OMG! oil price is falling fast to USD100bbl. This is bad! I'm scared :( I think Hibiscus will go below RM1.00 soon aiyo.

(Please bring share price down cos I am skek and need you all to sell faster.SELL SELL SELL.......................................) :P

What is a target range for all these bears for Brent? 70?

@twynstar thanks for the update. Also looking out to our domestic economy, I have a good feeling that the Federal bugdet particularly the performance of Petronas will more likely trend on the upside.
I am also optimistic of our exchange rate. Let's keep a close watch on this space!

most of the traders on Bursa are very short term as they are only excited by the spike in levels of Brent price. the actual profit is driven by quarterly average price, not 1 or 2 days price of Brent bbl. so if Brent has a stable price range, the impact is better than spikes down and up.

Also, Repsol's addition of barrels (9k plus per day) isn't properly factored in.
Would be interesting to see what the stable volume of barrels & price will be for March. Should help to provide better clarity going fwd.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!
come lets go kopi! :P

Wow Australia just banned export of alumina. Great set up! Boom boom!

also, i wanted to add that there are 2 currents supporting outperformance of Hibby going fwd:
1. a stable average Brent price bbl around 90 to 100 per quarter
2. arguably more importantly: the increase in no of barrels produced by Hibby with Repsol and potential new acqn

Also, I have not seen any Management on Bursa disclosing to the public such a stringent acqusition IRR of 12% or more if not mistaken (per their Circular)- execution remains to be seen, but stating it means you're committing to it.
(So many GLCs on Bursa are so useless, chickens when it comes to real performance!) So kudos on this.

But yes, watch out for risks as well.

@zhangzuode thanks for highlighting that all the remaining CRPS have been converted! my bad I thought there are still some balance left. apparently 24Feb22 mandatory conversion. (Should be better news to my model haha :))
also wow! @zhangzuode 's FCF for 2023 is RM677 mil. giving an FCF yield of 28% whoa :P
BTW thanks guys for the great analysis! nothing beats having smart, diligent co-investors to learn from and share notes with
this goes to @twynstar too!

@twynstar thanks for the great analysis with some detailed disclosure on assumptions
My assumptions are about the same as yours. However, I would like to just share a perspective that all investors/ shareholders to always exercise scenarios in their models to ensure you have some level of probabilistic approach towards your valuation

in my case, I have created scenarios with several assumptions on:
1. avg realised price of Brent bbl per quarter
2. potential costs of finance on the CRPS (around 4% per annum)
3. potential rise in SGA costs
Granted, I do not do much in terms of discount rate (not DCF for Hibiscus) but yes investing in an uncertain macro-inflationary environment can have some risk aspects on this. (Spike in discount factors, WACC)

But I still think markets today are even more susceptible to behavioral biases. Investors are struggling for yield and some form of returns to fight inflation, so quality names with good macro tail wind should help Hibby (esp as its financial risk is relatively low vs for example Sapura, which is screwed at this juncture- Not even PNB or Datuk Anuar can do much with so much in Sapura's closet!)

sometimes, i feel so terrol and master at trading and investing like Ray Dalio cos I read a lot but then when the macro wind change, i cry and forget i am terrol

this game is a game of emotions

counters like axis (boring, steady, slow but certain due to great focus, execution) are what we need to build long term value creation.

boring is good :)

When TNB wanna break below support RM8.7? last time was 7 years ago. 2015 Sept. cmon give young people chance also to buy at decade low please uncker2 and auntie2!

walaweh. CPO naik almost 12% ady at closing EOB today. go go go!

weh weh what happened palm oil spiked 9% in morning trade session??????????????
WHYYYYYYYYYYY

this company will get squeezed. with crippling costs of raw materials, spiralling inflationary pressures and stagflation in global economy, who wanna buy weh? may have to wait many many years before it can deliver great cashflow (also capex huge recently die standing la depreciation in bad economy)

@mywb you insider trading issit. wait ah wanna call Sec Commission. eh lupa they dont care BAHAHAHAHA!

anyway, waiting for dvd to come in to buy more. this one my pencen plan. slow2 ony haha :P

@mywb you insider trading issit. wait ah wanna call Sec Commission. eh lupa they dont care BAHAHAHAHA!

Sorry got excited haha
heres the link fellas :

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-set-to-ban-commodity-exports-following-western-sanctions-11646768260

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/75965/

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3810771-putin-signs-decree-to-restrict-imports-and-exports-until-year-end

Walaweh. Putin just banned export of ALL raw materials from Russia to be effective until Dec 31
walaweh. this is full blown war! Rocket goes to the MOOOOOOOOOOOON
HODL

AIYO GOLD 2020. WALAWEH :p

well well. nak melabur jangan malas. not all companies are created equal.
Look at the risks- financial risk esp for capital intensive stocks.
dont sound lazy / dumb by painting every stocks within a sector with broad brush. This is not kindergarten. or a gossip tabloid.
The least you could do is go on the P&L, BS and CF statements. Look before you jump. Which counters are quality investments, which are ciggy butts.

Anyways, have a great time in the markets :P

oooppps ada orang tido.
Malaysian market wake up!!! Wake up!!
Copper price shot up 12% since 1 March wehhhh :P

JAG here we go dahling leng lui

dont fight it people. also dont act smart la.
Buffet also still holding on to Occidental.
This is narrative economics. and this is how its going to unravel:
1. Oct 21: gao2 shoot to 94.5 sen due to the Great Global Reopening sentiment
2. Oct- Dec 21: fear of a Hawkish Fed
3. Jan 22: Supply & inventory not keeping up with demand- shoot
4. Feb 22: European war
5. Now: all thinking it is too high...but it is only too high when people are starting to be irrationally fearful
for now, as price goes higher (and everything else is a falling knife), there really is not safe place for trillions of dollars. Oil is the few safe space , with commodities
This spike may be extended further

anyway, keep watching insider moves: http://openinsider.com/

Good luck everyone!

Crazy. Brent already at 129 dollars. Buy buy buy ???

Bursa about to turn up due to heavy commodities nature of our economy. Wait for it people.

Narrative economics dictate that the momentum will probably remain now on the following fronts:
1. Flight away from inflation
2. Flight into commodities
3. Flight from risk assets
4. Flight from losses

Yes, oil stocks are still subject to the universal (financial) laws of discount rates etc but in the case of extreme fear, participants start looking at the least risky assets (borrowings profile, some sustained cashflow generation)

Gold is supposed to work well but JPow just declared a war on gold. so yeah. we gotta watch this space every day!

also, commodities are not helping the margins (and subsequent conversion to cashflow) on solar project. we dead :(

When i bought, i just bought due to macro excitement
now i see the company's Cashflow position is bad
i have no appetite for this bHAHAHA
bye

at this juncture, holding TNB is like holding bonds in a world where CBs are purposely keeping rates crazy low (ie capital appreciation effed) hahah
maybe it is turning into that asset class? people buying for the dvds and redemption value upon redemption ony

I am not very smart numbers-wise but 7 days of company share buyback in Feb22 of total 1.7 million shares, worth total purchase of RM4.973 mil (last price at RM3.43/share on Feb 18). This is equivalent to ~2.23% of remaining public float (discounting "friendly" shareholders like Motivasi Optima, REdtone, DYMM, LBH and several institutionals)

---
That's the background + growth in SSSG (new stores/ drivethru sales) and cost controls since late 2020..

Yes I agree with @dragon328 that the upside may be there (and I think may even be sticky at around this price)

Depends if TSVT keeps selling or not but fundamentally, I think a good long term play for HODLers

All in all, I would monitor execution of BJFood under new Group CEO. If execution continues, then worthwhile to hold for LT value creation.

---
Downside risks:
1. spike in Malaysian Equity Risk Premium (due to spike in US terminal rate) hence discount rate - affecting DCF valuation due
2. compression in margin due to cost creeping up in commodities


(NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE- Just thoughts from a young padawan)
TQ

good luck trying to crash an essential crop company. with the power of the moon, i punish u. BAAHAHAHA.
commodities play weh.jom...(but yeah simeplant isnt even the best metrics wise. many better options in terms of metrics EOR, FFB yield etc :P)

spot gold at 1.9k :P

Is TG dead? sedih. bye bye beauty i am poor because of you Tan Sri TG!

moving moving. sell la everyone haha. :P

Some of these analysts are plain lazy or just dumb. E.g. AMBank report puts major shareholder as only BJ Corp at 48.8% when the total direct & indirect shareholder is TSVT at 61.1% as at 27.1.2022. Plain lazy

Also, telling folk lore Christmas sale. So lazy. go and check la how many new drive thru concept stores have been open even in Perlis (population 10 people) all Queue like mad in December 2022. Same story Alor Star.

WOrk in a bank but lazy. no initiative!

Then 1 day after results come out: OH wE ReViSe UpWRds our Tp bY 50%. your mother your foot la weh. if lazy of course la play catch up.

Hope CEO of these IB take a look at the Quality of their analystsz ew

proof that share buybacks work :P

Happy CNY everyone. Meanwhile, sell la. Tech is going to evaporate like mad weh!

when la wanna fall below 9? boring ady waiting nothing happening weh!

dont be late to the party. GOLD iS MOonIng

will we finally see RM8.5?

Wont be surprised in next announcment , Quarter Revenue is RM200 mil! with profits around RM11mil to RM13 mil, depending on depre etc.
(look at new investments and FCF, last June 30 mil ringek new investments..)

What is you guys 2022 full year profit after tax? Can get ah RM20 milyonz? Possible I think..

@gomyinv it is all cashflow constrain, not fundamentally driven. Never in the history of Malaysia since Merdeka EPF had to sell RM100 bil non stop in less than 2 years...

Meanwhile, rejoice. US Yields are spiking. HODLRs will have good entry price soon.

But please dont be simpletons and think in 1 level. Please if u wanna play this game, do us all the honour of thinking at least 3 levels.
How? Eg: 1. Fed minutes result in Yield spike -> global equities fall indiscriminately (high FCF, low FCF) -> which sectors benefit from high rates? -> impact of high rates on Global economies with high loans -> govt policy move -> which sectors will benefit?

Just sharing my thoughts

wow aemulus doing so well

This Tengku as a Finance Minister is so naive. Not only he crashed Bursa after his last Bajet announcement, now flip flopping. Dumb or what?

you have to use unconventional data points to see the growth in this company. go visit all the new stores, see what they are doing. are the mgmt delivering.
do they have pricing power. is it just selling commoditised coffee or experience?
What is Jalil Rasheed doing for BJFood, is it good or bad?

bodoh sia. lari2 henlo J N RM pun tak lari. wtf. nampak sgt salah.

walaweh why la tenaga go up? I wanna buy below RM9 please....
just plan to sell my grandma to buy more tenaga... sad la like this! :(

Why is Top Glove still not hitting my RM1.50 TP? I wanna sell JPM's sisters and mother to buy more shares. PLS pls pls hit RM1.5 :(
now too expensive

also, more variants please in NY so Wall Street can lock down please

so when is tenaga dropping to 8.50? lama tunggu all talkcock ony nothing moving
meh

when TG wanna hit RM1.5 weh. ... I been waiting. Bij betul la...sell la please.
JPM please short please please