hng33, don't think Puncak share price has anything to do with its fundamental.

Real big joke, CIMB on its report on Puncak provides a table on page 3:

Business Valuation Net profit Value
component Basis (FY17)
Construction 15XPE 3.4 millions 50.9m
cash from
warrant 6.6m
Cash (4Q15) 1,104m
Borrowing(4Q15) (71m)
Total SOP 1,172m
FD shares 532.5m
SOP/share 2.20

Problems are
(1) Cash(4Q15) is not 1,104m BUT 1,300.695m (922.146m+378.549m)
(2) FD shares is ONLY 452.515m (449.284 outstanding shares+5.269 warrants-2.038 treasury shares)

Based on that, SOP/share should then be 2.86, what a HUGE difference. My goodness!

more like still on an uptrend to me...

if I were not wrong, when Shell tried to conclude price with the China party, Shell has assumed there is still upside potential in crude oil price. Thus, a lower price for refinery made sense then, given that a high crude oil price hurt refinery margin. Guess Shell didn't expect a huge oversupply of crude oil for such a long period of time (now its expected to last until next year, meaning another 2 good years for Shell Refinery.)

What's puzzling though is why EPF keeps selling Shell Refinery shares in open market?!?

If you read its report on continuing operations, the 12 months' losses look HUGE at 152.43 millions. But, is it? Non-cash items is already 122.016 millions (of which impairment is ALREADY 100.802 millions and amortization/depreciation 21.214 millions.) Leaving the next most expensive item of finance cost at 15.942 millions. With the borrowing shrinking to 71.182 millions, and net cash of 1,229.513 millions, this should no longer a threat. I guess, going forward, the 2.73 per share CASH should be there until new businesses are identified. How much I wish Rozali would distribute at least 0.10 per share dividend annually until new businesses are identified.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5011205

posting a quarterly and annual profit of 96.5 millions (0.3217/share) and 351.8 millions (1.1726/share). Given crude oil price were expected to stay low, Shell business should be good going forward for coming 2 years!

In reality, I have yet to see any analyst suggesting PUNCAK has a cash in hand of over 1.2 billions that's NOT shrinking despite losses. Given 'unknown' pessimistic view on Puncak, I don't rule out further pressure on Puncak's share price. But I am merely pointing out UNFAIR and UNREASONABLE market response, or is it really market response?

The losses are primary due to impairment in oil & gas (currently only asset of 189.707 millions and liability of 177.668 millions) and the repurchase of SUKUK (spending 200 millions to buy 161.5 millions SUKUK is worthwhile given the SUKUK can be converted into shares at 2.00/share - its not highlighted, but I think its crucial.)

More importantly, while reporting a huge LOSS, its operating cash flow is actually POSITIVE at 11.119 millions. This means PUNCAK current business, while LOST to depreciation and amortization, is actually earning CASH. This is the concern I early have (operating cash flow of the 3rd quarter had actually included the discontinued businesses) and putting a 2.70 +/- 0.10 CASH.

And, with net cash of 1,229.513 millions, PUNCAK is traded at less than 500 millions?!? LOL!!!

Q4 financial report is out:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5011153

On its balance sheet, Puncak has
(1) Short-term investment of 922.146 millions
(2) Cash and bank balances of 347.549 millions
totaling 1300.695 millions

While, its debts include
(1) Long term borrowing of 31.979 millions
(2) Short term borrowing of 39.203 millions
totaling 71.182 millions

Thus, net cash is 1,229.513 millions. With an issued shares of 449.284 millions, per share CASH is 2.73, proving that I am RIGHT!!!

All I can say is a blatant abuse of market and a bunch of overpaid ineffective governing body

If to MGO at net cash, it would be at least 2.50. Let me go through FACBIND

rMoi, this is absurd. Based on the 3rd quarter 2015 report, Puncak has non-current asset of 575.491 millions (or 530.139 millions after goodwill and deferred tax assets are excluded). Excluding asset and liability held for sale which should bring 1,552 millions CASH, Puncak has a current asset of 530.331 millions, of which 403.547 millions is CASH or short-term investments, and a total liability of 403.824 millions, i.e., Puncak has more in current asset than total liability before water asset disposal. That has yet to include the CASH from asset disposal (actually, there is, 1 million deposit in the deal)!

What's more, Puncak's oil & gas exposure is ONLY an asset of 258.820 millions and liability of 214.159 millions! How's it possible that this exposure could threaten Puncak's balance sheet in a big way, as it would on other oil & gas players?!?

It's absurd for Puncak to trade below half of its cash in hand currently. And, its funny that there's still someone selling them on a gradual basis. For every seller, there must be a willing buyer, wonder who's those buyers?!? Of course, I am only a small shareholder and can't keep on buying or holding enough shares to prevent Rozali from lousy acquisition or share price from falling. I can only hope Bursa or SC to achieve that. Sigh!

rMoi, ?!? You have doubts over Puncak in net cash position?

BJCorp has begun its route to pare down investment in BJFood

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5008045

Type of transaction Date of change No of securities

Disposed 18 Feb 2016 4,000,000

arr... forgot to add, the deal between Shell and the Chinese co. should have little impact on share price had EPF chosen not to keep on selling, even after the sharp correction. Have to doubt the functionality of MSWG...

Prince, even though bjcorp has 7 billions debt based on recent quarter report, bjcorp also has 2 billions of cash. In addition, it's in the process of (1) disposing China property project that will reduce debt by over 1 billion (2) completing two big property projects by July, Ritz-Carlton in KL and Four Season (?) in Japan, that will reduce debt by over 2 billions (hopes I am right on this, little info is available). Thus, bjcorp debt level is not so much a problem and is actually manageable.

Puncak's share price is a real big joke and a slap on SC, Bursa Malaysia and MSWG. We have anal-ysts suggesting a selling price per share of 2.90 pre-special dividend, yet none said a word about net cash post sukuk bought back. CIMB's anal-yst even said the cash is only 1.80 post special dividend, and I have to wonder why?!? Emailing him, and the response I got is 'depending on assumptions'?!? MSWG is complaining about Shell Refinery being sold too cheaply when its NTA is about 1.90 and selling price is 1.80. Yet, MSWG had not said a word when Puncak has net cash of over 2.50 while share price is below 1.20, a far cry of less than 50%, not to mention that Puncak is owning valuable land suitable for property development. It's as if abuse by foreigners, 100% NO; any abuse by Malaysian company, 100% welcomed?!? In fact, recent hiring advertisement in the Star paper seems to suggest that Puncak is going to develop the Ijok land too.

Anyway, things will be clearer once the most recent quarter report is announced, hopefully within this week.

crossing 0.44 soon?

hng33, I wish I can swap too, but my holding cost is too high @ 1.80 (too painful to even think about it), and that's after purchasing additional shares @ 1.14 after selling my Petron (huge mistake!)...

national interest? Real big joke. Petron is in the hand of Phillipines lah... They are most probably l acted upon request of some losing and unhappy Malay investors (I am among those making losses in Shell too, but I don't our government care). And MSWG, even bigger joke. So many shares traded WAY below NTA (Puncak is traded at less than 50% of its cash in hand after deducting all debt,) yet MSWG has not said a word, wonder why?

hng33, I looked through FORMOSA, not much discount to its NTA or net cash, and it has mentioned about land acquisition already. Is the business good?

hng33,

thanks, will go through the company. Formosa got so many exercises....

BenBlurBlur & Parkson,

To Rozali, cash in hand is better than shares in hand, I guess. The recent dismay share performance could also be caused by Rozali and his associates (of course, that would be conspiracy hypothesis that not many can find out...) My guesstimate of Puncak cash is based on the 2015 3rd quarter report, it hasn't included any potential losses in Puncak's business during the 4th quarter, which is why I used +/- 0.10, assuming the 0.10 per share to be the unknown factor, given that losses may not result in lower cash in hand, or vice versa.

stkoay, I am not humble, I am just being frank about my decision. Now I can only hope Rozali will announce some good news soon.

Shell share price rises suddenly, wonder if quarter report is to be out soon and doing well?!?

Parkson, err... my cost is close to what you said though. It was 2.90 before special dividend, and has added some position last week at 1.14, so my cost now is 1.80 post special dividend. Hopefully, Puncak share price will rise to above 2.20 soon, sigh!

cricketlast, for 9M FY2015, Shell is generating operating cash flow of 1.0208 billions. Even before changes in working capital, its 526.7 millions.

Puncak's subsidiary GOM Resources to cease operations by end of this month: should be good news, right?

benblurblur, my apology, didn't really spend time to learn Puncak's o&g business, its only 200+ million business to Puncak's over 1 billion cash. And, I have always assumed Puncak's landbank in Kuala Selangor, which is worth over 200+ million too, is more than enough to compensate for any potential losses in Puncak long ago.

err, BJCorp has managed to rise more than RM 1.00 per share within a year, so...

Damn, EPF keeps on selling last Wednesday:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4997257

Details of changes

Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction Description of Others Date of change
No of securities

Price Transacted (RM)

Disposed 03 Feb 2016
1,000,000




Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Disposal of shares managed by CITIGROUP NOMINEES (TEMPATAN) SDN BHD
Nature of interest Direct Interest
Direct (units) 40,734,047
Direct (%) 13.578
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
Total no of securities after change 40,734,047
Date of notice 04 Feb 2016

benblurblur, I assume you were referring to Puncak's o&g. Frankly, Puncak's o&g division has performed poorly for a while, not just recently. Given crude oil price, little faith Puncak can perform and I expect it to keep on being so. You may refer to Puncak's quarter report and read its sale & profit contributions by its subdivision.

I am

roger, yes, indeed, I lost a lot in Puncak, its actually what dragged down my earnings for the past 2 years (hopefully not to extend to this year too, sigh!). What's worst, can't do much even knowing that Puncak has so much cash but share price not performing...

ganasai, agree, that's why I was hoping for at least 0.80 when Vietnam toto business is up and running then. Menara Bangkok Bank and Japan's property development should be completed around June too...

supermix, share price should price in future earnings. since the announcement BJCorp got the Vietnam toto license, BJCorp share price has barely budged, from less than 0.35 to current 0.39. I guess there could be 2 reasons (1) uncertainties about its earning potential (reported in Edge citing tax, etc.) - that could only be addressed once the toto business is up and running in Vietnam and reflect your idea of taking a few years to see the potential (2) political uncertainty of late in Vietnam (change of leadership) that may cause the share price not to reflect the licensing - that could only be addressed with Vietnam making announcement (which I doubt) or Toto up and running in June. This is why I said I was hoping to see at least 0.80 by June.

Guess we will have to wait until Vietnam Toto is up and running before we can really see a rallying Bjcorp, hopefully around June to at least 0.80...

Felt so bad for having to dispose my petron shares to protect my earnings in refinery stocks (thanks to tumbling shell share price)...

Guess shell share price will stay around this region until the Chinese company fails to privatize Shell. It's a terrible timing for us Shell small shareholders... Sigh!

Hopefully, after quarter report showing net cash of 2.70 +/- 0.10 coupling with not so negative operating cash flow (quarterly losses in o&g is mitigated fully with earnings from other operating divisions and interests received from 1+ billion cash) will bring Puncak back to 1.80 - 2.20 range.

And I also believe that EPF could have sold its holding in Shell over the past 1 year due to its knowledge of the deal, which I believe is unethical and could have broken the law.

My guess, Shell Malaysia probably had signed a deal to dispose early last year, thus the low valuation of 1.80 per share. Yet, they can't speak in public that they had disposed their shares too early at too low a price.

quite frankly, if EPF is selling because it knows about the selling price and intention, it is actually trading on material nonpublic information, and is considered unethical!

really? I added some today at 0.39 thought selling is due to traders not wanting to hold for CNY...

hopefully we will see 1.00 before end of this year...

we should know in a few weeks if I were right that Puncak has 2.70 +/- 0.10 cash per share...

yes, same feeling, waiting for 1.80, otherwise won't add anymore new position, I have a 5.20 cost per share. Think have to buy double to lower my cost to below 3. Sigh!

Kakashi, we will most likely have to hold longer... my cost is 5.20

Jedi, Desa, you guys don't have to create fear here lah! Despite the low valuation, there's no doubt that refinery is currently at the right spot of business cycle. At a much higher refinery margin, so long crude oil price remains low without steep downturn or spike up, Shell is surely on the path of generating huge operating cash flow.

if developed countries are examples, we could have easily voted out the deal between Shell Malaysia and the China company citing (1) unfair valuation (2) uncertainty of how the deal could have benefited Shell Refinery (3) many other reasons that lawyers can come up with until a fair offer is given to other shareholders

ks55, from my understanding, day traders don't keep stock, they buy and sell the same day or the latest next day. They pay very little, if any at all, commission and stamp duty. hng33 is more like a momentum trader, capturing the upturn in share price and running away when trend is not according to his view. Don't think its an easy skill, enviable, but not suitable for most investors, particularly those taking long time to think and process, like me.