Dun forget the stupid acquisition the management had done in their past!

TTB as value investor? Come on he had became a market timer! So many undervalue high quality counters that had yet to be dicovered in the last few years. How much he had picked? None! Don't tell me that's due to bubble some are non-cyclical counters!

http://whereiszemoola.blogspot.com/search/label/London%20Biscuits
Pls go here to have a look.

Erm I think everyone here had missed all the questionable acquisitions done by the management in the past. Where is Ze Moola had clearly discuss what a poor job had been done by the management!

i couldn't agree anymore with you. however this is not facebook. there is no like for me to click. jtiaa did have good future prospect but someone are way too ambitious when he promote the share.

Do take note on its higher than normal receivables. FMCG normally have low receivables I expect another round of bad debt write off.

废话！当然大家都要花钱不然他马爷怎么赚？要你花钱不存钱是把钱拿去投资，让钱滚钱！投资在有生产性的资产！不是买一堆不切实际的东西。当然没有人那么干，经济就变成一滩死水了。马爷说的也不能全盘否认，但还是一句话-量力而为！

come on! applying warren's philosophy on some highly speculative or stocks without fundamental and expecting the same output as his classical Geico/ Washington post are you serious? CSL doesn't have any tract record and Malaysia red chips are well known for suspicious book. You should blame yourself for picking some rubbish counter rather than blaming Warren. His philosophy only can be applied on intact companies! For those who blame kcchong do you analyze companies or businesses better than him? If not please keep your mouth shut!

The article was written to teach others how to be successful. However his recommendation on MFCB management only serve to punt the share price rather than unlocking the value of the company or bring any genuine benefit for the shareholders. If free warrant can unlock a company's value why don't the activist shareholders e.g. Carl Icahn fight for it? Instead of free warrants they are always fighting for higher dividend and force the company to repurchase their shares! No comment on the future prospect on this counter.

Because you are recommending something good for the punters not for long term genuine shareholders that's why so many posts criticizing your recommendation!

If free warrants are so beneficial and so powerful to the genuine shareholders why none of the activist investors request for it? I can only found them request for cash dividend and share buy back. Warren also mentions that share buy back and cash dividend is beneficial for shareholders. In this case since they are so cash rich why don't they just give special dividend or repurchase their shares since it is deeply discount!

You have get it totally deducting dividend out!

Come on lar the construction will go to First Solar, an american counter. Cypark does not have any edge in Renewable Energy. The management had denied 1MDB will offer anything for them. I own cypark as well but can't you guys stop spreading some non-sense?

I also prefer bumitama as 75% of its trees are below prime. The average tree profile is 7.5 years. And it still have a large tract of unplanted land. However there is limit for Indonesia planters to 100k ha of land. The growth is there but we have to watch out on the debt accumulation. The cash is depleting significantly and debts are accumulating despite they just listed on 2012.

For First Resources last time I had calculated the fair value is around SGD 2.2 but I have to recalculate as there are quite a number of flaws. To me it is comfortable as my entry price is around SGD 1.81. First Resources had more than 100k of unplanted land. They also have downstream refinery business like biodiesel and cooking oil. The management had mentioned that they will diversify into rubber planting in future.

At the current price I will not recommending first resources. Even though bumitama's valuation is higher but I think it has higher growth in the next few years.

I will recalculate my fair value for both and post it here later but bear in mind everything is purely my personal opinion no recommendation for buy/sell.

Regarding plantation counters I always love TSH for its highest yield wakuba breed, young tree age profiles and large tract of unplanted land! However I have to admit that I am an idiot for not buying this counter! I always aim for price correction after cash call but it never happen!

The most undervalue plantation counter is MKH recommended by Mr Fong (冷眼）, the market had totally ignored its plantation segment. In the past even you assign the worst pricing for its plantation segment the fair value should be much higher than the market value. I know I am 马后炮, but this shows how good Mr Fong is and it show how much my respect to him!

For CPO price, I should admit I am an idiot for ignoring the warnings from weather forecasters! According to forecast there is more than 50% chance El Nino will occur. Australia forecaster even said the chance is more than 70%. Most of them agree that there will be drought during June - October. This may sent CPO price above RM 3,500 per tonne if it really happen. In my opinion I believe it will happen and CPO should be bullish at least until March 2015. I strongly recommend you follow the weather news closely.

For plantation counter as I said before I still prefer SG counter for their lower valuation, costing and higher quality. No doubt MKH is good but at the current price I am not comfortable. TSH is good but I am too lazy to value it so I can't give you a concrete comment on it.

well i will agree to certain extent of the author's point of view. the market is expensive now but that doesn't mean we can't invest or there is no under value counters for us to grab. i know sounds like 马后炮，but mr fong（冷眼）had been recommending dozens of counters since 2009/2010. You can refer to icon8888's article he is the man! He had recommended quite a number of undervalue property counters! However I feel that we should be cautious now! Almost every counter that I like goes up! The investors seems super confident on the future.

We are just worried that MGS will become toilet paper since the gov always abuse the money!

别听他乱说。根本就是他为了海外基金没时间买马股。没有便宜货？cbip是什么？dutch lady是什么？gtronic是什么？scientex是什么？allianz是什么？l&g是什么？怎么冷眼一直都有目标呢？他才是根正苗红的老格信徒！

其实公司还是有赚钱，有赚钱的公司还是有一定价值。不过dsonic的生意模式不是重复性的。需要不断的去争取新的合约。请恕我愚笨，我只会看一些超级简单的业务。稍微复杂一点我就倒了。而且我也特别看重现金流。

我也有cypark不过个人觉得最大的份的会给1MDB拿走。现在掌权的是Ah Jib Gor，而且马爷也老了。如果他有什么万一的话，cypark就更没法和1MDB抢！

大师终于回来了。期待您的分享！

I won't consider a yield of 5.9% as attractive to me. Interest hike is around the corner. Our MGS yield will have another of hike soon. The spread between MGS and Reits are narrowing down. Unless the spreads are large enough to compensate my risk if not I would prefer other counters.

My counter was bought during 2013 and during the peak in 2012. As I said before I bought sg counters - bumitama and first resources. No recommendation for buying and selling.

Dear sosfinance, as per what I had said Felda's current market price doesn't appear to be cheap. Using 2012's net profit it is now traded at a hefty P/E of 16.49x. Even with 2011's net profit the current price is already traded at 12.9x which i do not think FGV is able to achieve. Don't forget that even CPO prices are pushed up by El Nino planters will have substantial losses in FFB yield. A 12.9x PE doesn't appear as a bargain since it is lack of growth and the tree profiles are way beyond acceptable level. I don't think buying into this counter on hope that CPO prices will push every single plantation counters price higher fit into Graham and Klarman's definition of investment and margin of safety. Of course both of them did invest heavily in low quality securities but that is under pre-requisition that they are ridiculously cheap. Does FGV fit into this requirement?

Frankly speaking I feel the action of hoping FGV prices will be push up by higher CPO prices is a pure speculation rather than investing.

I totally disagree with your view that speculating FGV is a wise business decision. I am speaking on the perspective of business owner. As what Graham and Buffett said the most business like decision is the best investment decision. I am considering myself as owner of a counter rather than punting or focus on the quarter by quarter results like those sell side analysts.

I am fed up commenting on counter that is totally unattractive to me. This will be my last post on FGV.

Dear Atoz that's why I always said having tonnes of cash on hand doesn't mean the shareholders will benefited. Given the track record of GLCs most of the time the cash will be wasted on ridiculous merger and acquisitions.

Dear Mr Koon, as per my previous comment with a selling price of RM 2,843 per MT the plantation business can only achieve PBT of RM 1.33 billion. Even without the other losses of RM 205 million the net profit is merely RM 1.04 billion. Even we are using 2011's net profit of RM 1.33 billion the market price doesn't look cheap! 2011 CPO prices are way higher than now but the net profit doesn't appear to be much higher than now. Even they stop the replanting it doesn't help at all. As per my

Regarding the RM 5 billion on hand there are tonnes of records for sabotage on funds by the GLCs. Logistic to improve their efficiency? If this can work why there is no other plantation companies entering this business? As far as i know only sg listed kencana agri was involved in logistic business.
I
Your assumption of additional RM 1.59 billion are totally ridiculous. It is impossible to achieve this unless Felda have a profit margin of 100%。 To ride the rally of CPO prices there are numbers of prudent counters to bet on rather than FGV which does not appear to be cheap enough.

Last even though the risk of El Nino is higher now, but there are still chances for it not to happen. Those with the most pessimistic view said that yield can only recover after a year however those who are optimistic said yield will recover within 6 months! Ok even with a lower CPO yield U.S. going to plant another record acreage of soybean this year! The price spread between soyoil and palm oil are currently at historical low now I doubt how much it has.

Dear sosfinance, I believe the ultra low profit margin in their upstream plantation business is due to their corporate structure. Initially the gov wish to list the whole Felda Group. However due to the strong rejection from the settlers only 350,000 hectares of the out of 900,000 hectares are listed. I believe the IPO prospectus has explanation on this but I am not motivated to read a thousand pages with tonnes of useless info. Btw the drastic fall in 2012 was due to other losses on its LLA agreement.

Felda is targeting CPO 3.3 million tonnes however the real output maybe 3%-5% below target. To make things easier let us use Mr Koon's estimation at 3.186 million tonnes.

A RM 500 difference will add RM 1.59 billion into FGV bottom line?
Ok let us assume that Felda with additional RM 1.59 billion before tax and zakat. Last year profit before tax and zakat at RM 1.54 billion and excluding other gains of RM 492 million it will become RM 2.64 billion. With last years tax rate of 26.03% net profit will be RM 1.95 billion! With a total number of shares of 3.65 billion, eps will be a whopping 53 cents. Market price of RM 4.70 FGV is only worth 8.87x 2014 pe. Wow everyone should pawn their underwears to buy this counter.

Wait additional RM 500 per MT will add RM 1.59 billion? Yup provided that revenue equal to profit. In fact Felda is selling at RM 2,843 per MT in 2012 but its net profit is only RM 905.508 million. 2013 plantation revenue at RM 18.07 billion, PBT at RM 686.869 million or profit margin of 3.8%. 2012 revenue at RM20.29 billion pbt at RM 1.33 billion or 6.6%. With Felda guidance of CPO production at 3.3 million MT or a 0.6% gain compared to 2012. I doubt they will be a huge diffrent for PBT contributed by plantation. By the way according to 2012 annual report Felda purchase from third party settlers with 500,000 hectares and their own FFB production is only 5.05 million tonnes in 2013. Eventhough they produce 3.21 million MT of CPO in 2013 but with their 2012's OER of 20.51% the total FFB used is 15.65 million MT which means the in house FFB only accounted for about 32.27%. This explain the extraordinarily low PBT margin for its upstream plantation segment.

At RM 4.70 Felda's market value come at RM 17.15 billion ringgit. With RM 4.35 billion of borrowing and RM 5.02 billion Enterprise Value stood at Rm 16.48 billion! Using 2011 net profit of RM 1.33 billion. EV/Net Profit come in at 12.4x while PE come in at 12.9x. If Felda only achieve 2012's profit of RM 1.04 billion (excluding other losses of RM 205 million). EV/net profit come in at 15.84x while PE stood at 16.49x. To me this is not a bargain there are numbers of counters with younger age profile and better quality of management compared to this inefficient and poorly manage giant.

Felda's current yield is 19.59 MT/ha. According to MPOB Malaysia average FFB yield at 19.02 tonnes. Felda's land bank at 343,521 hectares. Felda is replanting 15,000 hectares per year and expect to achieve OER of 24% and FFB yield of 30 MT/ha with its award winning Yangambi material. With around 54% of trees need to be replanted in 2011 (about 185,501 hectares), the replanting takes 13 years to complete. And to mature the tree need to reach 7 years old. I believe everyone now should know that after the first phase of replanting ended they need to replant the current productive trees which stood at 17% in 2011.

You can call me stereotyping but with the previous GLC experience I have doubt on this counter. I know they have RM 5 billion of war chest on hand but I have doubts on their ability to grow the business diversification might not be good especially entering cut throat logistic.

if they will rectify the problem they will never be call as bursa malaysia!

FGV and TH? Are you serious? FGV had more than half of its acreage need to be replanted. They are only replanting 15k per year hence around 15 years are needed for them to fully replant the existing old trees. When it completed the replanting the current productive trees need to be replanted. Moreover FGV's yield is always below industry standard. Some go for TH as well its yield and costing are totally unattractive.

EBITDA? Please u don't have to pay ur gov and ur creditor?

我笑了！记者的数学果然是天下无双！3万5千美元等于1千150万令吉。马币什么时候贬值到这个地步！强人啊！

I thought the catalyst is winning the construction of power plant just won by 1MDB.

what a piece of crap! There is no way for a company's total cost to go as low as RM 1,400. Can a company get rid of administration expenses and sell & distribution expenses? Although prices had skyrocketed but that's due to dry spell. When weather normalize prices will back to normal. With so many expansion in Africa I doubt the price can stay above RM 2,600/t in the future!

according to the photo i believe it should be third from the left.

Totally ridiculous! Even the best company in the industry like United Plantation and First Resources also unable to achieve this kind of profit margin. The profit margin is gross profit margin. Besides that the article doesn't take into account the age profile of the trees! The trees are below 5 years to achieve the optimum production level it need at least another 5 years! If CPO price is pegged at RM 3k/tonne even with the most optimistic assumption the net profit is no way to reach 87 million. Assume a profit margin of 30% and FFB/ha of 28 tonnes the CPO price must reach a whopping RM 4,215. A profit margin of 30% only achievable on the most favourable year. Furthermore output of 28 mt/ha and profit margin of 30% are not achievable given WTK's land are located at peat soil. Moreover the wood business are highly cyclical how sure are you that after 5 years the price will remain favourable?

a very good article however I had totally different opinion on protasco. It used to be a very stable and good counters before it plans to acquired o&g counter in indonesia. There is lack of transparency in the indonesian counter and mind you it is a brown field which had been stopped for a while.

我一向来都佩服沧海老弟！说得好！好的就收，烂得连看也可以省下，没有长期优势的见好就收。

My Dad is a seasonal accouting veteran who have near to 40 years experience. He had told me it is no hard for him to fool the big 4's auditors! They will just send the fresh graduates who do not have much experience for auditing. The worst thing is the staff will change every year! According to him the SOP can't detect any wrong doing at all.

In this case they are so many redflags to show the company are problematic. Like warren said if you found you are digging hole, stop doing it.

Lol. Again another childish affirmation. If the company is so good why there is a sudden switch in brands. As previous comment from some member xing quan's products can't be found at all! The dividend payout is just 2%. Since the company are so cash rich why they can't even increase the dividend payout? Since they are so cash rich why their interest receive is ridiculously low? Since it is cash rich why it need to raise capital through issuing TDR previously? The free warrants doesn't bring any benefits to the long term shareholders. They still have to fork out money to convert to common stocks.As i said since they are cash rich why they need to raise money through warrants?

I don't think anyone here is better than John Paulson. Paulson is a legend yet he was trapped by chinese counters. Even warren who is widely regarded as the best investors also admit that he done a lot of mistakes. Follow tycoons blindly won't bring you benefits.

Felda? Oh pls 55% of the trees need to be replanted. Speechless on the quality of anlysts we have.

Dear leefongyong. Maybe we should bribe the sin chew daily's journalist so that he will inform us before his articles are published. Wakaka!

Dear Mr Koon, pls ignore optimus's post. If you ignore him he will stop posting. His intention is to make you get angry. As long as you ignore him he will stop posting.

Lol. For those complaint that P/E are extraordinarily high. Come on this is cyclical counter! CPO prices at multi-year low last 2 years and the trees had yet to mature. Definitely the profit will not be there! When the trees reach their prime profit will normalize. However as what I said previously i am not fancy on this counter coz I have no confident on their cost control, sarawak peat soil yield and their hefty debts. Bear in mind they need another 200 million ++ to construct new mills but their warchest is unable to cope with it. I strongly believe a cash call is around the corner!

FR is one of the best plantation counters in the world. Everyone are talking on how much biodiesel can help in pushing CPO prices. Since FR has biodiesel plant this may help speculator to push the prices up!

P/S: I hold significant position in FR. Pls use your judgement before making any decision.

1st it is genneva not ginvera! Ginvera is a well known brand please don't get it mix. Please google the news for Genneva's gold scheme. Before criticizing others please search for how much genneva promise and how it works! There are tonnes of blogs recommending the authors picks. Maybe some of them just want to manipulate the price but some are sincere to share with us what their findings are. We should exercise our own judgement and not follow blindly whatever others said (even though it is recommended by Warren)!

2nd ugly free cash flow! Of course the free cash flow will be ugly. The trees are immature and they are spending tonnes of million to construct new mills! Oil palm need 4 years for fruit but 4-6 yo trees some time can't even cover the cost. It only enter prime period after 7 yo and it reach its max after 10 yo. Warren did say that money spent on replacing ppe for survival are considered as capex whereas money spend on growing business are not considered as capex. Moreover the excessive spending will stop after the completion of palm oil mills construction in 2014. Even there is a lag it may only last until 2016.
In Mandarin this is a typical example for 读死书！

3rd Super high P/E. Please understand that this is a cyclical counter! When the super low the commodity price is at its peak! You can going to buy high sell low if you chase for low P/E! For those who wish to get the proof please check commodities prices, eps and p/e of cyclical counters like crude, CPO, logs and etc. Again this is another classical example of 读死书！

Last- debt! Lol. This is a public listed company they will go for cash call when they are short of cash. If not why the big bosses list their company? For fun? To boost their reputation? To share the wealth with everyone? Please a public listed company is there to acquire funds from the general public!

I am not saying that this is the best counter to invest but we should have a longer term business view when we are analyzing rather than follow blindly from the books. Last even though Jtiasa may not be a good counter to invest but it still has its own value, it is not as bad as what someone claims.

My comment is the cash and profit margin is good and the business is monopoly (for printing). Of course this is a deeply discount counter and a rerating or privatization is justifiable. However it is lack of growth. It still can serve as a high yield defensive counter but for those seeking for huge capital gain forget about it. They are not utilizing their warchest to make acquisition for the last few years! Indonesia's land are so cheap! If the management are really ambitious they should acquire more than 100k ha of land up to date.

Bro 1 lot is just RM 3,500. Even after the recent margin mark up it is jut RM 4000. Thus you had already made more than 100%!

Lol. Nikamir do i have to show you MPOB's data to prove that Kelantan's yield is the lowest among all the states in Malaysia?
Below is the link for 2012 and 2013 FFB from MPOB
http://bepi.mpob.gov.my/images/Yield/Yield-2013/FFB%20Yield%20(July-December)%202013.pdf
Moreover Tan Sri Lee Kim Yew had just failed his grower scheme last year.

As i said previously it's ridiculous for palm oil to reach RM 3k since the price spread between soy oil and palm oil is around USD35/tonne. Palm oil is competitive because it is cheaper than soy oil. Consumers will switch to other competitive oils when palm oil prices are too high. Without supply shortage palm oil at RM 3k is totally ridiculous. Bear in mind according to forecast USA is going to have a record planting of 81 million acres this year! Oil world keep on hightlighting there is abundant supply in vege oils!I don't know how the palm oil price can go but without El-Nino or La-Nina RM 3k is totally ridiculous!

Lol. I am not questioning the intelligence of the analysts. Being an analyst for sure they are pretty smart. However how netural their stance are? Bear in mind they are sell side analysts! They are paid to induce the retailers to trade! Besides that they can't issue a sell even though they are covering a piece of crap! If not the company will stop them from acquiring information from the management. Since the first day I started to invest a lot of veterans keep warning the ameteurs not to trust the research report published by the brokers blindly! They even reveal which broker published the worst report! There are tonnes of research and survey shows that sell sides will never issue a sell, and worst their buy call is higher than 90%! That's why I always call sell side as long side since whatever reasons given they will still issue a buy!

By the way the commdoties prices are cyclical. We can't use the past 10 years as a benchmark as the last decade is a commodity boom. For the last decade planters had over expanded their acreage! The brokers will never tell you Indonesia agriculture had projected CPO growth from 24 million tonnes to 28 million tonnes. Malaysia's CPO is projected to be slightly higher than last year at 19million++.

Biodiesel's tender in Indonesia had failed. According to Bloomberg the Indon's industry players had said the Indonesian just simply don't trust biodiesel since they scare their engine will be destroy!Besides that there are too much islands in Indon, it is hard for them to have a proper execution! If CPO goes too high biodiesel will never be competitive. On the other hand, there is no supply issue on crude. With the emergence of shale and tight oil US is going to export crude.

For those who said Indonesia's tree are way too old to produce should take note that the aggresive expansion was started after 2000. Oil palm trees can produce up to 25 years old even though the production will started to drop after they reach 18 y.o. The truth is Malaysia's trees are way too old to produce. The classical example is Felda! Over 55% of their trees are above 25 y.o. Bear in mind they are the largest planter base on landbank. I just couldn't understan why they didn't have a proper replanting plan.

U.S. just had a good harvest for soybeans on last year. Furthermore south american is expected to have a record harvest this year with 92 million tonnes projected for Brazil. On the other hand competitive vege oils like sunflower and rapeseed's production had recovered! The soyoil premium to palm oil is approaching a record low. If soyoil prices stay flat and palm oil prices go up further palm oil will lost its competitiveness.

Sell side will forever stay bullish because they need to promote the plantation counters to earn commissions and avoid termination of coverage from company's management. Last year some of them keep on saying how bullish palm oil is! Some projected it will recovered to RM 2.8k. Even though they did cut their forecast to RM 2.5- 2.6k at year end but palm prices had yet to break above RM 2.5k.

Of course I had not factored in El-Nino effect. If it did happen CPO may jump like mad. Hoever bear in mind the output will be significantly lower!