don't know, that's why I asked...

Quite frankly, have difficulty understanding why Shell needs to sell its refinery? Currently, refinery is the one making the most, and this golden period has months to go before music stops. Wonder if its Shell Malaysia selling Shell Refinery?!? That would make more sense!

accumulation phase?

quite frankly, could never understand 'anal-yst', while pointing out Shell made a lost in Jul '15 - Sep '15 quarter, can't they point out the reason being Shell stopped its refinery operation for 44 days?!?

If not seeing EPF kacau kacau, would have sold more PETRON to buy SHELL already. Feel so bad seeing this surge while knowing I could have bought more earlier. Sigh!

Am I too greedy to hope for 9 target price?

Good news, at least to me, generating another 93 million of cash!

Ivan, thanks... Sorry to hear about your losses in bjcorp, similar here. Hope price will get better this year once total debt is reduced

attended a Maybank seminar on Saturday, was told target price for Petron is 6.80 and 8.12. Anybody else attended it can verify for me? Thanks...

humbleisland, I also bought at around 50, think average 0.49 2 years back. Then forced to sell at 0.40 to add Puncak last year. I have only bought back after receiving my Puncak special dividend lately. Think and hope BJCorp can be a jackpot play, but have been no luck lately, haha... only consolation is the yearly 0.01 dividend until jackpot hit

爱丽丝, hope I am not misleading you here, cause my investment in Puncak is terrible, and my investment with BJCorp is also not doing well. My only luck recently is only PetronM.

humbleisland, call warrants has nothing to do with BJCorp shareholders or BJCorp itself, it's only a business deal between call warrant holders and call warrant issuers, usually investment banks.

I guess, when issuing call warrants, investment banks will have to buy certain percentage of BJCorp (or any other companies) to protect themselves when BJCorp share rises above their expectation. Close to the end of expiry date, investment banks may to have to sell these shares should share price rises too much, at which these investment banks may incur losses. Guess that's why some opined that BJCorp's price will move up once BJCorp-CY matures. I have no earlier working experience in financial industry and I do not have a good idea of how it works. My sharing here is more from my knowledge through books...

BJCorp has a few core businesses: (1) property development through BJCorp and BJLand (2) Cosway through BJCorp (3) property investments through BJCorp and other subsidiaries/associates (4) number forecasting through BJToto (5) car dealerships and assembly through BJAuto and BJToto (5) franchised shops (6) investments in listed companies. Of these, I would presume property investment and development have the highest percentage in its balance sheet. Though, BJCorp property development in China and Jeju Island through BJLand have been in trouble for a while, which I believe contributed to most of the recent debt increases (non RM-debt has also contributed because depreciated RM) With recent announcement of China property development to be taken over by another Chinese company, maybe future prospect could be brighter. A second issue has been the privatization of Hong Kong Cosway. Think BJCorp has paid too much and recent years have not been good to Cosway's business. Read from recent annual report that Cosway business is gradually improved, hopefully things can be brighter this and next year.

I think BJCorp share price is not performing due to one of the two reasons (1) BJCorp businesses are not so good, from number forecasting to property development (2) VT has yet to need money from us the small shareholders. (1) could see brighter future this year from recent businesses and land disposals, completion of Menara Bangkok Bank, Ritz-Carlton Residences and Japan property development. I hope not to see (2), otherwise I will sell when its goreng up

Ivan, CY is just call warrant number Y, nothing to be concerned. More important thing is the expiry date and valuation details of the warrant. You have to check the bursa for details though...

Err... I bought some at .355, hope it's on it's way to CNY rally

haha... same feeling...

share price rises because Rozali want his son to be director?!?

titus, I actually still in a loss position in Puncak, and also the largest position in my portfolio... can only hope Rozali rewarding me for my persistence :)

bought Shell today after selling my Petron this morning to diversify my risk in refiners... hopefully Shell made 300 millions when quarter result is announced next month :)

well, I sold half my Petron this morning to buy Shell, and loss from the sale, despite a more relaxed feeling after diversifying but still feel the losses... guess humans are greedy!

hng33, you own insas?

insas mostly selling inari lately, not buying lah!

after listening to yuefei01's comment, I sold half of my Petron at 5.72 to buy the same amount of Shell to spread out my risk of refiners...

I bought some at 1.48 after selling some of my Petron, hopefully this is a sign of a rally...

kelvin Chan, is there anywhere to learn the 3 days shutdown? Thanks.

yuefei01, thank you! You are right, I almost miss an important piece of information.

kevin chan, every refiner keeps stock! And their stocks should adopt FIFO accounting practice (first in, first out), i.e., old stocks are sold first. Refiners with retail presence benefits from recent managed float gasoline and diesel pricing mechanism, i.e., price for this month is based on last month's price. When crude price is on a downtrend, PETRON is benefitting from selling stock at a marked up price, so long crude price is on a downtrend. If crude oil price is on a uptrend, the benefit from managed float price mechanism will be gone. Though, since crude oil is still expected to be on a downtrend or flat at best, this should bode well for refiners, especially when the refiners are enjoying high refining margin, see above news I posted earlier... just sharing what I have learnt, do correct me if I were wrong, thanks!

Guess that's why PetronM is making so much money lately!

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/saudi-aramco-raises-asia-oil-pricing-amid-higher-refiner-profits?type=Corporate

Saudi Aramco raises Asia oil pricing amid higher refiner profits

DUBAI (Jan 5): Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, raised pricing for all February oil sales to Asia amid higher refining margins in the region. It kept levels unchanged for most grades sold to the U.S.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. increased its official selling price for Arab Light crude sold to Asia by 60 cents a barrel to 80 cents below the regional benchmark, it said in an e-mailed statement. The company, known as Saudi Aramco, was expected to narrow the discount for Arab Light to Asia by 55 cents a barrel, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of six refiners and traders.

The profit that refiners in Asia make from turning crude into gasoline and diesel rose from US$15.93 per barrel on Nov 30 to US$17.66 per barrel on Dec 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, won’t limit production and will seek to supply any demand from the market, Ali Al-Naimi, the country’s oil minister, said Dec 30 on state television. The country pumped 10.25 million barrels daily last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided last month, to set aside any formal target for production. The group has exceeded its previous target of 30 million barrels a day since May 2014, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Supply Glut

Brent crude tumbled 35% last year, as Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC chose to protect their market share instead of cutting output in an effort to support prices. Brent dropped from more than US$100 a barrel in July 2014, to trade at about US$37 on Tuesday, amid a global glut.

Saudi Aramco reduced the premium for Arab Extra Light crude to the U.S. by 50 cents a barrel to US$2.35 a barrel more than the benchmark, and kept price differentials for all other grades to the U.S. unchanged from January.

The company widened discounts for sales of all grades of crude to Northwest Europe for February, while keeping discounts for all crudes but Arab Light unchanged for buyers in the Mediterranean region.

Middle Eastern producers are competing increasingly with cargoes from Latin America, North Africa and Russia for buyers in Asia, its largest market. Producers in the Persian Gulf region sell mostly under long-term contracts to refiners. Most of the Gulf’s state oil companies price their crude at a premium or discount to a benchmark. For Asia, the benchmark is the average of Oman and Dubai oil grades.

At this rate, we are going to see 7.50 Friday...

Sigh! Hopefully they will keep at this level, will add some once I sell my BJCorp or PetronM

Err... I m happy with 8 - 12 already :-)

Cash per share shouldn't be much different from 2.70 +/- 0.10, unless there is an unknown payment or huge losses incurred that I am not aware of (impairment is not a cash outflow and has 0 impact on net cash.) I am upset that none of the sell-side analyst from major banks have dedicated sufficient analysis to offer public the right numbers, while certain people enjoy 'offering' figures without sufficient background check.

HH2004227, thanks. Just hope I have not lead you to Holland also.

If so, that would be my best performing stock in shortest time frame...

Probably after quarter report in February...

bought some just now at .375, should have queued at 0.37, sigh!

iconquer, my apology if I have misled you. However, all the while, I have focused mainly on the balance sheet and if water deal can be completed (a HUGE concern back then before Selangor state government paid the money.) I am right with the water deal completion despite many said deal won't go through, and I believe my analysis on the balance sheet is right too, i.e., net cash per share should be around 2.70 post special dividend. I don't understand why share price won't perform, and I have more than 60% of my portfolio invested in Puncak (I didn't invest my special dividend on Puncak, thus lowering the %, which earlier is more than 90%.)

The profit is actually a bit disappointing to me. Despite the land disposal, the debt level is only slightly less than last quarter but much higher compared to same quarter last year. Hopefully, the China project can be disposed swiftly to further reduce its debt level while completion of Ritz-Carlton Residence can improve its profitability while further lower its debt level...

The depreciating RM has made the debt looks much bigger. As an example, the USD debt, compared to same quarter last year, has only increased by 11.9 million USD, but the RM equivalent has increased by 233.7 millions. Hopefully, RM will strengthen towards the end of 2016...

err... I was kind of hoping for something between 8 - 12

jacklintan, I am not invested as much in PetronM and BJCorp as in Puncak, so I didn't go through as much in fine details in them as I did to Puncak. Probably you should find some analyst report to read if you like details while dig further using those reports as basis. Well, at least that's how I did... And I bought PetronM in panic cause I have been waiting to buy PetronM at 4.30-4.34 level due to delay in collecting my Puncak special dividend, and it suddenly spike today, causing me to chase higher after receiving mine this afternoon after 2:30pm, sigh!

jacklintan,

BJCorp at multi-year low, been aggressively selling assets/companies lately with visible profits from investment recognized this and next quarter reports (this coming quarter report, recognition from selling land, next quarter report from selling china business), property project disposal (if successful, should help pare down debt further, but no confirmation given earlier failure to sell,) property project completing soon that should free up cash (menara Bangkok bank completed, Ritz Carlton Residence of over 1 billion GDV to be completed soon - hopefully before May 2016?, Japan's to be completed also before May 2016?). Though, most likely won't hold long term on this stock, boss is bad, number forecasting is on a downtrend, property project in Jeju Island seems to be in trouble, highly goreng stock...

PetronM, the company seems to enjoy greatly from low crude oil price despite revaluation loss on inventory. It has made 0.75 in the past 9 months, should make another 0.25-0.30 when result is out this coming February (my guess, never really goes into detail estimation.) Debt has been pared down significantly, something I like. Current gasoline price adjustment at end of month seems to help PetronM in planning ahead on cost structure. I believe crude oil should trade at low level at least until June (I mean below 60, best if kept below 50 until year end) and should help PetronM business.

Hopefully, I can make some decent profits from these two before switching back to add more Puncak around April should Puncak remains around 1.50-1.70 level. Prefer not adding till I am clear with coming quarter report, but won't sell my current holding, guess has confidence with my valuation.

On board Petron today, albeit at a higher than hoped for price, sigh!

bought back what I sold earlier at 0.385 today... hopefully the coming quarter result will be good and offer a rally till Chinese New Year.

roger, its ok, I won't sell my Puncak holding anyway and shall wait another 2-5 months, after quarterly report and annual meeting...

dare not add more Puncak, used my special dividend to buy BJCorp and PetronM instead.

Merry Christmas and Happy 2016 to all!

roger, indeed... I have thought that Puncak share price will track its cash position and believed that the water deal will be sealed eventually. I was right the second half but not the first half... Hopefully Rozali will spend wisely (best if he would allocate 200 millions for share buyback) to offer long term investors like me a good return for holding.

Titus, I derive my cash per share estimate based on the latest quarter report. You could read my earlier posting and reconfirm with the announced quarter report. You may also double confirm through the Puncak investor relations which I haven't done...

as to why's the share price fail to reflect its cash in hand, frankly, I have totally no idea. While I am not certain if I should add more once I have received my special dividend now, I sure would not sell what I have currently at this absurd price and would rather wait until Rozali reveal his plan on Puncak.

muttoncurry, it's not the business that's worth celebrating, it's Puncak net cash of 2.77 per share that's making Puncak looks so cheap...

Might as well share buy back using 200 mil. It's basically using RM 1.53 to buy RM 2.77 of cash + RM 1.20 of land

No money, sigh. Will be able to buy once receive my special dividend, another week. Nothing to do but wait...

But one thing for sure, Rozali is not very transparent or fair. 1. He didn't reveal the sukuk will be redeemed earlier. 2. He had yet to offer his business plan after the asset disposal, given changes in market environment. 3. He had yet to suggest if he would buy back shares given it's ridiculous price compared to what it's worth

Benblurblur, no idea if the 53 million income is recurring or not. No idea if Kuala Selangor land could be fully developed. I have assumed the valuation of it's Kuala Selangor land based on Ecoworld venturing into that area too. It's an open question if Rozali will and can abuse the remaining cash. Our governance is better compared to 10 years ago, but there's a will, there's a way. I can only hope Rozali is a fair owner, given his willingness to share the special dividend...

Stockraider, I agree with your reasoning if analysts first STATED cash in hand post disposal, special dividend & redemption is RM 2.77 plus net long term asset of approximately RM 1.00 per share. Then, suggest a 60% discount to it's valuation is JUSTIFIABLE. I would be OK with that analysis then. My point is analysts have failed to offer fair and accountable analysis...