@glovefinish, I wonder why you always talked about super high profit since now the investors had reacted and look towards post Covid. As you said, investors must be forward looking. At post covid normalized profit of USD10/1000pcs, as opposed to current USD45/1000pcs profit, SPMX is able to generate 1.8B annual profit after expansion plan completes post Covid 2022. When profit normalized, PE also will normalized, EPS at all time mean PE 15 the price will be >RM10/share. That's excluding cash on hand and US contract.

There's RM1.41/share worth of cash in the share price. If stock fall below 3, that means the value of the company less cash is effectively RM1.61/share. Is it possible given ASP still
at elevated level? US cases still at Sep/Oct level in which ASP then was already very high. Global supply didn't increase much since then and global cases is seeing resurging trend.

@gohkimhock, when glove price was suppressed in the past, people said it's supply and demand effect, now supply is tight price up yoi said it's profiteering on others misfortune. How could you be so unfair? Chips/tech items also price up due to demand is high, are they considered as profiteering on others misfortune as well?

Obviously cases dropped due to very strict lock down. Not vaccine, due to still low inoculation rate.

@maxsuper by the time ASP dropped to lower level super already has more than double of current capacity, and probably with net cash >100B.

Meet face to face with subject matter expert means you'll be an expert as well? Lol...

@germfinder888, who's the subject matter expert here, the IB or the glove makers? Who would know the market better? Think about it.

Biliskecil, Hengyuan, Dayang etc did not have the corresponding earnings to support their share price hype that time, they did not have strong cash flow and not net cash as well. The comparison is invalid. If you want to compare sentiment it's fine, but not their fundamentals. Btw, Spmx ASP is around USD84, not USD200. If it drops to USD50, with the increase of capacity, earnings will likely be sustain for a long time given it's OBM business gaining strong traction. Net cash on hand 37B is already worth RM1.36/share, share price drops to Rm1.50? Then must sailang buy edi.

whoever is guessing that Supermax's US plant will incur loss in the future does not understand OBM business. Pre-covid nitrile gloves price in the US is already ~USD90/carton. The targeted customers are direct end-users, and US government's policy will be supporting local PPE manufacturers post covid. How to incur loss?

@glovefinish, why are you so concerned? There are so many so called recovery theme stocks despite all the good news of vaccines, MCO 2.0 3.0 without closing down of economies, recovery in sight, but share price still not moving as well other than technology counters which are following gloves trajectory soon. The sentiments should be on their side but share price still sideways. So you are suggesting to put money in FD?

@Groundzero is a new account created today to attack gloves. Obviously.
Anyway, I'm sure he's smarter than all the gloves bosses who spent hundreds of million if not billion to SBB at higher current price without knowing their shares are worthless according to @groundzero.

@glovefinish, when spmx was below 6 you were already asking people to sell. Now you are saying those buying low have capital gain now. Are you slapping your own face? You are causing people to lose money when you asked them to cut loss at way lower price. Very unethical, and despicable.

@InvestMalaysia, governments around the world are facing challenges containing pandemic an the richer ones would not want the same mistake to repeat again, too disruptive. PPE business will be restructured and favour localized manufacturing to mitigate risks of short supply. Think about it.

@InvestMalaysia, high tech or not it doesn't matter. When come to the time of shortage, users are willing to pay premium to secure supply. There must be some sort of secured procurement contract before Supermax ever considered to build a factory there in the US. There are only a handful of companies in high tech field, but not only them making good money right?

Why are they still holding Topglove 10% in their portfolio while saying it's over value?

JPM on one hand says there no gauge to confirm the ASP 2 years later. On the other hand says ASP will drop to pre-covid level. what gauge are they using? can anyone still believe them?

If they seriously think there's no upside, they should have shorted it 99 today right? Short Selling should be done when price is high not low right? There's no short volume today wor.

@glovefinish, please comment on Kenanga's report of plenty of upside for gloves.

Just remember, Intco is ATH today, Riverstone green today, all doing the same business as our Big 4. JPM talked down TG but their portfolio still 10% TG, the largest position in their portfolio. Our market is immature compared to Singapore and China thus easily manipulated by IBs with them control over the news flow. People like glovefinish/ teamrocket could be one of them who might have collected more tickets when price is down. Whether to hold or not is your decision, but please remember, only Malaysia glove is being talked down, everywhere else is still at high level.

Riverstone already up almost 40% since a month ago. Tell us what is so different Riverstone from big 4? Is it merely because we are in Bursa full of investors like @glovefinish? IBs are behind the scene in Bursa creating fear. Hold longer than them you'll win big.

Malaysians don't know how to value a good company. China has now surpassed Malaysia in terms of investor's knowledge and maturity.

wow!

IB also has their cut loss rule. Who knows when they will cut loss by buying back?
I think they also did not know Topglove would come out with 70% payout after all the huge shorting right?

@glovefinish, short selling was not done during the reversal from the peak. It was done at 50% of that peak. Let's see what happens next. Not all trapped retailers will sell their tickets when price reverse upwards reaching their buying price. When price is upward trending again, their mentality will change from eager to sell to hold wait and see, then chase high again.

Mass shorting only started after an excellent fundamental company share price dropped to half of ATH, I seriously think their timing wasn't right. Let's see if I'm right.

@kltower, actually shorting also need timing one, if they time it wrongly, after shorting share price not moving down, then they will have to start panic buying to recover loss already, and that will push the price even higher. Let's see what happens next. like today, Supermax has 4M shares shorted, and VWAP is RM5.85, Opening price was 5.95, closing price was RM5.86, I think at least half of the shorties today already seeing paper-loss.

I believe they have shorted at the wrong timing which share price already 50% from peak, as all sentiment suppressing news for gloves are almost out and reversal is imminent.

@kltower, at least until yesterday, it seemed that the shorties have not bought back their shorted shares yet, both for TG and SPMX. If now comes uptrend reversal, the shorties will panic buy and push the shares upwards.

@kltower, yes, if you scroll that down you'll see the last 2 days data as well. It's only a record of that trading day reported. Whether there's any outstanding position of shortselling, you'll need to click another file which is Net Short Selling Position, which is lagged by a day.

@kltower, I think the figures you've mentioned is the day trade value. Whether is it bought back need to refer to tmr's net shortsell data.

China market is more rational than us currently. Intco another ATH today. So hang on there, things will get better.

@glovefinish, you know what, without gloves, there will be more casualties especially the frontliners who are fighting hard for all of us. Gloves is one of the key protective gears, it has never been more important than now and in the future as well.

warrenG, this data is only for US market. shipment varies every month due to production allocation and ration to each country. Please don't mislead the others. When gloves is in scarcity right now, and vaccination increases gloves usage tremendously, how do you deduce gloves ASP down? not logical at all!

Look at Glovefinish/habisglove. they are all syndicates behind the scene to spread fear. Look at their comment history, only 1 counter they are attacking, it's an organized assault in which they open specific accounts to target specific counters. think about it, why glovefinish/habisglove never talked at TG/Harta/Kossan and any other gloves forum? they have their colleagues there taking care for them. so retailers beware!

Despite many vaccine news over the weekends and long holidays, glove players Listed in Singapore, Thailand, China and Australia all not affected. Intco China All Time High, Australia Ansell and Singapore Riverstone Green, Thailand Sri Trang only marginal slide. You know who's playing behind the scene now in Bursa. If you let go your ticket, you are eaten by Sharks and there's no way back.

Lock down is not good for gloves as well. Look back 18th Mar, all gloves down. The problem is people don't want lock down and at the same time don't follow SOP. U go warung and see. Another crisis is brewing.

@glovefinish, time will tell who's right and who's wrong. I believe the boss has much better business sense than ordinary public members and retail investors. We may not see what he sees.

1 key question. If you are the boss of a glove company, and oversupply is coming it's way next year or the year after hitting hard on your ASP. Will you still expand the production in a vigorous way pouring in billions for the dipping lines, picking up a stone to throw at your own feet?
At least I think it is very very unlikely.

@Moneymakers 2022/23, nobody is sure. Market is pricing in the news flow, but it doesn't mean the news flow is always correct.
Market is only able to make assumptions, because how much ASP will drop, how much ASP will finally plateau, and how long it will sustain, market is unsure and no one can confirm. Gloves bosses gave their best prediction based on their experiences, maybe now market does not buy it. But if it's proven right, then the rally will start again. Depends on who you trust, the bosses who work on the ground or analysts plucking data from imagination.
Currently the market trust the news flow, but reversal cound come anytime when market found reality doesn't tally.
The vaccination speed may fall short of expectations like in the US. The duration of protection is unknown. % of Vaccines uptake by the public is unknown.
Potential of vaccine escape is unknown as infections remain high that could lead to higher opportunity of mutation and adaptability of virus towards current antibodies. Too many uncertainties.

Let's be fair, we've seen pictures of vaccination activities going on with AND without gloves. Let's assume 50% for both, 5B people to get vaccination for 2 shots means (5Bx2x2) x50% = 10B additional gloves required for next 2 years of vaccination activities assuming no re-inoculation needed.
This add more stress to the already extremely tight supply and overbooked capacity. Economy activity recovers with pandamic still around means more gloves are needed in may sectors especially hospitality, tourism, services which no gloves were used pre-pandemic. ASP is not going to come down soon, it'll plateau at a high level for an extended period of time and soft landing on normalized price.
By then, Supermax capacity will double and OBM model is much stronger than now, ASP normalizing will not have a huge impact for Supermax, instead, high profit will be able to sustain. Gloves are no longer a cheap product like before. People had taken the important role of gloves for granted for so many years until they see the significance and importance of it in the disastrous pandemic not seen before even for the older generation. It's never gonna be the same again in the future.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/01/02/glove-makers-in-for-a-good-run-this-year

@Moneymakers, you know not all high risk groups are old people. Some are young frontliners with bright futures, they should be given a choice. I just wonder, why these vaccine pharma companies indemnify themselves from any potential shortcomings with vaccine injections, don't you think this is something very wrong if they are so confident with the safety of their very own vaccines?
Anyway, what I'm trying to say is, the regulators are in despair right now, so they moved the goal post to approve the vaccine. And this also gives an excuse to the anti-vaxxers to talk down vaccines.

@Moneymakers, with known side effects, people can choose.
But now the problem is long term side effect is unknown. No data to show. The basis of science is data. That's why all vaccine companies need indemnity clause to protect themselves.

Moneymakers
1 key issue for Astrazeneca vaccine is, it uses existing technology but did not go through the full process of approval which all existing vaccines needed to. Please name any other similar vaccine that went through such fast track approval route. Remember Pandemrix from GSK.

@Moneymakers
1) Price will gradually go upwards after current turbulence settles down. Keyword: structural change in glove consumption and supply chain.
2) Gloves are not only used to handle high risk group, but all groups. Even with groups vaccinated, gloves will still be used with all types of medical treatment.
3) still not enough to reach even half of herd immunity needs. More infections means higher possibility of mutations.

Price will normalize post Covid, it will be a soft landing, and certainly at a higher than pre-covid level due to supply demand dynamic. Supply will not be able to catch up the demand for an extended period of time, especially right after Covid, all governments will focus on healthcare PPE stockpile stronger than before. New comers starts small and does not have the same cash power to add production lines as fast as big as the big players.

@True, that's why we need to wait patiently. Market could've priced a company mistakenly, and it's quite often doing this to undervalued companies, we just need to wait till the real value being reflected on its share price.

@Staedy, PE is one of the good indicator. But it's also related to the prospect of how investors value the sustainability of the profit. So use it wisely but not depending on it solely.

@staedy, IB has their own agenda. A company with excellent value will finally have their share price reflecting the real value.

Investors don't believe their prospect doesn't mean the prospect won't happen. It's just a matter of believe when comes to investment, it's emotional, irrational some times. But when finally the least expected thing really happened, it'll skyrocket.

@Keyman188,
Hartalega stands out among the glove stocks, according to Maybank IB, due to lower oversupply risk in the nitrile space considering the limited supply of raw material, namely nitrile-butadiene rubber (NBR).
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Experts normally look at the back mirror not the future.
Supermax has secured all NBR needs for it's expansion, according to UOB KayHian's analysis. So there is no difference. So, they have confirm there'll be no oversupply of NBR gloves, means TG and SPMX all will benefit from this.