Competition warming up for large gas FPSO in Southeast Asia

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/competition-warming-up-for-large-gas-fpso-in-southeast-asia/2-1-1630052

Sterling V acceptance is not happening this month. Still 3 to 6 months away, at minimum.

What now?!?!?!?

Potentially negative news: https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/uk-north-sea-producer-waldorf-facing-liquidity-concerns/2-1-1626872

Might be good time to exit if Bumi Armada's share price spikes up in the coming week due to macro factors, namely MidEast tension and the ensuing spike in crude oil prices.

Note: This applies for those who've lost faith in the company's future potential. However, this might also be a pivotal moment as a contract award / extension or other key announcement (such as debt refinancing) might just be around the corner.

Tim quit smoking so much coke!

The Enquest's investor meet was very positive on the Kraken development, upcoming Bressay gas tieback, and future Bressay and Bently oil tie back to the Kraken production hub.

Enquest will consider purchasing the Kraken FPSO - depending on the situation at the time. But negotiations / discussions on this are ongoing.

Kraken diesel consumption to reduce by 80% with this measure. Currently, diesel spend at Kraken FPSO is around GBP30mil per annum.

Bressay gas tieback to Kraken FPSO will cost GBP60mil. Some of this will go to Bumi Armada as they will play a key role in the tieback to the FPSO.

New Indonesian FPSO tender: https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/feed-tenders-launched-for-platform-and-floater-for-indonesian-oilfield-development/2-1-1624929

Bumi Armada's experience with the Kraken heavy oil field might give them an advantage here. But it's possible that this project might not be financially sound.

Well it that case, might've been some last minute sector rotation in to O&G stocks, perhaps on a bet that crude price will continue rising over the Raya break.

Weird closing, someone bid 4+mil units at RM0.62 and above

This is a medium-sized gas FPSO that should be of strong interest to Bumi Armada. Might even drive cost synergies with their existing operations in Vietnam (i.e. TGT FPSO).

2. www.jadestone-energy.com/gas-sales-heads-of-agreement-signed-for-nam-du-u-minh-fields-offshore-vietnam/

For further reading:

1. www.jadestone-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/20240126-Vietnam-NDUM-Project-Overview-vF.pdf

FID is expected in mid to late 2025. So still over a year to go.

Keep an eye out for this: https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/singapore-player-kicks-off-bid-battle-for-prized-asian-gas-fpso/2-1-1623122

Singapore-headquartered Jadestone Energy has launched the bid process for a prized floating production, storage and offloading vessel required for its Nam Du and U Minh (NDUM) gas fields development offshore Vietnam.

The much-delayed shallow water development had been very close to sanction pre-Covid, but the operator is not expecting there to be much of a capex increase despite the passing years, Upstream has learned.

Walao last year's report card would've failed. They failed to achieve anything significant. Most important thing they achieved was stabilization of the Kraken FPSO.

In the upcoming weeks/months, we can expect some wins from the current projects being worked on.

1. Shell FSIU
2. Bluestreak FCSIU
3. Madura FLNG
4. Mystery FSRU
5. Mystery Indonesian CCS project
6. Abadi Onshore Gas Plant
7. Pipelay Contract for SC Vessels in Caspian Sea
8. Multi-year extension for TGT FPSO
9. Multi-year extension for Sterling II FPSO

For items 1 to 6, we should hope to secure 2 to 3 contracts. If we hear nothing about these by the end of the year, assume we’ve failed to secure them.

Item 7 will be a huge win as the revenue will mostly translate to net profit gains, given that the vessels are cold stacked and costing the company every month (plus depreciation).

Item 8 and 9 are expected. Not getting either will be a big loss.

We won’t see a new FPSO win for the next year or so as Bumi Armada doesn’t have any serious prospects at the moment.

Thank you chartists and technical traders for doing the dirty work.

Just heard from Pharos that the lease extension for the TGT FPSO will be signed in the middle of next month. Likely to be for 2 year period (with a further 5 year extension thereafter).

One can only hope the latest rally is being driven by an impending contract award that insiders are aware of.

Link: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/ongc-kg-basin-peak-production-may-get-delayed-to-end-2024-12554111.html

The news is not good. Again, delay after delay where the Indians are concerned. It looks like final acceptance can only be achieved once all 3 oilfields have been connected. If so, this will happen in Aug 2024 at the earliest, with potential for further delay.

By my estimate, the vessel is currently producing between 12k to 15k bopd from just one field. Another two are pending connection to the FPSO.

It would always be appreciated if you could provide the source/link for whatever you're sharing.

Not a shred of relevance to Bumi Armada mate.

Three months down and still, nothing to show for. Come on Bumi Armada!

Day by day, I lose that bit more faith in the company. Will plan an exit within the next 6 months if there's still nothing new secured by then or if there's an inexplicable run-up in the share price.

What's the outlook on the phosphates plant guys? Surely such a large-scale and economically-stimulating project like that can't just be left to go to waste?

From my research, Bluestreak CO2 was banking on the Grain Power Station in the UK to be its first client. However, Grain Power Station has chosen a different design and is no longer working with Bluestreak CO2. I am unsure at this moment if they even have any other potential client they're working with.

Bluestreak CO2 Limited ("Bluestreak")

Bluestreak is a 50% joint venture between the Company and Bumi Armada, one of the world’s largest floating infrastructure operators. The joint venture aims to provide an end-to-end solution for carbon emitters to capture, transport, sequester and store their carbon dioxide emissions in line initially with the United Kingdom’s Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy. It is anticipated that the Bluestreak joint venture will design and implement a value chain of shuttle tankers delivering to a floating carbon storage and injection unit. The complete value chain is expected to safely and reliably transport and provide buffer storage of liquid carbon dioxide. The Bluestreak joint venture is subject to the execution of definitive documentation, approvals by the respective boards of directors of the Company and Bumi Armada, applicable regularly approvals and other customary closing conditions. We disclose our proportionate share of profits and losses from equity method unconsolidated affiliates in the statement of operations and adjust the carrying amount of our equity method investments on the balance sheet accordingly.

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Taken from the Navigator Gas annual report. Still nothing substantive. I will be cautiously optimistic at best about the potential success of this joint-venture.

https://navigatorgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Navigator-Gas-2023-Form-20-F.pdf

Gabriel, what do you mean?

They are seeking a 5-year license extension for TGT (from 2026 to 2031). Prior to this, they already received a 2-year extension (from 2024 to 2026). The FPSO charter is only until 2024. At the very least, it will be extended 2 years, but more likely up to 2031. The Vietnamese authorities have already approved the Revised Field Development Plan (RFDP) till 2031, all that remains now is the approval of the license extension.

At the same time, the TGT operators have secured the drilling rig to drill 2 wells in H2 2024.

The impairment tests for TGT and CNV assume that production ceases in 2029 and 2030 respectively, assuming the licences are extended by at least three years reflecting past practice and a commercial assessment (and consistent with the reserves estimates independently audited by RISC Advisory Pty Ltd.) that it is highly probable given the economic circumstances and current discussions. The current negotiations over terms are for a longer duration than that assumed and would be expected to improve the value in use calculated.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PHAR/2023-preliminary-results/16396775

Aiyo Ninja_07 it drop or go up by 1 sen or 0.5 sen also no need ask if something happening lah. If daily change is 5 sen or more, then maybe ask such questions.

Full CIMB report if anyone has, that'd be much appreciated.

Can somebody share the CIMB Research report on Yinson please.

Thanks!

A bit overvalued, but in a future-ready and future-proof industry. These services are going to be more common by the year given the declining fertility.

Not sure why exactly

I have it confirmed that Mumbai FSRU project has been scrapped.

Every day up half a sen, soon enough we'd all be millionaires.

Shunned here too: https://eco-cdn.iqpc.com/eco/files/event_content/fpso-world-congress-2024-overview-agenda-caa-15-marydrhCNVaFqTrX44pF1jnOoPCuGisL15WFGL8URYV.pdf

Bumi Armada has been shunned as a top-tier FPSO player: https://eco-cdn.iqpc.com/eco/files/event_content/fpso-contractors-guidebook-caa-22-janDmzZ3JGR6JDxLQ0dpub99NUDJClJfTSSxGttXTmt.pdf

@ITreeinvestor, that's a foolish assumption for the current situation. Yinson trades at a premium for a very simple reason, they have massive FPSOs yet to come onstream and they have been actively diversifying into the green energy space.

Bumi Armada has no concrete plans or projects to look forward to. That's the sad reality.

Nothing new, such a long report that simply regurgitates what's already known. What an easy life!

I've been expecting for an FSRU announcement, but I've been waiting since Dec 2023 and there's been nothing.

Bumi Armada is shooting many places but no kills. The worse was the debacle with the Cameia FPSO. Truly a black mark on Bumi Armada's reputation and shows the loss of confidence of large players in the company's capabilities.

Or I should hope so at least. FPSO, FSRU, FLNG, FSO, FSIU, FCSIU...anything!

Something's gotta be brewing.

Anybody has the full report from Phillip Capital, please share.

They have confirmed it was an error. I emailed them about it.

They seem to have rectified the website issue.

Could still be a mistake by their intern of course

Like I said I monitor changes on their website almost every day. It was definitely "correct" as of yesterday.