lcwin, well described a possible scenario that our MSWG, Bursa and SC seems to keep and eye closed

kaikai, Malaysia is a Boleh Land. While I am holding tight to my shares, I believe that if 'desired', Puncak can be kept at low price, even as low as 0.80 suggested by some. And our MSWG is much more interested to know why's minority shareholders of Shell in UK not getting a fair deal than voicing out for minority shareholders in Malaysia! Meanwhile, our Bursa Malaysia and SC are too busy to even ask Puncak's BOD if anything is being done (be reminded, Puncak is now technically PN 16 given its cash is more than 70% of asset.) Best yet, Puncak's BOD is not concerned about Puncak's absurd valuation in the market...

I also want to know, but know one thing, it would be crazy to sell now...

hng33, you also trade petron? I was very lucky to have sold mine at 6.85 to put a break on potential losses in Shell a while back. Still, wonder if I should buy Petron (stronger balance sheet and dividend) or add more Shell (weaker balance sheet but higher potential given low share price and refinery capacity)

Yes, trade Puncak assuming as if there's no hard asset backing it and less than 40% of it's cash in hand... and, yes, why not at 0.80, a joking 30% to ridicule our security governing authorities...

ganasai, sold most of magni-tech already lah! and its in the process of selling bjauto and bjfood... what's so funny though, bjcorp had mentioned about paring down bjfood for a while but manage to sell more bjauto than bjfood, wonder why?!?

now i know why was CY purchased yesterday... Sigh!

ks55, agree, I didn't buy Puncak after I have received my special dividend initially. I have spent them on Petron (switch half to Shell and turned out to be another disaster, but return is satisfactory overall at more than 10%, not bad given less than 2 months' investment) and BJCorp instead. I have only switched back to Puncak after seeing Puncak trading at 1.14 and 1.03 respectively, believing that my valuation on Puncak's cash in hand is correct. Guess my quantitative valuation is right, except that market doesn't respond to what I believe in, cash in hand is heavily underappreciated, trading at less than 40% of cash value, worrying that there's further dilution of cash due to failed oil and gas subsidiary. That prompted me to write that all the losses in Puncak thus far in the Q4 is a kitchen sinking effort to clean the balance sheet. While its oil and gas operation is difficult, it didn't cause a huge outflow of cash.

I have always believed that market is imperfect. And its absurd trying to sell now given its undervaluation. Frankly, I don't mind waiting, just enjoy expressing my view and share my analysis here while listening to different voices (which is why I said I envy hng33, but having difficulty copycatting)

BJCorp going to be cash rich soon?!? Just sold shares in listed company on Feb 26 for a total of 151 millions - 155 millions

Berjaya Sports Toto
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5018049

Disposed 26 Feb 2016 10,000,000 3.150
That's 31.5 millions cash

Berjaya Auto
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5017873

Disposed 26 Feb 2016 56,000,000
Disposed 26 Feb 2016 553,400
Price range 2.10 - 2.16, that's 118 millions - 122 millions

Berjaya Food
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5017745

Disposed 26 Feb 2016 1,200,000
Price range 2.05, that's 2.46 millions

hng33, I wish I have your courage and decisiveness, unfortunately, I don't. Otherwise, would have followed your trading approach long ago. Sigh!

Ong Lie Chin, unfortunately, if I am the one raising concern, whether its Bursa, SC, or MSWG, nothing much will be done. Only when there's sufficient number of shareholders raising concern will there be action taken.

Eddysurge, quite frankly, in my opinion, BJCorp's troubles beginning a few years ago has everything to do with (1) failed property development project in China (think they have dumped more than 1 billion in it) (2) stranded property development project in South Korea (wonder how much had been spent? Didn't find out on this, given that its already a court case and it has a government unit as shareholder) (3) Having purchase Cosway at to high a price and the current business model of Cosway does not support the purchase price then (can't find out much, only a guess) (4) slow property development project of Menara Bangkok Bank/Ritz-Carlton Residence (think the cost is at least 1.5 billions, given the gross development value exceeds 2 billions and luckily shall be completed by mid of this year) (5) BJToto business has been heavily impacted by black market for the past few years (wonder why hasn't the police done anything?!?)

Hopefully China's property project sale can move on smoothly and be completed within these few months. And surely, its hopeful that the court case of South Korea property project will be addressed soon. Meanwhile, based on what I have checked, Menara Bangkok Bank/Ritz-Carlton Residence shall be completed mid of this year and should further free up BJCorp's capital. Its hard to say about Cosway and BJToto's business in Malaysia. But, with a successful Vietnam Toto business, that should help BJCorp earning stream tremendously and help to propel BJCorp share price forward.

Frankly, didn't expect much, just 1.00 within a year to two after Vietnam Toto business is up and running. Between now and before Vietnam Toto business up and running, I have no idea. But at current share price, guess its not risky to buy and hold.

smartly, yes, with the most recent purchase, I have managed to lower my cost to 1.75 per share instead of 1.80. If Puncak shall drop to the crazy 0.80 level as some suggested, I will have to buy some more then.

In the meanwhile, I have sent an enquiry to MSWG with the following content:

Puncak Niaga Holdings Berhad

After the most recent quarter report announced on Feb 25, the share price dropped significantly at 5.5% to 1.03.

But is the losses of 99 millions alarming? A breakdown of the major losses would show that the impact on its cash in hand is NOT. How so? Simple, impairment on asset (63.562 millions), concession asset (12 millions) and goodwill (25.24 millions) amounts to 100.802 millions already! (please refer to page 9 of the quarter report for further details)

Has Rozali, the majority shareholder of Puncak Niaga, been responsible with the company's business operation. I suppose yes and no. Yes, given that he has taken the opportunity to make impairment on oil & gas as well as its water concession asset without jeopardizing the cash built up through the water asset disposal besides buying back convertible SUKUK. No, shall be explained below.

But, has Rozali cared about small investors like US? A 100% NO! He had not even taken the opportunity of low share price to initiate share buy back, a prudent business operation that could enhance shareholders' value. Even assuming buying back approximately 52 millions shares (to reduce eventual issued shares to 400 millions after warrants converted) at 1.40 on average, it will cost only 72.8 millions, but NET cash per share will rise appreciably to 2.90 from current 2.73. This has not even taken into account the other asset per share that will see its value enhanced automatically due to share buy back exercise of almost 0.12 per share. In fact, net asset per share of 3.75 should rise to approximately 4.00. And, what's 72.8 millions, it's not even 6% of the CASH Puncak is currently holding! More importantly, the small money spent can enhance greatly shareholders' confidence on the company.

What's so funny? I have yet to see MSWG raise any concern, and LTH being the second largest shareholder of Puncak is one of the four founding organizations of MSWG. What's even funnier? MSWG is SO FREE to question Shell's disposal of its own shares in Shell Refinery with a shareholder equity of 677 millions but too BUSY to check on Puncak with a shareholder equity of 1.67 billions. In a way, MSWG cares more about Shell's minority shareholders in UK than minority shareholders of Puncak in Malaysia.

Q4 financial report has posted a loss of 99.725 millions. Is this SERIOUS?!?

A breakdown of the major losses would show that the impact on its cash in hand is NOT. How so? Simple, impairment on asset (63.562 millions), concession asset (12 millions) and goodwill (25.24 millions) amounts to 100.802 millions already! (please refer to page 9 of quarter report for further details)

Actually, comparing Q3 and Q4 financial report shows that the cash in hand has barely changed at 1.3 billions before deducting the 71.182 millions long/short term debt (assuming special dividend are paid and convertible sukuk is bought back at Q3.) With a maximum issued shares of 452 millions after treasury shares are excluded, a NET cash of 2.73 per share is currently traded at 1.03.

Has Rozali been responsible with the company's business operation. I suppose yes and no. Yes, given that he has taken the opportunity to make impairment on oil & gas as well as its water concession asset without jeopardizing the cash built up through the water asset disposal besides buying back convertible SUKUK. No, shall be explained below.

But, has Rozali cared about small investors like US? A 100% NO! He had not even taken the opportunity of low share price to initiate share buy back, a prudent business operation that could enhance shareholders' value. Even assuming buying back approximately 52 millions shares (to reduce eventual issued shares to 400 millions after warrants converted) at 1.40 on average, it will cost only 72.8 millions, but NET cash per share will rise appreciably to 2.90 from current 2.73. This has not even taken into account the other asset per share that will see its value enhanced automatically due to share buy back exercise of almost 0.12 per share. In fact, net asset per share of 3.75 should rise to approximately 4.00. And, what's 72.8 millions, it's not even 6% of the CASH Puncak is currently holding! More importantly, the small money spent can enhance greatly shareholders' confidence on the company.

What's so funny? I have yet to see MSWG (minority shareholder watchdog group) said a word, and LTH being the second largest shareholder of Puncak is one of the four founding organizations of MSWG. What's even funnier? MSWG is SO FREE to question Shell's disposal of its own shares in Shell Refinery with a shareholder equity of 677 millions but too BUSY to check on Puncak with a shareholder equity of 1.67 billions. In a way, MSWG cares more about Shell's minority shareholders in UK than minority shareholders of Puncak in Malaysia.

More disposal by BJCorp, this time BJAuto:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5012333

Disposed 23 Feb 2016 5,000,000

babu, I am not offended by you, but Rozali. At 1.03, its 63% discount to its cash in hand, a ridiculous level, not to mention there are at least another 400+ millions worth of lands and buildings backing its asset. Meanwhile, analyst from CIMB has even offered bogus analysis (see my earlier post) without any party raising concern. Given scenario, so long Rozali didn't call for share buy back or offer shareholders future roadmap on utilizing the cash, it would be hard not for anyone to 'generate' conspiracy theories.

Muttoncurry, given huge impairment made in Q4,2015 and shrinking oil & gas balance sheet to less than 200 millions, guess there won't be much to write down, probably less than 50 millions. Furthermore, should there be operating losses, Puncak's cash per share should remain as is.

babu, Rozali sold his warrants right before the deadline for conversion... we are not the worms living in his brain, there is no way to tell what he think. But, given share price traded at SHARP discount to cash in hand, there is nothing great to talk about his INTEGRITY already!

Rozali may not want a low price to take Puncak private, there could be other reasons, but why should we care?!? So long share price is a DEEP discount to cash in hand and yet he is not responding as the largest shareholder, there are more than enough reason to doubt his personality and integrity!!!

Please lah, even though I no longer hold Petron, I also realize that Petron's drop in sales are due to (1) lower crude oil price and (2) mandatory shut down! Otherwise, the result is commendable. In addition, Petron result also shows that refinery + gas stations offer a more stable operation by comparing Shell Refinery's 3rd quarter 2015 report with Petron's 4th quarter 2015 report.

We as investors should really do some basic studies before commenting and not spread nonsense news!

hng33, you are very GENG!!! Respect

my valuation on Puncak is right, but my timing is ABSOLUTELY wrong...

Lew Peik Yin, an average of 1.80, with the most recent purchase at 1.14, sigh! Wonder if I should add some more at 1.03, have to sell other shares or pump in money already though, another huge SIGH!

fzank, haha, well said. Hope this Titanic not the real Titanic and not sink. It is a pity to be small shareholder when the major shareholder care less about protecting its share price...

Lew Peik Yin, could be a few months before seeing the light, to be frank. Somehow, Puncak is being abused. Though, with so much cash in hand at 2.73 per share, futures should be bright (I am definitely biased, given my investment in Puncak)

this is like the early 2000, where refinery profits are good while crude oil producers are suffering. And that's why Warrent Buffet keeps buying refiners shares

fainted, what to expect? Petron already mentioned 40 days break for mandatory maintenance?!? Plus, excellent balance sheet with 0.20 dividend? Luckily I sold mine earlier to cover my loss in Shell...

hng33, don't think Puncak share price has anything to do with its fundamental.

Real big joke, CIMB on its report on Puncak provides a table on page 3:

Business Valuation Net profit Value
component Basis (FY17)
Construction 15XPE 3.4 millions 50.9m
cash from
warrant 6.6m
Cash (4Q15) 1,104m
Borrowing(4Q15) (71m)
Total SOP 1,172m
FD shares 532.5m
SOP/share 2.20

Problems are
(1) Cash(4Q15) is not 1,104m BUT 1,300.695m (922.146m+378.549m)
(2) FD shares is ONLY 452.515m (449.284 outstanding shares+5.269 warrants-2.038 treasury shares)

Based on that, SOP/share should then be 2.86, what a HUGE difference. My goodness!

more like still on an uptrend to me...

if I were not wrong, when Shell tried to conclude price with the China party, Shell has assumed there is still upside potential in crude oil price. Thus, a lower price for refinery made sense then, given that a high crude oil price hurt refinery margin. Guess Shell didn't expect a huge oversupply of crude oil for such a long period of time (now its expected to last until next year, meaning another 2 good years for Shell Refinery.)

What's puzzling though is why EPF keeps selling Shell Refinery shares in open market?!?

If you read its report on continuing operations, the 12 months' losses look HUGE at 152.43 millions. But, is it? Non-cash items is already 122.016 millions (of which impairment is ALREADY 100.802 millions and amortization/depreciation 21.214 millions.) Leaving the next most expensive item of finance cost at 15.942 millions. With the borrowing shrinking to 71.182 millions, and net cash of 1,229.513 millions, this should no longer a threat. I guess, going forward, the 2.73 per share CASH should be there until new businesses are identified. How much I wish Rozali would distribute at least 0.10 per share dividend annually until new businesses are identified.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5011205

posting a quarterly and annual profit of 96.5 millions (0.3217/share) and 351.8 millions (1.1726/share). Given crude oil price were expected to stay low, Shell business should be good going forward for coming 2 years!

In reality, I have yet to see any analyst suggesting PUNCAK has a cash in hand of over 1.2 billions that's NOT shrinking despite losses. Given 'unknown' pessimistic view on Puncak, I don't rule out further pressure on Puncak's share price. But I am merely pointing out UNFAIR and UNREASONABLE market response, or is it really market response?

The losses are primary due to impairment in oil & gas (currently only asset of 189.707 millions and liability of 177.668 millions) and the repurchase of SUKUK (spending 200 millions to buy 161.5 millions SUKUK is worthwhile given the SUKUK can be converted into shares at 2.00/share - its not highlighted, but I think its crucial.)

More importantly, while reporting a huge LOSS, its operating cash flow is actually POSITIVE at 11.119 millions. This means PUNCAK current business, while LOST to depreciation and amortization, is actually earning CASH. This is the concern I early have (operating cash flow of the 3rd quarter had actually included the discontinued businesses) and putting a 2.70 +/- 0.10 CASH.

And, with net cash of 1,229.513 millions, PUNCAK is traded at less than 500 millions?!? LOL!!!

Q4 financial report is out:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5011153

On its balance sheet, Puncak has
(1) Short-term investment of 922.146 millions
(2) Cash and bank balances of 347.549 millions
totaling 1300.695 millions

While, its debts include
(1) Long term borrowing of 31.979 millions
(2) Short term borrowing of 39.203 millions
totaling 71.182 millions

Thus, net cash is 1,229.513 millions. With an issued shares of 449.284 millions, per share CASH is 2.73, proving that I am RIGHT!!!

All I can say is a blatant abuse of market and a bunch of overpaid ineffective governing body

If to MGO at net cash, it would be at least 2.50. Let me go through FACBIND

rMoi, this is absurd. Based on the 3rd quarter 2015 report, Puncak has non-current asset of 575.491 millions (or 530.139 millions after goodwill and deferred tax assets are excluded). Excluding asset and liability held for sale which should bring 1,552 millions CASH, Puncak has a current asset of 530.331 millions, of which 403.547 millions is CASH or short-term investments, and a total liability of 403.824 millions, i.e., Puncak has more in current asset than total liability before water asset disposal. That has yet to include the CASH from asset disposal (actually, there is, 1 million deposit in the deal)!

What's more, Puncak's oil & gas exposure is ONLY an asset of 258.820 millions and liability of 214.159 millions! How's it possible that this exposure could threaten Puncak's balance sheet in a big way, as it would on other oil & gas players?!?

It's absurd for Puncak to trade below half of its cash in hand currently. And, its funny that there's still someone selling them on a gradual basis. For every seller, there must be a willing buyer, wonder who's those buyers?!? Of course, I am only a small shareholder and can't keep on buying or holding enough shares to prevent Rozali from lousy acquisition or share price from falling. I can only hope Bursa or SC to achieve that. Sigh!

rMoi, ?!? You have doubts over Puncak in net cash position?

BJCorp has begun its route to pare down investment in BJFood

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5008045

Type of transaction Date of change No of securities

Disposed 18 Feb 2016 4,000,000

arr... forgot to add, the deal between Shell and the Chinese co. should have little impact on share price had EPF chosen not to keep on selling, even after the sharp correction. Have to doubt the functionality of MSWG...

Prince, even though bjcorp has 7 billions debt based on recent quarter report, bjcorp also has 2 billions of cash. In addition, it's in the process of (1) disposing China property project that will reduce debt by over 1 billion (2) completing two big property projects by July, Ritz-Carlton in KL and Four Season (?) in Japan, that will reduce debt by over 2 billions (hopes I am right on this, little info is available). Thus, bjcorp debt level is not so much a problem and is actually manageable.

Puncak's share price is a real big joke and a slap on SC, Bursa Malaysia and MSWG. We have anal-ysts suggesting a selling price per share of 2.90 pre-special dividend, yet none said a word about net cash post sukuk bought back. CIMB's anal-yst even said the cash is only 1.80 post special dividend, and I have to wonder why?!? Emailing him, and the response I got is 'depending on assumptions'?!? MSWG is complaining about Shell Refinery being sold too cheaply when its NTA is about 1.90 and selling price is 1.80. Yet, MSWG had not said a word when Puncak has net cash of over 2.50 while share price is below 1.20, a far cry of less than 50%, not to mention that Puncak is owning valuable land suitable for property development. It's as if abuse by foreigners, 100% NO; any abuse by Malaysian company, 100% welcomed?!? In fact, recent hiring advertisement in the Star paper seems to suggest that Puncak is going to develop the Ijok land too.

Anyway, things will be clearer once the most recent quarter report is announced, hopefully within this week.

crossing 0.44 soon?

hng33, I wish I can swap too, but my holding cost is too high @ 1.80 (too painful to even think about it), and that's after purchasing additional shares @ 1.14 after selling my Petron (huge mistake!)...

national interest? Real big joke. Petron is in the hand of Phillipines lah... They are most probably l acted upon request of some losing and unhappy Malay investors (I am among those making losses in Shell too, but I don't our government care). And MSWG, even bigger joke. So many shares traded WAY below NTA (Puncak is traded at less than 50% of its cash in hand after deducting all debt,) yet MSWG has not said a word, wonder why?

hng33, I looked through FORMOSA, not much discount to its NTA or net cash, and it has mentioned about land acquisition already. Is the business good?

hng33,

thanks, will go through the company. Formosa got so many exercises....

BenBlurBlur & Parkson,

To Rozali, cash in hand is better than shares in hand, I guess. The recent dismay share performance could also be caused by Rozali and his associates (of course, that would be conspiracy hypothesis that not many can find out...) My guesstimate of Puncak cash is based on the 2015 3rd quarter report, it hasn't included any potential losses in Puncak's business during the 4th quarter, which is why I used +/- 0.10, assuming the 0.10 per share to be the unknown factor, given that losses may not result in lower cash in hand, or vice versa.

stkoay, I am not humble, I am just being frank about my decision. Now I can only hope Rozali will announce some good news soon.