@Sslee, there was a fire incident in one of the 2 turbines from Q4 21.
Assume 1 turbine down for 1 month, then 34m/5*6 = 41m. Which is very close to DK's calculation.

Source - Affin Hwang
Improvement in associate profit as maintenance work is completed
The associate profit has recovered by 19% qoq, as the share of associate profit from
the power plant has increased to RM33.9m in 1Q22 from RM28.6m in 4Q21, mainly
driven by lower maintenance costs incurred as most of the work was completed in
4Q21. We believe that there is still potential upside to earnings, given that it is still
below the RM37.5m-RM43.4m/Q achieved in 2021. The improvement yoy was
mainly due to the second unit of the boiler, which only started contributing in January
2021. Given the improved stability of the power plant, management remains
confident that they would start receiving dividends from its associate soon, and would
also likely announce its maiden dividend to Jaks’ shareholders in 2022.
Continue working to turn around domestic operations
We believe that the narrowed PBT for its property investment operation to RM10.2m from
RM20.8m was mainly due to better cost management as the overall revenue for the
segment has only increased by less than RM0.5m for the quarter. We are expecting
stronger revenue (lower losses) in the coming quarter, due to the improved footfall for the
Evolve Concept City Mall (a huge portion of its rental is based on percentage of sales),
and the improved occupancy rate at its Pacific Star Business Hub. As of end of the quarter,
occupancy rates for the properties are at 67% and 31% respectively.
Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of RM0.62
We have kept our earnings forecasts unchanged, given that the performance was within
our expectations. We also retain our BUY call and keep our TP unchanged at RM0.62,
based on a 20% discount to RNAV. We reiterate our BUY rating as we remain optimistic
as the potential maiden dividend in 2022 could be the re-rating catalyst. Downside
risk: higher-than-expected losses from its property investment segment.

it has nothing to do with serbadk la.

@ansonliew just in case you didn't know. DK actually informed all to consider taking profit in Feb.

Ironshirt, so you admitted you don't talk based on facts.

@Blee, if hydrogen could be a major feedstock in power plant, then there's valid reason to believe that hydrogen fuel car will outsell EV in the next 20 years. Why use electricity generated by hydrogen fuel but not using hydrogen fuel directly instead. Am I right?
But then again, since BOT was signed for 25 years, no matter what kind of energy evolves out there, the profit is more or less guaranteed.

@Sslee, JHDP was granted tax free for first 5 years, 5% tax the subsequent 7 years and 10% for the remaining of the BOT contract years. Could you please clarify again your statement of Jaks needs to pay 25% Vietnam corporate tax?

Blee, the new technology has not been proven of large scale and consistent power generation. In those industries especially chip-makers etc, that are critical to the economy and power intensive, will not take the risk, until it's proven to be better than current way of electricity supply.

I3lurker, why Vietnamese government agreed on such terms to allow coal cost pass through? Logically thinking, they want the power plant to run continuously, and not stopping due to coal price hike. Unless there is redundant electricity being generated, or else EVN will keep buying whatever amount of kWh generated by JHDP.

Ivalau, cost can be passed through to EVN.

Cash in hand is around 1.43, if share price drops to 0.65, then it's really a no-brainer to scoop as many shares as you can. Demand of gloves will only be growing in the future.

@melanie, market not yet factor in lower ASP?

Drug safety will be an even more scrutinized issue compared to vaccine. It will be a bigger issue that vaccine if not managed properly.

@glovefinish, there's no conflict between gloves and Genting. There's no need for you to bash gloves so hard just because you own shares from recovery themes.

One should embrace the vaccine, without it could be a detrimental disaster for mankind, I agree with glovefinish in this perspective. We hope gloves prosper, but not at the expense of creating vaccine hesitancy.

@glovefinish, I'm not saying that price will remain at current elevated position, it's impossible as it will come down and normalized gradually. Thailand is specialized in latex glove and it will take a long time for its nitrile capacity to compete with us. China is taking the lead in rectifying climate change issue and will soon need to restrict coal energy, that would mean higher cost for their gloves makers who are currently heavily relying on coal energy. Malaysia still have a very strong competitive edge. My confidence not from elsewhere, but from all the gloves bosses who showed strong confidence of Malaysian gloves. Yes, short to mid term share price might fluctuate due to market noises. But ultimately who knows the market better? the bosses or the analysts? Who are the ones that work on the ground and who are the ones just plucking numbers and fill in the blanks?

Before HIV, even the US barely used gloves. Now that the pandemic hits every continent, it will create new market especially 3rd world countries medical lines and developed countries service lines.

Firstly, Supermax will be most likely in the game, as all current US players' announced expansion will not even be able to fulfil even 10% of US needs, like Showa gloves etc. Unless some unannounced players come into the game but very unlikely. Secondly, hygiene awaress increased will help open up other untapped markets. A 10% organic growth + pandemic induced usage will sustain the business very well.

Glove was never commonly used by general public. Even during the pandemic. It's mainly for medical sector, service lines, labs, industrial and so on. The increase will come from medical sector and service lines where public hygiene awareness increases. In 2020, gloves consumption only increased around 30%, already enough to tripple the ASP.

There's no need to worry about Malaysia plants. History proved gloves usage not only sustained well but increased everytime after a pandemic. There was never a single year in the past 30 years with negative gloves usage growth. Some more US only targets to make 50% of of its medical gloves consumption which is already an extremely challenging target, there're still many other sectors in the US required gloves as well.

U know it well. Part of the supply will come from Supermax.

Good for Israel to achieve herd immunity and reopening of the economy. Now that the hospital will restart all postponed treatments, surgery and diagnosis. And they will have to compete with business especially service lines, restaurants and airlines to buy gloves, as hygiene awareness increases.

Ykloh, so you are suggesting to get rid of all single use PPE? Don't compare it with plastic bags which has nothing to do with human lives.

Gloves business has been helping mankind fighting against diseases. From HIV to COVID. Imagine how many front liners would die these 30 years without gloves. Thus you are investing in an ethical business.

The intrinsic value of gloves business does not need to be dependent entirely on current covid situation, as the surge is short term. It's depending on the hygiene awareness after each pandemic. gloves usage boosted after each pandemic in the past, and the consumption sustained at another higher level each time. That's how gloves companies grew >200-300 times since listing.

How do the ikanbilis with huge borrowing compete with giants sitting on billions of cash post covid? Think about it and make your own judgement.

Just a mere USD5/ctn profit (as opposed to current USD50/ctn profit) could sustain current SPMX share price after 2022. As all experts already mentioned, including famous research house, price of gloves will sustain around OEM price USD30-40/ctn post covid. How difficult it is to get profit > USD5 post covid? When ASP drops, new comers will face cost issue due to lower efficiency, high interest cost due to high borrowing to build plants with all spot order raw materials, ceramic molds, dipping machines and OEM competition and will eventually being forced out of the market, the orders will be fulfilled by existing players and will create another supply constraint to sustain post covid gloves price. Existing players all with excellent cash on hand will even have tens of millions of extra interest income.

Glovefinish has made many newbies lost their hard earned money. full of sin.

@gohkimhock, use some common sense please. If the world wants to buy China gloves, they would have done it long time ago. why now? and the world biggest gloves markets already mentioned they wanted to diversify PPE sources away from China, don't you know that? why risk themselves concentrate on Chinese produce when there is a good alternative?

Brian3381, I'm not sure if you are a glove user, but I am. You'll definitely feel frustrated if you constantly have to work with gloves that are easily torn, too thick, inflexible. and come with strong chenical smell. And Malaysian gloves had been proven to be able to exceed market's expectations.

Please, @gohkimhock, please read Intco's latest QR, their gloves are selling at ASP USD150, and they are the largest glove maker in China. Even topglove's spot price is lower than this.

If China is selling cheap, how did they achieve higher margin/1000pcs than Malaysian's. Use some common sense please.

Of course if you check vinyl gloves to nitrile glove vinyl is far cheaper. U have to check reputable source price like Intco or bluesail.

@Gohkimhock, you sure China glove is cheaper? Their ASP is higher do you know that?

Made in Malaysia, cost USD18/ctn, sell USD20/ctn to OEM middleman. Made in US, cost USD30/ctn sell USD35 to retailler or USD45 to hospitals directly. Which one is earning more?

burstglove, supermax will reinvest the money earned in the US back to US itself, so no action will be taken against supermax.

Simply speaking, all Big 4 gloves companies grew much stronger after each pandemic in the past 20 years. Never had anyone of them returning to pre-pandemic state, not to mention the current pandemic is the widest spread in a century. So do you still think it's going back to pre-pandemic level?

@glovefinish, it's not only about supermx. it's about the whole glove segment being targeted. You know talking down is always easier than talking up, because human nature is afraid of losing. If media targets Genting to talk it down for a week, it'll be worse than gloves.

When IBs starts using sentiment as an excuse for a downgrade, you know there's something fishy.

@glovefinish, you never heard of IBs summoned because of share price manipulation?

You alone may not have the power. you know the sharks don't employ just 1 person. When they launched attack, it's from all angles. I'm just commenting on your obvious intention.

anyway manipulation is possible in short term. but in the longer run, fundamental prevails.

there are many employed and tipped by the sharks to spread fear on gloves, and sadly they are quite successful this round.

it's quite obvious that the share price now is heavily manipulated. It's nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company and its future prospect. Who knows the gloves market better, the analysts or the bosses whose rice bowl depend on the industry.

I'm not attacking glovefinish, just wondering it keep asking to show solid data to prove future prospect, but at the same time its argument based on fake data.

Also, you know Frost & Sullivan's research is based on manufacturing selling price, which is mainly OEM. Spmx has a different approach in their distribution channel as in OBM, so why mix them up?

@glovefinish, of course time will tell. Just that I don't understand why the need to keep providing fake/false information, like what this Mr. Ooi is telling. I would be happy if he tells fact, no matter he's on short or long position.

@glovefinish, you know that's the problem when you listen to Mr. Ooi Kok Hwa. In AEC interview, he mentioned big 4 gloves companies typically sold gloves below cost price to fight for market share after each pandemic in the past, which implied they incurred loss (selling below cost). But, please tell me which of the big 4 companies incurred lost in their financial quarters since IPO? None of them! His view is questionable and to me no credibility at all since he posted fake information during that interview.

@glovefinish, The US market expansion details are not released yet, thus not taken into account the potential profit generated there into my share price estimation. It's kinda weird when you say it's not possible because downward selling pressure is huge. But if everyone sees the opportunity ahead, will they still sell? How about Genting, it's coming down from pre-covid RM8-9, and it's fundamental is still eroding, no downward selling pressure?

@glovefinish, do you have realistic official data to support your claim that gloves will be oversupply post covid? it's based on speculation as well right? Big 4 had been expanding aggressively for 20 years since IPO, past 10 years demand CAGR 10% all real facts, much higher than human population growth, but there was no oversupply issue as well. Historically, average forward PE increased after each pandemic. Don't forget that the financial health and fundamentals of each gloves companies are now, and will continue to be very very much healthier than pre-covid times (high net cash now vs high debt then).