anyone can mumble & mumble & mumble for yearS, finally got right 1 time and claim he is right forever. hahahaa... icap wasted 1 of the very best rally in history, that's a fact too.
You r right, Icap missed de bull this round. At his level, it is weird that he missed it. What I mean RIGHT is his assessment on the current mktg. I agree with him that the current High is risky and unsustainable.
Then, should I sell now? Due to greed, I do not plan to sell too but prepare to take loss. I foresee I will be in negative position in de upcoming Bear but Icap in positive position. Let us see.
at all time high, it's an uncharted situation sure there come plenty of worries. but looking back, which day after klci cross 1450 v r not worry? learn how to cope with it is most important rather than guessing the market. treat investment like doing biz is the best, not gamble. icap is gambling the market shall crash, bottom fishing is equally deadly. manage yr greed is a must, don't put everything in share market, common sense.
Please note that FBMKLCI is forming a bullish Inverted Head And Shoulder, KL stock market will be super bullish if KLCI can cross 1,805. Please look at the chart yourself. Thank you.
As I agreed with his high risk assessment on the current mktg which means I should not buy Icap now as it is also at high risks too b'cos Icap's biz is in Bursa. I will buy Icap in future, not now.
My current position in Bursa is neither buy nor sell. But deep inside my heart, I should sell now. What to do, I am an ordinary people with greed. Greed is "shiok" than rational.
Anyway, as long as the earning of companies in my portfolio is still the same or not too bad as compared to the current, my div yield is still higher than FD in the Bear mktg. Thus I will have a cut in capital, but the div income is still higher than FD. This will weather thru the Bear for the next Bull. I see this is the greatest thing I have made in this Bull.
I was told that in the annual general shareholders meeting of icap, almost all the participants were treating Tan Teng Boo as the oracle of Bursa. They praised him, nodded with full agreement with whatever he said. Anybody who raised any disagreement or presented an opposing view would be shut down by the attendees. TTB once said he is better than Warren Buffet.
This is hero worshipping. Is hero worshipping good for you in investing? Is hero worshipping good for icap shareholders? I guess few of them know the correct answer.
Let us look at the share price performance of icap since 5 years ago. Table 1 below shows the performance of icap compared to KLSE as on 18/10/2013, with the closing price of RM2.34, and KLSE at 1800.
For a 5 year holding period, the compounded annual return of icap share is 10.8%, way under-performed the broad market of 15.9% by 5.1%. Compared with other holding period, icap’s performance is dismal to say the least.
How is icap performance compared to the unit trusts which many people scorn of? Read my analysis in the link below and find out from yourselves.
Why is the performance of icap so bad? The Archilles heel of TTB is he is practising market timing since 5 years ago to try to earn extra-ordinary return for icap, despite him saying that he is a value investor. Up to a third to half of icap assets are kept as cash since 5 years ago; worrying about depression coming, Dubai debt problem, General Election, European debt crisis, China slowdown, US debt crisis, Quantity Easing, Umno election etc, events which are beyond his control.
Is the market too high now at PE 15-16? I am not sure because the market has been much higher than this. Is the market risky? I don’t know but TTB believes very strongly about it. Of course investors should follow his advice, and not mine, because he is the oracle of Bursa. But again he has been saying this since 5 years ago. The following sayings may provide some light.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch
“Most of success in life is in just showing up.” Woody Allen
“Investors would do well to learn from deer hunters and fishermen who know the importance of “being there” and using patient persistence-so they are there when opportunity knocks.” Charles Ellis Investment Policy
gambling yes, once result out u collect all yr win at once. but in bear market, how do u know a bottom is real bottom? it can go low and lower until u r exhausted it still going south. also, share market is affected by external issue as well.
ttb knows any mistake he made now will result to expel, so the best he can do is nothing and sing bear song. however, who knows what he did behind. good luck to him!
Say you have 100m and you bet 玩大小. Your first bet 1m on "big", a small bet. You lose. You bet the second one, also lose. So after losing 5 five time betting "big", or 5m, you said ini kali lah and you bet 5m, a big bet on this "big" again.
First what is the probability that this time is "big"? Mathematically it is still 50-50. So say this time it comes out "big" and you win 5m. And you just make back what you have lost the last 5 times.
But don't forget the probability that it will come out "small" again is 50%. And if it happens, what will happen?
You lose all your money.
Various market timing research for 10 years ending 1997 have been carried out. During this period, the S&P 500 was up more than 18% per year. these are just two of them which are also consistent with other research.
Mark Hulbert in Hulbert’s Financial Digest. 1. The timer’s annual average returns ranged from 5.8% to 16.9%. 2. The average return was 10.1% 3. None of the market timers beat the market
MoniResearch studied the performance of 85 fund managers with a total of 10 billion under management. 1. The timers’ annual average return ranged from 4.4% to 16.9% 2. The average return was 11.04% 3. None of the market timers beat the market
not sure if translated is correct or not... but since icap failed to identify the bull, u think icap can identify the bear? icap cannot handle a bull u believe icap can manage the bear? annual report a must read - yes, but do not take everything as is... believe it or not up to u. will stop here as don't want to waste time on icap cerita, good luck!
Aren't all the management funds and unit trusts in US and the world 专业投资机構? But the statistics are indisputable. 75-80% of those funds under-performed the broad market.
So can they predict the market direction? You tell me.
Yes, a better measurement of icap's performance is its NAV. At present the market price is 20% below its NAV.
But since 5 years ago, icap has been undervalued at about the same magnitude. That means the growth in NAV is about the same as the compounded annual growth of its share price. That means NAV is also under-performing at the same magnitude as the share price.
That could also mean that at a discount of 20% to its NAV, icap is a good investment. Not because TTB is a good fund manager. Anyway, he has been proven to be just another ordinary fund manager for the last 5 years.
That could also mean that at a discount of 20% to its NAV, icap is a good investment. Not because TTB is a good fund manager. Anyway, he has been proven to be just another ordinary fund manager for the last 5 years.
If the fund's assets are marked to market then is 20% discount to NAV justified ? Dont really understand this close ended fund... because in most open ended fund NAV = unit price..
bsngpg, it is not that 它对现在市场的看法不可取。 Many famous investors and economists are also having the same opinion. But again there are also equal number of famous investors and economists having the opposite thinking.
The fact is that in the capital market, nobody can predict the market correctly and consistently. Tan Teng Boo is no exception. In fact he is one of the unlucky ones who has been wrong about the market for too many times and for so long. He is no hero. In fact heroes are rare breed in the capital market.
KC大佬:你说70-80%of fund mgr underperformed the broad mkt. However my actual investment in about 8 funds in Public Mutual, 2 in EastSpring(Prudential) n 3 in Osk-uob, are averagely above broad mkt.
KC大佬:I am a pure Chinese educated old fashion guy. I like to hear 忠言more than 火上加油. So when Icap assessed that the current mkt is risky, I support the comment to alert more people. I think it is better than hooray and keep on pumping money into mkt.
bsngpg, my statement about 75%-80% of the funds under-performed the market is for the research from the US market. My statement is wrong in the Malaysian context. Thanks for pointing out. In fact I have written about it at the link below.
KC大佬:I knew the word "half past six" may offend many. I wrote it with purpose to attract people to read the high risk assessment by Icap. That's all. Do not mean to offend anybody here.
Posted by houseofordos > Oct 21, 2013 11:24 AM | Report Abuse
If the fund's assets are marked to market then is 20% discount to NAV justified ? Dont really understand this close ended fund... because in most open ended fund NAV = unit price..
That is the difference between CEF and OEF. The assets of CEF is made up of cash and quoted shares mainly. Its share price depend on supply and demand, and not based on the share value (NAV).
sigh... 1 more thing, ttb explanation of icap stagnant fund is to go global, so global market is safe? think about it. if it is about 5 - 10 - 20 years from now, anyone can talk anything bro.
clearly ttb is making back door for himself, he is under pressure to perform better than his mouth & paper value. again, don't fool by words via media, u never know what's happen behind the closed door fun.
is it no other option in the market? think about it.
bsngpg, you offend nobody. You have expressed your own opinion. Your opinion is always 忠言, worthy of listening to.
I don't think TTB one is 忠言. I kind of agree that he was using an excuse to mask his under-performance. TTB is not a humble person like you.
Actually it is nothing wrong to admit some mistakes he has made for the under-performance. But he chooses to put down his critics, like what he did to Lexey Partners who tried to do something good for all the shareholders in the last saga.
Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 21, 2013 11:48 AM | Report Abuse
Posted by houseofordos > Oct 21, 2013 11:24 AM | Report Abuse
If the fund's assets are marked to market then is 20% discount to NAV justified ? Dont really understand this close ended fund... because in most open ended fund NAV = unit price..
That is the difference between CEF and OEF. The assets of CEF is made up of cash and quoted shares mainly. Its share price depend on supply and demand, and not based on the share value (NAV).
Is 20% discount reasonable? You tell me.
I would say its not justified. Furthermore, if he s holding a lot of cash now. then the discount is further unjustified since volatility of the NAV is less... Maybe ICAP should just distribute a 20% dividend to even it out :)
house, fully agree with you. Instead of TTB holding my cash, I prefer to have the control of my cash. Don't forget, the cash he holds shareholders have to pay 2-3% in management expense ratio each year.
But again whose interest he is looking after, yours or his? After distributing that dividend to you, he has less asset under management and hence less management fees.
That is why icap never pay dividend until the last one.
ICAP is probably not bound to any min equity exposure rules like most other funds. The up side of that is that more freedom and flexibility. The down side is that it leads to market timing by fund manager which may cause underperforamcne. For funds with min equity exposure, managers are forced to maintain a min allocation of equities, this reduces market timing and leaves the timing to investors themselves while manager focus on staying invested.
The problem with investing in a closed-ended fund is that the fund managers have the power to make all the calls. They do not have to worry about redemption. As long as the funds exceed issue price then the fund managers can virtually stop working and fall asleep. The fund managers still get one % of the fund value when the fund is holding lot of cash or otherwise. Looking at Icap now, at the end of the day, the fund manager will do better than the unit holders.
KCChong, I realised that you talk a lot about the companies you invested in instead of the market outlook, which is consistent with your comments about TTB. Based on what I read from the media, TTB talks a lot of about the economy and outlook, rather than the investments he made except I remembered he said his fund (not ICAP though), invested in Tiffany & Co seeing the demand for luxury goods from China ppl.
I am just curious ... I am sure you read the daily news (?), people have been talking about bubble economy and the crashes. I know you don't believe in "timing the market". But, are you not concern at all? Won't you adjust your portfolio accordingly?
Avocado, let me ask you some questions to your question. 1) Is the market that grossly overvalued now? 2) How is it compared to the crazy second board market in the mid 1990s? 3) How is the market compared to the internet craze in the late 1990s. 4) How is the market compared to the 1987 markets, 1929, etc?
This is what a very famous investor Mark Howard said about macro economic thingy,
“We don’t know what lies ahead in terms of the macro future. Few people if any know more than the consensus about what’s going to happen to the economy, interest rates and market aggregates. Thus, the investor’s time is better spent trying to gain a knowledge advantage regarding ‘the knowable’: industries, companies and securities. The more micro your focus, the great the likelihood you can learn things others don’t.” Focusing on the simplest possible system (an individual company) is the greatest opportunity for an investor since a company is understandable in a way which may reveal a mispriced bet. Howard Marks puts it simply: “We don’t make macro bets.”
Kcchongnz, TTB has been called as a hero and the oracle of Bursa by people? This is something new to me. He is well known and I don't dislike him, but to me, he is just another analyst and fund manager. Not someone I would sit up and trade based on his recommendation. Not the Soros, Buffet type of personality.
Mr Chong, I try to answer your questions to my question:
1) Just because that KLCI is made of the 30 index companies and with P/E of 15-16, doesn't mean that all other companies are overpriced.
2) Ohh, I still remember, when I was a kid back in the 90's, every Chinese new year, my parents reminded me not to wish the aunties & uncles "san nin fai lok" (happy new year in Cantonese), instead I should greet "san nin fai hei" (new year fast rise). It was quite crazy back then, my mom would stay in front of the TV whole day to check share prices (I couldn't remember what was that service called already).
3) During the dot.com era, whenever I read the US market news, it was always which and which internet/tech stock IPO, debut with how many percent increase.
4) After the 87 stock market crash, my dad knew his company is going to sack him, so he left before it happened. After that my dad started his own business with borrowings from my grandparents, we didn't have family trip for many years until mid 90's... I don't know how was it like in the 1929, but people called it the great depression, so it must be really bad.
Oh no ... I think what I replied on Q2 & Q3 sounds a bit like our property market now.
Hey bsngpg, somebody said I was angry with you because you "peca u punya lobang", was I?
Posted by iafx > Oct 21, 2013 04:01 PM | Report Abuse talking about expert: Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 21, 2013 11:42 AM | Report Abuse bsngpg, my statement about 75%-80% of the funds under-performed the market is for the research from the US market. My statement is wrong in the Malaysian context. ... bra ... bra... bar... I guess the Malaysian market is not an efficient market as compared to the US market. see Blog: [转帖] 陳鼎武:美債風險‧馬股漲勢欠穩
Posted by iafx > Oct 21, 2013 04:39 PM | Report Abuse next time copied U.S statement, other investor statement, make sure u understood what is it about, don't wait 4 ppl pica u punya lobang then get angry. hahahaa...
Or was it him who was "angry" with his deep sighing?
Posted by iafx > Oct 21, 2013 11:57 AM | Report Abuse sigh... 1 more thing, ttb explanation of icap stagnant fund is to go global, so global market is safe? think about it. if it is about 5 - 10 - 20 years from now, anyone can talk anything bro. clearly ttb is making back door for himself, he is under pressure to perform better than his mouth & paper value. again, don't fool by words via media, u never know what's happen behind the closed door fun. is it no other option in the market? think about it.
but don't worry about him. Compared with your knowledge, he is really like 小巫見大巫
Fund managers collecting high management fee have the duty to perform, they cannot just collect the fee and not taking any action just because market is weak.
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
bsngpg
2,842 posts
Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-20 17:50 | Report Abuse
我的看法:
他是对的。批评他者只怕是half past six,沒经历过大熊市. 几年後再见真章吧。