nikicheong

nikicheong | Joined since 2017-02-10

Investing Experience -
Risk Profile -

Followers

16

Following

0

Blog Posts

0

Threads

2,295

Blogs

Threads

Portfolio

Follower

Following

Summary
Total comments
2,295
Past 30 days
74
Past 7 days
45
Today
2

User Comments
Stock

13 hours ago | Report Abuse

Officially India and Shapoorji doesn't seem to acknowledge Bumi Armada as a partner and no mention of Bumi Armada's contribution to the success of the project.

Stock

1 day ago | Report Abuse

Some of the analysts were quite optimistic that acceptance will happen in April 2024, zero chance of that. Earliest looks to be Q3 2024 if all goes to plan.

Stock

1 day ago | Report Abuse

Some bad news. According to my sources, Armada V Sterling is not going to attempt the final acceptance test anytime soon. There are still a lot of things pending.

For starters, the gas train has yet to be commissioned.

Final acceptance preparations will only begin after that.

They only said that acceptance will happen this year, maybe even towards the end of the year only.

Stock

2 days ago | Report Abuse

Shoplot accountants the lot of them.

Need to ask their CFO who pronounces millions as "minions"

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Gabriel, the least rate will drop by nearly 70%, that much is certain.

1. Per Enquest's last operational update: "The Group also expects unit margins to improve as the Kraken FPSO lease rate reduces by c. 70% from 1 April 2025, while the culmination of major projects at SVT will crystallise significant operating cost reductions and emission reductions in 2026 and beyond."

2. Basic calculation from the contract values:

Firm: USD1,400mil for 8yrs = USD175.00mil/annum
Option: USD924mil for 17yrs = USD54.35mil/annum

54.35/175 = 31.1% (i.e. reduction of 68.9% which matches Enquest's statement)

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

From RHB's report: Bumi Armada entered into a non-binding agreement to engineer a carbon capture injection
system for a gas field in Indonesia.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Now, share price-wise, we are back where we were 2 weeks ago.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Raymond's reporting is always the most detailed. The others like Maybank / Public Bank just write surface-level stuff to cari makan.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Anyone have the research report from UOB Bank? Appreciate if you could share.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

@Joshua, Armada TGT1 FPSO will unlikely face such impairment, as it is already at the end of its option period. Highly likely the carrying value of the FPSO is almost next to nothing.

As for Armada Sterling II, it is hard to say, but again, unlikely. There was already some adjustment done in the past for Armada Sterling II. Even if any, the impact should be a lot smaller as it's a significantly smaller project, and Bumi Armada only has a 50% stake.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

@Joshua, the Kraken contract will definitely be extended for some years. Safe to say, at least it will be extended for another 3 - 5 years, even in the absence of any new wells being drilled whatsoever. Whether it gets extended until 2042 is a question mark though. The Kraken field is still producing >20k barrels per day and additional drilling has been budgeted for into the field operator's FY2025 planning.

Given that Enquest has indicated it will exercise 1-yearly extensions to the charter, the question then really is, how long will they continue exercising those extensions for? Per their last update, the plan is still until early 2040s. However, Enquest can terminate the contract in the option period with a one year advance notice, and will need to pay for demobilization costs.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Weighted average term loan interest rate as at 31 Dec 2023: 8.67%
Weighted average term loan interest rate as at 30 Sep 2023: 8.75%

Another small but positive thing going forward. Debt servicing cost will now slowly start going down assuming no change in US Fed rates. Shows that the loans with the highest interest rates are being paid down / refinanced, which is sound credit management.

If the US Fed cuts rate, the servicing cost will go down even faster. On the other hand, if the US Fed increases rate, the debt servicing cost will increase once again.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

The more I think about the depreciation, the worse it seems to be. I recall reading previously that vessels usually see greater depreciation in the firm period, such that by the option period, the depreciation reduces.

Why then based on the analyst presentation slides, are the depreciation for Kraken constant throughout the firm + option period? Makes zero absolute sense. I've never heard of Yinson or any of the global FPSO giants facing this issue.

I wonder why this alternative method is not used: https://i.ibb.co/qkwhB79/b-armada-alternative-scenario.png

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Maybe Gary knows something we don't. Tank the share price, let his insiders buy, then announce some good news.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Felix, I can't seem to find him saying that in the past.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Zonefinder, the Kraken debt had been repaid for some time now. I recall it was repaid in full in Q2 2023.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

@Zonefinder, cashflows will not change due to this "impartment" as it is non-cash in nature. However, the future profits are likely to be inflated at the cost of the tanking we saw today.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Another update, the Mumbai FSRU project is officially DEAD.

There is no mention of it in the Bumi Armada investor deck, and also SP Energy has removed the project from the "ongoing projects" section of their website.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Also, I have checked in with Navigator Gas, and according to them, there will be an update on the Bluestreak CO2 JV when their Q4 2023 results are released in the 2nd half of March 2024.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Regardless, the depreciation in the upcoming quarters will be reduced. As such, barring any unforseen circumstances, FY2024 might just be the most profitable year, with each quarter's profits above RM250mil.

Let's see where this takes us. I do believe short of a disaster, long-term investors will still be rewarded at current share price levels (assuming zero new business other than extension contracts for existing projects).

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

Still the impairment seems silly. Surely the carrying value should be conservative. I don’t see other FPSO operators facing this issue. Simply means we as investors need to be wary that Bumi Armada’s FPSOs carrying values are likely overstated on their balance sheet. Especially Armada Olombendo, which is their golden goose. I shudder to think what the impairment for that would be come 2029.

Stock

3 days ago | Report Abuse

No Rohan, Kraken failure has no impact. This is unrelated. Kraken failure was recognized via lower revenue at that point in time already.

Stock
Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

ITreeinvestor none else ending soon, so no other near term risk of the same thing recurring. Next is still 3 years away and is a JV vessel

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

The investor presentation goes into some detail on the impairment adjustment. On the whole, I think it’s still a positive quarterly results.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

Core net profit to shareholders (after adjusting for net impairment): RM312.4mil




Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

Operating cash flow before changes in working capital for Q4 2023 was a staggering RM455mil. By far the highest ever in any given quarter.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

I won’t be surprised if this is just a blip. After all the impairment charges are completely non-cash in nature. The cash generating power of the business was the best it has ever been in Q4 2023

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

As investors, we must discount some of Bumi Armada’s net asset value as it might be overstated.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

Everything looks good except for the impairment. Too many impairments done for Kraken and SC vessels. Now all research houses will mark down target prices cause you never know when more impairments are due. Especially for Armada Olombendo.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

Roughly rm250mil reduction in net debt.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

There is also reversal of impairment of RM36.4mil. No information about this whatsoever.

So many hidden things that are not addressed by management.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

There is also this statement: “… resolution of outstanding issues with a charterer which resulted in higher revenue and a reversal of accrued costs.”

No clarity on what this refers to!

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

There are some funny hidden losses here. If you look at share of results for JV for “Others” segment in Q4 2023 (Page 15), there is a staggering loss of RM56mil.

This likely is related to front-loaded expenses for the Akia JV and/or Bluestreak JV. Good thing cause it shows there is some progress, though not mentioned explicitly.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

If discounting the impairment, the Q profit would’ve likely been above rm200mil, maybe touching rm300mil even. I need to do a proper analysis later, am out now.


Of course the other good thing is with the impairment, there will be lower depreciation expenses going forward.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

“ Even though there has been no change to the contracted charter cash flows,
adjustment to the carrying value of Armada Kraken FPSO (impairment) was required
in Q4 2023 mainly due to the impact caused by accounting depreciation recognised
on a straight-line basis and the reduction in the charter revenue during the optional
extension period.”

Surely this amounts to accounting fraud? Armada Kraken’s carrying value has been inflated all this while. No changes to contractual terms. The lease revenue dropped was known right from the beginning!

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

Haha. Now that’s one hell of a f-you!

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

Also, a key thing to look out for is repayment plans for the RM1.5b sukuk due in Sep 2024.

Stock

4 days ago | Report Abuse

A part of me hopes for something good from the results, but another part of me says don't expect anything out of the ordinary

Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

But again, profits mean nothing really. With sustained "good" profits, the company will probably head closer to 70 sen. But to go beyond that (looking at RM1.00 and above), the mantra is "new contracts, new contracts, and new contracts". Can't run away from that.

Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

Just got confirmation that Q4 2023 results will be released at 12.30pm on 28th Feb 2024.

Expectations would be of a net profit of ~RM200mil to RM220mil (after stripping off any one-offs). Anything above can be said to be a bonus, anything below will be a disappointment as the Kraken FPSO was back to 100% during the whole quarter.

Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

ConocoPhillips is ready at last to start a FEED competition for a floating production unit at the Salam-Patawali oil project offshore Sarawak, Malaysia.

ConocoPhillips has worked quietly on this project for some years, with its efforts last year focused on pre-FEED technical studies performed by floating production, storage and offloading specialists, according to Kuala Lumpur sources.

Market suggestions were that Malaysia's MISC, Dutch company Bluewater and a few other contractors had been engaged in last year's pre-FEED work.

Now, the focus has turned to a FEED competition to be performed by a minimum of two parties, with ConocoPhillips currently going through the process of selecting those companies.

All the top-tier Malaysian FPSO companies are keen on a new contract with a quality client, including BumiArmada with its Indian partner Shapoorji Pallonji Energy, MISC and
Yinson Holdings, all of which are currently wrapping up the delivery of FPSOs on their books.

Other Malaysian companies like MTC Engineering are also keen, while Bluewater is in the mix too.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/eagerly-awaited-malaysian-floater-project-advancing-as-oil-giant-narrows-contractor-field/2-1-1601411

Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

Gabriel, is that a guess or you checked with IR?

Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

Felix, this week or next week?