarter good results, price surged (6.60/8.90), then came back down and consolidate around (5.80/8.00) for some time before it goes up again (8.90/??)? I like the pattern that I see

like I said before, if people have unrealistic expectations then no one can help it
I'll get my usual break as this page turns rowdy

just some crack spread data update for those interested
4Q16 vs 1Q17 vs 2Q17 so far
Tapis Asia: 6.78/8.47/8.50
Minas Asia: 11.03/11.95/11.93
US Gulf: 10.61/11.96/13.38
Northwest Europe: 9.42/9.50/11.61

like I said before, if people have unrealistic expectations then no one can help it
I'll get my usual break as this page turns rowdy

just some crack spread data update for those interested
4Q16 vs 1Q17 vs 2Q17 so far
Tapis Asia: 6.78/8.47/8.50
Minas Asia: 11.03/11.95/11.93
US Gulf: 10.61/11.96/13.38
Northwest Europe: 9.42/9.50/11.61

forget about profit, free cashflow RM300-400m a year, love it

hehehe, sell sell sell

good garage sale, switch from warrant to mother

not much, I never hold too much call warrants at one time

the results at least show that Airasia biz model is not as vulnerable as AAX

CC premium is too high for my liking

cleared all my CB. dividend coming in June and expiring in July

a lot of profit-taking...

I think hengyuan by PE is definitely cheap but there are a few factors working against it

1. not every investor can take pure oil refiner's earnings volatility. crack spread is good now but can change anytime
2. china companies reputation is too bad in Malaysia already, most fund managers won't buy to avoid getting query
3. they already guided will need to spend RM1b in 2018, shut down the plant to upgrade to comply with regulations. so medium to longer term investors may shy away from it
4. high debts and cashflow not as strong. the net debt will only get worse with the RM1b capex upcoming

fair PE is anyone's guess. I don't have hengyuan but happy for hengyuan shareholders as well. just be aware of the downside risk

my view on the incredible results:

1) RM108m is definitely a positive surprise for me. personally, I still think inventory gains/losses do affect their results and last quarter should be a loss (if I make inventory value adj, the margin trend is in line with the crack spread data). so despite inventory losses, the effect of better crack spread is greater than I expected. my profit target of RM300m seems very achievable now

2) Sales volume 8.3m is a record quarter similar to 4Q16

3) Company's commercial biz seems to be doing well (no much info provided) and manage to sell more high margin products

4) Net debt now only RM45m, down from RM136m in 4Q16. Net cash is just a matter of time

5) Free cashflow very strong at RM90m. again my RM300m free cashflow target seems very achievable. if the company wants to expand, such strong free cashflow would easily sustain it or allow it to get sufficient borrowings

bottom line, if crude oil and refined product price stay relatively stable, i.e. steady crack spread at this level, petron's future is shining bright

for me, petron is still a better choice since it has best of both worlds, refining and retail. plus their plant is ready unlike hengyuan, who will need to shut down the plant and upgrade to comply with regulations. that kind of capex is just maintenance capex not really adding to growth whereas if petron spend for new plant that will be for a new growth cycle

management mentioned they will need to shut down and upgrade their refinery to comply with more stringent environment standards. analyst expecting it to cost RM1b. maybe that's why the gains today are capped

hengyuan being pure refining profit volatility is always the highest, be it swing high or low. in terms of profit swing, hengyuan > petron > petdag. it just happens that now is a good time for refiners

wow hengyuan numbers really strong, can petron get better numbers as well