B10 means 10% of CPO was blended with diesel. For 1 tonnes of biodiesel 100kg of CPO was used!

By the way calling me stupid won't change the fact that investing in Xingquan is a big mistake!

Warren Buffett - The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.

I believe this should be applied to Xing Quan!

Well it is L not I! I am not hiding myself it is a short form of my name! I am pretty sure my friends and family will know it is me when they saw my id!

Lol people are labeling Mr Koon as Warren Buffett of Malaysia but as far as I know he is a very humble and humor old man despite his tract record of beating everyone in the last 58 years. But i can only see the arrogance of Mr Koon since his Jaya Tiasa article was posted in Dali's blog!

All Mr Koon's personal attacks on me is the best evidence of his arrogance! Since the first article on Jaya Tiasa he had labelled retail investors as short sighted! He keep on asking others to show their result and follow his strategy to success! Moreover now he is labelling other as a failure and must follow him to be successful. I believe it is a shame for Warren when his name was used on an arrogant old man. Warren is not only well known as the greatest investor but also for his humble and humor!

I had tried to value TSH, Bumitama, First Resources to compare with Jaya Tiasa by using Mr Koon's EV/hectare and it show Jtiasa is the most expensive counters and we should go for TSH. All the three counters have large tract of unplanted land which can be translated to future growth prospect and their yield are much better than jtiasa. Moreover First Resources even have downstream refining and biodiesel capacity. They are all free since the method only take the landbank into calculation!

I must clarified that I am opposing this method as the land price paid previously might be overpaid and it doesn't take into account the quality of the land. I believe a counter should be valued on free cash flow or p/e rather than their liquidation value.

Good luck for those who are dreaming that Tan Sri Tiong Hiew King will bail them out by buying over Jtiasa at a hefty price tag!

By the way if following tycoon is a good way to invest than all of us should stop doing research and just follow all the gurus like Warren or Soros!

Ouch I forget to mention that even though Warren is a superb investor but he had yet to recover his Conoco's cost.

vinext must examine your old tract record to see how well you have performed. With due respect to you, judging from the statement you made, you cannot be a good investor and you need to attend my talk at Ipoh YMCA tomorrow at 10.30 am - 12.30 pm

Lol. This statement still can't show the arrogance of "Miskin" Koon? Will Oracle of Omaha labels someone as a poor investor when he is opposing his idea and tell him/her must follow his strategy to become a successful investor?

A reliable close friend told that his friend who is one of the controlling share holders TAN Brothers, of TSH bought JT recently.

Lol. Last time everyone are accusing Xingquan for accounting fraud but "Miskin" Koon assured that there is nothing wrong in their book because his cousin is working at Xing Quan's auditing firm! However he never mention that the auditing firm had audited quite a number of red chip counters whose book are cooked. By the way the fraud involving this accounting firm can easily been found through google. I don't know whether "Miskin" Koon is too careless to miss it or he just simply ignore the firm's past record! At the end Xingquan is still one of the laggard and

TSH had near to 100k ha of unplanted land yet there is no growth opportunity? Of course I am not asking everyone to enter the counter after the recent rally and I haven't done my valuation on TSH. Btw my dad's boss had made more than 200% from this counter.

If you are talking about tree age profile I believe Bumitama is a better choice! Their trees are currently at 6.5 y.o (updated to 2014). Their cpo extraction rate are way higher than Jtiasa and their balance sheet are way cleaner! Whereas Jtiasa had yet to complete its palm oil mill development. Furthermore they have IOI as their backup since they are associate company of IOI. Besides that only 130k ha++ of their more than 200k ha land bank had been planted!

As I had said "Miskin" Koon's projected FFB yield is way too optimistic. Even the management had only projected a yield of 1,194,030 tonnes of FFB. Ok let us assume the yield is accurate, with extraction rate of 21% Jtiasa will produce 257,250 tonnes of CPO. Jtiasa have 969 million shares. Since closing price on 31/10/2013 is RM2.13 so double means it will hit RM4.26 or a market cap of RM4.127 billion. Assume that Jtiasa was assigned with P/E of 15x it need to achieve net profit of RM 275 million. With a profit margin of 20% and CPO selling price of RM3k the plantation segment can only achieve net profit of RM 154 million. Other segment need to contribute a whopping RM 120.8 million. However other segments can't even contribute RM 100 million of net profit during their peak year of 2011! Even with a 25% profit margin for palm oil segment, the net profit is only RM 192 million. There will be a shortage of RM 82 million. To achieve the price target by using 25% profit margin CPO price should rise to RM 3.3k and other segments must reach their peak! If net profit margin was lowered to 20%, CPO price should rise to RM 3.8k. What if other segments are not at their peak? Or market assign a lower P/E for Jtiasa? To me a CPO price of RM 3k is totally ridiculous without any supply disruption. If supply disruption did happen how sure are you that Jtiasa's yield are totally unaffected?

This is just to highlight how hard for Jtiasa to double in 2016 especially after oil palm had been over expanded!

What an arrogant oldman Mr Koon is! TSH is well known for its superb yield from their self develop wakuba breeds!Moreover TSH's land are located at highly fertile sabah and indonesia rather than jtiasa's unfruitful peat soil in sarawak! Regarding growth prospect they have land bank of 131kha and only 38kha was planted! The average tree age profile is 7 years! Obviously this is a counter with good grow prospect! After cash call and asset selling TSH is only geared to 0.71x. I love TSH for its large tract of unplanted higgly fertile land and superb yield wakuba breeds but I didn't bought it because I dislike TSH's highly geared balance sheet and I strongly believe it will launched a few of round cash call and it did happen!

Regarding sarawak's peat soil sorry there are tonnes of research proved that planting on peat soil is hurting environment due to green house effect. Only those who are blind able to deny it! By the way it won't change the environmentalist and big consumers decision no matter how hard the sarawakian protest!

First Resources have the best profit margin in plantation counters even though their yields are not as high as tsh or united plantation! Besides that they have just completed their refining capacity and they have plant to produce biodiesel! Regarding growth they have more than 160k hectares of unplanted land! Besides that around 55% of their trees are below prime! First Resources profit margin are way higher, they have recently completed their plant development and their capital expenditure will be lower for the next few years which will translate to better dividend payout.

For Jtiasa I am worried on next round of private placement! Their warchest is only RM 128 million but their debts are RM 842 million. They need another RM 235 million to construct 3 new mills. Obviously it will have another round of private placement like tsh! Mr Koon's projection of 30 tonnes/ha of FFB production is a big flaw!Sarawak is well known for its low yield peat soil. Only TSH and united plantation able to achieve a yield of 30tonnes/ha and it is only during their peak year! I believe a yield of 28tonnes/ha is already way too optimistic for a sarawak planter!

I am not here trying to said I am better than someone but I just couldn't stand on Mr Koon's statement that look down on others and assuming he is the best!

大宗商品春天早就破灭了！南美的大豆将会是史上最高的产量！还有不只是大豆，菜籽油，太阳花油的产量也恢复正常了。印尼今年的原棕油产量估计会增长到2千8百万。投行们继续吹捧原棕油吧！我倒要看看随着中东局势趋稳后和没有厄尔尼诺现象的话，棕油价可以去到哪。

糖之所以会贵是因为某些天才在26美分的天价买了3年的货！结果原糖期货最低只有15美分。向我们萎大的政府致敬！Malaysia Boleh! Daulat Tuanku!

http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13740&extra=&page=2
自己到investalk看看大家如何质疑郭老报复大马油棕业！看看我是不是百无一用是书生！

还有如果你真的无聊到发慌，可以到investalk看看，我之前怎么形容现任政府！

我支持BN笑话？"up you can blame the government for their inefficiencies and greediness but not overestimate Mr Kuok's influence!"我第一篇回复的最后一句就是指责BN的贪婪和无能。好吧！我原谅你的英文水平不好。
"棕油的问题完全是无能和贪婪的大马政府咎由自取",我不知道你是瞎了，还是语文能力有问题，这句话不是在指责无能的政府？BN的腐败下面这句话更是一阵见血："棕油税务确实存在着舞弊！我国每年规定固定的数量可以豁免税收，不过很多下游业者抱怨这个优惠被滥用，而且被豁免的数量也没有达到政府规定的上限"种种指责BN的言论都可以视若无睹，感情你不是瞎了，就是语文水准有问题。不然就是那种恨不得把全世界的罪恶都往BN身上推的人！

马来西亚棕油下游业当时几乎被顽固的政府害到倒闭了！我哪一句支持BN!找得到我马上自刎以谢天下！我只是道出不属于BN的罪状，证明并非所有的东西都是BN的错。做人要黑白分明，BN固然神憎鬼厌，但把不属于它的罪恶往它身上推这未免过于偏激了。当然如果没有把全部的罪恶还有脏水往BN身上泼，也算支持它的话，那我无话可说了！以你的标准而言，没错我确实是它的死硬派支持着。

你对我有多大的认识？我家人都知道我对现任政府的不满，但是我有那个必要要和你证实我对BN的不满吗？我如果像你说的那么无知，我会知道白毛破坏了多少森林？我会知道白毛贪赃枉法？年少时代我确实曾经无聊到天天看关于BN的政治新闻，每天不骂BN一次就不爽快。可我早就过了那段愤青的岁月，现在的我只想专注在自己喜欢的东西。

彭博社和路透社维护BN的政权，拜托他们会鸟马来西亚才怪！在他们眼中马来西亚算根葱？少高估大马的国际地位，堂堂世界数一数二财经新闻集团会为它们背书，天大的笑话。彭博社报道了多少不为人知的棕油业丑闻？知道KLK如何压榨员工吗？报道的正好就是为虎作伥的彭博社。棕油税务舞弊事件正好是为你口中为BN粉饰太平的路透社！当年多少下游业者的机器运作率连一半都不到，这也是你口中当BN喉舌的路透社报道的！还惟恐天下不乱，写了N次大马房产泡沫呢！和大马比起来，这些人反而更怕得罪金融业的大腕如老巴和索罗斯。CNBC里你绝对不会找到一篇批评老巴的报道！

路透社在棕油税收优惠舞弊事件详细地报道了，下游人士对它的批评。某些特权分子滥用这个便利谋取暴利，业者对它的不满。业者也公开放话要政府调整税收。这就是你眼中保护BN的媒体！


下面就是李爱贤先生亲口承认印尼比大马优越的地方！印尼可以达到25%的榨油率，马来西亚只能达到22%。
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/233225-crunch-time-for-cpo-producers.html
不相信的话，去MPOB看好了看看我国的榨油率和每公顷鲜果串的效率如何？下面就是MPOB的资料。
http://bepi.mpob.gov.my/index.php/statistics/oil-extraction-rate/122-oil-extraction-rate-2013/632-oil-extraction-rate-of-crude-palm-oil-2013.html

这是印尼一家种植公司，它的效率在全球数一数二。看看它的产量和榨油率如何：
http://www.first-resources.com/ir_corpinfo_opsummary.php

这是另一家印尼公司，看看即使是树龄只有5年的它们还可以有那么高的榨油率。
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-WWON6/2773629223x0x663208/EA43D02F-435D-4AF8-B37F-4B3A8E6AFE14/Bumitama_Agri_Ltd_Annual_Report_2012.pdf

呵呵，我为了投资棕油股下的功夫居然变成了纸上谈兵。我家老头子在30多年前就在榨油厂打工了，他种了超过30年的油棕，连2000年每吨RM80都能熬过，现在的情况会比当年差？笑话，当年可是连现任雪州大臣卡力先生管理的牙植利都亏钱的年代！现在有哪家成熟的种植公司赔钱（排除效率超低和树龄过低的公司）？笑话我在装神弄鬼，我家老头在棕油厂工作时，或许你还没出生呢！需要我把我家老头的地契还是他的所得税单上载来证明真伪吗？我要是没有相关知识我在管有缘先生的文章里就没那个本事预测棕油果的产量了！

"然他何去印尼大量投资甘蔗园和棕油，因为以他和中国的邦交绝对可以吃大量货啊" 在印尼种甘蔗，我没说甘蔗和糖要全数卖给中国"感情你不止语文程度有问题，连记性都不好了。上面那两句话，还不足以证明你认为郭老在印尼的甘蔗生意是为了出口到大陆？

我想指出的是被印尼吞掉市场是无能的BN害的，但价格下滑却不是Bn能控制的。BN有那个能耐禁止全球过度开发？大宗商品春天破灭也算BN的功劳？这完全是农夫和华尔街的投机客联手搞出来的，BN还没有那么大的能耐。有的话，当年就不会频临破产了！

愤青的特征就是以蔑视和打倒权威为己任，继续蔑视权威继续意淫吧！我不打算和一个原地踏步的人狼费唇舌。继续意淫你的郭老天下无敌吧！继续活在自己的世界，继续阅读愤青写的那种连出处都无法得到证实的垃圾文吧！

我公司的电脑没有中文输入法。而且i3本来就是英文网站，用英文发表有什么问题？又不是只准中文发表的佳里论坛。呵呵，又一个种族主义激进分子。看来我还是少发表为妙。

无法生存？开玩笑，怎么我家老头子说RM300根本没问题。呵呵！他连生活习惯都不需要改变呢！一吨棕油果RM800，拜托这种荒唐的天价完全只是炒家玩出来的！只有头脑坏掉的人才会认为原棕油能够维持在这样的天价。你知道即使是现在的价格，种植公司享受了多大的毛利率吗？不知道的话，到森那美的官网看看，他们的毛利率有多高。RM2,317的售价，成本才RM 1,048,毛利率达到恐怖的54.8%！棕油价过去被严重高估了，现在步向破灭也是正常的。地心引力论嘛，凡上升的必会下滑。

由于过度开发，大宗商品的春天早就完蛋了。供需已经严重失衡了，价格不下滑才是怪事！这是全球大环境造成，这样也可以怪BN? 咖啡和原糖的价格才叫恐怖，不见了将近一半呢！和它们比起来原棕油只不过是小菜一碟。大宗商品春天破灭难道也是BN的错，不如你把全世界的罪都往BN身上推好了！

呵呵！橡胶还是我国的主要产品？开玩笑我们老早就被泰国超越了！自己到matrade看看橡胶的比重才多大？2.6%而已！以下是matrade的网址
http://www.matrade.gov.my/en/malaysia-exporters-section/33/2752-top-10-major-export-products-2013
如果你连官方数据也不相信这我无言了！自己上网查查我国还剩多少橡胶园？多少人改为种植油棕了？或许你居住的地方保留了很多的橡胶园，但是马来西亚大得很，别把自己的居住环境当成整个马来西亚。

呵呵我怀疑你不止英文有问题，连华文也有问题。看好我写的“马来西亚还有多少肥沃的土地可以开发，就算有价格呢？”感情你是不了解何为开发吧？我指的是把森林或种植其他农作物的土地改为种植油棕。我国多少森林已经被砍光了，还剩下多少地皮能够开发？有时间上网看看环保分子如何批评砂劳越的白毛，看看砂劳越还有多少森林没有被开发！我国难道不需要保留森林保留地？如果我国还有大片的地皮可以开发，印尼就不会在几年前超越我们了！这句话的重点在于我们还有多少可以被开发的土地，不是马来西亚的土地不再肥沃。其实就算比较土地肥沃的程度我们也是比不上印尼。那些特异分子如ioi,tsh和united plantation不被列入，因为它们的产量和效率严重偏离大马的平均值。

还有最近IOI和Felda花了多少钱买地，1hectare就叫价RM 70,000以上了！印尼呢，几千令吉甚至几百令吉就可以买到1hectare了。把开发成本算进去也好，可能还不到大马的1/3.而且土地肥沃程度和榨油率远远超越我国！这点连KLK老板李爱贤也亲口承认！就算是猪头也知道如何选择，更何况是精明的郭老。

棕油税务确实存在着舞弊！我国每年规定固定的数量可以豁免税收，不过很多下游业者抱怨这个优惠被滥用，而且被豁免的数量也没有达到政府规定的上限。至于附加的税收，拜托这只是想象力超级丰富的你，自己凭空想象出来而已。

还有全球最大的棕油输入国已经是印度了，中国去年就变成老二了。大陆的庞大胃口确实消化得了百万吨的原棕油，可是印尼的精炼棕油还是比我们的原棕油便宜。猪也知道如何选择。另外中国对大豆的需求更大，大豆除了当家禽的饲料，还有副产品大豆油。你知道中国大豆的进口增长了多少吗？在这样的情况下，老温会买大马原棕油的话，那只有一个可能性，那就是他脑子进水了。这和郭老一点关系也没有，完全是商业考量。

我严重怀疑你的语文能力有问题！印尼的白糖产量连自给自足都达不到，还要谈出口。你知道印尼的白糖入口量在全球名列前茅吗？根据路透社2012的报道，当年印尼的原糖入口量甚至还超越了中国！郭老进军印尼糖业完全是看到了印尼庞大的年轻人，庞大的商机。和大陆扯不上任何关系！也许经过大量开发，未来印尼可以出口大量原糖，但绝对不是短期就发生！

连路透社，彭博社这类财经权威撰写的新闻也不相信，相反却选择相信连源头都找不出的愤青垃圾文。我实在无言了。我不敢自认是什么权威或专家，但至少我有棕油业，咖啡，可可和糖业的基本知识。我也有追踪它们的发展。阁下既然不愿意进步，那就继续活在自己的世界，继续阅读愤青的垃圾文，继续质疑财经和棕油业界权威的真实性吧！手淫强身，意淫强国。继续意淫郭老有飞天遁地的本领吧！继续阅读大马愤青的垃圾文吧！

你会看英文吗？中国和印尼入口精炼棕油完全是出于经济考量。为了发展印尼本土的棕油下游业务，印尼政府透过税务把精炼棕油的价格压得比原棕油还要低。只要是头脑正常的也会知道和谁买更划算。这跟郭老有哪毛子的关系？自己去看先搞清楚丰益集团在大陆卖多少大豆油，多少棕油才和我大声！你知道印尼的土地有多肥沃吗？价格和成本有多么便宜吗？KLK，云顶还有多少大亨都纷纷到印尼投资，马来西亚还有多少肥沃的土地能开发？就算有也好价格呢？看看最近IOI,Felda用什么价位买地？再看看最近KLK在印尼花了多少买印尼的地皮？你知道森那美在印尼有多少地皮吗？KLK有多少地皮吗？森那美才是大马的印尼地王！按照你的标准森那美岂不是被压迫得更凄惨？最后连felda自己也想到印尼买地了！

我估计你要么是没看我的最后一句，不然就是英文不好。大马棕油的市场分量被吃掉完全是因为税务的关系！由于印尼的原棕油比精炼棕油更贵，导致印尼减少出口原棕油。结果大马的炼油厂几乎完蛋。最后政府迫于压力才调低原棕油的税务，是我国的原棕油比印尼更便宜。但是我国的精炼棕油还是比印尼贵！看好我最后一句！棕油的问题完全是无能和贪婪的大马政府咎由自取，他们没有到最后一刻都不肯在税务上让步才是整件事的罪魁祸首。整件事和老郭半毛子关系都没有。

郭老到印尼投资完全是因为他精明的生意头脑看到更好更廉宜的投资机会。还有丰益的甘蔗生意完全是为了供应印尼，和中国没有任何关系！印尼缺糖可缺得凶了，每年还要靠海外大量进口才能满足内需。出口到大陆简直是开玩笑。出口国际白糖的是巴西，澳洲和泰国。印尼还早哩，先喂满本土日益增加的需求再说。

呵呵橡胶还是马来西亚主要出产品？拜托，大部分橡胶园早就被砍掉种油棕了！大马的主要产品是双油-石油和棕油！

连国际石油价格下滑也可以赖BN!天啊！美国有页岩油和页岩气难道也是BN干的好事？美元涨价难道是Ah Jib Gor害的？

我不敢自认什么专家或权威，但我敢大声说我每个星期阅读关于白糖和棕油的新闻和资料绝对比你多！
最后我要奉劝你多看一点英文的财经杂志和报纸如The Edge Daily,少看一些网络愤青写的垃圾文。

Lol. China don't import our palm oil from us is due to more competitive price in Indonesian refined palm oil as Indonesia had reduced the tax to make its refined palm oil even cheaper than crude palm oil. Nothing to do with Mr Kuok. Yup you can blame the government for their inefficiencies and greediness but not overestimate Mr Kuok's influence!

Ouch FGV? Iris? 75% of FGV are over 25 years old and need to be replanted. Base on the company's guide replanting require 14-15 years to complete! Oil palm trees need 7 years to fully mature. Moreover there are quite a number of counters with better tree age profile and efficiency than FGV. TSH, GENP, IJMP, SOP, Rimbunan Sawit, Jtiasa all have better tree age profile than FGV.

The boss of Iris is well known as Repco Low to Malaysia equity market! The counter is highly indebted with huge receivables and left with little cash! The reason given seems to be buying a hope rather than investing base on fundamental.

Kimlun, Gamuda, KSL, Armada are 2013 themes! Construction counters are well known for their low profit margin and high debtors daysg. To me I think cahya mata sarawak are better. It is cheaper compared to gamuda and monopolised the Sarawak market due to the influence of Pak Uban.

No doubt Iskandar is the most favourite place currently but it is a big bubble! KSL's borrowing are huge! The musical chair game may last longer than everyone can predict but it is way too speculative for me.

Boustead is a very diversified counters. It may get higher valuation after the listing of BPB but sorry I had no faith on Boustead Heavy Engineering and Pharma.

Supermax and Maybank seems to be a good pick base on past result! Bumi Armada had successfully grabbed some lucrative contracts. I believe the three are the only jewels in 10 stocks recommended.

Lol. The cash is not there how to buy back the shares? Share buy back is not good? Please you have too much cash on hand and the cash are doing nothing! Even Oracle of Omaha also agree that share buy back is good for shareholders!

我是很想投资白毛的公司啦！dayang和cahya mata我都有兴趣，特别是cahya mata。不过大选前，真的害怕有个万一，虽然我很肯定安华不会取胜。

cahya mata有白毛这个后台确实底气硬得很。

Gentle reminder please note that the net profit is RM 52.3 million. With Eksons share of 164.213 million the net profit is RM 0.32 rather than RM 0.51.

Funny and it also explain how crazy and stupid in the 90s. By the way this explain that a lot of people making big money in the 90s are purely luck not how good their skills are.

球神啊！

http://guanyu9.blogspot.com/2009/05/auditor-landscape-gets-more-varied.html
pls google and search for how many s-chips are associated with Foo Kon Tan Grant Thornton LLP. Haha even big 4 also have some of the world largest scandals associated with them!

does he sure that they have done their jobs? My dad had been working for more than a dozens of companies and deal with more than dozens of auditors including those from big 4 (pwc). By the way I dare not publish his comments!

Lol xingquan again. I don't know whether I should salute his self condifence or shall I call this as arrogance. Obviously there are something wrong with this company's corporate exercises and accounts. So many cash on hand but so little interest received! The interest payment is extraordinarily high at 9%. Company is traded below net cash per share and the bosses cried for foul but no initiatives were taken. If the cash is really there why don't they repurchase the share or pay dividends? Or just simply take it private!

Dear Tsurukame that's what everyone are believing when QE was launched but please study the velocity of money. The money supply was increased however the velocity of money are falling. After the banks received money printed by FED they put it back to FED as reserve. That's why it explain no hyperinflation despite printing frenzy by uncle Ben. Another thing is U.S. are actually deleveraging without QE it will deflation.

To me it will be very simple just focus on the supply and demand. If currency war will boost every commodities prices, steels, copper, crude oil, sugar, cocoa, coffee prices won't be going down.

Dear bsnpg, I am not analyst. I am just interested on plantation counters as my dad had been planters for more than 20 years and due to the simplicity on analyzing them. However now I feel that it will be much better I invest in consumer products that can grow together with per capita income in emerging markets. If you understand Mandarin you should go investalks forum to have a look on the threads from the most caliber members. They are much better than the analysts in investment banks (sell side since no body can read buy side reports). I am no way comparable to them.

Regarding Africa in fact there are a few million hectares of oil palm forest with very low yield in africa! Per capita income growth of Africans yes but it take times! Currently we are over expanding. Pls check the commodity price charts since 1980s. What will happen when the bubble burst! Sugar and coffee are important crops but now they are trying their best to create new record (lowest since 2008).

Mr Fong didn't invest in Xingquan. He enter Sozo and we know what happen on Sozo. Now Mr Fong had learnt a lesson and correct his mistake. At the age of 70, Mr Fong still learning new investment skills. Previously he didn't bother on ROE but now after browsing some forum's threads he did use ROE in his investment. Whereas I can only see some one who believe that he is absolutely right here.

Maybe this is his self confidence and I certainly hope Moola and I are the one that make a big mistake!

Regarding the best investor I believe Mr Fong is the man. Look at the 42 counters portfolio that he recommend. Even though I disagree with quite a number of his picks but result speak itself!

Dear Mr Koon pls don't have hard feeling I am not saying that you are not a great investor.

Oops xingquan again. Again if the cash is really there why their interest income is so low given that PRC’s interest is so high? Since they are so cash rich and the debt is so little why they need to borrow given that their interest expense at 9%. Again if the cash is there why don’t they distribute dividends or repurchase their shares to push up the share price? I suspect does Mr Koon really follow this counter? They had launched some suspicious activities like rebranding exercise and TDR. If Xingquan is so profitable why they need to raise cash in Taiwan? Since their cash are more than market cap why don’t the major shareholders just take it private? Besides that due to tight competition leading brands like Li Ning is bleeding and Anta’s profit also fall whereas Xingquan is totally unaffected. Does it make sense that the top players are suffering whereas the smaller and unknown player can continue with their heyday? And now Sozo was hit by accounting scandal and even a veteran like Mr Fong Si Ling also get his hand burnt and he dare not touch any red chips.
Before asking others to follow your strategy maybe you should take some time to learn accounting 101 and red flags. By the way if you are interested you can search for financial red flag in cfa syllabus.
Since I didn’t make RM 30 million in a single transaction and I don’t have any track record to show how good I am so I should keep my mouth shut. However financial blogger ze moola who had successfully identified a lot of frauds in Malaysia should have the calibre to comment. Below are how he comment on xingquan. Below are the links on xingquan and other china counters on bursa.
http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/search/label/Xingquan
http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/search/label/Chinese%20Stocks%20Listed%20In%20Malaysia
Last even Mr Buffett who is widely regarded as the Oracle of Omaha also makes a lot of mistakes. If Sage of Nebraska is always correct than why he still can’t recoup his cost of investment in Conoco Phillips despite the full recovery of crude oil? Haha maybe I should keep my mouth shut from now onwards as I don’t make RM 30 million, no track record to convince people, not donating large chunk for charity and not a 80 plus old man.

Please note that the cpo futures price had shoot up to above RM 2,600 and this explain the rally in the plantation counters!

First I am not a financial analyst. Second I am using future profit as a yardstick. Third I dislike counters without moat! It is impossible to differentiate timbers produced by Jaya Tiasa from the rest. Moat is competitive advantage like why we prefer Mcd than other QSR, gillete than others or cost advantage like Walmart to the its competitors. Fourth I would rather buy a cash cow than something highly indebted and low efficiency. Base on the balance sheet it is way too obvious that Jaya Tiasa is dire need for another round of cash call.
Regarding the land price please have a look on how cheap the cost of liberia's land to KLK. At a cost of around RM 4500/ha. Even though the Lee brothers are not as efficient as the great United Plantation but their ability to steer KLK's growth are widely recognize by investors.
With the expansion in oilseeds planting especially oil palm it is hard to convince that palm oil will continue to boom like the last 10 years. To me i believe this is just the start of the end of commodity super cycle. Please check the commodity prices during 80s to the end of 90s to have a look on how low the price can go when boom end.

I can tell you all that the most silly decisions in my life is not following Robert Hagstrom's advice in The Warren Buffet Way. Although Robert's advice doesn't represent the real investment strategy of Buffett but it did show us part of Warren's strategy especially during the late 80s until the end of 20th century. Warren always say it is better to buy a quality counter with fair price rather than buying a fair company at discount.

After 1970s Warren change his strategy from buying cheap to buy quality and this make him the greatest investor in the world.

During my first screening I did select some counters with good moat and dividends but I consider them as old man business (mature with low or limited future growth). I did drop the Pet counters due to their high p/e and how their dividend are growing now? Yeah I did go for cheap counters but I sucks. If I did invest in what I first pick I can proudly say my return my return will close to 100%.

Everyone have their own strategy. Everyone should try to get the strategy that fit himself/herself. However I won't be arrogant to ask others to follow mine and claim that mine is the best.

ok come on man the decision is made by you. you can only blame yourself for losing money! i had conversion with someone and i was convinced for the future prospect of f&n so I sold off my kfima. at the end f&n sucks but kfima is performing (even though the counter is not super good). I can only blame myself for not sticking with kfima and ignore the 30% profit loss of f&n. besides that not all decisions from the super investors are accurate. even warren's accuracy is only 1/3. even buffett himself did say that if the most successful investment was taken out berkshire will become nothing! recently cold eye did made quite a number of recommendations but his accuracy is just more than 50%. what make the super investor differ from others are they will go big in their best ideas.

Dear Mr Koon I believe your profit margin is way too optimistic. Let us use some of the more efficient counters to compare. For united plantation their net profit margins from 2007 – 2012 only at a range between 26.72% – 34.39%. First Resources are well known for its cost control however their profit margins also range between 29% - 35%. For the timber business industry sorry I have a different view. There is no branding in Jaya Tiasa’s product. The consumer won’t say they will only buy Jaya Tiasa’s product. If timber is so good like what you claim they will never enter palm oil business. For your info Jaya Tiasa are not the beloved darling of banks. Cash cow like MCD, Yum Brands, Nestle are some of the darlings of banks. Their interest can go below the market rate. And last for trees above 25 years old the yield will drop significantly and this is what Felda are facing now.

Dear sense maker come on have u really make a calculation for your assumption? FFB jump 200% in 2015 that mean 657,000 x 3 = 1,971,000 tonnes. OER of 21% = CPO of 413,910 tonnes. Assume a profit before tax margin of 30% and PBT of RM 450 million. So revenue will be RM 450 million/0.3 = RM 1.5 billion. CPO price =RM 1.5 billion/ 413, 910 = RM 3,623.98 per tonne. If your PBT margin is lower to 25% it will be even worst! The revenue will become RM 1.8 billion and CPO per tonne will be RM 4,348. If PBT margin was up to 40% (at which I think is impossible for jaya tiasa who fail in their cost management) the revenue will be RM 1.125 billion and CPO per tonne at RM 2,717. CPO at RM 2,700 per tonne sounds more reasonable but do you think Jaya Tiasa able to get PBT margin at 40%? If you are talking about a ridiculous high PBT margin of 50% the revenue will be RM 450 million/0.5 = RM 900 million and CPO price will be RM 900 million/ 413,910 = RM 2,174. Oops the price is even lower than now. At this price tag I believe all planters profit margin will be even lower. At a price of RM 2,174 Jaya Tiasa still get a PBT margin of 50% than this will be a miracle! I hope that I don’t have to be a math teacher next time.

nope your view are totally bias and you believe that cpo will have a boom. the yield are totally ridiculous for a counter with more than 48% of their trees below prime. If you price it at RM 2,800 - RM 3,000 per tonne even though I will say it is over optimistic but it is not ridiculous. however a price tag above RM 3,600 I can only say this is totally ridiculous without a severe weather change that cause shortage of supply. Last the labour cost of jaya tiasa definitely will be higher than 2012 due to minimum wage rate hence the profit margin definitely will be lower than 2012.

I disagree with Mr Koon's valuation base on market price/ha. First liquidation will not happen on Jtiasa. Next even liquidation did happen I don't think there will be planters willing to pay the hefty price tag. Indonesia's land are less than 1/10 of Malaysia's price and their land are more fruitful than ours. The brilliant planters are KLK and Sime Darby. They had enter Indonesia many years ago and that's before others go for planting frenzy in Indonesia.Now KLK and Sime already change the expansion target from Indonesia to Africa. I can foresee more and more tycoons will follow their footstep as the cost are always lower than Malaysia.

Dear Sense maker, first you are using a ridiculously high yield of 28 tonnes/ha for jtiasa. Please be alert that Sarawak’s peak soil is well known to the world for not suitable for planting oil palm. As far as I know there is only 1 counter in the world that are able to achieve this kind of fabulous yield that is united plantation. Sorry to insult you that jtiasa’s management and soil quality is no way comparable to the great united plantation. It will be a miracle if their yield is above 26 tonnes/ha over the long run. Moreover you are using another ridiculous assumption of CPO price at RM 3600 per tonne. Please be alert that currently there is no shortage of palm oil. The previous boom was caused by extremely bad soybean production due to the worst weather pattern in a few decades time in South and North America. Furthermore during the past 10 years there are a lot of expansions in Indonesia and they are still expanding. To make the matter worst, some tycoons will plant oil palm in Africa. Please have a look on long term price level of palm oil and other crops. The most important thing is have a look on price chart of deeply depress crops like sugar and coffee to get a clue that how depress the price can go when the supply totally outpace demand! Last base on management guideline there are only 51.09% of the trees enter the prime stage of 7 years old or more. It is impossible for them to achieve a yield of 28 tonnes/ha. Hence my conclusion is you are using some ridiculous assumption to make jtiasa looks attractive. Sorry for the nasty words that I use but I just wish to point out all the flaws in your assumption.

Opps I thought this is a dummy account. I admit that some of my posts in dali's blog are a bit over but I am not intended to assault you. I just want to share that people will never appreciate someone's hard work for some multi begger but they will insult you when your recommendation fail. Btw nice to meet you. hope that you will post more.

JT Yeo pls note that the plantation counters have to fork out a lot of capital to plant the trees and build the mills. And there are no fruits produced in 3 years time. 4-7 years the tree will be bearing fruit but it is hard for planters to break even during this period. The trees will enter high growth phase after 7 years and reach their prime at around 10 years old. Hence it is normal for new planter to fork out tonnes of money in the initial phase.

If we are using a price between RM 2,200 and RM 2,600. Do you think jaya tiasa still worth a buy? Plantable area at 70,200 ha. I assume they can achieve a yield of 23 tonnes/ha. The FFB will be 1,614,600 tonnes. With OER of 21% the CPO produced will be 339,066 tonnes. Assume CPO at RM 2,600/tonne the revenue will be RM 881,571,600. With a profit margin of 25% the net profit will be RM 220,392,900. EPS will be RM 0.23. With a P/E of 10 it will only worth RM 2.30. With a P/E of 15 it will worth RM 3.45. An upside of 56.81%. P/S i am excluding the timber's profit because I have no clue how it will perform. I believe another 8-9 years are needed to achieve full capacity. Assuming an inflation rate of 4% the return will be 14.58%. The annualized return will be less than 2%. Of course I might be over pessimistic on this counter however even you use a more optimistic view on it the counter doesn't look attractive. However if you believe that commodity boom doesn't end and CPO can prosper than it will be a different story.

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/07/rebuttal-by-mr-koon.html
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2013/07/koon-yew-yin-on-jaya-tiasa.html
please go to the links there are quite a number of concrete negative comments on jtiasa. Jtiasa's debt is more than RM800 million and their cash on hand of around RM 200 million but it need RM 235 million to build 3 palm oil mills. It is well known that sarawak's peat soil are not suitable for planting oil palm. Bottoming of CPO? Please CPO price in the 2012-13 considered as depress? Please go sime darby's website to check what kind of profit margin they are enjoying? With more expansion in Africa and Indonesia I will never be bullish on CPO. Furthermore I believe the commodity super cycle started from 2002 had stopped.

TTB is still living in an era that Malaysia stock markets are in long term depress mode (1998-2008). During that era most of the quality counters will be traded at low valuation. Some even at valuation that you can't believe. But sorry we have been in secular bull for the last few years. The bull might end but definitely not that fast. There might be some correction but it might last another 1-2 years coz our beloved Ah Jib Gor have a lot of money to spend.

Before accusing Mr TTB please check their previous annual report and new policy implemented by BNM. There will be liberalization of reinsurance fees. Insurance companies no longer pay fixed amount of reinsurance fees the reinsurance fees will be subjected to their own judgement on risk. No doubt the dividend yield is high but it can suspend payment when result is not favourable. It is deeply undervalue as it is traded way below book value but the business is very volatile. Previously its bottom line tumbled due to payment on claims for natural disasters but even without any catatrosphic events the bottom line also fell recently. Last but not least the CAGR of MNRB for last 5 years are misleading. The latest result was adjusted to include surplus or deficit of retakaful and takaful funds. Previously the net profit will exclude the surplus or deficit of the funds. Please note that the money doesn't belong to shareholders. If the surplus of the funds were excluded from the last 2 financial years bottom line you will notice how volatile the earnings of MNRB. I agree that MNRB might dispose off its takaful business due to new policies and it is deeply undervalue base on its book but calling Mr TTB sleeping base on MNRB is way too over. No doubt there are quite a numbers of undervalue good counters in Malaysia for the last two years but after the recent spike it is harder to find compared to last few years. I agree that TTB is way over on Malaysia market. For anyone following coldeye's article he had managed to find more than a dozens of high quality undervalue counters. TTB should be criticized but not using MNRB as a reason.

a lot of flaw in his article! palm oil consists of polyunsaturated fatty acid which is not healthy! environmentalist had done tonne of research to prove the impact of palm oil toward global warming!

even though i don't agree with some stocks picked by cold eye but the results show that he is the best retail investor in malaysia! those so called malaysia warren buffett should learn from him!