nikicheong

nikicheong | Joined since 2017-02-10

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Stock

2023-06-01 17:15 | Report Abuse

June is going to be a momentous month for Bumi Armada.

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2023-05-31 13:45 | Report Abuse

"ONGC is expecting first oil from the FPSO in 2nd Quarter of FY2024" - from ONGC recent investor meet on 29 May 2023

This is some bad news. The FPSO start-up is being further delayed. There seems to be issues with the subsea infrastructure.

Note: ONGC financial year end for FY 2024 is March 2024. As such, Q2 FY2024 = July to September 2023.

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2023-05-29 12:47 | Report Abuse

Very interesting price dynamics indeed. As a long-term shareholder, all we can do is just sit and wait.

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2023-05-27 23:39 | Report Abuse

Can MCA vote in the EGM? Or are they forced to abstain?

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2023-05-27 13:03 | Report Abuse

Robert, I agree Maybank makes the most convincing case, IF you disregard any potential growth prospects.

We know from the AGM, there will be one exciting announcement in June. The CEO mentioned it himself.

However, Maybank’s target price is also a bit b-@#$hit as they do not factor in option periods of the FPSOs. Unlike Yinson, where they factor in the full option period for producing FPSO. So my question would be why exclude that value? Why ascribe zero value to option periods, when they do it for the other comparable company?

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2023-05-26 17:36 | Report Abuse

Thank you good sir!

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2023-05-26 15:10 | Report Abuse

Anybody have research report from UOB or Affin Hwang?

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2023-05-26 11:15 | Report Abuse

Yes, obviously that's the mismatch. No growth = no excitement = no interest. That's where we are at, right now.

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2023-05-26 10:37 | Report Abuse

Target price movement summary:

Maybank: RM0.58 (unchanged)
AmInvest: RM0.86 (unchanged)
CIMB: RM0.87 (+18 sen)
RHB: RM0.80 (+10 sen)
MIDF: RM0.83 (+3 sen)

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2023-05-26 10:15 | Report Abuse

Some positive updates from Vietnam:

- TGT Revised Field Development Plan (RFDP) for two new wells has been submitted to the regulator for approval. Drilling expected to commence in Q2/Q3 2024
- Application for extensions to TGT & CNV licences. Discussions ongoing between partners and PVN on licence terms and work programme commitments for the extension period

https://www.pharos.energy/investors/press-releases/2023-agm-trading-and-operations-update/

Officially the TGT FPSO contract is due to end in Dec 2024, but an extension to Dec 2026 is all but certain and a further extension to Dec 2031 is highly likely contingent on field license extension approval.

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2023-05-26 09:51 | Report Abuse

Yes Gabriel, but it's not producing oil. As the CEO mentioned during the AGM yesterday, the FPSO vessel is ready, but there are delays on the subsea contractors at the 98/2 field. These subsea contractors are hired by ONGC.

So how long is the delay going to be? The FPSO vessel was ready since January 2023...that's a lot of lost revenue/profits. Surprised no analyst pressed on this.

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2023-05-26 09:23 | Report Abuse

The title for CIMB's report is "New contract wins beckon".

The difference between CIMB and Maybank's TP is purely based on the future expectations. Maybank assumes no new contract wins and no option period extensions for the FPSO charters. CIMB assumes one EPC contract win and 75% of option period extension.

And , we know from yesterday's AGM, that there is one pending announcement due in June 2023 (not related to FPSO segment). So CIMB might be right, they know Bumi Armada is due to win more than just a FPSO contract.

What I find odd is neither of these reports talk about the status of the Armada Sterling V FPSO. That project is mildly worrying as apparently every component of the 98/2 project is NOT YET READY except for the FPSO. Mind you, that is a mega development with fixed platforms etc. The FPSO is just a small part of the puzzle.

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2023-05-26 09:08 | Report Abuse

Good report, thanks for sharing. If you have the PDF, that'd be great Gabriel.

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2023-05-26 07:53 | Report Abuse

Please share research reports. Especially interested in reading the report from CIMB.

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2023-05-25 23:34 | Report Abuse

This will be the last time I share trend analysis on Bumi Armada's debt situation, as the company is out of the woods and no longer has any debt concerns.

Table: https://i.ibb.co/R24Ch1m/armada-23q1-debt.png

Time series: https://i.ibb.co/Csz6vBL/armada-23q1-ts.png

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2023-05-25 16:52 | Report Abuse

The RM1.5bil sukuk due in September will be refinanced when the time comes - whether in MYR or USD, to be assessed in Q1 next year

The growth plan for the future will be known throughout the rest of the year heading into 2024. CEO mentioned these projects, study, discussions and awards take a long time to materialise

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2023-05-25 16:47 | Report Abuse

Looks like they're working on multiple new projects, especially on the green energy side. The CFO was teasing a lot saying Bumi Armada is "match fit" on numerous occasions.

The ONGC FPSO is ready for first oil but the delay is from ONGC and its subsea contractors. Management in discussion on the financial penalty of the delay.

The Mumbai FSRU project is still progressing but no urgency as LNG prices have skyrocketed. Alternative designs have been shared

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2023-05-25 16:43 | Report Abuse

"Some notification coming up next month"

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2023-05-25 16:06 | Report Abuse

Management sounding upbeat, CFO says Bumi Armada is "match fit" for new projects.

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2023-05-25 15:38 | Report Abuse

My man Gary, been seeing him every year now

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2023-05-25 13:56 | Report Abuse

A neutral share price for now should be within RM0.70 - RM0.80 range

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2023-05-25 13:55 | Report Abuse

@Bon888 don't simply compare. Yinson's debt are mostly secured loans tied to specific projects.

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2023-05-25 13:53 | Report Abuse

Armada's P/E ratio should be in the 6x range for now. A higher P/E ratio will only be warranted if there is future growth baked into the share price. At the moment, minimal (or maybe even zero) future growth is baked-in as the company has thus far failed miserably to secure new FPSO contracts. If we get one or two decent FPSO contracts, expect to see the share price shooting up to 10x - 15x P/E.

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2023-05-25 13:18 | Report Abuse

Reported Net Profit to Shareholders: RM201.0m

Adjustments:
Gain on Disposal of JV: -RM0.3m
Reversal of impairment: -RM1.3m
Unrealised FX loss: +RM6.0m
Loss on hedging: +RM1.7m

Core Net Profit: RM207.1m

NOTE: There is also a small gain on insurance claim of RM0.4m. Stripping this off, the core net profit is RM206.7m.

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2023-05-25 13:16 | Report Abuse

Just one project and Bumi Armada will take-off. Everything looks good and in order otherwise.

Please be hard and ask probing questions during the AGM

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2023-05-25 13:15 | Report Abuse

WE NEED ONE FREAKING PROJECT!!!

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2023-05-25 13:10 | Report Abuse

The results do not yet factor in the sale of Armada Claire FPSO and the final OSV, which will only be booked in Q2 2023 results. Looks like there will be a minor gain on disposal of around RM10m to RM15m from these.

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2023-05-25 13:08 | Report Abuse

Reported Net Profit to Shareholders: RM201.0m

Adjustments:
Gain on Disposal of JV: -RM0.3m
Reversal of impairment: -RM1.3m
Unrealised FX loss: +RM6.0m
Loss on hedging: +RM1.7m

Core Net Profit: RM207.1m

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2023-05-25 12:40 | Report Abuse

Topline RM6.1b, NPAT RM1.4b.

How do these figures look like?

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2023-05-25 12:24 | Report Abuse

Good luck boys, and see you guys at the AGM. Please ask and ask, tons of questions.

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2023-05-25 10:05 | Report Abuse

Unlikely to announce new project at the AGM, because new projects have to be announced as soon as they are finalized, unless they finalize the new project today, which is quite unlikely.

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2023-05-24 21:01 | Report Abuse

Excluding one-off gains/losses, the quarterly profit should be within the range of RM200mil to RM220mil. Anything below RM180mil will be a disappointment.

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2023-05-24 17:40 | Report Abuse

Judgement at 12.35pm tomorrow!

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2023-05-24 13:24 | Report Abuse

Profits up due to no cukai makmur...shouldn't it already be largely priced in?

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2023-05-24 12:24 | Report Abuse

Patience my friends, patience.

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2023-05-23 09:06 | Report Abuse

Any idea when quarterly report out?

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2023-05-23 08:57 | Report Abuse

Malaysia’s national upstream company Petronas Carigali has kicked off the tender process for a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel for the standalone development of its Bestari deep-water oilfield offshore Sabah, East Malaysia.

Petronas has been aiming to develop some of its key deep-water fields on the back of improved oil prices and market fundamentals, but the state giant shied away from taking the final investment decision on crucial projects including Limbayong, for which the process to charter a floater was shelved on multiple occasions.

However, Bestari, which is much smaller in size, provides an opportunity for Petronas to gain hands-on experience with deep-water developments and implement those learning on complex projects which have much higher capital expenditure, sources said.

The Malaysian giant has approached domestic and international floater specialists seeking budgetary quotes for an FPSO with a production capacity of at least 15,000 barrels per day (bpd) for Bestari, multiple people familiar with the development told Upstream.

Some of the key contenders which might queue up include domestic players— MISC, Yinson, MTC and Bumi Armada. India’s Shapoorji Pallonji Energy is also likely to be interested in a groping with Bumi Armada, one person noted.

Another one suggested that international contractors including BW Offshore could also have been approached for Bestari during the initial phase, but this could not be independently confirmed.

More clarity on the potential bidders for Bestari is likely to emerge at a later stage, once the bid process further progresses, industry sources said.

Upstream understands the operator has changed tactics from its earlier stance of developing the Limbayong field via a larger FPSO with the Bestari oilfield as a potential tie-back to benefit the Limbayong economics.

Various studies have been conducted for Limbayong, but Petronas Carigali could make the budget work amid the post-Covid high costs of labour and materials. It now seems that Bestari’s crude will be exploited first with Limbayong put on the — albeit likely temporary — backburner.

“They want to kick off with a relatively smaller project like Bestari at this stage," one source said.

Upstream has contacted Petronas for comment regarding its plans for Bestari.

An industry source pointed out that it might not be an easy task for Petronas to get a relatively smaller floater for Bestari at short notice, considering key international FPSO contractors are dealing with multiple prospects in Brazil and other key American markets.

“It [FPSO] is a very busy market with multiple new prospects coming up. Operators need to be decisive for securing units,” he said.

The conventional oilfield, which lies in a water depth of 4593 feet (approximately 1400 metres) on Block R offshore Sabah, was discovered in 2015 by Japan’s JX Nippon.

The Bestari-1 discovery well in March of that year encountered 67 metres of net oil pay in multiple sand packages within the Miocene-aged primary objectives at depths from 1860 metres to 2702 metres.

Petronas Carigali in March confirmed to Upstream that it pulled the plug on Limbayong, potentially with Bestari as a satellite tie-back, after being unable to make the economics stand up.

Limbayong was expected to produce almost 40,000 bpd of oil however the up-front costs required for a larger capacity FPSO would have been much higher than for Bestari.

In recent years, the operator had conducted at least three tender exercises for the Limbayong floater, much to the frustration of contractors that had invested time and money to bid on several occasions only for the project not to progress.

“The Limbayong development certainly has challenging economics, evident from the several delays and discussions for multiple development concepts. In the event of proceeding solely with Bestari's development, it is expected that the planned floater capacity will see a significant reduction of over 50%. However, it reflects Petronas' commitment to developing these discovered deep-water resources,” Prateek Pandey, Rystad Energy’s vice president E&P research Southeast Asia, told Upstream.

“Nonetheless, the progress made on the deep-water oil project promises to enhance Petronas' portfolio and tap into the immense potential of deep-water Sabah,” said Pandey.

"Limbayong is not [permanently] shelved yet, it could be taken up as a separate project in the future,” another source said.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/petronas-kicks-off-chase-for-key-fpso-offshore-sabah/2-1-1454440

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2023-05-22 09:35 | Report Abuse

US oil company ConocoPhillips is re-engaging with suppliers of floating, production, storage and offloading vessels as it seeks to unlock the development of its Salam-Patawali oil project offshore Sarawak in Malaysian waters.

ConocoPhillips operates offshore Block WL4-00, which is home to the Salam, Patawali and Benum oil discoveries.

The big US independent has been working discreetly on development solutions for the project for a few years, and is currently eyeing the potential for first production by as early as 2026, industry sources told Upstream.

The company recently initiated a process for carrying out technical studies on the project, engaging with leading FPSO contractors in the region, according to sources with direct knowledge of the development.

“They [ConocoPhillips] plan to carry out technical studies for the FPSO, a process which is similar to the project’s pre-front end engineering and design phase,” one well-placed source said.

FPSO contractors in contention include the Malaysians Bumi Armada, MISC and Yinson Holdings while global players such as Bluewater and BW Offshore are also in the running.

FPSO companies with an available floater that can be redeployed are likely to be favoured although, given the shrinking global pool of redeployable FPSOs, the possibility of supplying a new vessel based on a tanker conversion could not be ruled out, sources noted, adding that ConocoPhillips was interested in an aframax-size floater.

ConocoPhillips is expected to opt for a multi-year lease option for the vessel, and will also require an operations and maintenance contractor.

Production capacity for the FPSO has previously been estimated at between 30,000 and 55,000 barrels per day of oil, with a storage requirement of up to 600,000 barrels of oil.

The floater was also expected to handle just over 100 million cubic feet per day of gas.

Upstream has requested comment from ConocoPhillips about the Salam-Patawari development.

The US operator is believed to have awarded an engineering services contract to Genesis last year, with an emphasis on the subsea aspects of ConocoPhillips’ current and future activities in Malaysia, Upstream reported previously.

ConocoPhillips was awarded Block WL4-00 in 2017 when it already hosted the Salam-1 discovery.

In 2018 and 2019, oil discoveries were made at the Salam and Benum fields and, in 2022, two additional appraisal wells and one exploration well were drilled to evaluate those discoveries.

The Gagau-1 exploration well made a sub-commercial gas discovery and was expensed as a dry hole, and ConocoPhillips said all the well information would help optimise future development plans.

ConocoPhillips holds the operatorship of Block WL4-00 along with a 50% stake, with Malaysian state-giant Petronas holding the balance 50% stake.

ConocoPhillips has two more exploration permits offshore Malaysia — SK304 offshore Sarawak and SB405 offshore Sabah.

In SK304, a dry well called Mersing-1 was drilled in 2022, but ConocoPhillips said it is continuing to evaluate the potential of the permit.

In SB405, a 3D seismic survey was acquired in 2022, and processing and evaluation of the seismic data will be ongoing through 2023.

ConocoPhillips also has non-operated interests in four producing assets offshore Malaysia — the Gumusut field, the Malikai field, the Kebabangan field and the Siakap North-Petai project.

It generated net production in 2021 of 35,000 bpd of oil and 66 MMcfd of gas.

FPSO contractors in Southeast Asia are eyeing multiple FPSO projects in the region, but several projects are yet to achieve a final investment decision.

Malaysian state-owned giant Petronas is expected to lead the way with potential floater requirements in the near term for its Kelidang project offshore Brunei Darussalam.

In addition, Petronas might also seek a floater for its Limbayong and Bestari fields offshore Sabah, East Malaysia.

In addition, FPSOs are also required for UK-independent Harbour Energy’s Tuna oil and gas project offshore Indonesia and Chevron’s much-delayed and on-off Ubon gas condensate development in the Gulf of Thailand.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/conocophillips-moving-into-the-fast-lane-for-key-fpso-project-offshore-malaysia/2-1-1453215

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2023-05-18 21:10 | Report Abuse

When is the QR results out?

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2023-05-12 13:27 | Report Abuse

I believe the share option has been exercised at RM0.7453, which is rather odd. Whichever staff who exercised it (likely CEO) could've just bought 92,800 shares on the market and saved some money.

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2023-05-05 21:41 | Report Abuse

Armada Tuah 300 sold, last OSV disposed. Another chapter closed.

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2023-05-04 12:34 | Report Abuse

From that same article:

"Multiple sources told Upstream the negotiations to finalise the FPSO contract are far from settled due to issues around capital costs and access to financing."

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2023-05-04 11:58 | Report Abuse

Cameia is not a done deal man....quit spreading misinformation. TotalEnergies has been considering other possibilities for a few months now. Bumi Armada still has a chance, but no longer guaranteed to land the contract.

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2023-04-28 13:53 | Report Abuse

Likely no issue with Enquest, beginning May 2025 they will only pay 1/3rd rate so on a cost basis to Bumi Armada as the firm charter ends. As such, it will be even more attractive to keep leasing the FPSO (as long as they're producing a decent amount of oil, which does seem to be the case).

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2023-04-27 16:13 | Report Abuse

Now that all loss making parts of the company have been stripped out, we cannot increase profits any further. This year might be the best, at around rm220m/quarter...but going forward it'd only dwindle without any orderbook replenishment. Big drop in 2025 then another big drop in 2030.

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2023-04-27 16:11 | Report Abuse

For a FPSO company to have only secured one new FPSO project since 2014 and that too only via a 30% stake in an associate, is rather disappointing, no matter which way you slice and dice it.

Operationally, they've straightened all the issues with problems at Kraken. Financially, they've gotten the debt situation in order.

So now, we really need new contract awards to sustain the company.

Yes Yinson may be biting more than they can chew, they've 4 to 5 FPSOs they're working on simultaneously. No one's asking to go crazy like them.

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2023-04-27 13:29 | Report Abuse

Does anyone know what's going on with the Armada Sterling II FPSO (i.e. Armada C7)?

The following are the figures from the annual reports:

Revenue:

2022 - RM36,567m
2021 - RM87,853m
2020 - RM95,209m
2019 - RM105,397m

Why has the revenue decreased so drastically in 2022? I've tried to research what the issue is, seems like there was no charter revenue for more than half a year.

It makes sense that there is a decreasing trend in revenue due to how revenue is recognised during the contract period, but the sharp drop in 2022 (coupled with more favourable FX rate) seems amiss.