@Supersinginvestor, you know, Pfizer said they are not sure if people immunized can still transmit virus or not. PPE still needed.

@Supersinginvestor, I wonder why the first nurse giving the first vaccine jab in US yesterday wearing gloves, and diplaying a box of gloves in front of the cameras. Think about it.

@supersinginvestor, go to Singapore and ask doctors and nurses around in their hospitals, gloves must be used for vaccination.

@supersinginvestor, please read carefully, all 'existing' mutations and all variant's they have seen, not future mutations and did not mention the mutations in England found just a day ago. I've read this article since it was published. Even Pfizer boss doesn't dare to take the vaccine himself.

@glovefinish, agreed partially of what you said. But forum is a place to exchange ideas and thoughts. So just let it be.

@supersinginvestor Lol you're claiming something even Pfizer doesn't dare to.

@Supersinginvestor, there're still many questions left unanswered by Pfizer and needs further data to justify. Howcome it seemed you're more knowledgeable than Pfizer? If you have source of your claim, please share it here.

Increase in nitrile butadiene will start to subside by end 2021 and new capacity starts supplying the raw material. Topglove boss already confirmed this. I believe this is what JPM didn't tell you.

Swagger855, I suggest if you read their analyst's briefing slides, you may find that the ASP captured in their QR now is only the begining. The past 6 months delivery ended Sep was mainly delivering the sales till Apr/May, which the ASP then was starting to increase. The higher ASP since then was only starting to deliver from Sep/Oct. Take Apr and May price to be the normalized ASP, it will guarantee them at least 400-600M every QR after 2022, not inluding the additional capacity. Perhaps you can also trace the selling price at https://us.vwr.com/store/catalog/product.jsp?product_id=13688249
To confirm if they indeed increase their ASP over time.

I'm not sure if you've heard Harta and TG bosses mentioned demand outstrips supplies in years to come at least for another 2-3 years. Even if ASP normalized, it would be back to pre-covid price. And Super's ASP is different as they are selling to end users, the margin will still be huge compared to OEM producers, and by 2021 there's another nearly 10B capacity finishing up. It'll get closer to what Harta has right now.

Swagger855, please elaborate more on your red flag issue on the accounting. I'm from trading sector, thus understand that cross month transaction for some potential revenue to not able to be captured is perfectly normal. For example, goods shipped by end of the month on DAP terms arriving early next month may not be captured by month end closing, as ownership of goods and liability still not transferred yet. I believe you have ignored their OBM business model to direct compare with TG and Harta.

Please check out news from various sources, gloves are used for vaccination in many countries, some may not make it mandatory, but vaccination practice will definitely increase the use of gloves tremendously. If you have friends in Singapore medical line you may verify this. Gloves are mandatory items during vaccination overthere.

Swagger855, I think u don't understand what I mean. Designing a vaccine could be fast, but manufacturing, delivering and inoculating it to the whole population for herd immunity is going to be very slow, especially when the capacity is that low. If the current vaccine cannot defend against new strain, that's gonna be a big issue.

We don't know if the vaccine works for newly mutation virus variant. If it doesn't, it's going to be a big problem, because the whole population needs another jab again. Flu people can ignore, COVID 19 can't.

@swagger855, current vaccine's production capacity is already a big question mark, what more if it can't handle new mutation currently and needs an update, till when only herd immunity can be reached? 2 years, 3 years? Till then gloves demand will remain exceptionally high, because the disease is more deadly than flu.

Moreover, even if vaccines out there work well, the production capacity will not be enoughfor the world to achieve herd immunity next year. Pfizer only has 1B doses for 500M ppl, and no intention to share it's IP. Moderna only has 100M doses capacity for 50M people. Calculate yourself, you'll need 70-80% population to develop antibody for herd immunity. Plus those people who rejects vaccine.......

Wallstreetrookie, if vaccines development could really be done in such a speedy way without issues, why is there still lengthy protocol for vaccines development? The goal post has been moved this time due to political pressure. There are still so much data unavailable at this point of time when EMU is authorized, especially of mid to long term side effects and safety of vaccines which only real time data could justify.

Wallstreetrookie, you are probably wrong on this. Although OSHA may not suggest mandatory use of gloves in vaccination, some countries do enforce the use of gloves during vaccination espcially for highly infectious desease, such as Singapore. Still a significant number of nurses in the west using gloves during vaccination, if they have stock. The problem with them now is they don't have enough stock.of gloves. If make it mandatory, then mass vaccination will not be able to carry out.

@FTS sifu
In JPM's report, they don't dare to touch SPMX because they know SPMX is having the strongest cash position at almost >3B now. Who short it who lose.

JPM has 9.8%of Topglove and over 6% Harta in their portfolio. Let see if these numbers increase or decrease after 31st Dec, then you'll know if they are spoofing or walk the talk. If they really think the tp is 50% of current price, they should have sold at least 50% of their holdings if not all.

What is more overvalued is the banking sector. Please be aware of it as there is no strong fundamental to support their current valuation.

@glovefinish, the anticipation could be a false hope also. Only because it was suppressed by negative news for too long, the spark of hope is stronger at the moment.

mobbs68, I hope everything turned out smoothly without any problems. if not it's going to be disastrous. For the sake of mankind, hope they are doing the right thing.

@see2sea i'd be delighted to see him instills confidence to investors.

Dannyfyl88, first we need to ask ourself, does bank's business really going back to pre-covid? is job data false? is the national economic data false? are we seeing business all returning to pre-covid in the next 6 months time?

@CharlesT, because the market doesn't understand the meaning of structural change of gloves demand. they are still thinking in the same old way, thus giving a valuation based on the same old way.

@Glovefinish, the thing is, supermax is already trading at a price much much lower than their prospect post-covid. When a stock is oversold, it's an opportunity. Even with current QR it's single digit PE. Market would soon realize that, it's all sentiment created due to vaccine, and it has been brewing for a long time. Once this sentiment is over, the strong re-bounce is unstoppable.
Take your own risks counting on recovery themes, and run when the time is right for you, the rally will not be sustainable without solid earnings (full recovery will only be optimistically happening in 2 years time)

Order book is oversold, with deposit received. Thus the profit is locked in and easily calculated.

@Glovefinish, I believe you've not calculated the next few QR's potential PAT. Peak will likely to reach 50x of PAT pre-covid. Ok take that as peak which is not sustainable for long term, which it will drop to current PAT which is around 500 - 700M. That is already 20x precovid. So it is safe to say that market has overreacted this time. Ignoring the sustainable gain in the future.

glovefinish, the thing is, it is not the peak yet, and it's still far from it. the ASP now will only be reflected in QR a year later when the goods are delivered.

Share price and business health could be disconnected sometimes. Look at AAX, debt more than asset share price can still up few fold. But, is it sustainable? When market realize the earnings of SPMX is going to be sustainable for a long time, the rally will be back. Ultimately, money goes to companies which can delivery results and earnings.

@Russel, I got you. I think this narrative will start after all in-the-money CW expired.

Habisglove. But FPE also need to see depend on what base right? Market has clearly over reacted.

Intco China again ATH today. Which shows our stock market disconnection to what is actually happening in the world.

Look at current US's stock pile of gloves. Only 64M pieces. Say if they are testing 500K people a day, means 1M gloves gone in a day. Now with vaccination, say if they were to inoculate 100K ppl in a day, half with gloves will add on to the burden of gloves stock.

@Godhand, with USD60/1000 is good enough for SPMX to earn at least 400M/qtr PAT consistently, with their streamlined distribution system OBMX. Current share
price is trading below that profit.

Market is irrational, it treated these real money earned as joss paper. Smart investor knows these are real money that they are earning and collect more when market does not recognize it.

People conveniently ignored the cash that gloves companies are bringing in, and chasing for those unwarranted earnings projections in vaccine related counters. Market could be blind some times.

She threw away the gloves immediately after the injection.

It's totally a non-issue. Mercator up 7% despite the first vaccination occurs 5/6 hours ago.

It wouldn't have made its way here if it's a goreng counter. Topglov back then was also at this stage similarly to Supermax right now, is it a goreng counter like what you said? A goreng counter to have made its way here >350 times since IPO?

@Biliskecil, perhaps you've forgotten, Supermax will be one of the bluechips soon. From 23rd Dec.

@Agjl, I think not really. Intco Medical China is now very close to their ATH...

After the news saying government not engaging 3rd party for vaccine and no vaccine can start trial without approval will cause sleepless night tonight for many who bought goreng vaccine counters.

Now that recovery theme is already hitting higher price, those holding it is trying to lure glove holders to switch so they could do the dumping. The fundamentals are weak for many recovery themes right now. The price can't hold longer as no earning to sustain it.

007007, your statement is seriously flawed. TG issue is mainly the stop work order/EMCO and current sentiment. Nothing to do with ASP, the ASP is not peaked yet, which means the stock price has not value at peak ASP.

@Jack Khan, SPMX's earning is solid and real, not speculative. Supermax was undervalue in the past that's why the 1100% (it's earning is much higher than this %), and it's compared to a lower base than any other peers. Look into profit it has the highest EPS and it's going score even higher in at least 6 qtrs ahead, since the ASP now will only reflect a year later (their capacity oversold for 12 months). People who cut lost now will have to chase high later.

our market is too easily moved by unwarranted news, rumours but not looking into actual fact. The fact is glove counters will be bringing in tonnes of cash back home in 2021 and 2022, which we are now still in 2020. And this tonnes of cash will help generating more and more tonnes of cash years after years, it will be re-invested to bring more return.

If vaccines were to be the end of gloves, China Intco should be the one dropping the most as China is also producing vaccines, with good trial results. But instead. gloves stock is shooting even higher.

It's uptrend all the way since beginning of the year. but for ours, too many immature investors unable to see the fundamentals of a good company, only chasing on news. We have a longer history than China's stock market, but we are seemed to be progressing slower and now become less mature than China's. How sad is this.