bsngpg, you offend nobody. You have expressed your own opinion. Your opinion is always 忠言, worthy of listening to.

I don't think TTB one is 忠言. I kind of agree that he was using an excuse to mask his under-performance. TTB is not a humble person like you.

Actually it is nothing wrong to admit some mistakes he has made for the under-performance. But he chooses to put down his critics, like what he did to Lexey Partners who tried to do something good for all the shareholders in the last saga.

Posted by houseofordos > Oct 21, 2013 11:24 AM | Report Abuse

If the fund's assets are marked to market then is 20% discount to NAV justified ? Dont really understand this close ended fund... because in most open ended fund NAV = unit price..

That is the difference between CEF and OEF. The assets of CEF is made up of cash and quoted shares mainly. Its share price depend on supply and demand, and not based on the share value (NAV).

Is 20% discount reasonable? You tell me.

So in comparison, icap did very badly against the unit trusts for the last 5 years. So don't think TTB is infallible.

bsngpg, my statement about 75%-80% of the funds under-performed the market is for the research from the US market. My statement is wrong in the Malaysian context. Thanks for pointing out. In fact I have written about it at the link below.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600023703.jsp

I guess the Malaysian market is not an efficient market as compared to the US market.

bsngpg, it is not that 它对现在市场的看法不可取。 Many famous investors and economists are also having the same opinion. But again there are also equal number of famous investors and economists having the opposite thinking.

The fact is that in the capital market, nobody can predict the market correctly and consistently. Tan Teng Boo is no exception. In fact he is one of the unlucky ones who has been wrong about the market for too many times and for so long. He is no hero. In fact heroes are rare breed in the capital market.

Tan KW,

Yes, a better measurement of icap's performance is its NAV. At present the market price is 20% below its NAV.

But since 5 years ago, icap has been undervalued at about the same magnitude. That means the growth in NAV is about the same as the compounded annual growth of its share price. That means NAV is also under-performing at the same magnitude as the share price.

That could also mean that at a discount of 20% to its NAV, icap is a good investment. Not because TTB is a good fund manager. Anyway, he has been proven to be just another ordinary fund manager for the last 5 years.

Icap是专业投资机構，当然知道何为熊

Aren't all the management funds and unit trusts in US and the world 专业投资机構? But the statistics are indisputable. 75-80% of those funds under-performed the broad market.

So can they predict the market direction? You tell me.

Say you have 100m and you bet 玩大小. Your first bet 1m on "big", a small bet. You lose. You bet the second one, also lose. So after losing 5 five time betting "big", or 5m, you said ini kali lah and you bet 5m, a big bet on this "big" again.

First what is the probability that this time is "big"? Mathematically it is still 50-50. So say this time it comes out "big" and you win 5m. And you just make back what you have lost the last 5 times.

But don't forget the probability that it will come out "small" again is 50%. And if it happens, what will happen?

You lose all your money.


Various market timing research for 10 years ending 1997 have been carried out. During this period, the S&P 500 was up more than 18% per year. these are just two of them which are also consistent with other research.

Mark Hulbert in Hulbert’s Financial Digest.
1. The timer’s annual average returns ranged from 5.8% to 16.9%.
2. The average return was 10.1%
3. None of the market timers beat the market

MoniResearch studied the performance of 85 fund managers with a total of 10 billion under management.
1. The timers’ annual average return ranged from 4.4% to 16.9%
2. The average return was 11.04%
3. None of the market timers beat the market

I was told that in the annual general shareholders meeting of icap, almost all the participants were treating Tan Teng Boo as the oracle of Bursa. They praised him, nodded with full agreement with whatever he said. Anybody who raised any disagreement or presented an opposing view would be shut down by the attendees. TTB once said he is better than Warren Buffet.

This is hero worshipping. Is hero worshipping good for you in investing? Is hero worshipping good for icap shareholders? I guess few of them know the correct answer.

Let us look at the share price performance of icap since 5 years ago. Table 1 below shows the performance of icap compared to KLSE as on 18/10/2013, with the closing price of RM2.34, and KLSE at 1800.

Year 1 2 3 4 5
Icap share price 2.21 1.93 1.92 1.71 1.40
Icap 5.9% 10.1% 6.8% 8.2% 10.8%
KLCI 7.7% 11.8% 6.5% 9.2% 15.9%

For a 5 year holding period, the compounded annual return of icap share is 10.8%, way under-performed the broad market of 15.9% by 5.1%. Compared with other holding period, icap’s performance is dismal to say the least.

How is icap performance compared to the unit trusts which many people scorn of? Read my analysis in the link below and find out from yourselves.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600023703.jsp

Why is the performance of icap so bad? The Archilles heel of TTB is he is practising market timing since 5 years ago to try to earn extra-ordinary return for icap, despite him saying that he is a value investor. Up to a third to half of icap assets are kept as cash since 5 years ago; worrying about depression coming, Dubai debt problem, General Election, European debt crisis, China slowdown, US debt crisis, Quantity Easing, Umno election etc, events which are beyond his control.

Is the market too high now at PE 15-16? I am not sure because the market has been much higher than this. Is the market risky? I don’t know but TTB believes very strongly about it. Of course investors should follow his advice, and not mine, because he is the oracle of Bursa. But again he has been saying this since 5 years ago.
The following sayings may provide some light.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch

“Most of success in life is in just showing up.” Woody Allen

“Investors would do well to learn from deer hunters and fishermen who know the importance of “being there” and using patient persistence-so they are there when opportunity knocks.”
Charles Ellis Investment Policy

Just found out that what house said, you can download from bookos

Who wants the e-book "Margin of Safety" by Seth Klarman?

Posted by iafx > Oct 19, 2013 05:03 PM | Report Abuse
mr.market interested in real hard $ only, not paper value. pmcorp so good directors, employees buy up already, still struggle as penny? sigh.

Posted by anbz > Oct 19, 2013 05:56 PM | Report Abuse
calvin calvin...iafx sedang sindir u...he is teasing u lah...and u act as if he is actually praising PMcorp in real?????
with this:
1. "pmcorp so good directors" by iafx... and u simply wrote the same phrases? without thinking...what would people say then .after this...Lol...good directors
2. iafx gives u this...>>>>> mr.market interested in real hard $ only, not paper value
3. with this "fuuyyooi." by iafx
4. with this "value for $ power story writter" by iafx......the story is power...just the story or the stock also???
5. ;) ....by iafx ....siap kenyit mata tu...haha
6. by iafx : "still struggle as penny? sigh." ...what's that 'sigh' for
---
bro iafx...memang pandai cakap sama olang....bikin org pun susah mau malah...kena senyum sama dia ma...dalam hati cakap: ini olang sudah "kenakan" aku...tapi apa boleh buat..tak tau mau response apa...pasal memang betul ma..dia punya opposite la
---


anbz, your "brother"'s comments have no substance. Compared to the knowledge calvin has, it is like 小巫見大巫. I don't think calvin even bother to reply on those comments.

Seth Klarman, one of the best in investing.

Focus on risk before you start thinking about returns

Research shows the pain of losing 50% of your money far outweighs the pleasure to be had from making a 50% return. To be successful as an investor you must focus your research on the risks of a company’s business model and its industry. Remember that the first rule of investment is not to lose money. Also remember – and this is particularly pertinent to technology companies – that today’s good business may not be tomorrow’s winner (see my colleague Tim Bennett’s points on the importance of economic moats for more on this).


You are buying a stake in a business, not a piece of paper

Investment success comes from buying the cash flows of businesses for less than they are worth. These cash flows come from the real world, not punting numbers on a computer screen. So focus on free cash flow rather than profits. And look at balance sheets to see risks like too much debt or big pension fund liabilities.

Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 20, 2013 01:34 PM | Report Abuse X

Posted by bsngpg > Oct 20, 2013 08:19 AM | Report Abuse
Dear Peggy: KC 是大師，bs是小禹。不可同日而语。

I believe bsngpg's investment philosophies suit most people. And that is good enough to earn a little above the return of the market. But most of all, the strategy is a safe one.

Oop sorry, I forgot bsngpg's stocks like Globetronics and Zhulian etc made big money too. Not just "little over the market return".

Posted by peggy8229 > Oct 19, 2013 11:44 PM | Report Abuse

Dear kc and bsngpg,

Thank for your advice. For your kind information, I prefer investment rather than trade (70 % vs 30%) . May I know is it you are in the same group? Btw, I can understand Chinese well but if typing in Chinese , I need more time.

I personally believe FA is the way to go for investment. Other than FA, can you consider it as "investing"?

I also believe TA helps. but I would only use it for entrance and not exit. Because for me if I have studied the company well enough and have bought its share, I won't sell it just because the market is down, or its share price is down. It is against my logic. I would in fact buy more. Of course unless the fundamentals of the company has changed.

I would sell also if its share price has exceeded its intrinsic value.

Posted by CityTrader > Oct 15, 2013 12:32 PM | Report Abuse
付学费呗 咱这儿有好多中国城。晚上去消费又能学习到中国话 何乐而不为呢

CityTrader, good on you, have fun. I think you are like me when I was younger. I spent six figures in those things you do. Those days the songs of 四大天王 were the most popular, and I tell you I can sing all of their new songs with passions and style. Those were the days.

However, if I were to calculate those costs and bring them to the present value now, I believe it would amount to the upper 6 digit figures.

Yes, it is a lot of money. but luckily I didn't have to come up with my own money.

So have fun when you are young, but beware of the cost and effect on your retirement planning.

Posted by bsngpg > Oct 20, 2013 08:19 AM | Report Abuse
Dear Peggy: KC 是大師，bs是小禹。不可同日而语。

I believe bsngpg's investment philosophies suit most people. And that is good enough to earn a little above the return of the market. But most of all, the strategy is a safe one.

Posted by anbz > Oct 20, 2013 12:37 AM | Report Abuse
kcchong...calling kcchong...didn't i gave all the DATA/facts as u ascribed it..well?

anbz, I don't need to check and I believe what you gave on the profit and losses of PM Corp and PW Con are true. I don't think you would simply make up numbers. You should be good at numbers, after all you are a graduate in Mathematics.

However, you have to gauge if those comparative numbers are relevant or not. They are history, history of years ago. What is important is the present and the future.

I know something about PMCorp as I have done some analysis of its financial statement and posted in this thread before. My reason of investing in PMCorp is because of its value in Graham net-net. This investing strategy is low risk because if net-net is more than its present share price, especially this net-net is made up with quality assets like cash and investments where there is a market value, there is little risk that you will lose much.

Have you look into what PW Con's assets are made up of? Is there huge amount in receivables which are you sure they are collectible, and what is the aging analysis of this receivables? Is it made up of mostly inventories, plant and equipment and what are the likely fire-sale value of these stuff? How much PW Con is owing to creditors? Is the net asset made up of intangibles? So after you get the realizable value of this assets, is it enough to pay creditors? After paying, how much is left?

You talked about its earnings, what is the quality of its earnings? Is the earnings from sale of land, plant etc? Is the earnings from its core business actually profitable? How is its cash flows? Any free cash flow? Because with adequate cash flow to cover interest payment, it becomes risky. Without free cash flow, company has to keep on borrowing money to pay dividend, to do investment, to buy new equipment etc.

I actually don't have the details though I have done a little analysis when someone asked me a few months ago. Yes, these are all the questions you have to find answers for for PW Con.

Posted by houseofordos > Oct 18, 2013 07:32 AM | Report Abuse

Btw, I have read the book by Pat Dorsey on the “The 5 Rules for Successful Stock Investing". This is one of the best FA books I ve read and very comprehensive teaching basic valuation, financial statement analysis as well as examples on how to value companies in different industries...

If looking for a simpler method to find good companies, another good book that I believe KC has recommended before is the Little Book That beats the market by Joel Greenblatt. In this book, he explains 2 magic formulas to screen for superior stocks, EV/EBIT and ROIC.

Yes, investing is that simple; find good companies, and buy their stocks at a discount.

How to gauge if a company is good? Yes, from its margins, and return of equity, ROE. ROE=Net profit/Equity. If ROE is >10%, it is good because the net assets (total asset-total liabilities) the company has earn >10% return.

But Net profit can be distorted by profit from non-core business, from one-off items etc. ROE can also be distorted by company borrowing heavily and hence earn good net profit attributed to shareholders during good time; but can be very bad during down economic cycle.

Hence a better gauge of efficiency is the return of invested capital (ROIC). ROIC is the after-tax return of all capitals, equity plus debt. This measures the efficiency independent of capital structure.

Then how to consider if the price is reasonable or cheap. As you know a good company is not a good investment if you overpay for it?

A common metric is PE ratio. The lower the PE ratio the better the value. However, PE ratio disregards the capital structure and the excess cash a company has. Two companies can have the same PE ratio; but one has a lot of borrowings, and/or less excess cash which is not needed in the ordinary operations. So those two companies having the same PE are not of the same value.

A better metric would be enterprise value/Ebit. this takes into the considerations of both the capital providers, equity and debts providers, and their combined earnings.

For more of this, please refer to the Magic Formula in the following link:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900285510.jsp

Yes, investing is simple; buy good companies at cheap price, as described by "the Little Book That beats the market" by Joel Greenblatt.

If you ant to learn about financial statement analysis and interpretation, and discount cash flow analysis, then go for this book Pat Dorsey on the “The 5 Rules for Successful Stock Investing"

Posted by today98 > Oct 18, 2013 06:05 PM | Report Abuse
hi kcchongnz,
what's wrong with pw con? very nearly bought some until i saw your comments. Please elaborate.
thanks

sorry I won't write anything about PW con as the person who raised this specifically asked me not to write anything about it. But I think you should be smart enough to find out why I said so in this technology age.

What the fellow said above is true, buy good stocks(But not his character). Forget about speculative stocks for people like you. Forget about TA as it is not suitable for you. Again if you are at a loss of what good stocks are, you should be smart enough to goggle, even in i3. You don't have to follow me. But I can give you a few guys here whom you can rely on good information. Some of them are bsngpg, unclez, sense maker, Ben Gan etc. However they are not ke poh like me. they don't talk much and don't quarrel with other people. So you don't see many of their postings.

Hi KClow, I am curious here. Have I done anything bad to you?

anbz, let me tell this straight to your face. Whatever my comments, it nothing whether I like it or not. I base on facts, facts from the financial statements. What I wrote about PM Corp is not because of what calvin or anybody else says. What I wrote about NovaMSC, Kfima etc also is not because I like them or don't like them. They are all based on facts.

Tell me what part of my comments on PM Corp or NovaMSC is not based on facts?

I cannot forecast the future share price. Hence I am seldom right about the share price movement. It is all about fundamentals.

If until now you still don't know my style. I don't know what to say.

As I have said, if you don't wish me to comment on PW con, I won't. Because if I do, you won't like it. Antagonizing others is not my motive when I share information and knowledge. Also notice if something is not good, I won't comment, unless others ask. I only talk about good things.

However, sometimes I think I got a social obligation to comment on some junks which are very clearly rubbish. My comments on these rubbish seldom go wrong. If I don't, many newbies will get conned by big bad sharks, which I personally don't like to see.

PW con a gem? really? anbz, do you want my view on it? I don't want to spoil your fun if you don't want. Let me know.

Posted by anbz > Oct 18, 2013 04:55 PM | Report Abuse
hey rooney i've just told about PW...are u not seeing thing huh ? PW Consolidated Bhd nta RM 3.51 ..and price only 73 cents..look at my posting above

We are typical Asians with great and courteous culture. We respect each other, even though we have different views. We give constructive criticisms and credit if due.

Unlike somebody here just like to simply accuse; accuse others of cheating while he was the one who cheated; accuse others of copy and paste, tipu pusing, bullshit macham macham but nothing to substantiate.

Posted by iafx > Oct 18, 2013 11:54 AM | Report Abuse
u sounds/wrote juz like "OTB" u know? hahahaa... anyway, bought 1 lot of PMCORP, maybe it can ROI 1 big bottle carlsbg?! hahahahaa...

Hey don't forget calvin also=kcchongnz=KC Loh in one of your posts.

And also make sure before you buy the 1 lot of PMCorp, you have enough money for your bottle of beer.

Sorry guys here, whenever i am attacked for curi tipu, I would like to console myself with some real figures.

New Portfolio Return 18/10/13
Two months 18 days have passed since we first started our portfolio. In this period, KLCI has risen marginally from 1773 to 1798, or 1.4%. but how have our portfolios performed at real time now? Please refer to the thread below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/19386.jsp

kcchongnz's portfolio has gained an average of 11.3% in the period. That means the portfolio has returned an alpha of 9.8% using the KLCI as a benchmark. 9 out of the 11 stocks made positive return with 4 of them in double digit percentage. They are Datasonic (47.2%), Fibon (33.3%), Pintaras (21.8%) and Daiman (13%). The only two losers only lost marginally, Kfima (-3.9%) and Willoglen at just -2.8%. Details of the return of the portfolio is appended below.


Yes, many counters here were chosen based on good cash flows. So from the results so far in two months, nobody can ridicule me of tipu pusing, bullshit, con people, bluffing, cheating etc, at least for this short-term. Can he?

Ref date Now
New 1/08/2013 18/10/2013
Pintaras 4.990 6.080 0.000 1.090 21.8%
Kfima 2.060 1.900 0.080 -0.080 -3.9%
MFCB 1.700 1.820 0.030 0.150 8.8%
Haio 2.670 2.690 0.000 0.020 0.7%
Fibon 0.330 0.440 0.000 0.110 33.3%
CBIP 2.830 2.890 0.000 0.060 2.1%
Tien Wah 2.510 2.520 0.077 0.087 3.5%
Homeritz 0.430 0.420 0.010 0.000 0.0%
Willow 0.530 0.515 0.000 -0.015 -2.8%
Daiman 2.530 2.860 0.000 0.330 13.0%
Datasonic 3.350 4.930 0.000 1.580 47.2%

Average xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 11.26%
KLSE 1773 1798 xxxx 25.000 1.41%
Alpha xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx 9.8%

Ha, I have sworn in the Kfima thread that I did not do such a low class thing. Have you?

In this cyber space, there are all kinds of people. There are people who talk sense and we can learn from them, like sense maker. There are people who know nothing and we don't know wtf he is talking about, like this guy iafx with the statement above who never dare to swear that he did not cheat by altering the word "Revenue" to "Profit" in the Kfima thread, and yet accused others for doing so.

A good article by 夜月 on what cash flow is.

Some people why I don't use PE ratio to value a stock. that is it.

The "E" in this PE ratio is an accounting number. It is not cash. It depends on how accountant recognized that E. That E could be hidden in the inventories, which could be much less than the actual value. The value and quantum of E could have been recognized by what the company thinks it is, by not by the debtors. for example in construction, the contractors can claim for all kind of additional costs such as variation orders, loss of profit and expenses, additional work beyond the contract agreement etc. But are all these claims true? Often not according to the clients and consultants.

Companies also manipulate this E big time often. For example, companies capitalize marketing cost rather than expending them; take one time off gain as if it is regular E etc. There are thousand ways this E can be manipulated.

Cash flow is not that easy to manipulate because it involves real cash, affecting the bank balance of a company. But it doesn't mean the company cannot manipulate at all. One can see many Chinese companies having good profit and cash flows too. And they can also show you the bank statement that they have plenty of cash (note cash flow is not cash in banks). But can one verify whether if this cash is real? Can one goes to the Chinese banks to verify? Wonder why these "great" Chinese companies nobody wants to invest?

Basically if you invest in a company your friend asks you to, are you happy to hear him saying the company making a lot of money, but tell you to put in more and more because those money is still owed by the debtors for so long already. Or you have to put in more money because the equipment need to be maintained or have to buy more new equipment.

Or will you be happier if your friend tells you the business is making 20% return and now he gives you 15% dividend and the rest reinvested for more profit next time?

Peggy,
Valuation is an art rather than a science. I have said this scores of times here. Go goggle and you will find many valuation methods used.

Basically the method is either earnings based, or asset based. You got to use the right one for different company, or I prefer to use a variety of them to check.

Tan Kian Wei has posted many useful articles in valuation in i3. You can goggle them and read and study them. I have used a variety of valuation methods in i3 here to value many stocks. You are also welcomed to goggle them in i3.

In earnings based valuation, the “correct” way of valuation is the present value, or the discount cash flow (DCF) method to find the intrinsic value of the company. This method is mathematically correct. However the often-not-correct thingy here are the assumptions of future cash flows and the appropriate discount rates. Even in DCF, there are different ways of doing; a pure discount cash flow for a firm or equity holder, a hybrid method for equity holders, Earnings Power Valuation, dividend reinvested assumptions, macham macham.

In earnings based method, I personally prefer to use the private market comparables such as how many times the earnings before interest and tax the enterprise value is selling (EV/Ebit), or if you reverse it, it becomes earnings yield (Ebit/EV), one you can compared the return from alternative investment.

The other principle method of asset based, I like the Graham net-net cigar butt investing. You can find Tan KW’s postings and my valuation using this method in i3 too if you are interested.

Oh yeah, there is a book by Seth Klarman on “Margin of Safety”. This is one of the good books to learn about business valuation. The other good books are “Damonaran on Valuation” by Professor Aswath Damonaran, a more comprehensive valuation book, and “The 5 Rules for Successful Stock Investing” by Pat Dorsey.

Somebody e-mail PRCorp and posted the letter of reply from the person-in-charge. But frankly, I don’t need this e-mail thingy to confirm anything. I have written what I think about the company based on the available information. No need to listen to rumours here rumours there. Nevertheless, I will respond since I am asked, just for the fun of it. By the way, the way this person writes, the words and sentences used, the thought process etc all seem familiar to me., like someone I have sparred with before.

Posted by HJey > Oct 17, 2013 09:37 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongz, i have answer ur question.

WHAT “QUESTION”? “IS CALVIN A CONMAN”? JUST BY THAT E-MAIL? GIVE ME A BREAK!

is calvintaneng guilty? now u know.

GUILTY OF WHAT? GUILTY OF SCUTTLE-BUTTING IN PMCORP AND PROVIDED ALL THE INFORMATION HERE TO SHARE? GUILTY OF HAVING A DIFFERENT OPINION AS YOU?

keep on spinning story, liar calvintaneng. misrepresented calvin. hahaha

SPINNING WHAT STORY? MISREPRESENTED WHAT? WHAT LIES HAS HE TOLD? ACTUALLY EVEN BEFORE YOU SENT THE E-MAIL, YOU ALREADY ACCUSED THAT CALVIN IS A LIAR. WHY AH? WHO ARE YOU ACTUALLY? WHAT IS YOUR MOTIVE?

Jesus watching u and u will face him

IT IS EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE WHAT A GOOD CHRISTIAN IS AND WHAT A NOT-SO-GOOD CHRISTIAN IS HERE.

YOU SEE EVEN THIS FELLOW BELOW ALSO IMPLY THAT THE E-MAIL REPLY HAS CONFIRMED THAT WHATEVER CALVIN SAID ARE FACTS

Posted by anbz > Oct 18, 2013 01:07 AM | Report Abuse
conspiracy theory...hjey claiming this emai..so and so..what? itu video mustapa and anwar gerak gerak...still many didn't believe...and then calvin said...the email shows that he is actually in contact and big friend with the managers/directors of nfi/pmcorp....macam pakat je hjey and calvin--it's like they're acting to argue against another...
----
..sorry jangan marah calvin and hjey....not accusation ...just a worrying assumption..hehe

IT IS JUST THAT THIS GUY READ OR WATCH TOO MUCH OF THOSE DETECTIVE STORIES AND HE CANNOT DIFFERENTIATE TWO PERSONS HAVING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THINKING, DIFFERENT THOUGHT PROCESS AND STYLE OF WRITING. ONE IS DEFINITELY MUCH MORE SUPERIOR THAN THE OTHER.

ACTUALLY I BELIEVE THIS GENTLEMAN BELOW GIVES AN ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THIS E-MAIL THINGY.

Posted by juinming0304 > Oct 17, 2013 09:18 PM | Report Abuse
The letter from email laifah represents nothing. those upload this letter must be unthinkable and naive.
The information misreprensted could be a small thing. may be he qouted laifah as manager instead of senior manager.

AND THIS ONE TOO.

Posted by frankloh > Oct 17, 2013 10:19 PM | Report Abuse
Hi CALVIN,please ignore those who do not believe in you and the attacker.We certaintly appreciate your effort to highlight this counter to the investor here.
Your well written article of PMCORP www.jbhouseforsale.com ,describe with various fact and data.It is rare that writer like you are able to provide all angle of view for this company.
well done,keep up the good work.

SO YOU SHOULD FEEL THE SAME AS THIS GENTLEMAN HERE.

Posted by 1Superman > Oct 17, 2013 09:24 PM | Report Abuse
Relieved after read calvin reply. I still stick to nta 44c as my tp of pmcorp

AND OF COURSE THE POSTING BY CALVIN HIMSELF EXPLAINS ALL.

Posted by calvintaneng > Oct 17, 2013 09:32 PM | Report Abuse
Ladies & Gentlemen,

ALL THE INFORMATION IS POSTED IN THIS PM CORP FORUM. CHECK CAREFULLY AND SEE WHAT I HAVE MISREPRESENTED

I THINK THE CORRECT INTERPRETATION IS "YOU MISREPRESENTED CALVIN".

BEST OF ALL HJEY, COME AND ATTEND OUR PM CORP ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING IN JUNE 2014. WE WILL GIVE YOU A VIP SEAT AND YOU MAY ASK ALL THE QUESTIONS YOU WANT!

BJFood, another Vincent Tan counter? Is it good?

Posted by Joshua Lee > Oct 16, 2013 04:51 PM | Report Abuse
KCChongNZ, would mind help to value BJFood? It looks interesting but PE is rather high right now. Thanks in advance!

Let’s use Cold Eye's 5 yardsticks to evaluate BJFood basing its financial statement in 2013 to see if this company is worth investing as shown below:

5 yardstick of investing by Cold Eye
BJFood 1.720 17/10/2013
Revenue 121915
1 ROE 13.3% >12% ok
Net profit 19007
Equity 143038
2 Cash flows
CFFO 11517 61% Bad
FCF 817 0.7% ok
3 PE ratio 26.1 >10 Bad
Price 1.720
EPS 0.066
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 3.5
Dividend yield 2.0% <3% ok
5 Price/NTA 3.13 >2 Bad
NTA 0.55

As you can see, I don’t have any “good” remark. The best being just ok and many “bad”. Its ROE is just ok at 13.3%. The quality of BJFood’s earnings is not very good. Cash flow from operation is only 61% of its earnings. It has little free cash flow, less than 1% of revenue.

With this type of performance, a PE ratio of 26 is considered way too high for me. Its price-to-NTA is also very high at 3.1.

Its dividend of 3.5 sen last year, or a dividend yield of 2.0% is nothing to shout about. Anyway, BJFood actually can’t afford to pay any dividend at all because of its poor cash flow from operations.

So BJFood doesn’t pass the tests well. So for me, I will stay far away from BJFood. I won’t know its future share price performance though.

Evolution? do you believe in evolution?

Posted by anbz > Oct 16, 2013 11:51 PM | Report Abuse
posted by sephiroth
read B14
http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2013/08/22/1479209292--1281326040.pdf
12/10/2013 16:06
------
posted by kcchongnz

Those losses have already realized as shown, haven't they? That is why its equity have reduced through the years and hence NTA is only 44 sen per share.

In essence, that is history. For example, last time your share portfolio was worth 2m, and you are only willing to part with it at 1.8m say. Now your portfolio is only 50,000, but you are willing to sell to me at 30,000. Why don't I take?
---
my comment:
these comments made me very curious...this is not kcchong's way...is it? why don't he just look at the 1st page???
can he just ignored the SECOND QUARTER ENDED 30 JUNE 2013..and claim it 'also' to be history? baru 3 bulan dah? or if that's not the case...that he was only referring to statement B14...not the 1st page...can kcchong pretend that he doesn't see anything in it? isn't that poooor result? ...oh may be 3 months ago punya cerita...is defined as history? musykil..before kcchong likes to post historical profits for counters in discussion?...now history...is not so important
---
sorry kcchong..wa memang tak boleh lawan lu...but..this one...u seems has adapted to apa nama...evolution?

What are you talking about anbz? Are you talking about the term I used "NTA"? If so then there is a mistake there. Because it should be NAB, or net asset backing. But you don't seem to talk about that, because I am not sure you know the difference.

So the NBA of PMCorp is 44 sen as shown in my post as re-posted by you. That is based on the information as shown in the latest balance sheet on 30 June 2013. So what is wrong with that?

The first page? Poorer result? Oh you are talking about its net income, aren't you? But have I been talking about its net income? Did I say based on its net income, its share should worth so much so much?

Come on anbz, try learning some valuations somewhere. There are basically two main valuation methods; asset based, or earnings based. I never used earnings based method to value PM Corp, because if you have read my posts on PMCorp, I think its earnings is not significant at this moment. But it still earn some money from its food and confectionery business though. Its earnings may expand according to calvin.

Yeah man, your fantastic analysis has shown that my "analysis" wrong. So other "analysis" of yours? What about your "analysis" to the comments below?


Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 16, 2013 08:01 AM | Report Abuse X

Posted by Fortunebull > Oct 15, 2013 08:16 PM | Report Abuse
Comparing PMCorp and Ancomlb is like comparing rotten apple with fresh apple! But lets hope for miracle!

Yeah , agree man. But which is a rotten apple and which is a fresh apple. Judge by yourselves from the following table based on their latest balance sheets:

Company PMCorp ALB
Cash and equivalent 93950 5578
Investments 81977 2802
Total assets 328717 96448
Less totalliabilities -15471 -26580
Equity 313246 69868

Number of shares 773356 473290
NAB 0.41 0.12
NTA 0.32 0.12

Price 0.215 0.190
Price/book 0.53 1.59

Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 16, 2013 08:05 AM | Report Abuse X

More data for your judgement; which is a rotten apple? Which is a fresh apple?

2012 PMCorp AncomLB
Revenue 85611 61610
EPS, sen 1.13 0.13
Price 0.215 0.190
PE 19 146

jcck79, sorry don't know much about this also. I own this share quite a few months ago but have sold it since then. But can I put forward what I think? Can lah.

I think MBBS is a risky investment. Yeah direct debit of government servants through salary deduction seems to be very safe way of doing lending business. But i can tell you that most of this government servant, especially the lower ranking ones borrow too much. Too much that after deduction of car loan, housing loans, cooperative loans etc, they have not much or even none left behind to take home. So how? One of these days even if want to deduct from their salary also no money to deduct. So how?

I don't believe in this kind of business model, for individual, also for the society at large.

Share price performance wise in the future, I really won't know.

Yeah I know I know I know. You already know already about the nitty gritty about the corporate exercise before leelc70 mentioned it. That was why you wrote this:

Posted by Fortunebull > Oct 16, 2013 06:31 PM | Report Abuse
I keep my mouth shut and see how some will spin the announcement! http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/anpth/943266.jsp Like I said before!
Excuse me! I have to go to the shame corner and keep my mouth shut! Take some old newspaper to wipe my butt!

Oh for your post below, I have written my comments in the following thread. So it is your turn now. Don't tell me you will still "Excuse me! I have to go to the shame corner and keep my mouth shut! Take some old newspaper to wipe my butt!"

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900172429.jsp?ftp=20

Posted by Fortunebull > Oct 13, 2013 05:55 PM | Report Abuse
Interesting how the arm chair investor will reply to Eric enquiry on Amedia ;) !

Thanks leelc70 for the info. Yes, I never study the proposal for the corporate exercise because i was never interested in this share. So I was wrong about this 2 shares become one, I guess.

Posted by wwwcomment > Oct 16, 2013 01:59 PM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, starting to follow your analysis. Any commet regarding oil and gas stocks like dialog, perisai, etc? Thx

wwwcomment, that is the job of an analyst, not only an analyst, but an analyst specializes in oil and gas.

The non-analyst's opinion here is I don't know much of it, and I am not a follower of hypes. Let's take the O&G SPACs.

Punters have been chasing this O&G SPACs even from their initial IPO, you know they collect money from you even before they have the faintest idea what kind of O&G business they will acquire. They get the smartest or the richest people from the industry, and presume that they will be able to get some good buys for them, some more with good prices. Hey this is a capitalist country. If people got such good assets, why sell? And if sell, why sell to you? and if sell to you, why must sell you at good price?

At the mean time, the listed company go looking for acquisition. They need to pay salary, running costs, investment bankers' fees etc, even though they have no business, none at all to pay for these costs.

So easy to find a good buy ah? If can't find and the ending date is approaching, how? Simply grab one lah. You think they can grab a good company to acquire? You think they can get it for a good price when desperate?

While scouting here and there for acquisition, it is expenses, expenses, expenses; fees fees, fees.

SPACs started in US may be 20 years ago. Without fail, all of them fail. Go goggle.

Yes, you have good Oil and gas companies, dialog is one. Dialog has a fantastic history of growth and shareholder value enhancing. But at 2.82 now, and trailing EPS of 8 sen for a PE of 35, are you willing to pay the price for such a high growth expectation? Not me.

Perisai? I looked at it quite some time ago. Yes people made money, I mean the major shareholder. He sold his assets to the company at handsome price and profit. Company seems to be making money, but when is the cash? Do the shareholders receive any dividend? Why not? I see so many doubts there and hence I don't bother to look at it. I remember my remisier friends keep on telling me to buy last time with the RSI lah, fibo lah but I didn't give a damn.

Any other O&G counters I know of. Yeah lah KencanaSapura lah, Perdana lah, etc. But Iknow nothing about them. As I have said, I don't follow hypes.

peggy, you pick up very fast. Anyway, this is just one of the numerous methods of valuing a share. It starts with a base PE of 8, or an earnings yield of about 12%.

the earnings yield can be comparable with your interest rate.

house, I am not sure about this corporate exercise. You know I am not a finance professional.

My guess is the company could have used other reserves such as share premium, capital reserves etc which are non-distributable reserve to convert to profit and hence as retained earnings and altering the share capital.

Lets not discuss this stuff in this thread and antagonize them.

Fortunebull, fine if that is the way you want. I am happy with that too.

For your information, the compounded annual return of my Kfima for my 4 years holding period is 34.2% compared to the 9.3% of KLCI.

So save your breadth from criticizing my holding in Kfima.

JCool, I say...stop simply post anything now. Go and study the things carefully. Have a clear head before embarking on any more comments.

You are exposing yourself to more of the ignorance of yourself by doing so.

And I, I think I should stop wasting time on you and spend more time analyse stuff and discuss with others.

Hi Fortunebull, it is not my intention to shame anybody. Why would I? For what? After all we are all mature people.

Lets forget who started the cynical remarks first. My purpose of all my postings are for sharing of ideas and thoughts. Nothing personal. If you find my postings misleading or wrong information, you are always welcomed to correct me. If it is true, I would thank you rather than ridicule you. But when you the words like liar, without substantiation, then I think you go out of bound.

Wah Jcool, you are really fantastic in your arithmetic.

When there is a capital reduction and 2 shares become one share, don't you think it ends up the same? Your earnings per share doubles but you now only have half the number of shares. Some more when you take out 8 sen per shares, the value of your share won't be correspondingly lowered by the same amount?

My Jcool, you can't do magic by capital reduction and pay special dividend and then increase the shareholder value like that, can you? If like that ah every company will be doing this magic all the time already oh!

okokok, lets look at the latest quarterly result, not yesterday's papers.

The last quarter AncomLB made 0.13 sen. so annualized 0.13*4=0.52 sen.

So lets give a ACE counter a PE of 5, so the fair price of AncomLB would be 5*0.52=2.6 sen.

Ha, too low lah definitely. Lets give a much higher valuation of PE of 10 lah. So fair price is 10*0.52=5.2 sen.

Aiyah cannot lah where got so low. Let say we give a PE ratio of 20 lah. Fair price is 20*0.52=10.04 sen.

Aiyah how ah? I give up already.

Posted by houseofordos > Oct 16, 2013 09:47 AM | Report Abuse
Calvin & KC, I m curious why PMCorp would undertake capital reduction ? Why not just pay out a special dividend ? Normally I would expect them to do this to wipe out the accumulated losses and put them in better financial standing. But current par value is RM0.5, what is the new par value ? Honestly I ve not seen companies in Bursa with par value of RM0.3 or RM0.4. Closest is maybe RM0.2. Not sure if there is any rules on this, So if assuming new par value RM0.2, their cash on hand is only RM0.19, this is not enough for cash distribution to shareholder unless they borrow from bank or sell more assets.
Please educate me. Many thanks

I was waiting for calvin to answer this as I think he knows the details already. This thing is new to me also. But can I put forward what I think? do I have to make any disclaimer, as I really am not sure of this? What the heck, I just go ahead.

Looking at PMCorp's 2012 audited account on the equity portion of the balance sheet, it has 30.5m of treasury shares and 41m in accumulated losses. There is no retained earnings which is a distributable reserves. Dividends can only be distributed from distributable reserve in retained earnings. Hence PMCorp has to do a capital reduction, to cancel off the treasury shares, and wipe off the accumulated losses and create some kind of "profit" as "retained earnings". Then only it can distribute dividends. exactly how they are going to do it, I don't know.

Posted by Ooi Cheng Kee > Oct 16, 2013 11:07 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, what do you think of Homeriz? Still can add on since price drop?

Ooi CK, please note that I can't predict share price movement. My belief is that nobody can. But if you are interested my view in fundamentals of Homeritz, you can read the link below and make your own judgement if you want to invest in it.

Please note that I have emphasized the word "invest".

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stock_pick_challenge_2013_2h/34945.jsp

Is this the same "rich" who tos the stock pick challenge?

Posted by rlch > Oct 16, 2013 10:45 AM | Report Abuse
If Amedia so bad, why my 10sen queue is not done?

So is having a revenue of 6.16m and a net profit of 0.13 sen per share better than a revenue of 85.6m and a net profit of 1.13 sen per share?

Who cares about what the par value is? It is the price-to-book and price to earnings ratio which is of concern when you look at value.

I dropped my glasses about you. I thought you really know something. But I was wrong obviously. I am wasting my time with you.

Is Asia Media a hidden gem? Hah!!!!!

Posted by Eric Wong > Oct 13, 2013 05:51 PM | Report Abuse
Dear KCChongNZ,
As for AMEDIA, i think most of us know about it and i categorized it as under recovery gem. High profit margin, slowed down growth rate and earning, debts? 10% of its revenue, is this consider high?
Please enlighten. Thanks.

This is what I said when asked 6 months ago when it was about 13.5 sen.

Asia Media (16/4/2013)

My favourite analyst, Phillip Capital (PC) made a strong recommendation to invest in Asia Media in mid 2011. That was the time I first exposed to this company. At the beginning of 2012, PC still favoured this stock as they wrote:

“Asia Media business remains intact with its 9MFY2012 net profit of RM12.9mil came in within our expectation. It has recently rewarded its investors with bonus issue (1:1) and free warrant (1:1). Besides, our channel checks reveal that the company is still eyeing for its Main Board migration.”

I also have read a couple of articles from a couple of investment bloggers and they cast doubts on Amedia’s business model. Hence I didn’t pay any attention to this stock at all. In May last year, Amedia came into limelight with its adjusted share price jumped from 15 sen after a 10% private placement, to 55 sen, or a 300+% increase just within four months. However, shortly after that, the share price plunged within two weeks to where it began when the major shareholder sold 9% of his holding. Guess who made the killing?

Now at a price of 13.5 sen, at an adjusted price of almost at its lowest since listing, and a “PE ratio” of just 5.8, is it worth to invest in this stock? Let’s look at how Amedia has been performing recently and what is the financial health of this company.

Table 1: Financial performance of Amedia (value in thousands)
Year 2012 2011 2010
Revenue 44766 36548 16554
Net Income 11739 15009 10282
NI Margin 26% 41% 62%

Table 1 shows that the revenue of Amedia is indeed growing very fast since its listing from 2010 to 2012. Its earnings is also decent with net income margin of 26%, although the earnings in 2012 has decreased by 3.3m. The net income margin decreased at an alarming speed, down from 62% in 2012 to just 26% in 2012. Why? We will have a look at its cash flows.

Table 2: Cash flow of Amedia
Year 2012 2011 2010
Revenue 44766 36548 16554
CFFO 12466 44471 4870
CFFO/NI 106% 296% 47%
Capex -24259 -54496 -2959
FCF -11793 -10025 1911

Table 2 shows that the cash flow from operations (CFFO) is good at 106% of NI in 2012. In 2011, CFFO is a whopping 296% of NI, fantastic. This shows the good quality of its earnings (or is it?). However, Amedia, after spending for capital expenses, expenses required to grow its business, it has no free cash flow (FCF). In fact FCF is as much as its earnings of 11.8 m in 2012, abeit at a negative value. Capital expenses of 24.3m in 2012 and 54.5 m in 2011 are just mind boggling, considering the amount of business it has been doing and the earnings it made for the two years. Why so much?

A closer look at Table 2 shows more discrepancies of its account. For example, how come the CFFO for 2011 is so huge at 44.5m, even higher than its revenue of 36.5m? The high CFFO of 44.5m higher than revenue coupled with the even higher capital expenses of 54.5m in 2011 makes one feel that there is a manipulation; something like boosting of CFFO with financial shenanigans. I now have doubts of its financial statements, not only for 2011, but also for 2012.

Amedia’s balance sheet appears to be healthy with a tangible asset backing of 15 sen per share. However, the bulk of this NTA of 90% is made up of “Properties, plant and equipment” which we won’t know what is the actual realizable value. It has a net cash position of 8m. This is because of money from new issues and additional bank borrowings for the last two year; total 24m and 12m respectively in 2011 and 2012.

Am I right in my analysis? I am not 100% sure but when I am in doubt, I don’t even want to look at its other things. I personally would avoid the stock of this company.