madiba

madiba | Joined since 2013-12-10

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2014-05-16 17:10 | Report Abuse

I am amazed and so very very HAPPY!!!

RECAP

My dealer did buy some for me today at 27.5-28 so I am happy! I am also happy to confirm that an exciting corporate announcement will be made on Thursday or Friday according to my source so don't get caught short.

Barring any drastic change in market conditions I expect the 30 sen resistance to break very soon as it moves higher to the 32 sen level. Happy trading and as usual this is not a buy/sell call. You make up your own mind. Have a great Thursday everyone!

London (2.48 pm)
14/05/2014 21:49

CURRENT

My dealer managed to sell some at 32 sen just now as it has reached my short term target. What an amazing profit return from 27.5 sen to 32 sen(+16%) in 4 days. God is amazing!!!

Looking forward to the announcement and looking forward to donating a substantial profit away to the poor & needy this weekend. I must keep my promise to God as He has blessed me over and over again in Mpay! I hope you guys will do the same too for this is grace from God!
Happy weekend!

London 10.08 am

Stock

2014-05-14 21:49 | Report Abuse

Good afternoon boys. Looks like it was a good day for all Mpayians.

RECAP from last Sunday posting:

The good news is that it says postpone and not cancel so my guess is that the stock will continue to drift in the beginning of the week but end higher than 27.5 sen next Friday unless market condition changes drastically. As for me I will be buying in again mid week in anticipation.
As usual you make up your own mind whether to buy or sell.

Have a great week ahead! (12.48 pm London).
11/05/2014 19:48


CURRENT

My dealer did buy some for me today at 27.5-28 so I am happy! I am also happy to confirm that an exciting corporate announcement will be made on Thursday or Friday according to my source so don't get caught short.

Barring any drastic change in market conditions I expect the 30 sen resistance to break very soon as it moves higher to the 32 sen level. Happy trading and as usual this is not a buy/sell call. You make up your own mind. Have a great Thursday everyone!

London (2.48 pm)

Stock

2014-05-11 19:48 | Report Abuse

Good afternoon boys. Happy Mothers' Day from London. Received an sms from my source on Saturday that the 'expected' announcement that was due out last week has been postpone to a later date. No reason given. Guess it was good that I took a cautionary stance as it was spot on and never broke through the anticipated resistance of 30 sen for last week.

The good news is that it says postpone and not cancel so my guess is that the stock will continue to drift in the beginning of the week but end higher than 27.5 sen next Friday unless market condition changes drastically. As for me I will be buying in again mid week in anticipation.
As usual you make up your own mind whether to buy or sell.

Have a great week ahead! (12.48 pm London).

Stock

2014-05-06 22:19 | Report Abuse

Tea break just came in to check the postings. Good to hear everyone who has been faithful to the stock made some money, remember to bless some away please please. My average on buying the last two days (I did not buy any today) is around 24 sen and I do not think it will come back down to my level again so the worst is over.

However I do believe the stock will not break the 30 sen mark on a sustained basis in the short term (due to stale bulls overhang unless the volumes shoots up again) and I intend to take some profits off the table. After all making over 21% in 3 days on a vicious market is a real blessing. The good news is that with the submission of Mpay TRS project completed today according to the source I think we can look forward to a required consolidation between 27-32 sen next 1-2 weeks whereby the downside is limited. This is not an inducement to buy or sell. This is just my personal opinion.

The source indicates some interesting corporate announcement due out this week barring any unforeseen circumstances though I am unable to determine what it is all about. In short its a sell at 30 sen or higher for me on those I bought two days ago at 24 sen and to buy back again when it drops back to around 27-28 sen. I am still long on my other 50% position to evaluate the announcement if any before adding to my position.

Have a great evening guys. Keep up the good work and continue sharing vital information to encourage one another. Remember Mpayians must all voice out strongly against fake contributors with multiple ID's who are out to kill, steal or destroy the peace in this forum.
London 3.18 pm

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2014-05-06 16:18 | Report Abuse

Praise God for a wonderful surprise this morning! My purchase averages from the last two days has all turned around and making fantastic profits, am so thankful to applying the right strategy to buy as it goes down as expected to the 23 sen levels.

Looking at the volume and price build up (+17%) and considering that the TRS tender is closing today as indicated by my source, it does clearly indicate where the insiders boys are positioning themselves vis a vis Iris pitch.(+5%).

Just checked with my source and was told to expect a positive announcement on the corporate front by Friday although I am not expecting the price to go above 30 sen this week as it recovers from last week rout. Happy to say the worse is over though. Am off to work now but will drop by the local community centre to give some donation to the needy here.

Remember freely we give freely we shall receive and don't be nasty to one another!
Have a great day (London 9.18 am)

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2014-05-04 19:24 | Report Abuse

Good afternoon just a quick post to let everyone know what I found out after checking with my sources and my dealing broker. Maybe some of you can help me to dissect the information.

1) When I was selling last week at 38 sen the corresponding block buyer was RHB.
2) When I was buying last friday the selling block seller was also RHB??
3) My broker sent me an article appearing in The Edge this weekend about those ACE stocks that went limit down affecting the whole ACE market.

Incidentally it was mentioned in the Edge article that the broking company involved with those ACE companies and suffering major losses is RHB also. Does all this makes sense.? Can someone knowledgeable of syndicate moves help me to dissect this info please. Why would RHB be buying at 38 sen and selling at 26.5 sen?? How can they makes money out of this?

Secondly I was made to understand from a very reliable source that in fact the Customs reopened back the TRS tender recently and its due to be closed again only this Tuesday. Therefore collaborating this new information with another source in the industry previously, confirms the TRS results will be known sometime in June.

I hope this helps. As usual this is not a buy/sell call. You make up your own mind. I am just sharing and looking for answers as well. Bye. (12.23 pm London)

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2014-05-03 15:50 | Report Abuse

Good morning. May I say something now that my name has been abused countless times.

I have a job @ Battersea here in London and answering abusive forum is not my cup of tea. I do have a wonderful career here and certainly not a part of any syndicate which I deplore personally.

From Day one since my first posting way back in December 2013:

Fact One: I said clearly No Contra (NOT no selling if your own profit target is reached)

Fact Two : I have bought and sold Mpay 3 times from Jan- April which I have stated very openly to all , the last being a standing instruction to my dealer at 38 sen when the stock was still trading at 34 sen, (I clearly stated my TP was 38 sen prior to and the meaning of 'Let your profit run' was applied at that time when the stock was still @34 sen facing resistance at the 34-35 sen region (NOT 38 sen) as I expected the price to go to my TP of 38 sen which it did thereafter.

Fact Three: I left for London when the stock was still trading at 34 sen before it made a new high. Not when the stock was crumbling. I do have an excellent career here and stock investing is my part time pursuit which is the reason why I only monitor one stock in Malaysia for lack of time.

Fact Four: Mpay dropped from the contagion effect of the some other 4 ACE counters going limit down, its got nothing to do with Madiba being sinister as some claim unless you are also implying I have a hand in those 4 ACE counters too. Market conditions just deteriorated after it reached my TP of 38 sen and I was blessed to be able to sell 50% of my holding not because I was smart but purely because I left a good till cancelled standing instruction with my broker and it hit my target after I left for London. Indeed God blesses those who are not greedy and are willing to share their profits with their families, friends, poor and needy which I have always done. This is a key takeaway if anything else to learn.

Regardless there will be some who claim injustice from me because of this drop though I hasten to add that I have no share of your profits in which you may have made these last 4 months and neither am I interested in it save to tell you to give it away freely as always.

Whether you believe me or not is not important but I state clearly to you that I am buying on this expected short term down trend (please take some effort to read my last posting) and my dealer has been adding to my position last friday and shall continue to do so next week. Please do not take this as an inducement to buy or sell, you make up your own mind. I am only stating my position to buy since last week from this expected down-trend to the 23-28 sen region when it was trading at 30.5 sen. Please retrace my postings to check factually.

If you have no faith in Mpay getting the TRS contract or still intend to play contra please stay away from this stock. Please stay away from the warrants too as I have stated in my reasons earlier. It is true the stock is only worth 13 sen without the TRS contract so please assess your own risk reward.

As for me, my faith is in my gracious God and in Mpay getting the TRS. If you have no faith please do not buy this stock. I do not believe it will go down below 23 sen unless Mpay loses the contract or unless pushed down intentionally by syndicates to flush weak holders.

I apologize for this lengthy explanation but as you know I hardly have time to read and post being in a vibrant city like London. Please do not use nasty words on each other or on me. God sees and hears! For my detractors here is a video just for you with a message:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVbVrj_ZMng&sns=em

" Its a beautiful world out there, go out and be a blessing to others I pray "
Happy morning (8.48 am London)

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2014-05-01 00:41 | Report Abuse

Don't fight Mpayians. I was just lucky to leave instruction with my dealer to sell half at 38 sens before I left overseas. Otherwise I would still be 100% long instead of 50% now. Maybe luck came because I always believe in giving 10% of my mpay profits to the poor and needy. I believe that save me from this onslaught.

Ace counters are all jittery due to the four counters undergoing limit down recently and Mpay I was told was almost one of them. Let the dust settle next 1 week is my advice. It may settle anywhere between 23-28 sen but I am a buyer at these regions to replace back my sold positions. I apologize if I appear arrogant but my confidence is in my God and Mpay.

I am not part of a syndicate nor perfect in my analysis. Indeed Mpay has made me a lot of money but only God is perfect and I am grateful to the Almighty. Good evening from London.

5.40 pm

Stock

2014-04-30 08:54 | Report Abuse

Much has been happened since I am in London but work beckons@ Battersea project. Left 10 days ago when the stock was at 34 sen, it hit my TP @ 38 sen two days later (standing instruction for my dealer to sell half) and tonight I see it at 30.5 sen after apparently hitting a intra-day low of 19 sen?

My thoughts : Leaving the TRS contract aside, the increase volatility will only settle down late next week as the contra positions are unwounded (as mentioned before never play contra on this stock or buy the warrants either) . Since the support levels at 33-34 sen were broken I do not expect it to go above this level in the short term amidst greater volatility and selling pressure from contra holders near term. Having my dealer sold half my position last week and completely missed yesterday's correction (was sleeping actually) I have left instruction to my dealer to buy at the 28 sen region and the 23 sen region next 10 days as I expect further downside in the short term,

Having said that if all goes well I am looking at new highs by mid June as the TRS contract is confirmed then. Needless to say my thoughts and prayers are with those who have been greedy, have not given their earlier profits to the needy and insulting to others without contributing much other than gloat over their so called 'selling at the top or I told you so comments' Its always easy to these multiple user names who has a history of being banned to claim without real time proof and empty big rubbish bins always makes the most noise I suppose,

Time to sleep as Madiba never gets worked up over short term volatility or nonsense posted by those out to insult. Goodnight from London. (1.51 am)

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2014-04-23 21:26 | Report Abuse

Apologies for not posting earlier. Am off to London tonight for work so this will be my last posting before the weekend. Couple of observations this last 24 hours:

(1) The ESOS announcement requires AGM shareholders' approval and if approved, to be implemented in stages from the third quarter of 2014. No question of shares overhang in the immediate future in case you are wondering. Further an ESOS implementation for staff is a sign of confidence by the Board and management of Mpay so its positive signal

(2) The trading volume today is extremely low and having retraced these last two days, I am inclined to say that the downside is very limited even though its T+3 and T+4 next two days. Historically low volume days has been followed by big upward spikes so do expect something big to happen tomorrow or friday. Support remains at the 33-34 sen level.

(3) The analysis by silkyhawk posted by ellesse is very interesting considering the technical projections confirms my longer run fundamental, corporate and statistical analysis for Mpay although very differing in analytical methods. My fundamental value of Mpay with the TRS contract is 50 sen with an adjusted forward NTA of 30 sen moving forward.

(4) Last friday Mpay closed at 34 sen and I do not expect this friday closing to be below that. The longer it builds its base around this 34-35 sen mark the higher it will go. I will not be surprised that the initial TP of 38 sen will be achieved sooner rather than later.

(5) Food for thought:

If we assume that the Malaysia TRS contract is in the bag for Mpay (all indications seems to point that way) then we should benchmark Mpay with GHLSys market cap since both are in payment systems. Mpay valuation and earnings will play catching up with its recurrent income from the TRS. If so given that GHLSys market cap is circa RM 365m, that imputes Mpay has the potential to be comparatively valued at 365/402 = 90 sen over next 12-18 months if it decides to expand regionally to Singapore, Thailand or Indonesia with a wider payment footprint and income base.

All the best Mpayians! Grace and peace be upon all of you!
Freely you give freely you shall receive.

Stock

2014-04-22 10:33 | Report Abuse

That is incorrect DreamM. Please read the Mpay announcement below:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1589897

TRS management/operational control 70% Malaysia owned (of which 20% is Bumiputera) and capturing the expertise of all 3 parties ie Mpay (payment system), Global Tax Free (TRS) , ETRS (Retail)

whilst Iris 51% : Global Blue 49% but operational control belongs to the foreigners (SWISS).

In the Malaysia business context which one do you think is likely to get approval from a protective Umno led government trying to empower local companies? One clue is simply how Mpay has performed since the Mpay placement was made to Dato Dahlan at 15 sen and now the stock is trading at 35 sen making new highs every week whilst Iris did its placement at 51 sen and the stock is trading below at 49.5 sen and off its high of 65 sen,

No brainer where the insiders are buying and selling last three months.

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2014-04-22 10:16 | Report Abuse

Most welcome pputeh and please take note that when ever Mpay takes a breather of 1-2 sen on light selling volume it is a prelude to another spike up sooner or later. I am expecting some good news again this Friday since the company has a history of announcing good news on Fridays which the stock reacts very positively historically. Some stats that you should be aware of.
Have a great day.

Stock

2014-04-22 09:57 | Report Abuse

Pputeh the announcement by Iris is old news but Iris has decided to release it now (Ag executed last year 9 Dec 2013) to try to find buying support for their stock since it tanked from a high of 65 sen to current 49.5 sen and below Iris recent private placement price of 51 sen too. The listed bidders ie Mpay and Iris were revealed already in an article on The Edge in January 2014.

My view is biased but my take is very simple if you read through the contents of the Iris Ag and compare with that of Mpay with regards to the proposed JV:

1) Iris 51% Malaysian owned vs Mpay 70% Malaysian owned on the JV;
2) Iris Bumiputera direct stake 0% vs Mpay Bumiputera direct stake 20%;
3) Iris expertise (e-passports) vs Mpay expertise (MOF graded online payment/refund systems);
4) Bumiputera leadership : Felda (plantation) vs Dato Dahlan (tax free shopping@airports); and
5) TRS management/operational control : vested in Global Blue (Swiss) vs Mpay (Malaysian).

Your guess is as good as mine but my money has been with Mpay since 14 sen and this announcement by Iris actually gives me greater confidence who will win the contract likely to be announced in June. Thank you.

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2014-04-22 09:10 | Report Abuse

Be a blessing to others. If you have something encouraging to say please say it but if what comes out of the mouth is filth and rubbish then please take it somewhere else for it reflects badly back to your true self and May God have mercy on you.

Freely we receive freely we give. A kind mind and giving heart put into action will reap bountiful grace and blessings from Mpay. A vulgar, rude and callous mind and mouth will inevitably end up in a bankrupt life void of hope, care and if you do decide to wallow or gloat in your money made instead of blessing some to others, you will surely lose it all and more.

Stock

2014-04-21 11:24 | Report Abuse

Trust me when I say come this Friday the closing will not be below 36 sen on the mother and 36 sen is not the high for the week either. Let your profits run Mpayians.

Short consolidation expected only on Wednesday-Thursday before resuming the up trend on Friday. On target for 37-38 sen this week.

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2014-04-20 17:06 | Report Abuse

Chelseazola my portfolio for Mpay consist of the ratio 5:1 in unit terms for the mother:warrant.
Looking at the balance tenure till expiry for the warrant in light of the expected continued strong uptrend until end May for the mother share and based on the black scholes model, the warrant is fairly valued at 23.5 sen ie premium of 28% over the mother share at 34 sen.

Any upside 1 sen movement in the mother share hereon should have an equivalent similar sen movement in the warrant pricing. Therefore if the mother share closes at 37-38 sen this friday then the warrant should be around 26.5-27.5 sen. However I caution against a portfolio that is warrant heavy because that would be asking for trouble. Its a highly speculative trading instrument and not for investment.

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2014-04-20 12:35 | Report Abuse

935win Mpay is not a contra stock but I trust next Friday closing will not be less that 36 sen. it should not close below 33 sen this week. Friday is the day to watch for upswings whilst intra-day corrections of 1-1.5 sen from previous close are great buying opportunities.,

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2014-04-20 11:23 | Report Abuse

There is really no need to dream west or east. For those who bought since January dreams have come true and for those who bought instead of sold last week you will realize your dream investment in the coming 3-4 weeks if you hold. Never a contra stock and the warrants are great trading instruments on a strong uptrend which we will be experiencing in the coming weeks up to mid May.

Am expecting more news this coming week especially next friday since most good corporate announcements have come out end week and the stock normally jumps thereafter. If we assume this week to be a better week given greater clarity on the Bumiputera agenda compared to last week (+6% or 2 sen) we should be looking at an upward movement of 3-4 sen minimum or a closing of around 37-38 sen on friday. May God's blessings and favor be upon you especially those with a giving heart.

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2014-04-20 09:19 | Report Abuse

Good morning to all. Joy, peace and hope to all Mpayians for when we commit to God to give a certain % or zakat to the needy & poor you will see many folds returns from this stock. Freely you give freely you shall receive. I have committed and practiced this from January and the blessings and peace from Mpay has been in abundance. Test it with a truthful heart and you will be blessed too.

Stock

2014-04-19 12:19 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the technical input gerry188 and pzul I think you are both correct. Barring any drastic change in market conditions the up trend will continue the whole of April until mid May before a long consolidation during summer. This latest rally has plenty of stamina and will be the strongest rally. It will continue to spike up after intermittent consolidation along the way.

Appreciate all the good value added sharing! I am totally against contributors who intently mock, bad talk others, talk c!@# without any proven real time basis posting to back it up that carries zero credibility especially those with multiple user names who has been repeatedly banned.

Though this Mpay Forum is open to the public we have a duty to watch what we say as it reflects on the person we really are inside. Lets all encourage good sharing and safeguard/stand up against those who persistently use bad language in this forum.

After all at the end of the day we Mpayians just want to make some above average investment return with calculated risk to help our families/friends along & give to the needy/poor.

Thus far Mpay and Mpay-W has risen 162% and 370% respectively since beginning of the year. These are amazing returns! Be thankful always to God Almighty. More blessings to come.

Near term support: 33 sen. Next immediate TP: 37-38 sen.

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2014-04-18 20:22 | Report Abuse

What is more important than the gender or race is the person inside...I am HAPPY AND THANKFUL ALWAYS!!!

You guys realise that this week amongst all the high beta stocks ie Datasonic, GHL, IRIS, MyEG, Mpay only 1 manage to go up substantially in an amazing downward volatile week.
Mpay is up another 6% this week and up 26% this month alone so far compared to March ending.

Enjoy the ride, this next up leg has plenty of stamina. The 33-34 sen levels will turn to be the support levels as it moves above 35 sen next week. Since I do not read charts may I humbly ask the chartists out there what the charts are projecting? Thank you in advance.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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2014-04-18 12:55 | Report Abuse

Have faith Mpayians. Let the profit run. Don't get caught short or under invested. This is the next leg to above 35 sen mother and above 25 sen warrant respectively. I Madiba salute you for your discipline and patience. It will surely be another up week for Mpay having close at 32 sen last Friday. This announcement was the confirmation I mentioned yesterday and this morning.
Writing on the wall no brainer where it is flying to next.


Please zakat & give 10% to the poor & needy from your profits gained.
Have a great week everyone!

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2014-04-18 10:52 | Report Abuse

Observing the selling volume so far this morning holding steady at 32 sen mother and 22 sen warrant I can conclude the signs are imminent for another strong up leg. I don't think there is any announcement on the TRS just yet (buy on rumour sell on fact if that is the case) as that is expected only sometime in June I believe.

However sources did indicate some good announcement out soon which will indicate the writing on the wall. No brainer where it is heading next. Unlikely to drop any further here-on.
Both mother share and warrants looks likely to go up further to break its previous high of 34 sen and 25 sen respectively.

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2014-04-17 15:00 | Report Abuse

Retracement over Mpayians. Time to rock and roll again! Tomorrow will be an awesome day!

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2014-04-17 09:50 | Report Abuse

The stock has a history of popping up after a period of 2-3 days of low volume. A close above 30 sen this friday indicates base building with the long term trend is still intact. Today will be the second day of low volume going by the trading activity this morning.

We may see something happening tomorrow going by historical trends possibly some positive announcement on corporate development on the new Bumiputera shareholders since I do not expect the TRS award to be revealed just yet. A predominantly Chinese company like Mpay can never win major government contracts without a significant influential Bumiputera role.
An affirmation of that change would be another writing on the wall.

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2014-04-17 07:51 | Report Abuse

My sincere apologies to you optimusprime or whoever you are. There is really no need to hide behind a facade of multiple usernames ( 8 so far) posting and losing sleep at 2.30 am to make unsubstantiated claims about another stock in the wrong forum. Forgive me if I prefer to just concentrate my investments in Mpay. I have no interest in what you claim to make in any other stock. If you have something value add to share about Mpay without going into vulgarities you are most welcome. Thank you.

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2014-04-16 21:23 | Report Abuse

Thank you forum moderator. Well done!

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2014-04-16 20:53 | Report Abuse

Lets forgive this same person in africantea aka OptimusX8 aka Optimus7 aka Angelina2 aka lanparhai aka jackson87. All banned by the forum moderator for repeated abusive language including lanparhai and jackson87 soon I think. I wonder what name he is popping back next?? Serious personal flawed character issues and totally need to get his life straighten out.
Totally mental!

Whatever it is he lacks credibility and total disrespect for others. What's worse his egoistic boast of his so called KNM-W trade is a total make believe as he has zero track record of any postings in the KNM Forum either. He is badly in need of prayer and mental therapy.

Harap dia akan insaf dan taubat

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2014-04-16 08:05 | Report Abuse

Limit down is a possibility if both Dato Dahlan and Mr Chew were force to sell down their equity or Mpay did not secure the TRS contract. However given that both recently bought at the 29-30 sen level plus executing the Agreement with the Korean TRS operator, the likelihood of a limit down for Mpay is remote.

Further in despite of the huge sell off in some ACE counters yesterday Mpay only dropped 1 sen showing strong resilience above 30 sen. As said earlier this should pan out and normalize by end week. Even if Mpay closes at 30 sen this friday it does not alter the corporate changes and fundamental prospects of Mpay with the new Bumiputera shareholders leading the way.

Support 30 sen. Resistance 33 sen. TP 35-38 sen.
Daily band : 2 sen. No contra.

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2014-04-15 22:47 | Report Abuse

Today's trading was skewed by the double whammy effect of:

(1) Datasonic's huge plunge that catalyst jittery sell orders into other ACE counters in particular those that had performed exceptionally well like Mpay;

(2) Restriction and limitation of Buy trades from several stock broking houses in Malaysia limiting their clients's net exposure to ACE counters of which Mpay was one of them.

In light of this onslaught of sell orders skewed by the above in one trading day, Mpay did test its support levels at the 30 sen mark but closing off low to 31.5 sen. This short term imbalance of supply and demand is short term in nature and should normalise over time.

Given that the last two days were heavy delivery days from last week's huge volume, it is gratifying to note that the selling volume on Mpay has been relatively light under the circumstance and it is still holding up above the 30 sen support level. The longer it stays above this level the better the support base as per past experiences of building support bases above previous resistance levels.

Moving forward I am expecting more news on the corporate front for Mpay as the timeline writing on the wall is pretty clear ie GST Bill approved in Parliament, Dato Dahlan buying, Signing of Agreement with the Korean TRS operator, Mr Chew buying....

Only thing not fulfilled thus far is the appointment of new bumiputera directors to lock in the deal.
I however do not expect the TRS award in April and its more likely to be sometime end May or early June so the Mpay run still has plenty of legs and momentum, technical supply and demand issues aside.

Buy on rumor sell on fact always. So hang tight unless the support level of 30 sen is broken due to the supply/demand reasons mentioned above. Corporate wise it still looks like all system go!

Support: 30 sen
Resistance: 33 sen.
Daily trading band: 2 sen
Target : 35-38 sen.

Goodnight Mpayians!

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2014-04-14 10:01 | Report Abuse

10 am holding well at 32-32.5 sen. For those buying or trading today I Madiba salute you for your foresight. Support 31-32 sen. Resistance 33 sen. Once broken next resistance 35 sen.

Have a great day everyone!

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2014-04-12 17:45 | Report Abuse

Well said gerry188. Assuming the base case scenario that Mpay remains constant at 32 sens until April 2015, the warrants pricing will fall to around 12 sen even if the mother remains flat over time. This time value of 11.5 sens (23.5 + 20 sen cash conversion- mother share 32 sen) will devalue as it gets nearer to expiry date next year.

No doubt great instruments to tap into in a raging bull market given its smaller paid up and leverage but terrible instruments to hold when the market turns unexpectedly. If we project Mpay to be at 38 sen by end month (up 19%) then the theorectical value of Mpay-W should be around 30 sen (+28%). But on the other hand if Mpay ends up at 25 sen (-22%) over time, the warrant will worth only 5 sen ( down a whopping -78%) . If you have a need and stomach for speed go for for it but as for me I want to get home safely with spare change even if things break down. Anyway the boss man Mr Chew has already clearly indicated his stance ie sell the warrant and buy the mother; do you want to go against that?

Mpay-W is like your sexy new girlfriend who gives you the thrills but she will surely make you dead broke if you are not careful. Its cloudy here in Pudong Shanghai temperature a cool 16 C. Have a nice evening and remember to do your zakat/give to the needy with your gains from Mpay.

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2014-04-12 00:14 | Report Abuse

Looking at the filings late friday by Mr Chan, it is a clear confirmation Mr Chew bought from Mr Chan's disposal as the quantity ie 15 million and the price is exactly the same ie RM 0.29 sen.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1592421
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1591485

That equation means Mr Chew did not buy from the market or Dato Dahlan which is a relief for reasons stated in my earlier analysis before Mr Chan did his filings.

Correspondingly this means the run up this week to 32 sens closing with a high of 34 sens was not fuelled by Mr Chew's buying in the market which is excellent news because that means some other group is buying loads but layered which I suspect is Dato Dahlan's men.

All these are good news. What is interesting now is that we actually know the support buying levels for the two big guys ie 29 sens for Mr Chew and 30 sens for Dato Dahlan looking at their past filings. So expect strong support at these levels moving forward with a target of around 35-38 sens when overseas markets stabilizes and the contra players are absorbed on Monday. A closing above 33 sens will trigger another wave of buying I trust.

32 sens Buy: Stop loss 30 sens. Upside 38 sens.
Risk to reward ratio 2:6. Expected return 18%.
Holding period 2 weeks.

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2014-04-11 17:22 | Report Abuse

Sorry just pop in to check the latest. Am still travelling.

Good news on Mr Chew's purchase but a deeper analysis is required as to who sold him the block? Buying the mother share and selling the warrants seems a good hedge on his part given that the warrants pricing are looking stretched as he affirms his confidence in his own stock. It is always a good sign to see owners buying their own stock but we need to analyse also where it came from.

If it was from the market or from Dato Dahlan I will be very worried on two counts:

1) Mr Chew is already holding in excess of 30% and cannot possibly buy any more from the market without triggering an MGO@33% since he controls the Board. In this scenario the upside is limited because he has to stop buying or else he will trigger an MGO at 29 sens.

2) If it was from Dato Dahlan I am even more disturbed because that means the Bumiputera is exiting and that is bad news since we are expecting them to deliver the TRS contract.

Lets hope its none of the above and the best case scenario is Mr Chew bought it from Mr Chan instead. We all know what happens to the stock whenever Mr Chan sells don't we. It pops upwards soon after.

Given the heavy delivery seen today and also anticipated on Monday in light of jittery overseas markets it is assuring and confidence building that Mpay tested the support @ 31 sens
(as highlighted earlier in my last analysis dated 09 April) and closed at 32 sens Friday today. Week on week it has risen 8.5% this week after rising 13.5% the previous week. Looks like its building up to a fantastic month of April as anticipated. More to come I believe.

If it is proven that Mr Chan sold to Mr Chew and the stock holds up on Monday above 31 sens closing do expect the rally to continue upwards later part of the week. Support levels @ 31 sens and 29 sens respectively. Target 35-38 sens intact unless support levels broken and or the above (1) or (2) occurs.

I am off to Shanghai this weekend. Take care everyone!

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2014-04-09 22:07 | Report Abuse

Sorry ran777 and zmgoh I am in Hong Kong therefore did not track today's performance but just to recap what I said dated on 1 April when Mpay was still trading @ 27 sen trying to break its strong resistance then at 27.5 sen.

HISTORICAL RECAP
Last month consolidation over and April is a good month for Mpay to rally into mid May to new highs above 35 sen based on greater thematic investor interest in GST related counters as the GST Bill gets passed through Parliament, corporate development on the TRS front and increase buying from Dato Dahlan directly or indirectly.

The current resistance at 27-27.5 sen will be broken and turn into a support line I trust.
01/04/2014 09:00

CURRENT WHAT WE KNOW
7 April - The GST Bill was passed in Parliament and on the same day Dato Dahlan announced he was increasing his equity in Mpay and disposing placement shares directly to his nominees (not in the market).

8 April - Mpay announced a definitive Agreement entered into between the Korean TRS operator and Dato Dahlan's company ETRS. Further details in Bursa announcement out late this evening:

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1589897

The stock has moved up 18% so far in April from end March 27 sens to current 32 sens today.

MY ANALYSIS

It is not a coincidence that Mpay is gathering steam moving up in tandem with the GST Bill approval and timing of the announcements. These new Bumiputera shareholders (direct and layered) obviously knows what is happening behind the scene and is managing the price uptrend as the thematic play on GST counters gathers more interests based on the average daily volume of 18 million a day in April versus daily average of 8 million only in March (increase of over >100%)

I am still long on my third round at 30.5 sens and I believe any short term pull back to this level presents fantastic buying opportunities. I believe although the warrants represents a fantastic leverage instrument to make a fast trading profit, the 34% premium over the mother share is far too high a risk for me personally to bear in case my analysis is wrong therefore I still prefer the mother share although I admit my total overall averages are near the 20 sens level.

I would be on the lookout for further buying by either Dato Dahlan or Mr Chew as a sweetener confirmation of further upside and some new bumiputera appointments onto the Board of Mpay as a confirmation of a revitalised Mpay horse moving to the 35-38 sens level target in anticipation of of the Customs contract. Once confirmed that Mpay has secured the TRS contract the stock is worth 50 sens fundamentally 12 months forward (not immediate). The beginning of April series of corporate announcements and explosive stock movement in light of greater GST theme play seems to point to that exactly. Expect more sweeteners I say.

Food for thought...If Mpay's movement next 30 days replicates its February movement of 68% upside (from 16 to 27 sens then) we are looking at 45 sens by mid May. I dare to pray and hope its true but nevertheless I believe 35-38 sens is achievable on this run. Support at 30.5-31 sens and target 38 sens. Thank you and goodnight from Hong Kong.

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2014-04-08 16:57 | Report Abuse

Well done Mpayians. Up another 5% today to another all time closing high of 32 sens.
Madiba SALUTE you!. It will be another up day tomorrow. Congratulations.

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2014-04-08 11:32 | Report Abuse

Salute Mpayians. Let it ride. Next stop 35-38 sens. Congratulations for your trading and investing discipline. More to come.

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2014-04-08 10:06 | Report Abuse

Let make another fun bet. Who says 32 sens Mpay and 23 sens for the Mpay-w currently at 10 am is a trading Buy or a Sell? You know my position..

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2014-04-08 08:17 | Report Abuse

Great!

Thats fantastic buying opportunity for those who missed out the two days of short term pull-back on Mpay. I bought at 0.305 sen third round yesterday. Historically proven that on every intra-day pull-back of 1-2 sens presents fantastic buying opportunity.

The GST Bill passed in Parliament late yesterday will provide the next round of domestic thematic play on GST related counters as mentioned before last month when Mpay was trading below its resistance of 27.5 sen. Likewise as news flow gets stronger on this theme the 32 sens previous high on Mpay will be broken soon.

Further with the GST Bill in the bag I expect Mpay to make more announcements of its involvement in the GST related area. On target for 35-38 sens regardless of overseas weakness.
By the way the DJIA futures for tonight's trading is already green so don't get whipped out here on short term weakness. Have a great day everyone!

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2014-04-07 21:33 | Report Abuse

What I make I give to zakat and to bless other people in need. There are many unfortunate people worse off than us and we should be thankful that we have not lost money in Mpay. Being able to give is a blessing from God. We should give freely and but be mindful of unkind words.

My only comment about that hater is that obviously OptimusX8, Optimus7, TheOptimus and angelina2 are the same one person and suffering from some serious identity and mental disorder.
You have my sympathy. Unfortunately no matter how much brickbat you are throwing at me is not going to make you even one sen. Mpay continues to go up, blessing me and other Mpayians so that we can bless others in need. Please do not waste your time on me. I am only a very small investor.

As for the market ,as usual the last laugh belongs to the faithful respectful Mpayians who are willing to share useful information, learning from one another, taking some profits along the way but remaining invested in the stock on every minor pull back like last Friday 28 sens region buying opportunity.

Even traders have been well rewarded in such a short time let alone value investors like me who has been investing since my first round of buying @ 14 sens and second round @ 23 sens respectively. I bought my third round at 30.5 sens today.

For the faithful Mpayians holding stock you are having the last laugh compared to the bears out there because Mpay is currently at its all time closing high. It is heading towards the 35 - 38 sens region very soon. I Madiba SALUTE all Mpayians for your investing and trading discipline! Be blessed with your gains big or small and please do your zakat to help the needy. Thank you.

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2014-04-07 14:15 | Report Abuse

Some massive buying going on behind the scene and its being layered to avoid public disclosure by the Bumiputera nominees directly. The Disposal was not in the market but married to nominees of ETRS. Finally confirms who has been buying up the stock. Its the powerful Bumiputera Dato Dahlan and his nominees directly and indirectly layered. All systems go!

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2014-04-07 12:18 | Report Abuse

Let make a fun bet now.
Who says at 0.305 sen current is a Buy and who says 0.305 is a Sell at this moment 12.18 pm ?

I humbly say if I am a trader today 0.305 is a BUY!

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2014-04-07 11:09 | Report Abuse

I have no doubt in my mind that tomorrow and this week is a strong week for Mpay so whatever price intra day is a great opportunity to buy much like last Friday for those who trades. The stock is going to 35-38 sens sooner or later in April. Thank you,

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2014-04-04 17:15 | Report Abuse

Hope nobody got hurt by the expected pull back. What a ride and what a recovery to close only marginally down 0.005 sen to 0.295 sen. Excellent buying opportunity for those who got it and very resilient considering the low was 0.275 sen on a heavy contra day.

Week on week its up 13.5 % from 26 sen last friday to current 29.5 sen.
Have a great weekend everyone.

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2014-04-03 20:34 | Report Abuse

Have faith my friends when an old passive original substantial shareholder who is not on the Board nor involved in the operations of the company sells and the stock still goes up that means only three things;

1) Change of old guard to more powerful shareholders ie the Bumiputeras with the right connections and contracts; the shareholding changes are layered thus far to avoid public disclosure but most definitely somebody or some powerful group has been accumulating. I suspect its Dato Dahlan, ETRS or their nominees directly or indirectly.

(2) Something massive is cooking and it won't stop the up trend. The sale has had no impact whatsoever to the overall corporate re-evaluation of Mpay earnings moving forward with the TRS contract secured.

(3) By the time confirm news comes out that Mpay has secured the TRS contract it will have moved to its fullest upside potential and then consolidate for a long period. In the meanwhile Mpay will continue its run up to May with April having the biggest upside.

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2014-04-03 16:01 | Report Abuse

Thank you gerry188.

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2014-04-03 15:15 | Report Abuse

Yes optimus7 you are obviously very geram for the gracious support and good language chelseazola, gerry188, ran777, dailyblessings and zmgoh has shown. Indeed we are all learning and thankful to God for allowing us to make some good money from Mpay. We encourage good attitude to learn and share with each other sensibly and respectfully.

Since I am not proficient in trading using charts can someone (optimus7 excluded) please share what the charts are showing or indicating at the moment?.To me Mpay is heading up to 35-38 sens this month. Thank you in advance.

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2014-04-03 13:57 | Report Abuse

Optimus7 I forgive you for your bad language and please
do more zakat to tahan your geram. In any case I know your
actual track record aka optmusx8. Lets not waste each other's
time when put to the test. Thank you.