Jokers you all. Do you see the amount and frequency bought vs his total shareholding and director salary? Think a bit more critically lah.

@shortinvestor, Tambun has been saying its unbilled sales can last for 2 years for donkey years. Go read their Q reports from 2014-2015 when unbilled sales was hundreds of millions of ringgit.

@cwkor, from your link:

"“As long as unbilled sales visibility remains close to one year in general and also assuming that developers can maintain flattish sales over the next couple of years, it would mean steady earnings trajectory over the next few years."

Tambun unbilled sales does not even offer visibility for 1.5 quarters. It is indeed worrying.

RHB cuts TP from RM1.35 to RM1.10.

http://rhb.ap.bdvision.ipreo.com/NSightWeb_v2.00/Handlers/Document.ashx?i=9ada1678a11e42f5890b54ea3f1fc342

So you are saying they will be able to sustain their business? I think RM1.02 is a decent buy in point to get one foot in, but at the same time the property situation is extremely weak all over the country.

Almost 20x net gain over 5 yrs. Congrats to those who held all the way!

@DualShock, I have already spoken about the reason for the slow model update. Look at my posts from before.

At these prices and valuation...close eye and buy lah. Sure double, possibly 4x, maybe even 6x upwards in a 5 year period. Tan Chong isn't going anywhere.

Are you guys crazy or what? The stock market is ALWAYS forward looking. Go and see the drop in unbilled sales. Latest figure is a measly RM95mil! There will be minimal revenue in upcoming quarters and profits will crash as the unbilled sales keep dwindling.

Tambun is a very good long-term prospect. But just based on this Q result I will not get excited. Rather the unbilled sales is at an ALL TIME low and not being replenished. Revenue is basically coming from here alone.

Just as proof, and without making any adjustments to earnings to take into account one-off expenditure (for corporate exercise and write down bad receivables) nor taking into account interest savings since the loans will get pared down.

EV: 63.78 + 23.47 - 3.43 - 21.05 = 62.77
EBIT: 6.45 + 2.08 +1.40 = 9.93
EV/EBIT = 6.32

EBIT (adjusted for corporate exercise expense only): 9.93 + 0.79 = 10.72
EV/EBIT (adjusted) = 5.86

Beyond this you can adjust the EBIT to take into account the write down on receivables and the savings on interest expense of RM0.65mil per the Abridged Prospectus. Not to mention the balance sheet will be even better come Thursday.

That's just the basic stuff. There's so much more info to be gleaned about CWG (both quantitative and qualitative).

Jon you disappoint me man. Do your calculations again. Your EV/EBIT is off cause you are not taking into account the additional RM22mil cash raised from the rights issue (this will result in lower EV hence lower EV/EBIT).

Also, if you bother to read the financial statements, there were one off expenses amounting to RM1.1mil in FY2017.

That's just the basic stuff you seemed to have missed. Not to mention interest savings of RM0.65mil p.a. going forward since the loans will be pared down.

The directors buying is what made me go heavily into CWG. However, it was not what led me here in the first place. What led me here was fundamental research. A stock that is trading at 0.8X P/BV with ROE at 12%, and an imminent earnings explosion being highly likely.

You should go and take a look at Peter Lynch's criteria of a "perfect stock". CWG ticks many of the boxes.

I'm confident and it's not because I am blindly following the directors. I already took a big stake during the rights issue (when it was unknown how exactly all the directors would play it). I then bought a smaller stake last week as I had cash to spare.

We'll see soon enough whether my investment thesis was flawed or otherwise.

When is result due? Any idea?

Just sell lah for now. Did you read the report about unsold residential units at 130k vs 10 year average of 72k? We are not at the bottom. More pain to come. There might have to be a severe correction in the property market.

Better sell and run for now. Vietnam is indefinitely delayed, while the fabric mill will now only launch in H1 2018. Lucky I sold last week at 1.14.

Can revisit later on when the price weakens to RM0.80-RM0.90 and when the risk-reward profile is more attractive.

You guys need to understand what kind of expectations are built into stock prices.

To me, the latest Q results are very suspicious. Seems like they have planned this "surprise" beat in earnings across all their divisions. Look at Plantations and Property. Seems like they just want to drum up prices ahead of the listing of the spin-offs in 2 weeks time.

Buyers beware is all I can say. Exercise caution!

@dunspace, Latitud is actually leveraged on the FX. This is because every 1% increase/decrease in MYR will result in some 6-7% loss/gain in the bottomline. So it's a very leveraged play, and best to stay away if you aren't sure about how to structure this "bet". Mind you, the MYR slid badly, it's hard to imagine things getting worse from here on out. Heck, YTD we have already recovered.

Still if MYR stays at RM4.00-RM4.30 Latitud will be a good buy. But if we go back to under RM4 then Latitud might face issues. I feel more comfortable with a larger margin of safety buying a net importer rather (such as Tan Chong, UMW etc).

I'm definitely interested if warrants can go to ~12 sen region.

@Val-Elta, good analysis.

Latitude offers very good value at these levels (@ ~0.75X P/BV while earning ROE >10%). Indeed for those who cannot find good opportunities in the market, this might be a good buy. It would be the best wooden furniture company stock at least from a value proposition.

I personally can find better opportunities in the market (surer bet + better payoff profile), though Latitude is definitely on my "strong" watchlist.

However, be very mindful that Latitude is subject to FX movement highly. If the Ringgit continues strengthening expect profitability to decline.

Results should be out on 23/11/17.

Topped up today @0.505. Now CWG on a cost basis makes up 53% of my portfolio.

If Q1 results disappoint I will take the opportunity to top up further in December 2017/January 2018.

Party has ended...yay!

PS: If you're in for the long-haul, no matter what, stay your course. If it drops back below RM0.80 then sell your house and your kidney and go all-in!

Exited today @1.14. I still have faith in this being a quality long-term stock however I wanted to put my capital to better use in something I am both more certain about, and where the potential payoff is higher.

Still KIV Prolexus though. If the catalysts get stronger and the price weakens further, I might come back in. Still believe this can double/triple within 5 years.

Good luck to everyone else who still remains. Cheers!

I would still hold out for a better offer. No hurry. Patience. However, if you are itching to buy now...start buying at RM1.02 if you must (@ 0.8X P/BV)...on two very key conditions:

1) You average down every 10-15% drop in price
2) You are able to hold for the very long term (i.e. 5+ years)

I guarantee close eyes this stock will net you double the returns in five years time (price gains + dividends). Stay the course. Do not waver.

@cy909, I always include a link to my source.

-------------

Good news at Erin (Armada Perdana).

http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/erin-energy-narrows-loss-boosts-revenues/

Nothing out of the ordinary. No special damage. Minor losses sure got lah, like lower productivity for a few days. Not an issue though.

Wait lah, no hurry! I think long term good propspect, short term shaky.

SC Shariah compliant securities list will probably be out around 23-24 Nov 2017. If you are a betting person and are confident in a re-inclusion, might be prudent to put some money to work.

So guys, if you look, over the past week or so I have shared three active FPSO bids that have reached the tender stage.

1) Greater Pecan - Four in race
2) Eni ZabaZaba - Only two in race
3) ONGC 98/2 - Three in race

Start hedging your bets. Armada should land at least one of these contracts, winners should be known for them by Q2/Q3 2018.

Things are looking up!

http://www.upstreamonline.com/hardcopy/1378115/three-in-frame-for-ongc-fpso-job

Three leading international floating production, storage and offloading vessel providers are preparing to battle it out for a lucrative contract to provide Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) with a large floating production, storage and offloading vessel for its KG-DWN-98/2 deep-water project off the east coast of India.

Japan’s Modec International, SBM Offshore of the Netherlands and a grouping of Malaysia’s Bumi Armada with India’s Shapoorji Pallonji Group are the trio that have submitted pre-qualification documents to the Indian operator, industry sources said.

They are set to compete for a contract from ONGC that covers the provision of an FPSO that is capable of handling 90,000 barrels per day of oil and 135 million cubic feet per day of gas. The vessel should also have water injection capacity of 58,800 bpd of water, one source added.

The KG-DWN-98/2 floater is expected to have a storage capacity of 1.3 million barrels of oil and will be based on a very large crude carrier hull.

ONGC is expected to conclude the pre-qualification process within three to four weeks, after which the shortlisted trio are expected to be issued with formal tenders by the state-owned giant, sources said.

One industry source claimed that it could take between four to six months for FPSO contractors to submit technical and commercial offers after the tenders are issued, because the submission will require a significant amount of initial bid engineering.

“ONGC has just done the pre-front end engineering and design for the FPSO. A lot of work needs to be done during the FEED, which might take up to six months,” he said.

Another project watcher suggested that ONGC is expected to award the FPSO contract as early as the middle of 2018, although other observers felt that might be optimistic.

Malaysian players Yinson, MISC and M3nergy were also believed to have been initially interested in the project, but are not thought to have submitted pre-qualification documents, said sources.

ONGC is offering a fixed lease term of nine years for the FPSO, with an option to extend that by six years.

Although it is early days in terms of pricing, one industry source said he thought the FPSO contract value could be upwards of $1 billion.

The floater project will involve some complications, with the mooring system likely to be technically challenging because the vessel will be operating in harsh, monsoon-prone conditions in more than 400 metres of water. As a result, the floater will have to withstand strong winds and waves at its location, sources said. The operator is targeting an FPSO with a design life of at least 20 years, and is thought to be in the market for either a conversion or relocation of an existing vessel.

First gas from KG-DWN-98/2’s Cluster-2 development was initially targeted for June 2019, with oil planned to flow in 2020.

However, industry sources suggested that may be optimistic and oil production from the deep-water asset could be delayed by a year or more, with gas production also unlikely to flow as soon as that.

ONGC plans to spend more than $5 billion on developing KG-DWN-98/2’s Cluster-2 region, and is expected to later take on an additional $1-billion-plus development plan for the block’s Cluster-1 play.

If in KL I sure go. Penang...no need lah. This one die die will be a multi bagger already. Just buy buy buy!

http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/bumi-armadas-fpso-in-worlds-first-molten-sulfur-offload/

Not likely to be privatized, since Tan Chong does have major debt. Even then the credit rating is strong, since Tan Chong is publicly listed. If it is wanted to be taken private, the banks won't be too happy. Also Tan Chong's ownership is fragmented and no longer concentrated in a single person's hands (the family got many feuds, so hard to combine and get a controlling stake). Unlike Astro, which was mainly owned by one man and wasn't swimming in debt so relatively easy to take private then re-IPO when the market recovers.

In short, almost zero chance of being taken private or delisted. We are at the very bottom, if not darn near to it (~10% from the bottom). I.e. I see the absolute bottom being at ~RM1.42. Good buy!

Man man lah. No hurry one. It's a good company for the long-term but the short-term is very, very challenging. Can start buying now if you want but make sure to average down every 10% drop and DO NOT SELL OFF no matter what!

I personally wait a while more before I get in. See if can get below one Ringgit or not.

Ignore the ESPESP guy above lah. Real top joker that fellow.

@RJ87 you have no idea what you're talking about dude.

Yes, I hold my position for now. Won't add until it goes lower to ~RM1.07, and even then it depends on various factors. However it is a moderate conviction buy. There are other high conviction buys for me out there. Like Jon says above, I like other companies as well. Need a bit more clarity on the startup of the new factories I reckon before I double down.

I only buy once at 1.16

No pity. Just patience!

@Fear, always stick to a plan. Don't saja saja accumulate. Better you buy with targets. Say, RM1.20 then top up again every 5% or 10% fall. Like that market fluctuations do not bother you much.

As for me, I will wait for a while more, and maybe top up if it falls to the RM1.07 region. The reason is I see better/clearer prospects elsewhere. Prolexus is now the smallest company in my 5 stock portfolio at just 5.5% of my holdings.

Sold all at RM1.71. Good luck to the rest. Bought at RM1.29 in May. Dividend of RM0.041. I would say a decent haul for ~6 mths holding period.

Problem with Ikhmas is they are only getting property development jobs, which have lower margins than public infrastructure works such as elevated highway/MRT/LRT etc.

For now Armada will ride the ups and downs of crude oil prices. If oil prices open flat, or even higher tomorrow, expect Armada to trend higher.

If you think crude oil is moving higher for good, then might as well top up now. We're looking at a multi-bagger over the 3-5 years to come!

Milan-based major Eni is homing in on its preferred bidder to supply a 150,000 barrels-per-day floating production, storage and offloading vessel for its controversial deep-water ZabaZaba project in OPL 245 off Nigeria.

Industry sources said the contest is now a two-horse race between Bluewater Offshore of the Netherlands and Kuala Lumpur-based Bumi Armada, with Oslo-listed BW Offshore thought to be off the pace.

Bluewater and Bumi Armada are in clarification talks with Eni as the project heads towards a potential final investment decision next year.

Multiple project watchers have suggested to Upstream that Bluewater — which is bidding together with Saipem — is in a strong position, but cautioned it is too early to take a definitive view.

“What we are hearing is that they (Bluewater) are frontrunner,” said one observer. However, another source warned that “there is still a long way to go with meetings under way”.

The FPSO would be a converted VLCC that, in addition to oil, will handle 200 million cubic feet per day of gas, 240,000 bpd of injected water and store 1.7 million barrels.

Once Eni decides on its preferred bidder, it will have to secure partner approval from Shell ahead of taking a final investment decision.

Most recently, a final investment decision was scheduled for the second quarter of this year but Antonio Vella, head of Eni’s upstream business, told analysts at the company’s third-quarter results briefing this week that project sanction will be further delayed.

“We have received most of the offers for the final investment decision, but we are not quite sure that it will be done this year. It will most probably be done next year,” Vella said.

This suggests first oil will likely now flow in mid-2021 as opposed to late 2020 which was Eni’s original plan assuming a final investment decision was taken in the second quarter of 2017.

The project schedule continues to be adversely affected by local content issues, low oil prices, a delay in opening commercial bids and — perhaps most importantly of all — OPL 245 being mired in a long-running corruption scandal.

Simbi Wabote, executive secretary of the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, said recently that ZabaZaba’s bidders “have shown definite commitment” to more than 50% of the FPSO modules being fabricated in Nigeria, while the topsides will also be integrated locally.

However, questions have been raised about whether the project’s local content issue has been completely resolved.

“Local content is very high,” said one source, suggesting Eni “may yet come back to the FPSO players with a lower requirement and ask for a fresh commercial bid".

“They have not reduced the local content requirement so far,” he said, adding that “I don’t know how the project can be viable with all the local content needed”.

A large chunk of the FPSO work will need to be carried out in Nigeria, with Lagos-based Ladol in prime position to handle much of that.

Lurking ominously in the background are ongoing investigations into how Eni and its partner Shell actually gained control of OPL 245 in 2011 for $1.1 billion.

Prosecutors in Italy, Nigeria, the Netherlands and the UK are carrying out probes and, this week, Reuters reported that a judge in Italy is set to decide on 20 December whether to send Eni and Shell to trial over alleged corruption related to the deal.

Milan’s public prosecutor has asked for the two companies plus past and present managers — including Eni’s chief executive Claudio Descalzi — to be indicted in the OPL 245 case, and last month requested the trial of ex-Shell upstream boss Malcolm Brinded and three other men.

Some contractors, despite spending significant time and resources on bidding for the ZabaZaba work, believe the project will not proceed until these legal issues have been sorted out once and for all, and expect further delays to the final investment decision.

“I am sceptical that it’s going to happen fast because of this issue over the block,” said one project watcher. “That must be solved before a final investment decision can be made.”

Another Nigeria watcher was more downbeat: “No-one has confidence that this thing has got legs.”

Eni, meanwhile, is also evaluating what are believed to be non-integrated bids for ZabaZaba’s subsea hardware.

Saipem, TechnipFMC and Subsea 7 are all thought to be in the running for the flowline, riser and gas export line order, with TechnipFMC and Baker Hughes among those players thought to be targeting the subsea production system contract.

The umbilicals will be provided under a separate package.

Rowie what is the source of the above? I’d like to read it.

Victor, calm down.

1) Grab and Tan Chong are wholly unrelated. This has been said many times. Don't dream of anything happening.

2) Nissan Leaf is still too expensive. Do not expect any appreciable contribution from there.

However, look at this: https://paultan.org/2017/10/27/spied-2018-nissan-serena-seen-testing-in-malaysia/

Tan Chong needs to launch new models for Serena, X-Trail, Teana, Almera and Livina. This is where the high level impact will come from!

Prudent what you're saying makes no sense. Warrants will always have a premium due to their potentially great fat tail payoffs. I mean look at things like HeveaW and PmetalW. Those things went up 30-40x from a few years ago despite the built in premium. If Ajiya can progress well and translate to profitability and become a one billion dollar company in 4 years, they warrants could get 20x++ returns as well from current levels.

Warrant price is totally irrelevant to the share price. If anything the warrant pricing is less efficient.

Got more today @1.61. So I bought at 1.82, then 1.70, then 1.61. Avg price ~1.69.

Will keep topping up if it drops to the low 1.50s.

Enjoy the ride, hopefully this leads us to RM0.80 and then on to RM0.90.

Don't worry about the IBs lah, they know how to deal with things and they cannot do stupid/silly/suicidal things.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/petronas-technipfmc-form-technological-collaboration

Both Petronas (via MISC) and TechnipFMC are shareholders in MMHE, owning together 75% of the company's shares.