Shell share price rises suddenly, wonder if quarter report is to be out soon and doing well?!?

Parkson, err... my cost is close to what you said though. It was 2.90 before special dividend, and has added some position last week at 1.14, so my cost now is 1.80 post special dividend. Hopefully, Puncak share price will rise to above 2.20 soon, sigh!

cricketlast, for 9M FY2015, Shell is generating operating cash flow of 1.0208 billions. Even before changes in working capital, its 526.7 millions.

Puncak's subsidiary GOM Resources to cease operations by end of this month: should be good news, right?

benblurblur, my apology, didn't really spend time to learn Puncak's o&g business, its only 200+ million business to Puncak's over 1 billion cash. And, I have always assumed Puncak's landbank in Kuala Selangor, which is worth over 200+ million too, is more than enough to compensate for any potential losses in Puncak long ago.

err, BJCorp has managed to rise more than RM 1.00 per share within a year, so...

Damn, EPF keeps on selling last Wednesday:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4997257

Details of changes

Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction Description of Others Date of change
No of securities

Price Transacted (RM)

Disposed 03 Feb 2016
1,000,000




Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Disposal of shares managed by CITIGROUP NOMINEES (TEMPATAN) SDN BHD
Nature of interest Direct Interest
Direct (units) 40,734,047
Direct (%) 13.578
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
Total no of securities after change 40,734,047
Date of notice 04 Feb 2016

benblurblur, I assume you were referring to Puncak's o&g. Frankly, Puncak's o&g division has performed poorly for a while, not just recently. Given crude oil price, little faith Puncak can perform and I expect it to keep on being so. You may refer to Puncak's quarter report and read its sale & profit contributions by its subdivision.

I am

roger, yes, indeed, I lost a lot in Puncak, its actually what dragged down my earnings for the past 2 years (hopefully not to extend to this year too, sigh!). What's worst, can't do much even knowing that Puncak has so much cash but share price not performing...

ganasai, agree, that's why I was hoping for at least 0.80 when Vietnam toto business is up and running then. Menara Bangkok Bank and Japan's property development should be completed around June too...

supermix, share price should price in future earnings. since the announcement BJCorp got the Vietnam toto license, BJCorp share price has barely budged, from less than 0.35 to current 0.39. I guess there could be 2 reasons (1) uncertainties about its earning potential (reported in Edge citing tax, etc.) - that could only be addressed once the toto business is up and running in Vietnam and reflect your idea of taking a few years to see the potential (2) political uncertainty of late in Vietnam (change of leadership) that may cause the share price not to reflect the licensing - that could only be addressed with Vietnam making announcement (which I doubt) or Toto up and running in June. This is why I said I was hoping to see at least 0.80 by June.

Guess we will have to wait until Vietnam Toto is up and running before we can really see a rallying Bjcorp, hopefully around June to at least 0.80...

Felt so bad for having to dispose my petron shares to protect my earnings in refinery stocks (thanks to tumbling shell share price)...

Guess shell share price will stay around this region until the Chinese company fails to privatize Shell. It's a terrible timing for us Shell small shareholders... Sigh!

Hopefully, after quarter report showing net cash of 2.70 +/- 0.10 coupling with not so negative operating cash flow (quarterly losses in o&g is mitigated fully with earnings from other operating divisions and interests received from 1+ billion cash) will bring Puncak back to 1.80 - 2.20 range.

And I also believe that EPF could have sold its holding in Shell over the past 1 year due to its knowledge of the deal, which I believe is unethical and could have broken the law.

My guess, Shell Malaysia probably had signed a deal to dispose early last year, thus the low valuation of 1.80 per share. Yet, they can't speak in public that they had disposed their shares too early at too low a price.

quite frankly, if EPF is selling because it knows about the selling price and intention, it is actually trading on material nonpublic information, and is considered unethical!

really? I added some today at 0.39 thought selling is due to traders not wanting to hold for CNY...

hopefully we will see 1.00 before end of this year...

we should know in a few weeks if I were right that Puncak has 2.70 +/- 0.10 cash per share...

yes, same feeling, waiting for 1.80, otherwise won't add anymore new position, I have a 5.20 cost per share. Think have to buy double to lower my cost to below 3. Sigh!

Kakashi, we will most likely have to hold longer... my cost is 5.20

Jedi, Desa, you guys don't have to create fear here lah! Despite the low valuation, there's no doubt that refinery is currently at the right spot of business cycle. At a much higher refinery margin, so long crude oil price remains low without steep downturn or spike up, Shell is surely on the path of generating huge operating cash flow.

if developed countries are examples, we could have easily voted out the deal between Shell Malaysia and the China company citing (1) unfair valuation (2) uncertainty of how the deal could have benefited Shell Refinery (3) many other reasons that lawyers can come up with until a fair offer is given to other shareholders

ks55, from my understanding, day traders don't keep stock, they buy and sell the same day or the latest next day. They pay very little, if any at all, commission and stamp duty. hng33 is more like a momentum trader, capturing the upturn in share price and running away when trend is not according to his view. Don't think its an easy skill, enviable, but not suitable for most investors, particularly those taking long time to think and process, like me.

so long crude oil price remains low or on a slow rise up to 50-60 range (and I believe that this should be the scenario until end of 2017), the refinery business should actually be good. Shell should slowly build up its balance sheet to become cash rich, given that the first 3 quarters alone brought in over 1 billion cash.

ik059, I also own Shell and believe in the long term value of it. But there's no harm listening to what others have to say. I am actually hoping to learn more to learn when's the best time to buy some to pare down my cost should Shell share price drops...

pang72, you mean share price dropped to its offered price in ESSO case?

Based on Q3 report, Shell has 1,500 millions debt, but cash and derivative financial asset of 770 millions in addition to inventory of 970 millions. On top of that, Shell is generating 1,020 millions operating cash flow for the 3 quarters of 2015. So, debt is not so much a problem... Puzzling!!!

Based on the most recent quarter report, Shell Refinery has net asset per share of 1.93, wonder why's it sold at RM 1.78 only?!?

66.3 millions USD for 51% stake?!? That's only 1.78 per share...

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4989897

Puncak wishes to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Puncak Niaga Construction Sdn Bhd (“PNCSB”) had recently secured the tender called by Jabatan Bekalan Air, Kementerian Tenaga, Teknologi Hijau dan Air (KeTTHA) for the operation and maintenance of a water treatment plant in Beaufort, Sabah (“Project”) as follows:-

Name of Project : Kerja-Kerja Operasi dan Penyelenggaraan Secara Komprehensif Loji Rawatan Air di Kampung Lawa Gadong, Beaufort, Sabah

Employer : Jabatan Bekalan Air, Kementerian Tenaga, Teknologi Hijau dan Air (KeTTHA)

Duration : Three (3) years from 1 February 2016 to 31 January 2019

Scope of works : To operate and maintain the water treatment facilities with a total design capacity of 76 MLD at Kampung Lawa Gadong, Beaufort, for bulk water supply to Labuan.

Other terms : As privately agreed with the Employer.

The Contract Document for the Project will be signed between the Parties in due course.

This announcement is dated 29 January 2016.

hng33, you are geng geng geng! Congratulations!

speakup, unless Puncak never report or submit quarter report/annual report. Otherwise, by the latest end of Feb, shareholders who read report will realize for sure if Puncak is holding at least 2.70 +/- 0.10 per share. Once people know it, do you think its possible to offer shareholders takeover at 1.32-1.43?!? I can't rule out the possibility of acquiring garbage companies, but would have difficulties believing it, unless the garbage companies are owned by Rozali himself. But then, Rozali is not allowed to vote for the acquisition. Headache!

Think has to do with a change in government in Vietnam...

TH Heavy market cap only RM 162.6 millions... and its share price is not rising as if there is a takeover offer

hng33, do you think Rozali dare to acquire shitty businesses for Puncak? While have some faith in the balance sheet, have no idea what kind of man Rozali is right now. Sigh!

until quarter report is out outlining the total cash in hand and after Rozali announces how he would spend the billion, its hard for us to reap any benefit from selling the water business. It has instead dragged us into shit, sigh!

roger, even if what you said is true, still not justifying the price drop?!?

titus, if rozali won't even buy back shares, do you think he would consider declaring another meaningful dividends?

Shell refinery is profitable, and current crude oil market is favorable to refinery. There is nothing wrong to buy refinery given that 51% cost less than 1 billion. Or, at least spend 200 millions for share buyback. Current Puncak's market cap is not even 500 millions, yet Rozali did or say nothing, only to appoint his son to be the director!

And, to speak of fire sale, Puncak is on fire sale now, yet we have to see any Rozali action!

suggest Puncak buying Shell Malaysia's 51% holding in Shell Refinery, that should be $$$. Shell Refinery has only 300 million shares trading at about 5. Assuming a 6 per share offer, that's only 900 million cash, much less that what Puncak holds.

Err... maybe LTH negotiates with Rozali, asking him to use 200 millions for share buyback? Current Puncak market cap is not even worth 500 millions

Wordless with this co... Wonder if SC would care to take a detail look into the sellers and buyers

smallvestor, quite frankly, I never like VT too cause he's never known to be kind to shareholders. I am keen only with BJCorp for a maximum of a year. BJCorp has not been good luck in business for the past few years, issues ranging from dropping sales in BJToto and Cosway, hanging property projects in China, South Korea, and Menara Bangkok Bank/Ritz-Carton Residences KL, and holding too much non-income generating assets. Though, since 1 year ago, BJCorp has been able to slowly address these issues. From what I have noticed (1) BJCorp pared down its position in BJAuto, Magni-Tech, and some other non-listed companies to raise cash (well, it did buy into other companies, but in general, seems to sell more than buying) (2) BJCorp has just disposed its plantation land at a good price, raising more than 650 millions (3) Menara Bangkok Bank/Ritz-Carlton finally pulls through and to be completed soon (hopefully before June 2016) (4) South Korea property project is now in court case, with a resolution expected soon (5) Vietnam Toto business seems to be on track (with much delays.)

I guess I am just betting on BJCorp delivering good news going forward that would push its share price higher. Guess won't be making much losses given that BJCorp is already so low, at 0.365 (well, I bought at 0.385, and an entry earlier at 0.49.)

An additional reason would be, I have preferred finding companies of relatively large equities/market cap with bad business investment in the past few years while its future prospects seem to be better. Done this approach with success with TA Enterprise, Insas, Bernas, UEMWorld (changed name already), and Magnum but failed terribly with Puncak.

cyphua, it seems like VT is more interested at issuing ICULS and warrants to himself... Plus, at this desperate share price, doubt there will be any taker, at least I won't, haha... rather buy from market at 0.365

cyphua, why worried about raising fund to cover the project cost of Vietnam lottery? It's estimated to be about 920 million ringgit over 18 years. Even to assume 50% during the first 2 years of business, that's only 460 millions, much less than the 2 billion cash that BJCorp is holding now.

On top of that, as of Oct 30, 2015, BJCorp has a cash & equivalent of 2 billion while owing 7.6 billions. Since the latest quarter report being announced, BJCorp has raised 93 millions through disposal of Magni-Tech, 76 millions (not sure how much is received right now) through disposal of Fosan Berjaya Environmental Engineering while have a need to spend 68 millions to buy BJLand (the rest are issued with ICULS and warrants and cash outlay is insignificant). So, I guess, BJCorp should be pretty safe, assuming that it's able to free up more cash from the completion of Ritz-Carlton Residences KL and Japan's property project.

LTH bought at above 3 before special dividend when it's forced to announce position after holding more than 5%...it would be big blow to LTH if it's LTH selling. Anyhow, Puncak board should announce steps to buy back 200 millions worth of shares so long price is below 2.50

frankly, unless the selling price of Shell Refinery is announced or 'leaked', there's not much hope Shell share price can perform in near future, even if there's a record profit announced later next month... Guess just have to wait until end of year, hoping that crude oil price will stay between 32 and 45 throughout the end of this year with a gradual uptrend. That should push Shell's net worth and profitability.