Very bad result but the positives are that there are no impairments. My worry is if they can't find enough marine business for their Dry Dock 1 (reserved to MISC) and Dry Dock 2...then why the flying F are they "wasting" RM500mil constructing a Dry Dock 3???

I think the heavy engineering has bottomed out, but really the marine business (which was previously dependable) is worrying me. Revenue of <RM50mil for Q4 from this segment is the LOWEST EVER! And this despite O&G activities recovering somewhat in 2018.

@Hafid, the idea is that JCBNEXT's investments are available for purchase at a steep discount if you invest via JCBNEXT. The problem of course is if the Director's do not have a proper execution or willpower, you will be left holding a useless bag. For example, Innity is a shitty stock now, so will be hard for this company to sell their stake in Innity.

Similar to the previous quarter, I've done some projections and would just like to share them here, just to see how things actually turn out if nothing else.

1) Worst case scenario: RM25 to 28 mil
2) Disappointing scenario: RM28 to 32 mil
3) Expected revenue (conservative): RM32 to 45 mil
4) Expected revenue (high case): RM45 to 50 mil
5) Strong revenue beat (go all in!): RM50mil ++

Most likely scenario is for the revenue to be somewhere between RM32mil and RM45mil based on my estimate.

As for the net profit margins, I anticipate improvement in this area, with the net profit margin something in the region of 8% to 20%, with the most likely net margin to be at between 10% to 15% (excluding any one-off items).

So all things said I expect a net profit of somewhere between RM3.2mil to RM4.5mil (assuming net margins at 10%). But at the same time I would not be surprised there is a very strong earnings beat and we get to > RM5mil, either due to strong revenue, or high net profit margins, or both!

Still a couple of weeks to the Q2 19 report but I’m quite excited. Look at revenue...important for it to grow. If revenue is below RM28mil I take it as a sign expansion plans have failed. Same with inventories...if they are still at RM60mil region with no marked improvement in revenue, this will mean higher holding costs and lower inventory turnover, which will hurt profitability moving forward.

All the best guys!

What means?

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6031637

If there is one major O&G company to go under or delisted, it will be Bumi Armada. Velesto/UMWOG has completed their restructuring. Sapura will complete its restructuring and has solid backing of the government via GLCs. Bumi Armada though doesn't have a good relationship with GLCs...many of its loans are from foreign countries, most of its projects are outside Malaysia....Ananda needs to delist this.

Really, really good valuation to buy in at. I'm holding 737 lots in total. It may not seem like much but it's substantial for me!

I think MMHE will benefit from the following in 2019:

1) One major contract award from Petronas - likely Kasawari CPP.
2) Multiple small contracts from Petronas and other local players.
3) One mid-size win from a foreign country (likely a project in Australia).
4) One mid-size win from Saudi Aramco via the LTA.
5) Successful diversification into offshore wind turbine fabrication.
6) Write-back of certain impairments/bad debts made in 2018.
7) Early completion of the Bokor project - means the yard can undertake bigger projects sooner.
8) Near completion of the Dry Dock 3, which should increase revenues by ~RM300-400mil in the first full financial year of operations.

Valuations are super undemanding. There's a net cash position of some RM500mil and the market cap is a mere RM800mil. I'd be worried that MMHE might be a privatisation target for MISC/Petronas. But what would be really interesting is if MMHE can make an acquisition of their own. The market needs some excitement to re-rate the stock. Till that happens, buy...buy...and buy more of this company. Such a clean balance sheet for such a capital heavy industry....imagine the leverage impact when business returns!

I have no doubt that MMHE will be a star company in 2019....2019 will be our year!

17.5...no news right? Very odd. Brave people may profit off this...

Revenue is a disappointment at RM30mil. But the net profit is decent at RM2.5mil. Will look in-dept in the Q1 2019 report later and share my thoughts. Not really that bad on the whole by the looks of it, but I was expecting better...

Will close >0.2 or <0.185

But still it's a fundamentally strong company. I wouldn't necessarily buy just yet (not confident that the property market has bottomed out), but if you've been a holder I'd just keep holding. The entire cash position of the company can settle every liability. The value of the land on the books is some 3-4x lower than the actual current market value of the land.

The company has very lean operations and the dividend given out is pretty good over the years.

Walao 0.18...

Limit down is after 30 sen not 30%

Wow what's happened here. So thankful I sold everything at RM0.75 last year (I bought at RM0.63 in early 2017).

Price seems too low though, I've not done the maths but I think can be a good entry point and can get strong returns in the medium term.

You have to believe the impairtments are over...otherwise if no, this is a goner.

Ok results should be out today or tomorrow! Good luck to all CWG investors. Hope we get a good result! :)

Finally some sustainable turnaround. Sadly I already sold out some time back. May recover to ~RM1.80 - RM2.00 levels.

53% of revenue generated from China in FY18. Doesn't look good at all given the trade war implications. I will stay away for now. Probably the warrants will expire worthless so don't even think about that. But the stock might see value emerging if it goes closer to RM0.10. Put on my watchlist for now, see how things develop.

Suddenly this seems to have become an overvalued company (P/E 18!). Oh how to mighty have fallen. Want to by also am scare. I sell last year, keep waiting when to buy. Plus very obvious management has cheated us on the mushrooms....RM10mil revenue per year...pui!

I mean if Hevea is gonna be earning just 7 figure net profit per quarter going forward then trust me the true value of the stock is closer to RM0.40 than RM0.80!

I doesn’t understand the management explanation for the reduced performance. They say revenue fall due to the weak Malaysian ringgit. Hello, I thought Hevea 90% of earnings were in USD. Is management making stupid stories or what? Who is lying?

Please someone clear this up for me!

I've done some projections and would just like to share them here, just to see how things actually turn out if nothing else.

1) Worst case scenario: RM25 to 30 mil
2) Disappointing scenario: RM30 to 35 mil
3) Expected revenue (conservative): RM35 to 42 mil
4) Expected revenue (high case): RM42 to 50 mil
5) Strong revenue beat (go all in!): RM50mil ++

Most likely scenario is for the revenue to be somewhere between RM30mil and RM45mil based on my estimate.

As for the net profit margins, I anticipate something in the region of 7% to 15%, with the most likely net margin to be at between 8% to 12% (excluding any one-off items).

So all things said I expect a net profit of somewhere between RM2.4mil to RM3.6mil (assuming net margins at 8%). But at the same time I would not be surprised there is a very strong earnings beat and we get to > RM5mil!

Exciting times, let's hope the Q report is out today evening!

I’m positive for the upcoming results for two main reasons. One is the consistently depreciating Ringgit over the past 6 months, which should improve margins. The second is the extremely large increase in inventory, which should point to a notable increase in sales. In the annual report they mention as much. Also, in the annual report if you look at the goods in transit numbers, it’s much higher than ever before. So lots of reasons to be excited and to expect increases in both top line and bottom line.

I’ve been buying more of CWG slowly over the past few months. Got a good feeling we’ll starting moving up soon. But for this to happen there must be solid core earnings. I’m thinking something above RM3mil.

Hi there, still here! Been buying 50-100 lots every month these past few months. Got a feeling Q1 2019 should be good! Results should be out any day now.

It is within the depths of despairity that hope is born anew. - nikicheong

How should I know? Retirement fund's analysts may not think it's worth a buy at the current price levels. Heck after prolonged underperformance and after losing >90% of market value over the past 7 years, I am sure the retirement funds had to sell due to their investment policy, and will be hard for them to buy lest there is a catalyst. As private investors, we do not have such constraints placed to us. We do not need to convince an investment committee of the merits of just buying and holding MMHE for the long term.

When (and not if) MMHE gets their next major contract (most likely K5 MOPU from Petronas by end of October, or could also being something from Saudi Aramco in their partnership with TechnipFMC)...trust me MMHE will rise RM0.20-RM0.30 easily in a single day. At the moment given nothing is happening I do not fault the retirement funds for waiting it out.

That's good to know. I'm also an adherent of value investing. My biggest worry with PCCS is that it could turn out to be a value trap. Look at the way they have been buying and selling, forming and closing subsidiary companies. I find it very fishy.

But, there are some catalysts that point to the fact that PCCS may no longer be a value trap. One is the fact they're paying dividends out to shareholders (hopefully it is not one-off!). Second is that management has committed tens of millions of Ringgit of their personal money into the company via the rights issue.

Again, this doesn't mean PCCS will transform overnight. And you're absolutely right to have a time horizon of > 2 years. I'm a bit sad cause PCCS is actually the type of company I'd invest in right now but my money is already tied in other investments and I also have lots of faith in those investments so PCCS stays on the sidelines for me for now. But it's on my radar and I hope to own it someday if it still offers good value proposition.

All the best and hope you get the returns you're looking for over the years to come!

lmao government contract is different from private contract. Petronas Carigali has always done open tenders for their offshore platforms though....MISC on the other hand do not need to do open tenders for their FPSO/FSO/FSU/LNG conversion works as MMHE is a direct subsidiary of theirs.

There is no such thing as industry PE. It depends on so many things. Future growth prospects, balance sheet health, leverage etc.

And how do you arrive at normalized net profits of rm100mil per Q? That’s just silly. Don’t forget krakens BBC rates are gonna be reduced, so say bye bye to rm100mil per Q profits.

Based on Q1 results, the following are observed:

1) Drop in revenue for the Apparels segment, which accounts for nearly 90% of PCCS's business. Growth in revenue from Labeling and Others business but they're still only a small portion of the overall business volume.

2) Prospects don't look too good for the Apparels segment in the near term. This is what management says about it: "The Board is sounding a cautious note about the impact of global trade tensions, the China and Cambodia apparels are expected to shrink due to weaker domestic and global demand in the next quarter, while remaining positive about the long-term outlook of the business."

I have PCCS on my radar but will probably wait until it goes to RM0.20 levels before I buy in. Even now, it's a good price to buy in actually, but make sure you have a long-term orientation and are prepared to sell at a loss should the business fundamentals actually deteriorate.

Kasinathan I think you're too bullish on this stock. Why should the NPT be 8-9mil p.a? Why now all of a sudden? In the past PCCS had a market cap <RM15mil when revenue was at RM400mil. Price to revenue was below 0.05x. It means the market thought of PCCS as a terrible company.

If even NPT was 8-9mil p.a. in your best case scenario, and if it were really valued at 10x P/E (which is entirely arbitrary), then the market cap ought to be RM85mil. Currently market cap is 50mil on the dot. So the fair value per share based on your flawed assumptions are RM0.408/share, which is far from the warrant exercise price of RM0.60.

"Hi Nikicheong, they will strengthen their Balance sheet as mentioned"

LMAO if only life were so simple. Much you have to learn still, young padawan.

Look guys the writing is on the wall. Let's assume Kraken really get accepted in 2 weeks (how come only CIMB know about this...?)...them what? Bunk Armada has nothing else going for it. OSV down in the dumps, and with rhis balance sheet they CANNOT take on new projects. The $1.5bil mtn program is useless at this level of leverage and will kill the company forever if they use it. It's all negative momentum. Lower charter rates from Kraken, lower OSV utilization, rights issue coming sooner rather than later.

Sell while you still can. Swallow your pride for now. Come back when the balance sheet is leaner.

Actual NPT stripping out the gain on property is less than RM2mil. Which is decent but not amaZing.

Maybank also reduce by almost half. 1.02 to 55 cents.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bumi-armada-downgraded-underweight-jpmorgan

JPMorgan has cut the TP by half to 40 sen. Run you people!

Guys, some of you may remember me. I was very active on this Armada forum last year when I held Armada, but I eventually sold it at 0.75 cents in October (I bought at the beginning of the year at 63 cents).

This issue with Kraken was what caused me to sell Armada. Remember, it was due to complete final certification LAST YEAR JUNE! Now it's 1 yr 2 mths delay, with final certification no where in sight.

This new AA2 agreement with Enquest means that Armada will be getting a lower BBC (bareboat charter) rate for Kraken, possibly due to production/uptime issue. Kraken is a very complex FPSO, and given that Bumi Armada has indeed agree to pay damages to Enquest, it shows that the fault here lies with Bumi Armada side rather than with Enquest.

Now the debt situation is precocious. Future cashflows assumptions must be reduced, and if before there was a small chance of Armada getting a new FPSO contract without issuing new shares, now there is zero chance of that happening. A rights issue is coming, sooner rather than later. I would recommend to continue selling if you have the opportunity to 45 cents levels, maybe even as low as 35 cents levels if the rights issue is very dilutive. And remember, the rights issue will happen without any new contract wins, so there will be lots of risks there.

Stupid management at Armada and Sapura ruining pretty decent companies otherwise. MMHE is another company with stupid management, but thankfully they are I believe one of the only beaten-down oil & gas players locally with an extremely clean balance sheet.

Vessel amount impairment is only for two vessels. Kraken and Gema

Still further uncertainty in Kraken. Run for the hills

Fxxx Armada. This is headed to a rights issue. No way can get new contracts with this balance sheet. Run!

Hmm bad quarter. Seems very much reduced sales for Malaysia. However this was uschioned by significantly higher sales to Europe though. Inventories have ballooned even further and this has been done by taking on even more debt. Either management is totally incompetent or they've got something great coming up. I hold for one more quarter.

Lol I wonder why management like to talk about share price. Show the earnings lah first. Simply simply buy and sell subsidiaries every single year. They need to get their costing under control. There must be a catalyst for share price to move forward...usually is earnings. Fingers crossed Trump's craziness with the tariffs on Chinese goods will not impact PCCS.

I want to like the company, but I feel this could be a value trap. For over 10 years, PCCS was valued at under 0.1X Price/Sales. Heck before rights issue it was at under 0.05X Price/Sales. To me this is unbelievable as I cannot find other companies with a poor revenue-based value. Very obvious management don't care about minority shareholders and have a jolly good time of their own.

Good to know management is positive on prospects. I mean that should be a given especially since they pump in huge amonts of mmoney via rights issue.

Still, need to wait until there is actual turnaround. There are so many subsidiaries in PCCS. Need to streamline. But instead they go open more.

A report should be out later as AGM is today.

This Q might have "good" results, but remember it will include one-off proceeds from disposal of the land. Net income arising from the disposal should be anywhere between RM4mil and RM8mil.

stupid fella parkson will not ask for a rights call lah. use your two cents brain.

Which joker releases such critical information during Friday lunchtime when Muslims go to pray? So stupid!?!?? Why not just after hours, so people can go home, think and do a proper analysis of the impact of the rights issue?

Actually RIghts Issue is a real, real possibility with Bumi Armada. I hate rights issues man. But if they do issue a rights issue, I have already done my homework and depending on the quantum if Bumi Armada's share price falls below a certain level I will buy heavily. For Sapura Energy I didn't do homework so I couldn't react.

Very suspicious price run up like that before Q result out. Sure no one who prepare the finance report and board papers decide to "play play" ah?

@Luke, not so simple. First, why PE 15? Is this a "growth" stock? Second, did you look at the debt? Now, Armada may be worth RM1.20 or even RM1.50...but the debt burden is huge and many, many project delays. Scary thing to undertake new project likely need to have a rights issue (and is a major risk - look at the issues/delays faced by Olombendo and Kraken!). Hence big players all wait at the side.

Still, Armada @0.695 is a decent buy and has good risk-reward proposition. Sadly I'm already fully invested for now.

Nice company but likely profits will face pressure (especially hit from startup ops in Cambodia). The group has one customer which contributes >RM200mil in revenue (>40%!!!). I wonder who's that...PUMA, Adidas or someone else?

I'll likely buy in the future if/when there's good volume closer to RM0.20.

It will get darker before it gets better, for the financial performance. But for the share price, hard toto say. Depends on buy and sell supply and on overall market. But still, this price is good enough for a longer termperiod holding, especially given the dividend yields.