One day push up to RM0.50

Hank you for sharing research reports!

Anyone have CIMB report to share pls?

PublicInvest TP RM0.49 (from RM0.32).

Any other reports? Pls share. Especially for CIMB and RHB!

Maybank TP RM 0.43 (from RM0.17))

https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/211893_CN__2f93bed17abd4a9885c866a37af5f2b5.pdf

Pls share other reports such as CIMB, UOB and RHB

Tomorrow Kenanga will up to RM0.40++

CIMB and RHB up to RM0.50++

Maybank up to RM0.45++

HL and MIDF up to RM0.70++

AmInvest TP is so lazy. They use net debt position as at Dec 2019!! What the hell man?!?

Also AmInvest say OMS sector got lumpy gain from vessel disposal and forex gains. But hello...the vessel disposal gain is just RM1.5mil. And the forex gains are wiped by the forex losses in the FPSO sector. Overall, forex loss is RM5mil this quarter.

All in all, they were correct to say the core net profit is RM171mil vs reported net profit of RM144mil. But they focus on tiny immaterial things and fail to update the valuation with new numbers. Very poor report.

Should see strong TP updates on Monday morning.

Have a great weekend folks!

Woah just amazed can fall back below RM0.40!!!

Where is the smart money?

For me, the way I see it, Bumi Armada risk factors have all disappeared. High debt, cancellation of 98/2 fpso, low oil price environment....all gone.

All the above is NOT factoring an improvement in the OSV sector. Especially if the subsea construction vessels get hired in 2021, that would be a game changer.

Also not factoring in the sale or redeployment of Armada Claire. Nor the possibility of getting new FPSO contracts, as the company’s financial position is now on a secure footing.

And guys, about the KG 98/2 FPSO:

"The charterer has granted an extension of timeline on project completion in view of the Indian government guidelines in respect of COVID-19 pandemic."

This project will contribute around RM100mil to RM130mil net profit per year!

This is Bumi Armada's turnaround.

Net profit is also INCLUSIVE of foreign exchange loss of RM5mil.

So including the impairment charge, core net profit for Q4 2020 was at RM174mil!!!

The net profit is INCLUSIVE if a net impairment charge of RM24.6mil.

Excluding this, core net profit to shareholders was RM168.7mil!

Debt analysis:

https://i.imgur.com/nnYe911.png

Superb results my friends. I will look in detail and share further.

Good luck everyone!

Expectations:

If core net profit of RM80mil, the stock may not move. This is a baseline result.

If core net profit of RM100mil, stock should go up slowly over time. This is a good result.

If normalise net profit of RM120mil, stock will gap up. This is a great result.

The unknown is, will there be further impairment? I think there won’t be. In fact, I predict further write back for Kraken. But if indeed there is impairment, and even if the core net profit is actually high, the stock may drop due to sentiments.

I also expect some asset disposal. But remember, core net profit is ignoring impairment, write back and disposal gains.

Other important thing is the net debt position. I expect it to be around RM7.6 bil, but if it is even lower, better!

All I can say is the market cannot telegraph a good or bad quarter. See the result that came out in August 2020. Before lunch 0.235. After lunch open at 0.27.

Hoping for more of the same today :)

Bad days men ;-(

Tomorrow out then. Not a good feeling. Haihhh...

Prediction - if out today evening or tmrw noon, is good. If out tmrw evening, is bad.

Quarter is either today or tomorrow la. Where can be next week?

Result out sooooon :)

All the best people!

No engine. Need to wait for quarter result now. Any day...

Reminder, Bumi Armada has already repaid USD100mil from Tranche 1. So just USD160mil remains

Tomorrow pop

Bad quarter results is the reason Armada not flying

Yes but they don't have a case. They will keep losing Armada Claire case because they really did breach the contract.

Those scare results bad sell now

KG 98/2 FPSO project is intact. Some delays. This is from ONGC themselves. What I heard is first oil by December 2021 (6 months total delay).

Sir, my question is on the status of the KG-98/2 basin, firstly, on the gas production and also on oil production. There are some media reports suggesting that the FPSO contractors has declared force majeure. So what kind of delays are we expecting out of that?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subhash Kumar, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited - Director of Finance & Director [3]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So a couple of comments. One is that the project is going on well. COVID has actually created quite a few disruptions. And as a consequence of which, there was difficulty. So more than actually Indian supply chain, what got affected was the international supply chain. Consequently, there were difficulties for suppliers of all major pieces of -- there were 5 major subcontracts, subprojects in the overall KG-98/2. FPSO was also one of them. But the situation is well under control. The production from KG-98/2 Cluster 2 already started. It's relatively insignificant production today at around 320,000 cubic meters of gas today. But from May onwards, we believe that it will ramp up to 2.5 million to 3 million cubic meters per day. So from May onwards, actually, it will be a slow build -- ramp up of capacity both on gas and oil front. So -- and as far as specifically you said about FPSO, there were news. But at the end of the day, all contractors are working to beat their kind of time lines. So that progress is happening at the work front. And some of the disruption in international supply chain are also the reason why in the previous conference call and today -- I'm not kind of specifically committing to specific dates on which the operations or adjusted levels of production will be achieved. But what I said about May '21 is more than likely to happen.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-ongc-ns-earnings-043000427.html?_guc_consent_skip=1613898131

Link for above: https://www.eni.com/en-IT/media/press-release/2019/06/eni-announces-the-fifth-light-oil-discovery-in-block-1506-offshore-angola.html

"Due to its proximity to East Hub’s facilities and subsea network, which are at about 10km away, production from Agidigbo can be fast-tracked, thus extending the Armada Olombendo FPSO production plateau."

I did some research and managed to find out that the production plateau in the East Hub Block 15/06 (FPSO Olombendo) was extended following the discovery of additional oil on-site.

This is old but I never saw this in any analyst report. This means Olombendo's long-term viability is intact, with potential for extensions beyond even the original contract terms (i.e. 12 years firm and 8 years optional). The field could potentially continue operating until 2040, if not beyond that.

Moment of truth this week...count me excited! :)

RM 0.50 by 26 Feb 2021 :)

Steady people

Analysts do not price in extension for Armada Sterling II and Armada TGT. Also do not price in writeback and long-term viability of Armada Kraken.

So a lot to gain!

Bumi Armada FPSO Status Review:

Armada Sterling I - Contract was extended till 2030 last year (beyond original optional extension period). 5 year optional extension. Very good for long term.

Armada Sterling II - Firm charter ends in 2023. Production is still strong. Very high chances of firm charter period extended beyond original optional extension period. Very good for long term.

Armada Sterling III - First oil and gas achieved in 2017. Strong uptime and production. Long term viability unknown (can't find information on this).

Armada Kraken - Troubled startup. A lot of write down. But production has stabilised. Uptime is now >99%, efficiency at ~88%. Original contract till 2026, 17 annual extensions thereafter. Field is primed for 20 to 25 years production. Lots more wells to be drilled. Very good for long term as chances are there will be extension for a fixed period in 2026.

Armada Olombendo - Darling star of Bumi Armada as it contributes around 1/3rd of Bumi Armada's entire revenues! Very little known issues. Uptime > 99%. Firm charter till 2029, 8 annual extension thereafter. Long term viability unknown (can't find information on this).

Armada TGT - Contract extended till 2024. However TGT field has received approval for full field development till 2029! Additional wells to be drilled in Q4 2021. Very good long term prospects!

Armada Sterling V - Under construction and expected first oil in December 2021!

Armada Claire - No takers. I feel like Bumi Armada should write down the entire carrying amount and sell this for scrap. There aren't very many redeployment options for this FPSO. Estimated cost of RM50mil a year, doing NOTHING! However, IFFFF there is a contract secured, it is effectively free money for Bumi Armada!

I guarantee quarterly results is NOT out today or tmrw la guys

500 is little la...buy 3500 lots. I did back in October at 22.5

Quarter is only out next week la, either Thursday or Friday

Gorengs soon :D

Also, long term viability of TGT field in Vietnam is good. They have got 2 year extension to 2026, then applying for another 3 years to 2029. But the FPSO contract is only until 2024.

Also, they tender for Limbayong with MTC and Shapoorji. A potential win.

Good quarter expected!

Patience my fellow men!

A green day of epic proportions shall be upon us by months end!

Quarter core net profit >RM100mil and oil sustained at >USD60, and this should easily be trading at >RM0.50 :)