historical per is between 2.74 to 9.13 in the profitable years.

Icon8888, what is the size of the image(l*b) and maximum size of file uploadable and can fit into this blog? Thanks

Sorry the graph was not shown.
Probably the size is too big.

hi sosfinance, The site calculation of data is wrong for the 3 averages. The average 4.13% over the last 10years cannot be less than the lowest in that period of 4.5% in 2008. Doesn't seem logical.

The average EPF return over the last 20years is wrongly stated here It is not 4.53% rather it is 6.01%. Thus many of the statements are not valid.

It is very important to note that the mean FFB production for Sarawak since 1987 per year per ht is 15 tons. Your production graph from J Tiasa is very misleading and grossly wrong for Sarawak. Even in Perak, the ideal site the mean is 21tons. J Tiasa can dream. Their production graph will never be a reality for them.

Beware listening to market prediction of others may be detrimental to your financial health. It will blur your vision of facts that are truly important. Avoid the broadcasting booth.

A super investor?
Hack! thats wishful thinking.
Most of us are just part time speculators.
We do not have the resources to make an educated informed decision.

We are are not loaded with $$$$ to move the market.
We need to work to fulfil Maslow's hierarchy of needs.
The meagre savings we eeked out from it goes to punting the stock market hoping lady luck will keep smiling on us.

It nice to learn how to be a super investor.
That is learning, but being one is altogether a different story.
We are frequently the last to receive the valuable tip, hence the last to buy during or just before the peak.
Yes, experiencing the buyer's remorse.
We are the last to receive the news to sell, converting the trade into an investment.

It never easy to find the upside in an upside down world.
There is ambivalence and procrastination even if the info is real.
Unfortunately we have the empty empathy gap.
We are subjected to numerous behavioural emotions usually making poor decisions.

In a crisis, there is an opportunity to catch the fallen knives.
Unfortunately timing the falling knives can be hazardous.

We all know what we want and where to get it, unfortunately we may not know how to go there or whats it like.
We may be in denial even when we missed the way.
This delusion of competency is universal in many of us.

This discussion of super investor seems like a course in Financial astrology.

We seek alpha and forsake beta but pun with delta.

gark

You are right in pointing out the importance of soil type in the cultivation of oil palm.

Unfortunately for many novice planters they lack deep peat experience, hence their inability to improve FFB productivity and OER. They are just mimic the results of the peat experience of the 1960's. The scenario has changed dramatically since the 1980's. Now with the proper clones, proper irrigation, sufficient fertilisers and in its right proportion the yeild has improved tremendously by up to 70%, matching the experience of many other favourable areas.

Of course their profit/HT is and will be inferior to riverine alluvial soils even with these improved methodology.

FFA content is independant of soil types. Its relevance here?

KhoCL

The production is per tonne of FFB not CPO.
The production cost is in RM not USD.
It is not cost effective as compare with industrial standard.
Converted to CPO the cost (RM329.68/14.93%) is RM2208 for FY2013
Their average selling price of CPO in that year is RM2280.
The profit is thus RM2280-RM2208=RM72 per tonne of CPO.

The production of FFB/HT is low by industrial standard for palms of that age group in mature land.
The charts from UPB studies in deep peat and that from Annual report of JTiasa 2012
are grossly different. I do not subscribe to the fact that theirs will be better than UPB.

KhoCL

The data for J Tiasa is as follows:

Date FFB/ht OER CPO/Ht cost/ffb
Apr-10 12.39 \\ \\ $293.19
Apr-11 12.19 17.92% 1.18 $253.39
Jun-12 13.59 13.88% 1.25 $319.39
Jun-13 13.85 14.93% 1.25 $329.68

Notice the OER is not that low as you specified as their oil milling capacity is less than the FFB production, hence part of the FFB is sold. One need to deduct the FFB sold before calculating the OER. Their OER is low 13-18% partly due to the age of the palms. Of course the young palms OER usually is about 14%. There is therefore cause for concern.

Their FFB production was overstated in FY2012 as this is a 14th month FY. I have corrected for their ?intentional oversight.

Their FFB/HT is still very low for industrial standard of matured palms.
Obviously they lack deep peat expertise.

Their reference production chart in the Annual report of 2012 is questionable as it deviate from the studies done by UPB on deep peat. The spike in J Tiasa price in 2012 can be partly attributed to the optimistic chart.

I have reservation that J Tiasa will attain FFB/HT of more than 25 tonnes/HT in future it is more likely that their production is less than the industrial standard of 20/HT

The J Tiasa chart is taken from their 2012 annual report.
This chart does not look accurate.
Their land will not mimic that chart.
It contradicts the studies on deep peat from UPB - United Plantation Berhad.

J Tiasa starting planting in 2002 and the peak planting excercise is 2008.
About 81.9% of their trees are matured in FY2013.

Their production data from their annual reports are below:

FY FFB/ht OER CPO/Ht cost/ton ffb
Apr-10 12.39277011 / / $293.19
Apr-11 12.18768561 17.92% 1.183923975 $253.39
Jun-12 13.59472461 13.88% 1.248242871 $319.39
Jun-13 13.84507864 14.93% 1.246953442 $329.68

To produce 27 ton of FFB/HT seems very elusive at this stage.
Even UPB the most efficiency producer could only do that 3 out of 10.
The industrial standard is still less than 20 tonnes FFB/HT.

As a novice in the field, I very much doubt J Tiasa can be better than the average industrial producer.
Their future data will dissapoint.

J Tiasa seemed to have peaked at the end of last Week when it finished the 4th Elliot wavelet and targeted the 5th downward wave with support @RM2 or RM1.80. There was a big afford to keep the price above RM2.04 on the 31st Dec 2013, when it dropped below the 200days moving average. This effort accompanied the prices to the near 50days moving average. Unfortunately it failed to close above it last week.

It is cheap but it can be cheaper.

The Biodiesel story is not new. It failed to take off before and unlikely to do so in the near future, more so with the advent of shale oil.