I am monitoring Tambun as well, now waiting for their sales figures in the coming QR, as some claimed Tambun has registered interest to purchase their units in new developments but was waiting for licenses from the relevant authorities.

This plane in this section is very very rational, please continue.... reading now

You are really dig deep to study the report, all in all, you will find out, CCB is actually one of the simplest annual report among the PLC in bursa.

Studying cash flow & dividend history records now, not notice that, thank you very much, kancs, great to have you here.

Hi Kancs, do you mind to share where did you find the following info/details?

CCB is entitled to draw down on the interest free revolving hire-purchase floor plan facility from MBM (You wrote CCB, I guess it should be MBM).

Icon, still a lot to learn from you, one of the most tough one is ready to be kena shot... :)

Hi kancs, I love your works and these are truly admirable.

I don't quite agreeable to the last sentence, which on the CCB's ability to pay special dividend in 2016.

I am actually studying their cash flow statements for 2008 & 2009, I have been thinking how they managed to frank so much special dividends during the 2 years but without incurring much debts or worsen the balance sheet.

Kancs, What a fantastic research works & ratio analysis, very well done!

PE is just one of the most commonly acceptable tools in judging the future share value of a stock. Some use Free cash flow, discounted cash flow, blah blah, many more methods....

Everyone will have his/her own conclusion or judgement, based on experience, technical background or knowledge, state of emotion, etc.

When we say target price should be 4 or 5.5, some already happy enough to sell at this price. Like Gadang, our dear friend had already warned us Gadang was very bad company and he even cursed when price was RM1.40 something.

It is not a question of right or wrong, as long as you are comfortable or happy with it, then stick to it. If don't, then move one. No harm done because you are responsible for your own life, no one else.

I always remind myself, no one will care about you when you are having bad time in life and no one will give you money when you need money, except your parents, Banks (provided you have spare credit facility) Or may be Ah Long???

So invest only after doing homework, at least you know your own goal & bottom line.

Buddies in this forum already here for long time, i trust they will have their own judgement based on your explanation & highlights, thank you, paperplane.

I will write an article to talk about up & down of CCB way back to 2003 in due course,

Ya ya ya, paperplane, good luck to you if you don't buy CCB. Good luck to you also if you quietly buy CCB.

You keep bombing & making enemy around at Mudajaya & Gkent forums, but end up list both as your stock pick for 2016.

It will be great & fantastic if you can enlight us for your disorder actions, so we can learn something we don't have from you.

Would there be any chance of an account is being used by different people? That's my 2 cents guess.

Something disorder, but not sure what. Any one can help to point out?

Don't understand him, keep bombing icon at Mudajaya but end up pick Mudajaya as one of his top pick of the year. Sound crazy? But it is fact.

He is everywhere king

I am not car expert as well, I personally believe Mercedes, BMW & Audi are same class, Volvo & Volkswagen are targeting different segments.

Every man is definitely having his own dream cars, mine are Ferrari, Mercedes & BMW, plus Toyota Camry.

For car market, model design is very important, it decide whether you make it or not. Few years back when BWM released its current 5 Series model, I have been keep dreaming of having it one day in future. Mercedes? Forget it, such a old lady model type then.

Same goes to Honda City, the current model is selling hot because the design is brilliant! Toyota Vios is losing its ground.

Very good analysis! It is useful.

Thank you so much for the info, hyteo, it is always great to learn something new through discussions. It is correct attitude to look/study at various angles to see if the stock is the cup of your tea or not.

If you don't feel comfortable on any particular stock, just move on & look for next one, surely you can get one sooner or later.

Hyteo, the following can be seen from the 2014 annual report:

Most of the Group’s trade receivables are arising from financier in respect of finance provided to end customer, sales to reputable public listed companies and government or semi government institutions.

Kancs, I truly like this kind of discussions with various supporting facts and I sincerely believe you must have done the study & homeworks before giving your ideas & statements. (I know it judging from the way you are talking... :)

To look or study at CCB, the following are the important areas to consider:
1. Business model and market advantages
2. Management team
3. Cashflow management
4. Stock price (vs historical prices)
5. Current market conditions
6. Future market conditions

I will discuss the above in a seperate article in due course.

Meanwhile, i wish to highlight that no one had predicted Mercedes Benz can do so well in 2015, except may be salesman in their showrooms? XD

I have to admit that I am not good in predicting future market and that's why I never state my assumption for future growth, except for the next Quarter only.

My next year target for the sale of Mercedes Benz is 0-10% growth. Eventhough with that, it should be good for re-rating by market, I believe.

Very beautiful PE trending & profit growth.

However, the total operating expenses has dropped from RM3.479m to RM1.979m YoY in the latest QR, a saving of RM1.5m.

But the management did not explain a single word on this.


Hope it is sustainable in the coming QR, if yes, then it will be yearly saving of RM6m.

2 subsidiaries disposed off completely on 23/7/2015, not much dropped in revenue.

Origo was bought on 30/9/2015, see if can contribute positively or not in the latest quarter report.

Like what icon8888 did for stock pick 2015.

Support suggestion from paperplane, let us have a chance to learn from the best.

I need to amend for what I said previously, apology:

When Gadang & CCB are improving for past few years and even though the price has increased, the PE is indeed getting lower during the same period of time, then it has become interesting to me, it is where I see it as an opportunity to invest.

Warren said he is buying no matter how good or bad on market. Hope I can learn something from him.

Good night.

I try to avoid companies with sudden jump in profits due to gain on disposal of something or forex gain, that may also make PE low, but that's not sustainable in my opinion.

I rather miss the chance in investing those companies but wish all good return to those already invested.

Agreed, Desa, all property stocks now having very low PE, will I go in now? I don't think I will.

I can't predict as good as those masters/sifus on picking up export companies, I rather choose what I feel most comfortable.

I never trust bankers & newspapers, better do own homework, be responsible for own self.

Paperplane, this one I put up my hands to totally agree with what you said:

No wonder bank analyst never correct

Let's talk about market perception on PE, if look at all companies in bursa, every company will have different PE ratio. Even companies within the same industry may have different PE as well.

First of all, PE 10 is my target price, not my estimation on how the stock should go, you may have your own target price over CCB, say7, 8 or 9, I am ok with it anyway, as there are hundreds of people out there selling their CCB shares now at the current price/PE.

I can't decide for market & I do not think I have any authority or power to convince everyone to accept my view, or else, the price should have gone limit up on 31/12/2015 then.

I just want to share how I get it & hope you can understand my basis, agreeable or not, it is your choice. As I say in article, you are welcome to disagree. (I did mention in my article)

Mr Market is the one who will decide what is the right PE should go for a particular company. (Though Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett always think that Mr Market is always changing his mind or view on all stocks day in day out.)

Why I use historical average PE for the stock? Because that was the market view for the stock over the past years.

I have no idea why CCB is trading at lower PE than other car distributors, but I think everyone can put up as many assumptions as he wants to explain on the situation. I don't think I will spend my time of doing that.

Same goes to Gadang, I have no idea why Gadang was dropped from RM2 to RM1.16, then went up again to RM2.15, all happened within 6 months. All I can say is Mr Market is so unpredictable.

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I use the same basis of calculation to find out that CCB match my all criteria.

When Gadang & CCB are doing very well year after year for past few years, the PE is getting lower at the same period of time, then it is very interesting to me, it is where I see it as an opportunity to invest.

I think I have mentioned many times in various forums that first thing comes to my mind is the safety of my hard earned monies. Low PE is always providing good Margin of Safety.

Rule No.1: Don't lose money
Rule No.2: Always remember rule no.1

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I make good money from reading Icon8888's articles on Gadang in i3 forum & after doing my own homework. I think CCB is another good opportunity to me & I would like to return the same favour to i3 forum users by sharing my homework done on CCB.

Hope everyone can see what I see, I may not correct anyway & you should responsible & liable for your own action & do your own homework if you decide to invest in CCB after reading my CCB article.

不是你财不入你袋，勉强追或者跟风追，可能会得不偿失，宁愿让大家先跑，看有没有机会跟... :)

KYY stock selection not suitable to me, thanks for advice, Desa.

I prefer goes to those profits up recently, price up but yet still low PE.

I kiasi & kiasu, better let price run first, see if I can collect some later, if can not, ha, try to find next one.

Paperplane, most bankers' analysts use this method in case you don't know.

Let's talk about market perception on PE, if look at all companies in bursa, every company will have different PE ratio. Even companies within the same industry may have different PE as well.

First of all, PE 10 is my target price, not my estimation on how the stock should go, you may have your own target price over CCB, say7, 8 or 9, I am ok with it anyway, as there are hundreds of people out there selling their CCB shares now at the current price/PE.

I can't decide for market & I do not think I have any authority or power to convince everyone to accept my view, or else, the price should have gone limit up on 31/12/2015 then.

I just want to share how I get it & hope you can understand my basis, agreeable or not, it is your choice. As I say in article, you are welcome to disagree. (I did mention in my article)

Mr Market is the one who will decide what is the right PE should go for a particular company. (Though Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett always think that Mr Market is always changing its mind or view on all stocks day in day out.)

Why I use historical average PE for the stock? Because that was the market view for the stock over the past years.

I have no idea why CCB is trading at lower PE than other car distributors, but I think everyone can put up as many assumptions as he wants to explain on the situation. I don't think I will spend my time of doing that.

Same goes to Gadang, I have no idea why Gadang was dropped from RM2 to RM1.16, then went up again to RM2.15, all happened within 6 months. All I can say is Mr Market is so unpredictable.

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I use the same basis of calculation to find out that CCB match my all criteria.

When Gadang & CCB are doing very well year after year for past few years, the PE is getting lower at the same period of time, then it is very interesting to me, it is where I see it as an opportunity to invest.

I think I have mentioned many times in various forums that first thing comes to my mind is the safety of my hard earned monies. Low PE is always providing good Margin of Safety.

Rule No.1: Don't lose money
Rule No.2: Always remember rule no.1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I make good money from reading Icon8888's articles on Gadang in i3 forum & after doing my own homework. I think CCB is another good opportunity to me & I would like to return the same favour to i3 forum users by sharing my homework done on CCB.

Hope everyone can see what I see, I may not correct anyway & you should responsible & liable for your own action & do your own homework if you decide to invest in CCB after reading my CCB article.

Hi kancs, sum up PE for 2008 to 2014, exclude 2013 as it will be unrealistic, then divided by six years.

Hi Desa, I personally not agree it is cyclical stock, it is more down to the design of the models.

Hi kancs, sum up PE for 2008 to 2014, exclude 2013 as it will be unrealistic, then divided by six years.

Good luck & happy new year, Icon.

Good luck & happy new year, yee.

谢谢回复， bukithot, 你的图表呈现的很好，很有用处，新年快来！

Yes, hyteo, after transmile case, now we all see the breakdown of trade receivables in all annual reports.

Generally, the acceptable receivables over turnover ratio is 2-3 months, same goes to trade payables. Any longer terms will surely hurt the cashflow and high potential of turning bad.

Happy New Year to Everyone!!!

Though the trade receivables are relative small compared to turnover, but I do not know what is in it. I do now want to simply answer without any solid proof, sorry about that.

But I will not worry so much as the quantum is small, if the amount goes up to 200m or more, then you will not see me here answering you... :)

But for trade payable is easier to explain, when you buy goods, your suppliers will give you terms, the more you buy, the more you will hutang your supplier.

But to some extent, your supplier will not want to give more goods to you, then you will need to find other financial resources to finance the purchase of goods, then banking facilities like Bankers' Acceptance will be very useful.

Quite agree with you, zbaikitree2, I think I was trap in mind, I should have given better response, rather than just attacking only.

Good night & happy new year.

For easier understanding, stocks in hand include cars for display in the showrooms & for test drive purposes.

Good question, hyteo1992, we have to look at the inventories from the business point of view, you need to keep stocks to resale, when something is selling fast, you will tend to keep more stocks, if you read carefully on the stock turnover ratio below for the past 4 years, it is manageable & I would say in my opinion, very reasonable.

When your stock is only enough for less one month sale, you will risk the business with nothing to sell once no new stock come, that will hugely hurt the image of the company.
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2015Q3:
Revenue = 1,192m
Stocks in hand = 171m
Stock turnover ratio = 0.1435 (1.72 months)

2014:
Revenue = 922m
Stocks in hand = 85m
Stock turnover ratio = 0.092 (1.11 months)

2013:
Revenue = 645m
Stocks in hand = 116m
Stock turnover ratio = 0.1798 (2.16 months)

2012:
Revenue = 656m
Stocks in hand = 150m
Stock turnover ratio = 150/656= 0.2286 (0.2286 x 12 months = 2.74 months)

你的数据和图表呈现的很好，很忠实，也很容易让人明白和了解，但你的解读和个人看法实在让我无法苟同。我们一起来看看以下：

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你说：之前看到Merz的销量已经按月下滑，个人感觉明年难以保持像今年一样的高成长（今年的高成长%很大成分基于去年的low base effect），所以觉得上升空间不大了，就暂时卖出。其实CCB的本益比对比其他汽车业同行还是偏低的。

回答：
当你认同六倍的本益比是比其他汽车业同行偏低的时候，你可能不晓得六倍的本益比(PE Ratio)是远低于历史平均水平(13.94倍)。如果其他同行都享有更高的本益比，但为什么还能同时觉得CCB上升空间不大？盈利的成长远高于股价的成长，安全边际(Margin of Safety)不是更强稳更深厚吗？股票上升的空间不是也相对的更大吗？

另外，盈利成长493%, 全年应该更高，很大的成分其实并不是基于去年的low base effect, 比照过去八年的盈利记录，今年肯定是能创造八年来最高盈利记录。

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你说：由于明年的业绩成长的爆发力难以超越今年，所以成长空间很大部分取决于市场是否要给予PE rerating。除非明年每月平均卖>1200辆车。

回答：
这句话是前言不对后语。业绩需要靠市场的re-rating? 非常奇怪的论调，让人难以明白。也许我可以这样看，明年的业绩成长爆发力肯定无法重复今年的成长(+70%)，可能只是是10%，也许是20%，也许可能可以是30%-50%，但这个并不需要看股票市场的脸色。

如果每个月能有1000辆以上，就能马上有至少10%了，何须1200辆？

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你说：CCB如果恢复派息，Merz的新模型受市场欢迎的话还是可以有比较高的PE。

回答：这句话是后语跟前言无关，而且跟你前面说的话没有整体性的逻辑。前面说low PE, 上升空间不大，所以卖。现在说如果派息加新模型受市场欢迎，可以有较高的PE，那不是说有上升的空间吗？

再问一句，Merz的新模型不是已经证明受市场欢迎了吗？总销量成长70%，BMW同时跌1%，你要怎样才能判断新模型才是真正受市场欢迎？

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总结一句，你的论证是想要证明什么？有上升空间？还是没有？

不要学报纸上的专家，前面说会上，后面就保留说可能会下。不然前面就说会跌，后面就保留说如果这个如果那个，其实还是会上的。

Long waiting period will definitely force certain potential customers to look for other luxury brands.

Happy New Year to you too, Money_Master... :)

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY BUDDIES HERE!!!