if take simple stupid analogy to oil n gas industry...oil max price around usd140 expected crash price usd40 so palm oil palm oil crash price would be 40/140 X 4900 = rm1400 per ton n now around rm2200 per ton....for fgv share crash price rm2.20/rm2200 X rm1400 = rm1.40....mmm not bad and may be if consider also all the management and all the jokers could go down rm1.20....wow very very good indeed....

kim,
yes one of the posibility....

in general have been avoiding n just monitoring plantation stocks since 2010 cause in general commodities are in down trend n i believe in next few months to one year the trend likely to change and potentially the current down trend will end up in grand finale style with the price crash n probably some demos pop up in every felda areas, noise made by opposition geng in parliament n etc...kikiki before changing to up trend....so be ready with cash once the time come, now worry everybody will knows when the time come as indicated by the signs above....n my best guest this price crash session will happen in few weeks some where in 3rd quarter 2015, hopefully by then fgv could go down to rm1.20....n may be somebody has to jump to hold that he dig earlier if fgv reach to rm1.20 .....kikiki....

kimkowlee,
likely just dead cat bounce due to flooding....yes the palm oil price up but i dont think the fgv processing plant is properly working cause some where a long the line such as some felda are under water some felda folks are moved to the flooding care center etc....in fact to me the price is up mainly due to the supply-chain problem, the higher it goes the bigger the problem is and the lower fgv price would be...then the more we can buy n the longer fgv price recovery...probably back to previous price within 3 years time i.e by 2018....kikiki

haha look positively....for what ever reasons this is the opening of golden moment to buy fgv at very very low good discount....especially if they can add in more new jockers into the mgmt team.....so wait till fgv down to rm 1.20 to rm1.50 only then decide for yr investment....

to me in general avoid all comudities stocks....n it is still not too late to cut lost like what is being done by epf

wah today good move fgv drop 5cent......

abcb,
wow that good news to me, my expectation only max down to rm1.50....may be u are right normally it tend to over shoot 20 to 30cent i.e. probably could touch rm1.20.....well n good...just get the cash ready.....

in general all comodities are on down trend including gold....yes there always some localised reasons to cause dead cat bound but i dont think sustainable....this down trend started in 2010 n may be just waiting to crash to find the price botom....my best guess e.g. gold <usd 1000, palm oil around rm1800 per ton.....n since msia is palm oil main producer.....to me the best indacator is when all the "pembangkang" will start to take up palm oil isu in parliment n take charge felda folks n u start to see alot of demo pop up every felda area.....may be by then fgv will be at around rm1.20 to rm1.50 due to oprational distruption....n i love so much this pembangkang because normaly they are the one that causing big colateral damage just like the demo turun etc....yes we realy need this "pembangkang" to make invesment decision.....n good luck to all especially my good friend sahamking.....sahamking kalo bolih mintak tolong gali lubang 6 kaki yg ko kata ari tu....tengok le kalo bulan depan fgv naik rm5 aku bolih terjun lubang tu. ....tapi kalo <rm2 sept 2015 ni elok nya ko pi le terjun....

no worry just follow the fgv bursa daily anouncements n quarterly financial results...... eventually it will end up some where....n decide if fgv is good for investment.....

beside monitoring epf and big players selling, a need also to follow the fgv quarter result closely for at least 3 quarter before making investment decision....but looking at fgv shaky top management i guess even the quarterly result also wont be good n reliable indicators that can be used for investment decision...so guys do be careful this is new type of counter it is not under plantation category but under plantation political category.....

if 1000 units or 2000 units ok la guys u still lost but still can smile....but i am looking at least 500,000 units and more.....if i went in last time at rm2.50 by now lost rm15k already n suddenly this "buger king" just simply call me tin kosong.....kikiki i think this king will have poket kosong by sept 2015....

2222,
epf keep buying or selling...????....but daily announcement show selling...

tq guys sure u know how to make nice joke. .....kiikiki... n i will laugh till fgv down to rm1 next september..kikkiki

Ring,
normally the fruit is over supply during 3rd qtr of the year which likely causing low palm oil price n may be with already lower price for the last 4 years hopefully palm oil price will crash in coming 3rd qtr 2015 n that may be good time to buy fgv and other palm oil based counters such as ioi THplan etc.....n if that really happen i feel like crying remembering my good friend who is hoping fgv will go to rm5 by next month....kikikiki

Ring,
like SimeD and others it is easier to manage cause they have the total control on the operation but FGV is just some kind of holding company n the real workers are all those felda folks n million of them, to deal with them for any action i think easier say than done...that why i am very much agree with albert88, in my opinion crisis after crisis will pop up during this trying time due to palm oil low price that cause fgv to drop to rm1 before the dust settle down....which i think is good for small investor like us to wait and see the unfolding events before deciding to invest in...but i know someone who is very proud to say that fgv will rebound to rm5 by next month although all the big players are selling cheap2 and make big cut lost......but not dare to mention name cause i may get another title such as tin kosong etc .....kikikiki

albert88,
agree wth u.... that may be the main reason why the big investors are selling n cut lost...but don't worry there always some smart guys on the side buying in believing that fgv will go up to rm5 by next months.....

some pro predicte oil could go down as low as usd30 in 2015....dono is it posible...?

once u get hit then u know who is the real tin kosong....kikiki i think your ego is eating u a life

sahamking,
i just want to share thing that happen before in 80ties when palm oil price crash n currently it look like another one is coming...dont just because u can read 3 months chart then u think u are smarter than others....n up to u it your money n u decide which best for u.....u can call me tin kosong or what ever u want n let see u later in sept 2015 when the full blown global crisis hit the global market....

up short while due to flooding.....just for palm oil only but the rest of comudities are very much in down trend to next year.....n i am very much happy n hope the i3 admin deal all my posts before and delate my name from this site....i try to delate my name but cannot.....

happy new year

tired of reading n writing....just leave market alone take it course...well no worry eventually the bull will win...

as i recall it just 3 months i.e 45k barrel per well vs conventional well 1.5mil barrel to 2milbbarrel depend on acquifer pressure...

each well shale oil will only producing average for 3 months that the technicality of it....so to sustain 9mil barrel per day production at least they have to replace the dry wells every 3 months....less future drillings mean less future production wthin 3cmonths...

in general most mechineries will use disel so less disel price vs same contract value equal to extra profit...same to TENAGA less oil cost, pchem less feed stock cost, pdagang less raw oil cost, pgas less gas importing price...etc..

so buy skp now n keep for at least 6 months likely u will win somthing.....

even beter performance shale oil well cant bit conventoinal well because the shale oil can last only 3 months production per well while conventional well will last 10years to 20 years i.e it doesnt mater how eficient but the capex is much biger than conventional...but the way some of the articals as if showing amarican ego against iran russia opec n the rest of the world...n looking at the techical as if usa is fighting loosing battle cause sooner or later minimun after 3 months most shale oil wells will be dry n with high capex spending vs conventional i dont think shale oil will sustain the production n likely become swing production for any high oil price vs the conventional producer....

anyway after drilling few years i believe all the easy sweet sports are drilled n left with deeper n harder area which take more capex to drill...so no worry to me oil price will recover within 6 months from now cause by then shale oil likely become swing production wells which trigered by oil price higher than usd75...

skp on selling pressure since july likely due to foreinger dumping the stock n epf n geng the buying side...i dont think we need foreign money after all in bskl cause they are the one that likely that cerate big swing n trouble....

after all the foreigners quit bskl just drop around 8% i.e bskl is less rellying on foreign money...so dont worry to much n i hope all foreigners getout completely from bskl even better cause they are contributing big part of the major swing in bskl although they are just around 20% in bskl...

gadang is suppose to make better profit due to cheap oil...so y drop so much... may be it will rebound so so much much...kikiki

azrb is simply over price....or just like zelan 2013 all reporting qtrly big lost n sudently profit jump greatly after they colect cheaply below 20cent in 2013...may be the same game being played on azrb

oil down good for alot of stocks... cheap oil mean more profit for TENAGA, construction co less energy cost improve profit...pchem improve profit due to cheap feed stock...so in general...cheap oil/energy mean good to a lot of klci component stocks n others and all of us will get good benefit on cheap oil....so i guess bskl will rebound strongly next few weeks.....before global market consolidation take charge in 2015....

German above all time high last night, usa all days on new record, china going up >10% with in week, japan going up non stop for some time...yen 121/usd, ringgit 4.471/usd...oil in down cycle...so look like some kind of wild riding.....be careful guys cause the TA indicators all over the world suggesting the potential major trend change is just around the coner hiding behind China Japan stimulis and lastly EU QE.....

Will OPEC bankrupt US shale producers?
"$68 a barrel is not economical for a lot of these shale oil wells. CDS [credit default swap] spreads and yields on some of the debt are rising very quickly, because at these kinds of oil prices you are going to see producers go bankrupt," he added.

read more....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102222911

idea i posted earlier...

Seadrill Ltd...sad day for this USA co...???

what the pro say...$60 oil after OPEC meeting is not possible: BRG's Grossman
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102213356

action n reaction......stop with EU lost world (400mil people) start wth india shining star (1bil people)...so which one is better...

Putin to Deepen India Energy Ties as Modi Seeks China Treatment
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/putin-to-deepen-india-energy-ties-as-modi-seeks-china-treatment.html

who is affected n y....
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-lets-be-thankful-that-us-oil-is-pulverizing-opec-2014-11-26?dist=tbeforebell

so all suddenly every body become so poor...just wounder so who will buy USA products such as fighter jet,DRONE, ford car, GMC, IT etc when everybody just busy to feed themselves..... action always with normally followed by reaction n everybody eventually become looser....

What makes Canada's oil sands worth the trouble?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102220055

now quickly recovering....

sunztzhe,
not yet n let see what happen tomorrow...

i still very much believe usd60 is almost impossible to hit unless due to war or major disaster which could cause major economic turmoil...

kimkowlee,
may be but it could make a lot of producers running at lost....

one good thing at least tomorrow will cost us less to buy petrol...kikiki...n skp still intact unless oil goes below usd40???

the real effect only will show within 6 months from now...(global recession..???? or) economic booming due to cheap oil....???

brent above 72 n wti 69....so look like hit bottom 71.25 n 67.75... good....probably at this bottom will kill some expensive oil producers from tar sand n shale...n delay some major pipe line projects...

brent lowest usd71.25 wti usd67.75...let see if it will fall further to lost world.....kikiki...now start rebound...

i want to see when it will hit usd60....who will cry....USA, Russia or the OPEC states ???....

some of earlier trouble affecting US and EU states n others...??
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102220706?trknav=homestack:topnews:4

AhMoi,
haha let see....i still believe oil n skp will go up after opec meeting...the current down just game played by hedge fund n fund managers to catch the shacky players....

but i believe oil price will go up after the opec meeting end as suggested by oil TA chart...