Good hard works....Tongkarat

Be positive....:-)

Dumb dumb hold.... HY...

Most of the things are all made in China.... check your shoes, clothes, underwear, computer ICs, car parts.... etc Now you even scarer ... is it? LOL...

Trust the HY management lor

Aiyoyo... if I am the management ... I will hedge the oils to make sure my company profit constant irregardless of oil price fluctuation.... also I will increase inventory when oil price drop and decrease inventory when oil price rise... recently oil price fluctuation will not sustain in llong term.... human mah.... can always improvise... not deadly follow the death rule... that is why HY is earning higher profit compared to shell previously...

Dumb dumb hold..... LOL

Be positive..... PH or BN win the election... bursa will run as usual.... whoever win the election will make sure Malaysia economy not collapsing.... go Eye go....

For PH to win the election.... all sons and daughters, please go back to tell your parents, grandparents and relatives in rural area, Sabah, Sarawak, Johor etc to support PH....

It is time to have 2 parties for check and balance in Malaysia... We donot want scandal like 1Malaysia Development Berhad Scandal happened again......

Agreed...

dragonslayer posted 04/05/2018 09:18
Aiyo mneo..china Shandong refined oil cheaper than msia mah...theorectically...cannot export refine oil from PD to China also mah....cost wise...and ...Euro std in china is higher also mah....how to export to china....you tell me lah...wakakaka....kikiki

rare mineral..... are also rich in South China Sea...

Reading the following news below...

Beijing 'installs missiles' on South China Sea islands
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/beijing--installs-missiles--on-south-china-sea-islands-10199684

can I come out with new hypothesis that China is going to invade South East Asia countries? LOL...

ya...it is outdated but it is a fact....

Do you have the latest one from HY Shangdong which say that HY will plan to turn the PD port to storage facilities and export the oil from China to Malaysia? The new conspiracy theory is really just fantasy... if no new proven information....old news is still valid....

Actually on the contrary.... Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co plan to trim the Shandong plant and turn it from refinery to chemical plant... If one read properly... HY Shandong want to expand higher-value chemicals business at its plant in China and not the refinery....



Chinese teapot refiner using Shell tie-up to launch overseas push

BEIJING (Reuters) - A Chinese private refiner that agreed to buy a stake in Royal Dutch Shell's (RDSa.L) Malaysia oil refinery will focus on expanding overseas while limiting domestic investment, the company's chairman told Reuters in an interview on Thursday

Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co last month agreed to buy a 51 percent stake in Shell Refining Co Malaysia for $66.3 million, becoming one of China's few non-major refining firms that own an overseas refinery asset. Shell Refining's main asset is the 156,000 barrels-per-day refinery at Port Dickson that mainly provides fuel to the domestic market.

Facing a surplus in Chinese refining capacity, the Shandong firm wants to boost the trading of oil products by working with Shell, and also expand the higher-value chemicals business at its plant in the eastern province of Shandong, said Wang Youde, chairman of Hengyuan Petrochemical.
....

The firm will also apply for a refined fuel export quota, hoping to work with Shell to ship Chinese oil products abroad.

"Our first choice will be Shell, both for crude oil procurement and fuel exports," said Wang, adding Hengyuan is also considering expanding the crude terminal at Port Dickson.

Its Shandong plant, which now relies on trucks moving crude from ports to the refinery, will lean on chemicals instead of oil refining for future expansion, he said.

"On refining, we'll further trim the capacity...We may eventually stop as a refiner if our chemical part of the business becomes more established."


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-teapot-refiner-using-shell-075022009.html

We are just very small shareholder... not sure if they entertain many questions from us or not

The beta for this company is high.... it can rise to high price very fast... same also that it will drop very fast..... so don’t worry if you hold it at RM 12, 13 or 18etc...it is still ok... HY will rise back up very fast...

be positive. .... dumb dumb hold... the HY is a super counter..... the product is refined oil.... the demand is always there....

Agreed....

It is good to hear..... Good luck to all of us.... Really thankful for your effort... Have a good day.... :-)

Thanks again SSLee for the hard works...... We really appreciate it....

Do you prepare in case you are limited to ask maximum of, for instance 3 questions?
May be can you prioritise the questions.

My 2 cent input in term of important questions are as following:-
1) dividend -> max dividend payout for this FY18(final dividend after deduction of 0.02) based on their current solvency test(how to relate to the cash balance) and any plan to adopt dividend policy.
2) What is the short and long term plan as well as outlook of HY in Malaysia and how does it fit into potential future competition from the congestion of growing of refinery development in the Asia region such as Vietnam, RAPID or Petron upgraded refinery Malaysia), India, China?
3) What is the worst case scenario for Euro IV upgrade ? Will the PD refinery be delayed for max of how long the period? or will PD refinery not upgradable? or will PD refinery need further injection of capital for more upgrade? What is the worst case impact to HY in term of EPS for 2018, 2019 so on etc)?

Also, may be you can group a few small questions into 1 big question in case you are limited to raise only a few questions...

Thanks again.....

DroidnPlay ...just be patient now.... Further downside is low. It is alright to wait for a few months...and gain more than 40% return.... better than fix deposit.... Just invest with spare cash....

Probability.... Stock market consists of many types of people(good and bad people....remember zero sum game!!)...

If you cannot tolerate Godfather's behaviour, then you may consider other type of investment.... He at least disclose his actions which causes anger in you(actually if you understand why he did the buy,sell, buy etc and considering his exposure in political arena..it is quite logical).... There are worst type of people(the one who will not cause anger to you but bring your hard-earned money and laugh all the way to his bank without you knowing)...

However, this doesnot justify your action to spread rumour to instil fear in HY..... Please also donot tell plain lie.....I really hate people doing that.....

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by gator > Apr 29, 2018 07:21 PM | Report Abuse X

Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 06:40 PM | Report Abuse

he is a man without any substance.......worthless piece of shit.

to me he is of the most inferior genes...fxxking his female descendents would feel like fxxking a piece of plastic - doll.

this kinda of shit genes can easily be produced and replaced with A.I...

there is zero emotional satisfaction...zero values being around with such a character.

feelings, love, compassion, ethics is everything to me...

Money a billion cannot buy me sincerity and real emotions.

I dont find any value from a person like him....may be son of prostitutes like u need it (mneo).

my dog deserves a 100 time more respect than him.
--------
Posted by probability > Apr 29, 2018 07:02 PM | Report Abuse

well, its frustrating for me to see humans cant see the obvious...as such i may need to come up with messages that stirs deeper emotions.

why the fxxk did mneo need to bring that person and compare with me? whats his problem...

----
Posted by klee > Apr 29, 2018 07:14 PM | Report Abuse

probability,calm down,i understand how you feel....from hero to zero.
-----------

Probability,

I think u should take a break from this forum and reevaluate yourself. Perhaps u should follow Raider's example and meditate in Tibet.

And please,please bite your tongue and refrain from profanities. It will calm u down a lot. Sincerely...

Probability..... Please....Don't compare yourself to him.... You cannot compare to him...

He become billionaire from stock trading...Who are you?

In term of career, he worked his way from engineer to successful businessman...Co- founder of IJM Corporation Bhd....Who are you?

Even when he buy then sell and then buy(may be sell again) the HY.... we can learn ....

Stock market tends to be confusing.... we need not be confused by it...

probability posted 29/04/2018 16:08>
why no one dare to come out argue leh......

its very easy to attack a person....but not easy to access market information and interpolate correctly.

the problem with people are that they are too focused on results to criticize someone...but not on the effort placed to ensure correctness on the path.

No one praised me when it shot up from 6 to 16....but the moment i said its not good all wanted to question my credibility..accusing conman etc..

so far not even one dare to question credibility of their godfather...

richman's urine appears like beer kah? simple answer - vested interest leh....kikiki

Same same to you....LOL

probability post 29/04/2018 14:08

mneo...i had never seen a panlai forumer like u in i3 before..

Posted by mneo > Apr 29, 2018 02:04 PM | Report Abuse

Actually, I found out that HY is going to export refined oil after the upgrade their PD refinery. For instance, Canada is increasing their refined oil import.... See below for more information.
29/04/2018 14:08

A good opportunity for HY to export its refined product to India......


India is increasing its oil demand by 2035
....
India’s energy consumption is expected to grow the fastest among all major economies by 2035, according to the BP Energy Outlook from 2017. Energy consumption in transportation is seen rising by 5.8 percent per year and oil will still be the dominant fuel source with a 93-percent market share in 2035, BP said. By 2030, India will overtake China as the largest growth market for energy in volume terms, according to the UK oil supermajor.
.....

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/India-Will-Lead-Global-Oil-Demand-By-2035.html

Precisely..... Why Probability still keep posting negative conspiracy theories at HY that are not proven? spread rumour to incur fear lor.....

If you are so kind enough want to help people, please do proper research and study, find which stock that can make money. Then post at that particular stock forum with proven useful fundamental analysis facts(not stitched news and hypothesis).


Actually, I found out that HY is going to export refined oil after the upgrade their PD refinery. For instance, Canada is increasing their refined oil import.... See below for more information.

.....

The importation of crude oil and bitumen advanced 15.4 per cent, with imported refined petroleum products up by 24.1 per cent, the latter due largely to increased imports of gasoline into British Columbia.
....

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/wallace-and-mintz-were-addicted-to-foreign-oil




<<<<<<<probability post 29/04/2018 13:29
mneo....if there is a real opportunity to make money from HY...why should i dont?

reasons for my actions is simply because...the facts are staring straight into my eyes...and i do not want people to exploit the innocents.

Its a huge risk to punt on this stock.

I dont mind being a bad guy now...even in the future, knowing that there are high chances of people appreciating me later.




Posted by probability > Apr 26, 2018 05:41 PM | Report Abuse

despite hurricane uplifting the crack spread by 10 USD/brl to 16 USD/brl....HY CCS margin is 7USD/brl for 2017....

this year no Hurricane...crack drop at least 4 USD/barrel...and no FIFO margins...

7 - 4 = 3 USD/brl CCS margin for 2018

meaning CCS margin would go below 2016 level of 5.5 USD/brl (reported in 2017 annual report)....

...................................

Thats a whopping 2.5 USD/brl below 2016 level!!

we saw what was the earnings like in 2016 without tax of 24%.

Its easy to predict what would be for 2018 with tax..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I agree...

3iii >>>>Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 01:25 AM | Report Abuse

I don’t believe someone can change their mind in a short period. Suddenly writing articles to support, suddenly writing to oppose. It does not make sense. Just like someone suddenly go from PH to BN.
29/04/2018 11:50<<<<



What can make a person change his or her mind in a short period?


In your examples above, the two people you mentioned changed their minds suddenly because of emotion rather than rationality.

They wish to be seen to be on the popular side.

They have a lot to learn on emotion. You are not right or wrong because others say so. You are only right based on your own facts and reasons.

I believe Probability lost a lot of money in HY. He may have invested most of his money in this counter. He was spooked out by the price swing from 19 to 6 and sold all his shares at 6+. When KYY bought back at 6+ and pushed the price to 8, and he felt betrayed. He is now taking revenge.
He want to influence others to push the price of HY down(to hurt KYY perhaps,LOL, he is billionaire and who are you?). I need to put a disclaimer here.... This is merely my fantasy....hypothesis...no proof.... Donot trust me for this particular hypothesis.....

Posted by SmartyAlek > Apr 29, 2018 01:25 AM | Report Abuse

I don’t believe someone can change their mind in a short period. Suddenly writing articles to support, suddenly writing to oppose. It does not make sense. Just like someone suddenly go from PH to BN.

LOL....my gut feeling tells me Probability is Lieing...



probability > this is what we say ''gut feelings dont lie''...

Posted by gsi723 > Apr 26, 2018 10:57 PM | Report Abuse

though i hold it, personal feeling is RM5 seem easier than RM15... :-(

>>>
qqq3
which will be first? $ 10 or $ 6?

truth be told, it does look like easier to see $6 than to see $10.......unless.......unless they surprise everyone and come out with earnings of > $1 for first quarter..............

Based on page 31 of the annual report,2018 from HY...
31% - Gasoline

40M * 0.7 /7.35*0.31=1.18M, close to 1.15M ton of gasoline after upgraded per annum by HY.....
Annual output is Max output, almost 100% operational (using 70% as normal throughput)

There is totally NO GAPPING hole!!!!!!

Posted by Probability > Apr 26, 2018 04:32 PM | Report Abuse
light naphtha falls under gasoline category. Total for gasoline then becomes 33%.

1.15 MT is max rated capacity, using 80% standard as normal throughput of operating level means only = 0.92 MT per annum.

42 barrels per annum x (1 ton/7.35 barrel) x 33%
= 1.88 MT

0.92 MT as the gasoline generation capacity is still less than 50% of its current gasoline output.

.................................................

There is STILL A GAPING 50% hole to be filled!!!!



Posted by mneo > Apr 26, 2018 04:03 PM | Report Abuse

If you notice the report properly, you will notice that Probability 's calculation for the 50% upgraded refinery is already wrong...... Again he is wrong .... No surprise... The report from HY is very informative.... You can see many numbers that Probability are wrong.... So one can guess how inaccurate Probability hypothesis is...

Higher Prices Set To Send U.S. Oil Stocks Soaring

....
But while Wall Street is a little wary of the oil majors, some investment banks are hyping Big Oil stocks. Goldman Sachs says there are four main reasons to like the oil majors, at least in the short run: new projects coming online will add production, refining margins are solid, capex is low and sustainable and commodity prices are on the upswing. Goldman recommended ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor Energy, but says its top idea for the quarter for investors is to buy ConocoPhillips.
....

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Higher-Prices-Set-To-Send-US-Oil-Stocks-Soaring.html

Oil Refiners Are Primed for Profits

Gasoline sales seem to face a long-term threat from electric cars, but in the near term, the outlook for companies that turn crude oil into gasoline has rarely looked better. Demand for refining is poised to grow faster than supply in the years ahead, leading to a surge in profits and share prices across the industry.

Refineries, with their vast tangles of pipes and stacks, look endlessly complex, but at the heart of each is a process similar to the one that turns runoff from fermented corn mash into moonshine: distillation. The more sophisticated the refinery, the heavier the crude it can break down into gasoline, jet and ship fuel, heating oil, and more. Shipping costs for refined products are low; a gallon of gasoline, recently around $2 at wholesale, costs a nickel or so to transport between the U.S. and Latin American or Europe. That means profits in one market can depend upon supply growth in another.

Oil Refiners Are Primed for Profits
“You have to look at refining globally, or you’re never going to get the right answers,” says Doug Terreson, head of energy research at Evercore ISI. Terreson has been tracking every refinery construction project in the world since the 1990s, paying attention to capacities, technologies used, and likely yields. In 2003, when he was at Morgan Stanley, he noticed demand was rising but there was little new supply coming. So he published a major call: A “golden age of refining” had arrived. “That’s a career-limiting call if you’re wrong,” says Terreson. He wasn’t. As a group, U.S. refiners gained 1,100% by the time he downgraded them in 2006.

Fifteen years later, Terreson is making a new call: “It’s not your father’s golden age, but we’ll take it,” he wrote in a December note for Evercore. Demand once again looks likely to outpace supply. That should widen the “crack spread”—the difference between crude’s cost and prices of refined products. Don’t expect refiners’ shares to go vertical again, but their consensus earnings projections could rise 20% from here, pulling the stocks higher. Terreson has buy ratings on Andeavor (ANDV), Valero Energy (VLO), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Phillips 66 (PSX), and he notes that Andeavor and Valero have the most exposure to refining.

Andeavor could jump 30% in a year. Formerly Tesoro, it changed its name last year, after it bought Western Refining for $6.4 billion. Last year, Andeavor generated 45% of its Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, from refining; 26% from marketing, or selling fuel, Twinkies, and more via 3,250 service stations under banners like Arco, Shell and Mobil; and 29% through majority ownership of Andeavor Logistics (ANDX), a limited partnership with pipelines, terminals, and other assets.
....

https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-refiners-are-primed-for-profits-1522454400

Essar Oil UK to see rise in margins following refinery upgradation

Essar Oil (UK), which owns and operates Britain's Stanlow Refinery, will touch double-digit margins this fiscal after it completed a USD 250 million investment in upgradation of the refinery, its chief executive S Thangapandian said.

The company, controlled by Ruia-family of Mumbai that sold Essar Oil to Russia's Rosneft for USD 12.9 billion, has completed efficiency enhancement programme, the Project Tiger Cub, following which Stanlow's annual crude oil processing is projected to go up to 72 million barrels per day from 68 million bpd, he said.

"The project was completed in January-March quarter but the full payback from Tiger Cub will take around 12-15 months," Thangapandian added.

The refinery throughput in 2017-18 fiscal was around 53.8 million barrels, which was lower than normal due to a shutdown undertaken for completion of Project Tiger Cub.


In 2018-19, the throughput is projected at 72 million barrels considering that refinery was not operational in the first 20 days of April because of the same turnaround shutdown. "Refinery throughput is expected to reach the targeted level in 2019-20," he said.

The company had earned USD 9.6 on turning every barrel of crude oil into fuel in 2017-18 fiscal. "The gross refining margin is projected to increase to USD 10.1 per barrel in FY 2018-19," he added.

Thangapandian said the company, which now has 55 petrol stations in UK, is targeting 400 pumps in five years.

It has also entered into the direct aviation fuel supply market, selling the fuel produced at Stanlow to major airlines such as Emirates, Etihad, Jet2.com and Oman Air.

These direct sales presently make up for 10 per cent of the 1.2 million tonnes of jet fuel produced at Stanlow. Going forward, the company is looking to scale up the sales to 40-50 per cent.

Essar has invested over USD 800 million since acquiring Stanlow in July 2011.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63785924.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Valero Energy Reports First Quarter 2018 Results improved due to higher refinery margin....

SAN ANTONIO, April 26, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO)
(“Valero”) today reported net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $469 million, or $1.09 per share, for the first quarter of 2018 compared to $305 million, or $0.68 per share, for the first quarter of 2017. Excluding the special items reflected in the accompanying earnings release tables, first quarter 2018 adjusted net income attributable to Valero stockholders was $431 million, or $1.00 per share, an increase of 47 percent in adjusted per share results compared to the first quarter of 2017.

Refining
The refining segment reported $922 million of operating income for the first quarter of 2018 compared to $640 million for the first quarter of 2017. First quarter 2018 operating income includes a $170 million benefit from the Blender’s Tax Credit and $10 million of expenses primarily related to ongoing repairs at certain of the company’s refineries to address damage resulting from Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and other inclement weather conditions that occurred in the first quarter of 2018. Excluding these special items, operating income was $762 million, an increase of $122 million versus first quarter 2017 driven primarily by higher distillate margins, partly offset by narrower discounts for medium and heavy sour crude oils versus Brent.

Refinery throughput capacity utilization was 94 percent, and throughput volumes averaged 2.9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2018, which is 93,000 barrels per day higher than the first quarter of 2017. The company exported a total of 271,000 barrels per day of gasoline and distillate during the first quarter of 2018.

Biofuel blending costs were $206 million in the first quarter of 2018, which is $60 million greater than in the first quarter of 2017, mainly due to higher Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices.

“We delivered solid results despite a relatively soft first quarter, and we remain optimistic on fundamentals for the balance of the year,” said Joe Gorder, Valero Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Our refineries are well-situated to take advantage of discounted heavy sour and domestic sweet crude oils versus Brent and to meet the growing demand for refined products in Latin America.”
......

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/04/26/1487899/0/en/Valero-Energy-Reports-First-Quarter-2018-Results.html
....

If you notice the report properly, you will notice that Probability 's calculation for the 50% upgraded refinery is already wrong...... Again he is wrong .... No surprise... The report from HY is very informative.... You can see many numbers that Probability are wrong.... So one can guess how inaccurate Probability hypothesis is...

It seems like certain big player left HY..... NVM... dumb dumb hold.... Fundamental still no change ... :-)

Thanks again SSLee for the good works and efforts irregardless of what the outcome would be...

wait for it to go down some more....should reach 0.8 soon....

Most of the Bursa stocks are in red.... Many sideline to wait for the election result.....

yes.... if drop further..it will be good time to accumulate....

Now the market sentiment is bad..... investors are all sidelined waiting for the election result.... This may be one of the reason why the Rcecap stock price is dropping...

Go and read newspaper and you will find out till today there is news saying that properties sector is recovering.... According to expert from economist, properties etc... You really believe it? If they are wrong, do you think you can sue them ? It is merely opinion ...

Same piece of hypothesis cut and copy paste Then copy paste..... so many times .... Try to brainwash people? Cut and paste 1000 times also no use... The fact will be seen soon... Qtr report is out soon... Once AGM approve the dividend payment .. then how? Sure have another new hypothesis one ...

For instance ... When HY spend half the money to do upgrading .... It might mean the output is half.... I find it hard to believe .... The news just said this is from oil specialist.... Who are they? No responsiblity at all... It is just a piece of news ... If it is wrong.... then what ? Can sue the edge? This is unlike the report from HY as HY is responsible to earn the credibility.... Talking about credibility.... Probability is now 0.... Hypothesis proven wrong all the time ....

Aiya... Really.... Just treat Probability news as essay writing.... He just find a lot of news to support his hypothesis..... Don't treat them so serious lah.... Actually can just Google News to support the hypothesis that you have to convince people like essay writing.... It is easy nowsaday.... Till now... There is no correct hypothesis proven yet from him....

It seems like tomorrow the stock price of HY will continue uptrend.... Go HY Go.... :-)

It seem like many people left BURSA for a while till election result is out...it is good time to buy.....find your love counter and start tracking to it.... The price may just be right for you....

Wah... Today bursa down 12+ points .... Luckily HY manage to hold position .... PMETAL down a lot today...

Malaysia refined petroleum export increases....
"....However, refined petroleum products, which accounted for 7.5% of total exports, increased 29.1% to RM5.3bil due to the increase in both export volume (+18.4%) and average unit value (+9.0%). .... "

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/04/05/february-exports-imports-way-below-forecast/

Below shows why China increasing refined oil export is actually filling the declining refined oil export from country like Taiwan, South Korea, Russia etc...

http://www.worldstopexports.com/refined-oil-exports-by-country/