Ha ha .... I guess it is my fault...... Give too much creditbility to Probability..... He is just another Calvin from now on.... Cheer...:-)

PROBABILITY...... Where is the event you said yesterday that will happen today.? Not happening??


Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD
Apr 12, 2018 09:51 PM | Report Abuse

with the blessings of Holy spirit and Virgin Mary....

we are about to witness tomorrow something that has never been witnessed before!!

Ha ha ..... everyone flip positive after buy and then flip negative after sell .... then flip positive ...negative ...positive etc non stop.... don’t follow...... dumb dumb hold..... the fundamental of company cannot change over hour, night or week....month.... all trader now......:-) 3q 17 crack spread also less than 10 lah..... still record earning....... crack spread is not the only factor.....no one predict correctly...... trust HY management lah..... oops... I am blocking you guys way.... ok ok lah.... sell lah sell lah.... buy back later......

Crack spread 92 now is at 3q17 level...... record EPS....... :-) don’t trade too much..... end up losing a lot of money..... it seems most people change short term now........ dumb dumb hold.....

Singapore Mogas 95 Unleaded (Platts) at historical high....

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/singapore-mogas-95-unleaded-platts-swap-futures.html

don't gamble on this counter.... buying contra or buying IB's warrants will for sure causing you to lose a lot of money...... The price of HY counter is very unpredictable now...

Be positive...... Be patient...... HY is a super counter.....the fundamental of HY does not change... Hold till 1q2018 result and final dividend declaration time......:-)

Dumb dumb hold :-)

Have faith the China HengYuan management..... The fundamental of HengYuan doesnot change.

The inventory gain/loss is not the only variable that is already taken care of.... There are other variables in the business of oil refining need to be look out for.

Extracted from the report....
"The Company’s margins and financial performance are exposed to the risk of crude and refined
product price fluctuations, driven by geopolitical forces and global economic changes. The Company aims to match the average price of its crude oil intake to the planned production of refined oil products, to manage the risks of margin erosion to an acceptable level. The Company may enter into futures, swaps, options and option derivatives to mitigate margin risks, but only whilst achieving an adequate balance between paper and physical positions.
The Company is also exposed to foreign currency exchange risks as a result of transactions entered into currencies other than its functional currency. Following the change of its functional currency from Ringgit Malaysia to the US Dollar, the Company’s exposure to foreign currencies is now limited to financial assets and liabilities that are denominated in currencies other than the US Dollar. The USD denominated term loans are no longer exposed to foreign currency fluctuations. The Company may enter into foreign currency hedge transactions to manage this exposure."

One can check the past few quarter of the company reports. The company did mention the effect of relative crude gain or even loss as compared to previous financial year. Not all the quarters in year 2017 is enjoying crude gain as compared to previous financial year, 2016.

The 1Q2018 EPS will definitely be more than 40 cents....

Having said that.... The price swing in HengYuan recently really spooks many people ... The stock price up/down is really not consistent with the fundamental of the HengYuan... However, if one is investing for the company business.... this is a super counter to invest in....

Be positive.... :-)

Sorry..... not convincing......

Thanks for the help...... SSLee and Probability....

Hmm... I know year 2018 might not be as good as 2017 but I believe the management of HY will manage the company thru the shutdown with minimum impact.... Oil price, crack spread, ringgit strength are all part of the business and management already mentioned about their plan in dealing with it.... Can check the passed report .... The EPS should stay between 1+ to 2 for year 2018. Year 2019 the EPS will grow because new Euro IV , no shutdown etc... The main thing is HY business is to generate petrol / diesel which is always needed all the time .... Just like LPI insurance business, Tenaga electric power business etc. there is always demand.... From business point of view ... It is a safe bet.... The price fluctuation is scary lor ..... Big players come in and exit ... IB interferer... Marker sentiment not good....Etc causing the price swing like between hell and heaven.... But HY fundamental business remain no change lor.... Just dumb dumb hold...for 1-2 year......One will see the light ...some even mention there will be pots of gold at the end...... :-) be positive ....
06/04/2018 10:46

The fundamental of HY does not change.....just be patient....

Dumb dumb hold....:-)

Now is bear market...... Can wait for a while before buying to get good bargain....

Thanks ..... SSLee ...... :-)

The reason why all stocks drop after 4om

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/04/china-new-us-tariffs-including-soy-cars-and-chemicals.html

The dumb dumb hold one like myself....be prepared....for violent impact ahead....no worry...HY is a super counter .. it will not go bankrupt.... Will be ready to buy more to average down when the HY price goes down a lot....

Market sentiment is bad.... Not just HY... Other stock like recap, skpres, rohas, Drb hicom, jaks, magni, pmetal etc all drop a lot in this few weeks .... If got money.... Can wait for a while .... Before consider to buy ....
04/04/2018 14:48

Hi SSLee.... just receive ack from HY.... dumb dumb hold ah...Huat ah to everyone..... :-)

Hi All......Just ignore all the negative comments.... dumb dumb hold..... The main idea of negative comments are to lure you to sell cheap so that they can buy cheap..... Ignore them... No selling ... just dumb dumb hold.... wait till final dividend.... or 2018 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q EPS comes out.... It is not as bad as those negative comments... So long one use affordable money to buy and hold the HY stock..it should be fine... This few days .... are daytraders world...price is pump up, dump down...all with intention to lure one to sell high buy low.... Just ignore the negative comments or totally not coming to forum at all... No comments to entertain those people.... without people trading.... those daytraders cannot do anything.... they can buy and sell and buy and sell...to themselves...... Really hope they can dump the price till below 6...... Already save money for that occassion......... :-)

can stop monitoring stock for some time....wait till final dividend is declared..... I want to stop checking on the forum also.... but some of the good sharings from people like probability, david_tan etc..etc... are too attractive to ignore...... many thanks to all of them.... Along with it, comes with people who want to buy cheap..... nice to hear their "STORY" as well.... be positive... HY is a super counter...it is worthwhile to wait....

Dumb dumb hold ... the fundamental of the HY doesnot change.... :-)

Agreed

Patient ....... Wait for another few months....when the HY gap up... U will find out that wait is worthwhile...

steady as it goes .... into the 1Q 2018 report..... steady EPS and hopeful for final dividend.....

Final dividend is definitely available .... Just donot know how much..,, EPS for q1 2018 should be easily above 0.5 but donot know the real figure..., Based on the fact that crack spread for jan, Feb are all very good ... March is moderate...

Good EPS is n the way also....

Final dividend is on the way....

Stay positive.... Dumb dumb hold....:-)

Market sentiment is not good..... Many stocks go down... Can dumb dumb hold till the 1q 2018 is out... Possible dividend......:-)

Dumb dumb hold...... till the next Qtr report.... Final/Special Dividend could be on the way......

Stay positive .... dumb dumb hold..... buy cheap also have to sell high to make profit.....:-)

I agree with gator... HY is a super counter... however no one can foresee the price .... it is always good to save some in case HY drop further ... however , based on the latest trend it seem like HY is at the bottom and ready to bounce up.... currently HY is oversold.... hence it is pretty safe to buy in now if affordable... but ready to buy in more if drop further....:-)

Petron also dead cat bounce?

The news posted by trulyinvest is old news. It is dated 7March18(Wed)@13:31 pm before the HY share price rebounded later the day and subsequent days...

Below is the whole news from the edge....

********************************************************************************************************
Hengyuan plunges another 15%, may revisit next support level
Tan Xue Ying
/
theedgemarkets.com

March 07, 2018 13:31 pm +08
-A+A
KUALA LUMPUR (Mar 7): Hengyuan Refining Co Bhd’s share price dived as much as 14.7% to RM8.68 this morning, in line with heavy selling seen on Bursa Malaysia as the local bourse tracked regional market performances.

Following a sharply lower opening this morning, the counter continued to be under a great deal of pressure as its share price plummeted below the RM9-level by mid-morning, versus its last closing price of RM10.18 on Tuesday.

As at noon break, the counter was trading at RM8.80 — still down 13.6% or RM1.38 — bringing a market capitalisation of RM2.80 billion. It was the top decliner on Bursa Malaysia.

Today’s sell-down marked Hengyuan’s sixth consecutive trading session of declines. Its share price has nearly halved from its closing price of RM15.10 on Feb 27, knocking about RM1.73 billion from off its market capitalisation.

The heavy selling for the past few days draws a huge contrast to its stellar set of financial results for its financial year ended Dec 31, 2017 (FY17).

Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd head of retail research Loui Low told theedgemarkets.com that Hengyuan has not been able to withstand the selling pressure even with its strong set of results, as the results have been priced in.

"The price has breached below the psychological support of RM10 and may revisit its next support of RM8.60," Low added.

For FY17, the refinery achieved its widest gross profit margin in 20 years at 12.4%, and a threefold jump in its annual profit to RM909.2 million. But concerns arise on the delay of its Euro4M Mogas project.

In its quarterly results announcement, Hengyuan said it anticipated a delay in the planned completion of the Euro4M Mogas project, due to longer-than-expected duration to fabricate the main equipment.

Any delay may result in loss in revenue, as the October 2018 deadline to implement Euro4M gasoline specification for RON95 gets closer.

At press time, the benchmark FBM KLCI was down 0.5% or 9.36 points, with decliners outstripping gainers at 926 versus 124.

Yes... HY cash for FY 2017 is almost RM1.6-2 per share... not inclusive the new 1.7 billion loan yet

The probability is very high for HY to achieve them ....

Pmetal PE also 30-40x..... it is not branded... I think... HY need consistent EPS over some time ... and higher dividend... TIME and cash flow is the main thing ... I guess

Don’t be over pessimistic.... stay positive....:-)

Contra player will sure lose in this counter ... same for the call warrant players..... just trade mother share.... mother share itself already so volatile....

Correct

HY Eps for FY 2018 will be 2.5 and beyond.... fundamental doesnot change....

Dumb dumb hold... remember the dividend is interim only... when the RM 1.7 billion is received...cash flow is much improved a lot... final dividend will be announced... could be 0.5 or above...

The fundamental of HY doesnot change.....Dumb dumb hold....:-)

Icon... you donot simply slap a inventory loss of 500 M to HY... show the prof please....500 M is a very big value... hence not convincing your calculation

Well dumb dumb hold.... if not sell... just paper loss only .... this is a super counter... the dividend is just interim... earning will be at least RM 2.5 for 2018.... May be recent drop is due to big player leaving like KYY or IB manipulation ...... if not buy , can buy now ... good opportunity to buy...very low price now...

Dragon... I agree.... so dumb dumb hold...:-)

Icon calculation has a big error.... he/she slap a inventory loss of 500M to HY 2018.... that is ridiculous....