Pls add me. Thanks

If the OPR cut, how low can PBbank drop to?

haha...RM8.35 now.
Thanks a lot to those that sold at 7.50 and 7.75 to me. Again, thanks a lot.

Bait set at 7.10, 6.60 and 6.10 for today.

matched some at 7.75

matched at 7.50

TopGlove Preceeding QoQ
Revenue up 37%
Net Profit up 201%

The ASP effect is huge !!

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3057593

The group’s orders are secured up to Jun 2021 and its lead time remains high at 12 months.

https://koonyewyin.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/rhb-report-my_supermax_company-update_20200610_rhb-10858066623398145ee0204f7b69e-2.pdf

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/coronavirus-second-wave

Saw it...thanks freetospeak.
Q1 = 1,381 ton
Q2 = 1,930 ton (excluding Jun)
Assume June = 1000 ton
Q2 = 2,930 ton which is 2.12 times from last quarter.

Coming Aug report for Apr,May + June period will have significant
- increase quantity sold (2.12 times from last quarter)
- increase ASP (whats the avg percentage increase?) from last quarter
- weaker MYR to USD from last quarter

From the chart, Month of May shows 71 shipments.
How do you make up the 71 shipments to 1,264 ton?

For Top Glove, how big is their OBM contributions?

freetospeak yfhew1...our conservative n simple rundown estimation coincide with your bomoh estimation !!! lol

Revenue QTR3 = 447 mil
Cost = 352 mil
Avg. ASP JAN - MAR = USD69
Avg. ASP APR - JUN = USD 107.50
Unit sold = 447/69 = 6478 unit

QTR 4 Sales = 6478 x 107.5 = 696 mill
Cost remain the same since only price increase = 352 mil
PBT = 344 mil
PAT @24% = 261 mil
eps = 20 sen

Sales n profit may b higher since ASP keep increasing.
There might b more sales due to higher qty sales.
Here we assume Qty sold is at max of capacity.
There might be other expenses we miss out.
For safety -20% to 261 mil for safety.
261 x0.8 = 208 mil

Thanks freetospeak on this calculation.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/who-briefing-covid-19-milestone-worsening-globally-asymptomatic-rare/

5 years of 100% tax allowance for local factories

Applicable here?

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/top-supplier-malaysia-sees-no-quick-end-to-shortages-in-us-8-billion-gloves-industry-12803654

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/glove-counters-regain-lost-ground-after-yesterdays-selldown

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/credit-suisse-raises-target-price-top-glove-rm23-expects-record-fy21

http://www.mira.com.my/misc/media_release-04062020.pdf

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/asia/2020-06-04-shortage-of-medical-gloves-to-persist-into-2021-says-top-supplier-malaysia/

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/05/595672/supermax-buys-klang-land-plant-no-16

https://importkey.com/i/maxter-glove-manufacturing-sdn-bhd

https://importkey.com/i/maxter-glove-manufacturing-sdn-bhd

"According to management, some of these orders were priced above US$100 per 1000 pieces, which is more than three times higher than the current blended ASP for the normal orders," Cheah said.

OTB's info via Uncle K's blog

Supermx produces 26 billion rubber gloves a year. 63% is Nitrile gloves, the balance 37% is latex or other gloves. Supermx produces 16.38 billion Nitrile gloves a year (63%)

Assume the selling price of Nitrile glove at USD 0.03 per piece or RM 0.126
Total revenue = 16.38 billion*RM 0.126 = 2.063 billion.

Supermx produces 9.62 billion Latex gloves a year (37%).
Assume the selling price of latex glove at USD 0.02 per piece or RM 0.084
Total revenue = 906.75 million*RM 0.084 = 808.08 million

Grand total revenue = 2.063 billion + 808.08 million = 2.871.96 billion
At 30% margin, PBT = 861.59 million

Assume 20% tax, PAT = 689.27 million
NOS = 1,360 million
EPS = 689.27/1360 = 0.51

If PER = 20, the target price = 10.14.
If PER = 26, the target price = 13.18.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/banks-risk-modification-loss-wa...

Meanwhile, CGS-CIMB estimated that the modification loss would reduce banks’ financial year 2020 (FY20) net profit by 14.4%.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/banks-risk-modification-loss-waiving-additional-hp-interest-%E2%81%A0%E2%80%94-analysts

Meanwhile, CGS-CIMB estimated that the modification loss would reduce banks’ financial year 2020 (FY20) net profit by 14.4%.

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/7153_KOSSAN/pt/AMINVEST/7153_KOSSAN_AMINVEST_2020-05-22_BUY_9.72_Kossan%20Rubber-%20Expecting%20ASP%20to%20improve%20further_-944174013.pdf

Glove demand arising from Covid-19 began to jump from April onwards. This resulted in a supply constraint and subsequently drove selling prices higher. Kossan has received orders close to 10 months ahead of delivery with prices to be finalized 1–2 months prior to delivery.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/glovemaker-kossan-makes-record-profit-revenue-1q

Earning per share up 10.45% (current 5.07 vs last quarter 4.59)

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=209399&name=EA_FR_ATTACHMENTS

Q4 2019 vs Q1 2020
Revenue up 5.73% (578,349 vs 611,465)
Operating profit up 15.81% (74,492 vs 86,272)
Profit after tax up 6% (61,577 vs 65,270)

Profit + EPS more than double from last quarter!!

Current EPS is 5.42
Last EPS was 2.31

Current Profit is 71mil
Last Profit was 30mil

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/another-opr-cut-july-likely-says-dbs-group

7 July OPR Meeting

https://importkey.com/i/hartalega-sdn-bhd

Look at the top right corner for the # of shipments to US by months.
Then, take a look at Jan, Feb and Mar and make your own conclusion.
Dont simply park your money here.

Covid19 extra ordinary demand induced growth will stretch for the entire year 2020.
NGC2.0 capacity growth story will take over from 2021 onwards.
And the positive surprise booster will be the FDA approval on AMG and upcoming US/China trade war.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/677253/good-returns-seen-for-rubber-glove-sector

https://www.mykayaplus.com/malaysias-big-4-glove-companies-growth-story/

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/rhb-research-raises-target-price-top-glove-rm1330-surge-demand-due-covid19

"Top Glove’s lead time has surged to almost one year, which is much higher than the normal range of 1 to 1.5 months."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-14/kossan-rubber-ceo-pandemic-to-boost-glove-demand-by-30-50-video

https://importkey.com/i/hartalega-sdn-bhd
1 X 40'HC CONTAINER has 2100 cases of gloves.

If 1 case is USD 12 and USD to MYR is 4.35

2100 * USD 12 * 4.35 = MYR 109,620. (1 unit of 40'HC container revenue)

https://www.yourglovesource.com/collections/nitrile-medical-gloves
https://dentistgloves.com/collections/gloveon-gloves

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52643682

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52643682

If Q1 EPS = 9.54 (2 times the last quarter EPS)
Total EPS will be 22.52

If PE @ 35 = Price will be RM 7.88
If PE @ 40 = Price will be RM 9.00 <--- heading towards this level now
If PE @ 45 = Price will be RM 10.13
If PE @ 50 = Price will be RM 11.26

If Q4 EPS = 10.79
Whole FY20 total EPS will be 20.29.

If PE @ 45 = Price will be RM 9.13
If PE @ 50 = Price will be RM 10.14 <--- heading towards this level now
If PE @ 55 = Price will be RM 11.16
If PE @ 60 = Price will be RM 12.17

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070114/what-formula-calculating-earnings-share-eps.asp

You can refer to the above link for the PE calculation and EPS.

On Harta's EPS, you can refer to the menu 'Research -> Financial' tab from i3investors here.

If Q4 EPS = 10.79
Whole FY20 total EPS will be 20.29.

If PE @ 45 = Price will be RM 9.13
If PE @ 50 = Price will be RM 10.14
If PE @ 55 = Price will be RM 11.16
If PE @ 60 = Price will be RM 12.17

Lets look at Riverstone Quarterly report for period (Jan,Feb,Mar)
http://riverstone.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20200511_194140_AP4_6PDW9CQ2ZY35G0TR.1.pdf

http://riverstone.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20200225_171626_AP4_FOM9VPLLCSSP3CWG.1.pdf

Revenue QoQ jump 8.5% = RM 279.4mil (last Q4 was RM 257.4mil)
Net Profit based on 45% = RM 46.6mil (last Q4 was RM 32mil)

Is my calculation correct?
Net Profit for the period Jan,Feb and Mar for Riverstone jumped to 45%!!

i dont think they are sharks/big player....they are likely retail like us and want to spread fears and join us to own Kossan.

Wah,,,the 'fire' at Kossan factory area (according to bad + unverified gossip) is really making it a hot stock today. Haha.

https://importkey.com/i/kossan-latex-industries-m-sdn-bhd

https://importkey.com/i/hartalega-sdn-bhd

https://importkey.com/i/top-glove-sdn-bhd

https://importkey.com/i/supermax-glove-manufacturing-s-b

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebsOR8JZnrk

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/05/590048/four-banks-will-be-negative-due-highest-hp-loans-exposure

Public Bank has the highest exposure with HP loans making up 15.7 per cent or RM51.77 billion of its total outstanding loans as at end-2019.

If we take Q4 Rev to be 1350M,,,then...hmmm.....
Lets see,,,lets see..

Back to these calculations....

Q4 estimation. For 01Jan to 31Mar period.
Revenue QoQ jump 15% = RM 916mil (last Q2 to Q3 revenue jump was 12.3%)
Net Profit based on 16% = RM 146mil (Q3 was 15.3% at RM 121mil)
EPS = 4.3

Whole Year EPS = 2.81 + 3.09 + 3.60 + 4.3 = 13.8
@ 7.41 with EPS of 13.8, PE will be 54

If back to PE 60 with EPS of 13.8, Price will be RM8.28 (an upside of RM0.87 or 12%)