The calm before the storm...

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/fpso-contractor-confirms-upstream-oil-and-gas-debut/2-1-1524271

Interesting tidbit: Market sources informed that Bumi is also finalising a second upstream permit in Indonesia.

Previously, there were only two business units. "Operations" and "Others". See the previous structure:

--------------------

The Group is organised into 2 reportable segments to reflect the nature of activities carried out by its business
units, as follows:

(i) Operations – provision of FPSO vessels, Floating Gas Solutions unit, OSV vessels, SC assets and marine
related services.

(ii) Others – consists of the following:

• Technology, Engineering and Projects – provision of engineering consultancy and project support
services.

• Corporate and others – Management services and corporate support services provided to subsidiaries
which are considered incidental to the Group’s operating business.

The above is from Bumi Armada's website which has just been recently updated. It looks like they have added a new business unit on "Gas Infrastructure", and splitting "Subsea Construction" from their "Operations" business unit.

It's unclear what "Gas Infrastructure" entails, if it includes FSRU and FLNG or is referring to gas pipelines etc.

But the fact that they are creating this category, means that it will be a substantial business unit going forward.

Bumi Armada Berhad provides services throughout the oil and gas value chain – from exploration through to field development construction, production and operations – via three central business units.

Business Units

1. Operations - The Operations business unit specialises in engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning, and the operations of floating oil and gas facilities as per the specific requirements of clients.

2. Gas Infrastructure

3. Subsea Construction

Having simultaneously managed and delivered several large projects safely, the company has developed a reputation for its project management capabilities. We deliver innovative solutions and quality facilities that incorporate leading technologies to cater to your needs in field development, production and storage.

As an integrated oilfield services provider wherever your company is, in terms of field development and production, Bumi Armada offers a range of capabilities from life of field surveys, production facilities, installation and operations. Drawing on our decades of experience we will bring innovative solutions to bear, provide quality facilities safely and services as well as incorporate leading technologies where appropriate.

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/341911.pdf

Opportunities being actively pursued but with no finalised announcement as of yet:

1) FSRU at Mumbai Port - 50:50 JV with SP Energy
2) FCSIU in the UK - 50:50 JV with Navigator Gas
3) FLNG at Madura field - unknown ownership
4) Akia Field Operatorship in Indonesia - 51:49 JV with Pexco Energy
5) FPSO + FLNG (TBC) at Akia Field - unknown ownership

Recent positive news:

1) Armada Kraken back to producing at 100%, with two new HSP transformers brought abroad the FPSO to increase redundancy
2) 1 year contract extension for Armada Sterling II in the Mumbai High sector

Impending positive news:

1) First oil at the KG 98/2 field

Other positive catalysts:

1) Contract extension at the Armada TGT field (official announcement might only come sometime next year)

Another beautiful official announcement, adding some additional information to what we've already known previously.

Bumi Armada stands to get 2 levels of benefits here:

1st level: 51% operatorship, i.e. 51% of the net profits for every barrel of oil (or gas equivalent) sold.
2nd level: Charter income from the lease of the FPSO + FLNG

It's interesting that there's potential for BOTH FPSO and FLNG here.

This is now the 4th official announcement in as many months of future intent, though nothing concrete as of yet. If they were all to take off...mama mia!

Bumi Armada Berhad (“Bumi Armada”), wishes to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary Armada Akia B.V (“AABV”) (as Operator with 51% participating interest) and its co-bidder, Pexco Tarakan NV (“Pexco”) (with 49% participating interest), have signed a Production Sharing Contract with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia for the Akia PSC in the Tarakan Basin, North Kalimantan Province ("PSC").

The Akia PSC covers an area of 8,394 square kilometers and contains the Aster and Tulip oil and gas discoveries. The Tulip discovery has an estimated recoverable resource of 860 BCF of gas and 60 MMboe of oil and condensate. Plans are to acquire new 3D seismic over the Tulip discovery to evaluate the potential for a fast-track development. The water depth at the Tulip discovery is 800m and Bumi Armada would provide and operate an FPSO and an FLNG or gas pipeline for the development. This leverages Bumi Armada’s core expertise of providing and operating floating production systems.

The Pexco Group is an independent upstream exploration and production group of companies. It currently operates two Production Sharing Contracts in Indonesia.

The AABV and Pexco consortium signing the PSC is a related party arrangement. Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd ("OBSB"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd ("UTSB"), has a direct 34.61% interest in Bumi Armada. Tatparanandam Anantha Krishnan is a major shareholder of Bumi Armada (by virtue of his deemed interest through, inter alia, UTSB and OBSB), and also holds a 100% indirect interest in Pexco. No related party transaction announcement is required to be made by Bumi Armada at this stage as the relevant percentage ratio has not been exceeded.

The announcement is dated 25 September 2023.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3387592

The first of the new transformer units was delivered approximately two weeks ago and is now online. The second new unit is expected to arrive this weekend.

-----------
Update on Kraken from my source

@MM78 I wouldn't want Bumi Armada to pay out dividends anytime soon. Rather them use the money to pare down debts, and to reinvest into the business. Once they reach a point where they have lots of money and no idea what to do with it, then and only then, they should be paying out dividends.

Who is Fred Tham? Come share newsletter for us all

Big guns buying or insiders know something's up.

A joint venture of India’s Shapoorji Pallonji Energy (SP Energy) and Malaysia’s Bumi Armada has achieved financial closure on a $948 million loan facility for the Armada Sterling V floating production, storage and offloading vessel deployed at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation’s delayed KG-DWN-98/2 asset.

The FPSO is set to begin production within a month or two at ONGC’s $5 billion Cluster 2 development offshore India’s eastern coast, where months-long delay to first oil from the FPSO has led to financial headaches for the JV in the absence of steady revenues from the ONGC project.

For Bumi Armada, the delay affected its ability to satisfy one of the conditions in the disbursement of its FPSO financing facility.

However, Bumi Armada confirmed this week in an announcement on the Bursa Malaysia exchange that its subsidiary “has successfully achieved financial close under its long-term project financing facility of $948 million” for the east coast Indian FPSO.

“The disbursement proceeds from the project facility have been utilised by A98/2 (the company subsidiary) to fully repay its $930 million bridge loan facility,” the company stated.

Awaiting hydrocarbons

Bumi added that the Armada Sterling V FPSO “is awaiting hydrocarbons from ONGC to conduct the necessary acceptance tests to achieve final acceptance”.

While Bumi has not specified a start-up date, Upstream understands that the first oil from the ONGC project will likely be achieved by October.

Bumi has a 30% interest in the joint venture with Shapoorji Pallonji Energy, which holds the majority stake of 70%.

The Armada Sterling V FPSO is expected to handle up to 60,000 barrels per day of oil at peak production.

The floater was a conversion from the tanker Ariake by Seatrium (Sembcorp Marine) and is understood to be the largest FPSO in Indian waters, with a storage capacity of 800,000 barrels of oil.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/joint-venture-closes-on-948-million-loan-facility-for-indias-largest-fpso/2-1-1517846

Some further good news for the Armada TGT FPSO.

"TGT Revised Field Development Plan (RFDP) approved by MOIT, drilling rig tender is in progress for 2024 drilling campaign".

https://www.pharos.energy/investors/press-releases/interim-results-for-the-half-year-to-30-june-2023/

--------

The contract is due to expire in Dec 2024 but quite clearly it will be extended, perhaps up to 2031.

A hidden easter egg in the press release (final sentence):

"Bumi Armada is currently engineering a carbon capture injection system for a gas field in Indonesia."

However, of all these announcements, this seems to be the most definitive and has the clearest pathway to materialising as it is a "Heads of Agreement".

Also, it's been confirmed, this is a FLNG. Big win for Bumi Armada if and when the contract is finalised and officially awarded!!!

A lot of signings recently but we need a concrete contract award to be sure of anything. Recall, the Mumbai Port FSRU was disclosed on May 2021 but until now nothing.

So we have 3 green energy plays in the pipeline with nothing certain yet:

1) Mumbai Port FSRU (50:50 with Shapoorji) - Announced May 2021
2) Transport of Liquified CO2 and Floating Carbon Storage & Injection Unit (50:50 with Navigator Gas) - Announced June 2023
3) FLNG + LNG Carrier (unknown JV structure with Pertamina Shipping) - Announced September 2023

Officially announced to Bursa Malaysia:

13 September, 2023 – Bumi Armada Berhad (“Bumi Armada”), today announced the signing of a nonbinding agreement with PT Pertamina International Shipping (“Pertamina International Shipping”), a
shipping and marine logistics subholding of Pertamina, Indonesia’s state-owned energy company, and
PT Davenergy Mulia Perkasa (“DMP”), an Indonesian natural gas trading company to record key
principles to develop and commercialise liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) from the Madura Gas Field and
its surrounding fields.

By leveraging the expertise and experience of its potential consortium members, it is anticipated that
Bumi Armada and Pertamina International Shipping will design, engineer, construct, install,
commission, hook up and operate a floating natural gas liquefaction and storage facility, together with
an LNG carrier to transport LNG to consumers who are not proximate to clean energy sources.

DMP is dedicated to advancing Indonesia's LNG market while actively contributing to the nation's
growth. This commitment is reflected through the delivery of reliable and sustainable energy solutions
that support the nation's net-zero aspiration.

Preliminary discussions have been initiated with several potential off-taker clients and the first
shipment of LNG is anticipated to take place three years after making final investment decision.
Gary Christenson, Bumi Armada’s Chief Executive Officer, said: “We are excited to collaborate with
Pertamina International Shipping and DMP in this opportunity to bring sustainable and scalable
solutions to reduce carbon emissions in Indonesia, which is also in line with Bumi Armada’s recently
launched decarbonization agenda to achieve net zero by 2050. This collaboration is a testament to
our strong commitment towards providing the best decarbonization solutions globally.”

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=140265&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

If it's a FLNG with Bumi Armada being the leading partner, that's a big win. Let's wait for more details.

Not sure if this means Bumi Armada is going to develop and operate a FLNG + LNG carrier. Not clear on the structure of the JV as well. Unsure of the potential financial impact.

What is good about this is that the Armada Sterling III FPSO, whose firm charter period ends in 2027, will continue to see charter extensions for a long time to come.

I wonder if TheEdge jumped the gun, there is not yet any announcement to Bursa on this, no press release on the Bumi Armada website too.

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 13): Bumi Armada Bhd has signed a non-binding agreement with PT Pertamina International Shipping and PT Davenergy Mulia Perkasa (DMP), an Indonesian natural gas trading company, for the development and commercialisation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Madura gas field.

In a statement on Wednesday, Bumi Armada said the agreement would outline the key principles to develop and commercialise LNG from the Madura gas field and its surrounding fields.

Pertamina International Shipping is the shipping and marine logistics sub holding of Indonesia’s state-owned energy company Pertamina.


It said preliminary discussions have been initiated with several potential off-taker clients and the first shipment of LNG is anticipated to take place three years after making the final investment decision.

Bumi Armada chief executive officer Gary Christenson said: “We are excited to collaborate with Pertamina International Shipping and DMP in this opportunity to bring sustainable and scalable solutions to reduce carbon emissions in Indonesia, which is also in line with Bumi Armada’s recently launched decarbonisation agenda to achieve net zero by 2050. This collaboration is a testament to our strong commitment towards providing the best decarbonisation solutions globally”.

Bumi Armada and Pertamina International Shipping are expected to collaborate, utilising their respective expertise and experience, in the development of a floating natural gas liquefaction and storage facility.

The collaboration aims to design, engineer, construct, install, commission, hook up and operate the facility, along with an LNG carrier. The parties also intend to transport LNG to consumers located in areas that lack access to clean energy sources.

Bumi Armada shares were 1.9% or one sen higher at 53 sen at time of writing on Wednesday, translating to a market capitalisation of over RM3.1 billion.

@Felix888, the USD930mil loan is a "bridge loan" for the construction period. It's a lumpsum amount to be repaid.

The new USD948mil loan that has been drawn down to repay the bridge loan of USD930mil is a "project financing loan". It is to be repaid on a monthly basis over the firm charter period. Think of it like your car loan, once disbursement done, from next month onwards you have to repay a monthly installment.

This might also mean that Armada Sterling V has been able to secure standby rates from ONGC, otherwise without income how to start servicing the loan.

Bumi Armada Berhad ("BAB") refers to the disclosure in its quarterly announcement for the quarter ended 30 June 2023 regarding its 30% associated company, Armada 98/2 Pte Ltd ("A98/2"), and wishes to announce that A98/2 has successfully achieved financial close under its long term project financing facility of USD948 million ("Project Facility").

The disbursement proceeds from the Project Facility have been utilised by A98/2 to fully repay its USD930 million bridge loan facility.

As at the date of this announcement, the ASV FPSO is awaiting hydrocarbons from ONGC to conduct the necessary acceptance tests to achieve final acceptance.

The announcement is dated 12 September 2023.

---------------

Mildly positive news, means the project financiers are satisfied that first oil should be here soon and that other than the delay in first oil, everything else is in place and ready to go.

@KML most likely same rate, as this is only an extension. The loan has been fully repaid, the vessel has been significantly depreciated. So the margins are a lot higher. It's very normal for extension contracts to fetch lower dayrates as a result.

I have received confirmation from Pharos Energy's IR that Bumi Armada have submitted a proposal for the extension of the lease of the Armada TGT FPSO to Pharos Energy and they are currently in the midst of negotiating the extension. A formal announcement would be made once the extension is confirmed.

ABS Awards AIP for Bumi Armada’s Pioneering Carbon Storage and Injection Vessel

ABS has awarded Approval in Principle (AIP) for Bumi Armada’s pioneering design for a floating carbon storage and injection unit (FCSIU).

Bumi Armada’s FCSIU concept is a floating terminal capable of storing and injecting liquified carbon dioxide (LCO2) into depleted oil and gas fields or aquifers. This novel concept incorporates the ability to accept LCO2 deliveries in an offshore setting, the flexibility to manage LCO2 at low or medium pressure, the provision of LCO2 buffer storage and the preparation of LCO2 for sequestration - permanent storage of CO2 deep beneath the seabed.

The FCSIU can receive LCO2 from various sources, such as electricity generation, manufacturing and construction, offering a new solution for reducing CO2 emissions from these industries.

The AIP is applicable to either a new build or a converted donor carrier, with smaller tanks to optimize the cargo space layout.

“Carbon capture and reinjection in depleted fields is a promising technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and it is likely that this process will become more widespread and play an increasingly important role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. ABS is a leader in the field and is committed to supporting the safe development and adoption of the technology,” said John McDonald, ABS President and Chief Operating Officer.

Gary Christenson, Bumi Armada’s Chief Executive Officer, said, “We are excited to bring sustainable and scalable solutions to reduce carbon emissions, which is also in line with Bumi Armada’s recently launched decarbonization agenda to achieve net zero by 2050. This solution is a testament to our strong commitment towards providing the best decarbonization solutions globally.”

https://news.cision.com/american-bureau-of-shipping/r/abs-awards-aip-for-bumi-armada-s-pioneering-carbon-storage-and-injection-vessel,c3830219

State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) on Tuesday said that crude oil production from its KG-DWN-98/2 block in the Krishna-Godavari basin is expected to hit 10,000 barrels per day (b/d) by November 2023.

Besides, the output from the block will double to 20,000 b/d by the end of the current financial year. It is also targeting to reach an output of 45,000 b/d by FY25, the oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) major said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-ongc-invest-242-bln-meet-net-zero-emissions-goal-2023-08-29/

https://www.petrowatch.com/synopsis.php?artId=21067

Indian O&G site mentions: "ONGC is supremely confident it can meet its latest October 2023 deadline to begin first oil production from the deepwater Cluster-2 fields"

https://www.xm.com/research/markets/allNews/reuters/indias-ongc-sees-oil-output-from-east-coast-deep-waters-in-octnov-53627159

"INDIA ONGC EXEC: INTEND TO COMMENCE OIL PRODUCTION FROM DEEP WATER FIELD IN THE EAST COAST BLOCK IN OCT-NOV"

--------------

I'll see it when I believe it, but the difference this time seems to be that even Bumi Armada specifically mentioned October 2023 as the likely first oil date. In the past, they never mentioned a particular month.

Bumi Armada's future looks lackluster at the moment. No major FPSO project in the pipeline, which is the biggest worry. Of course , there might be some FPSO bids/tenders ongoing that's not being spoken about in the market and a sudden announcement of a contract win cannot be discounted, though it also cannot be hoped for.

The UOB guy is referring to this: https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/operations/ICOP_PDFs/EnQ_ICOP_Kraken_2021_07_F.pdf

-----------

From the UOB Report:

Kraken’s Infrastructure Code Of Practice (ICOP) document, a key document behind our SELL downgrade in June, shows that all of the FPSO’s processing equipment (not just the HSP transformers) were expected to reach critical ullage constraint from 2023. In our view, for BAB to avoid another unplanned FPSO breakdown, the more prudent action must involve “diagnosing” the entire FPSO’s processing topsides, and we understand that this is not necessarily in its current plans."

------------

I think it's a whole bunch of nonsense. This document has been published sometime last year. It's simply talking about capacity constraints as a part of the normal BAU and nothing out of the ordinary. If anything, it's in the FPSO operators best interest to stretch capacity to the maximum possible before replacing/refurbishing, to eke out every last dollar. Of course, it's a balancing act, take it too far, and you're faced with shut-ins. As far as I see this, seasoned FPSO operators such as Bumi Armada would already have a plan for tackling capacity constraints as they arise. Ultimately, they want to hit >95% production efficiency for those sweet, sweet bonus payout.

In Q3 2023, we should still see a hit of around RM40mil due to the production deficit in July and early August, before the FPSO was back to 100% production.

1) With Kraken back online, we're looking at around RM150-160mil net profit per quarter in Q4 2023 (roughly 2.50 sen to 2.65 sen per share).

2) This is excluding the income expected from the Armada Sterling V, which has been touted to be around RM100mil - RM130mil per annum. Conservatively, lets take RM100mil per annum net profit, or RM25mil per quarter (equivalent to 0.40 sen per share), and discount it by a further 40% to account for production issues or other challenges. That's still RM60mil per annum, or RM15mil per quarter (which would translate to 0.25 sen per share).

Long story short, if everything goes according to BAU, Armada Sterling V should contribute at least 0.40 sen per share per quarter, but if we anticipate production challenges, we can pencil in a lower 0.25 sen per share to account for those challenges.

3) At the same time, the two subsea construction (SC) vessels in the Caspian Sea are idle. By my estimates, every quarter of work for each vessel will contribute roughly 0.25 sen per share respectively per quarter. This is because the vessels incur significantly fixed costs just staying idle (namely depreciation expenses), and then of course taking into account the profit margin when a contract is awarded.

4) Finally, JV income was lower this quarter by about RM10mil from the expected. So when this normalizes it should also boost profits higher.

---------

Long story short, after accounting for items 1 - 4 above, assuming all are operational in Q1 2024, we could see up to a quarterly net profit of around RM210mil to RM220mil. Even if the SC vessels remain idle, we should still see quarterly net profits upwards of RM180mil.

Of course, all these are not taking into account any potential new contract wins etc. I for one am no longer holding my breath for that!

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=6b75fbd3-73ef-428a-93ce-39ae73086398

Thanks uncle!

Anyone have the report from RHB, UOB or CIMB, pls share

There appears to be around a RM105m hit to the net profit from Kraken in Q2 2023 (around RM65mil from loss of revenue and RM40mil from cost of repairs).

In Q3 2023, I expect another RM25m to RM30m hit to the net profit from this.

I’m on a holiday, not had a chance to take an in-depth look yet.

On the face of it, results are mildly positive as there are no impairments booked for Kraken, means long-term nothing has changed following the return to 100% production.

Obviously the impact in Q2 is a lot more significant, as there was nearly one month of zero production. In Q3 the impact should be lower as there was 3 weeks at 60% and another 3 weeks at 90% production levels.

Another positive is Bumi Armada mentioned Oct 2023 for the expected date for first oil for Armada Sterling V. Let’s see if it happens.

I'm glad that we can now firmly put the Kraken troubles behind us, but it's worrying that there are so many "bad news":

1) No Cameia FPSO award (which was a dead-certain lock not too long ago)
2) Further delay to Armada Sterling V first oil date, and uncertain if there will be any compensation due to the Shapoorji-Bumi Armada JV
3) No Mumbai FSRU award
4) No firm award / details on the Floating Carbon Storage Injection Unit (FCSIU)

Only minor positive has been 1 year extension awarded to Armada Sterling II a few weeks ago.

Reference is made to the announcements made by Bumi Armada Berhad ("Bumi Armada") on 2 June 2023, 21 June 2023 and 20 July 2023 respectively in relation to the unplanned shutdown of the Armada Kraken FPSO ("Kraken FPSO") owned by Bumi Armada’s wholly owned subsidiary, Armada Kraken Pte Ltd.

Bumi Armada wishes to announce that an additional HSP transformer has been reconditioned from the failed HSP transformer units. Following successful installation of this second reconditioned HSP transformer on the Armada Kraken FPSO, the vessel's operational performance has now been restored to pre-shutdown levels.

With the current three (3) working HSP transformers, redundancy is expected to be restored when a fourth new HSP transformer, which is estimated to arrive in September, is successfully installed on the Armada Kraken FPSO.

This announcement is dated 9 August 2023.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3375389

Bloody hell! Why am I not surprised. Indian nationals are known to overpromise and underdeliver.

First oil from Oil & Natural Gas Corporation’s (ONGC's) flagship KG-DWN-98/2 deepwater project offshore India is poised for further delays after the field’s critical subsea infrastructure recently suffered damage.

The $5 billion Cluster-2 development off the country's east coast will be developed by 26 subsea wells feeding up to 60,000 barrels per day to a floating production, storage and offloading...

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/subsea-damage-delays-ongc-5-billion-flagship-deepwater-project/2-1-1496065

HSP transformer installation successfully completed and operational on the FPSO. Immediate results are encouraging. Might still take a few days to stabilise at 100% production rates.

An announcement should be due soon.

If successful, we'll get an official announcement from Bumi Armada either tomorrow or latest, by Wednesday lunch time.

We hope to reinstate an additional HSP transformer unit to service in the next 24 hours, which should enable full production to resume at Kraken.

@KML889, you're missing the point. One quarter of the FCF will evaporate when Kraken firm charter period ends in 2025 (assuming it then takes up the lease options). One half of the FCF will evaporate in 2030 when Olombendo firm charter ends (assuming options are exercised). Replenishments to the orderbook need to happen fast!

Managed to get some information from someone in Bumi Armada. The reason is purely down to costing, Bumi Armada was unable to deliver at the budget set by TotalEnergies.

Yes Cameia FPSO is 100% a dead in the water for Bumi Armada. Search is ongoing for a replacement.

Guys, the excuse that Bumi Armada is "being selective" is wearing thin. Other operators who are handling 3, 4 or 5 projects at any given time have the luxury of "being selective". I feel there might be more to this, that Bumi Armada's core competency is being called into question. Time will tell.

Truth be told, were it not for the ample margin of safety at the current price levels, I might've sold out. No Cameia FPSO. CCS project still at least 3.5 years away. The Indonesia venture into field development is 10 years away from commercial viability. Armada Sterling V plagued by never-ending delays. A whole lot of nothing to be excited about.