mmm just may be more crabs cleaning to come.....

1. middle east crab
2. Financial crab
3. probably cleaning up another crab (i.e legal crab this time)....hehehe

not bad performance up 3 sen after long rest.....hope tomorrow will continue up trend....

good luck u all have happy trading....

one thing that i learn from warrent burfett is focus evaluation on the fundamental value n current & future growth potential

i3i2i1,
ok u try this one....
http://www.tradesignum.com/chart/azrb

char1234,
TQ, but I learn my great greed lesson before n not to go to the same route again

i3i2i1,
u are right, hope u all enjoy the up hill ride with out me...
http://cn1.kentrade.com.my/applet/kenanga_ta_chart.jsp?uid=78766376797476&load=7078&market=KLSE

probably the real killer will come in 2018/19 i,e 10 years from last major bearish cycle...and i tend to believe at this point of time most people are drunk with complacency n daun ketum...kikiki

USA presidential election is in 2016...and potential bullish for usa stock in 2015/16 after 6 months to 9 months 10% to 20% correction ....???

Calvin,
TQ for yr opinion n sharing...and of the following, i dont mean to scare or excite anybody this is just my own take on the bskl in relation to the global roof top equity mkt;

based on just volume trend suggesting that potentially bskl is at firm ground to swing up;

...http://biz.thestar.com.my/marketwatch/charts/intraidx.asp?indice=main,COMPOSITE&days=90&type=1&p1=1869.92&p2=1870.04&p3=1871.26&p4=1865.6&p5=1866.04&p6=-3.88&p7=-0.21&p8=22118195...

please toggle to 1 year chart

this chart show every pull back with high volume is followed by up cycle; it happen before in sept 2013, early 2014 and currently in progress while bskl in pull back situation, and my take the current pull back is likely followed by the up cycle but this potentially the last up cycle before meaningful 10% to 20% correction based on the following chart;

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EKLSE&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=m200%2Cb%2Cm100%2Cm50%2Cv&a=r14%2Cw14%2Cm26-12-9&;;c=

over this chart the MACD starting with big bang right after election may 2013 and as time progress it getting weaker every up cycle and currently in negative territory and potentially weaker rebound compared to earlier up cycle, suggesting potential trend reversal...

this potential trend reversal is in line with:
1. potential OPR up revision from 3.25% to 3.5% which reported could be as early as sept 2014 and latest by nov 2014
2. potential global interest up cycle ?? at least in msia
3. ending of QE in USA by oct 2014
4. Federal Reserve usd4trilion balance sheet disposal ???
5. currency imbalance as a result of currency flight

so base on the above my game plan is to cash out all my position in the potentially last bskl up cycle n rest for awhile from equity mkt at least for 3 months to 6 months while observing the following :
1. plantation stocks realignment to the palm oil bearish cycle
2. potential return of palm oil bull cycle
3. property bubble burst...?? or going side way
4. ......
and so on

***last but not least gadang(has plam oil), azrb(has plam oil) and other palm oil plantation stocks such as fgv. THplan prices realignment to the fundamental value especially when palm oil turn to bull cycle

note: this could be the starting point for pre PRU 14 bull cycle where GLC stocks such as tenega, fgv IHH will be in front stage....

hahaha time to rest....before start running up hill again...

Is now the time investors should move to cash?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101906896

sunztzhe,
no venture no gain but now i always remember that investment will involve risk so after all the losses i made before to me no proper risk assessment no investment, better do nothing than keep on losing about everything ....kikiki

sunztzhe,
FYI I have learn my lesson losing a lot of money just for very simple reason ignorant...i don’t think that i want to repeat the old same mistake again....

EPS .03, PE 12, fair price 0.36....do nothing...to me no real justification n at least no real value based on fact and figure to invest why do i need to invest in azrb....

1. just wait gadang weakness buy some more as long as it is < rm2.00
2. looking for others such as plantation stocks which potentially having good future value...FYI palm oil has been bearish for about 3 years but for now the plantation stock PE still not reflecting the current bearish cycle...
http://www.4-traders.com/MALAYSIA-PALM-OIL-16222/technical_analysis-full/&plein=1
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=palm-oil&months=240&currency=myr
3. .....
4. .....
and on and on..

AhMoi,
For sure the azrb share value has been diluted by the right issue n reduction of par value..n to me EPS(PE) is the main driver and the rest like dividend and the rest just extra income,,,

kiasu_trader,
TQ for sharing..i will wait the news...

i dono but i dont think azrb will jump to rm2 by tomorrow or even after the qtr result....

hope all are enjoying up hill ride.....

waaa azrb-wa going to the roof....

AhMoi,
I will buy at any reasonable level when i see clear step to the higher mountain not lower ground....now just relax play freecell while waiting for azrb qtr result...kikiki

...and sharing some of the noises that i come across but dont worry no horror story looo...

splendid_ignorance,
u are right it will happen when everybody drunk with complacency.....but for now buying on weakness n deep...

Another risk of market crash? Warning bells ringing....haha now they are more careful.....

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/08/11/Another-risk-of-market-crash-RBI-governor-Raghuram-Rajan-is-concerned-investors-may-leave-emerging-m/

Malaysia’s June industrial output exceeds forecast...good22
so no worry..!!!
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/08/11/Malaysia-June-industrial-output-exceeds-forecast/

what MIDF has to say about last week sell off....

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/08/11/Foreign-funds-sold-RM285m-of-Malaysian-shares-MIDF-Research/

last week sell off was due to Japan GDP...just wonder if it will have major impact on msian equity n economy....

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101905132

I am of the opinion that any major weakness which will derail the world economic recovery will be quickly rescued....(by IMF, central bank n regional economic cooperation G6 and the G alike)

looking at rm/us look like money flow under control no major out flow indirectly probably may suggest msian equity mkt still under control...???
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDMYR=X&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

i3i2i1 let see the current qtr result coming soon ???

got 2sen dividend in Qtr 1&2 FY2013...

the reason i share my game plan n exmple because some time people arguing until the cow come home without realizing that they are totaly having different game plan....
to me i just want to share all the facts n figures including haze n all the noises as such all of us will be able to make proper decision according your individual game plan....

King Kong73,
Yes agree with u,everybody has his or her own game plan that fit to his or her own objective..

that is just example to share my game plan, how i approch risk base on my investment objective n target and i always apply the same game plan to any of my share investment....

at any moment there always be some body applying his or her game plan of each buying and selling....

to me technical and financial info are just tool and input for making investment decision and up to each individual how he or she would approach the investment risk against his or her investment objective n target....

just example; i would rather pay at premium but less technical n financial risk because i would be able to see clear step to achieve my objective within my target time frame 2 to 3 years in future (which include all potential return such as price expansion, dividend and bonus)

Let have a look at azrb now @ 75sen,let say with the sound current quarter result with dividend 5sen (20sen per year) and i buy @ rm1 after the qtr result...assuming after that the share price stay at rm1 for the whole year actually in real term i just pay 80sen for the share but stand at firm ground with clear step to achieve my objective in my target time frame 2 to 3 years;

case 1 :
20sen dividend per year but azrb stay rm1 for the whole 3 years
i.e i make investment return 20% per year
total return 60% in 3 years

case 2
same dividend as per case 1 but increase price 10% per year
total return 90% in 3 years

those are some of the potential results, but to me the most important with clear step and direction that i will have stress less investment in my hand....

that what really happening to my gadang now after 1+ years average buying price rm1.25 and current price at around rm1.70+ with dividend (16sen per year)i.e approximately 48% return for the 1st year

fortunebullz,
TQ for your sharing n advice....
anyway i dont mine buying at hill top that having clear step leading to the mountain but certainly not buying at flat ground probably leading to no where.....
...see what happen to bskl tomorrow after us rebound...
...good luck guys....

Calvin,
i am so sure that i am the confuse one...kikiki still wondering around buy or not to buy.....anyway hopefully the quarter reports will help me decide....

Guys TQ for all the sharing n opinion... hope everybody benefiting form it..

the most probably pe 10 to pe 12 so 35cent to 42cent !!! but now 72cent....over price !!!!??

orrrr 40cent??? orrrr rm1.20???

so after all the opinion n discussion, any idea what is azrb fair value at this moment ?? (80cent??, 70cent?? 60cent???)

Dont worry next few qtr results will tell...be patient and relax...anyway each individual project has it own economic cycle some very probably just 1 or 2 years and others probably more than 20 years

My opinion, azrb potentially having liability for some time on the long run project but only one EKVE....along the way likely gaining some of mega projects which my gross estimation around rm8 bil to rm10bil max to rm20bil...

so my conclusion :
1. azrb is a long play stock probably 3 to 5 years range...investing require patient
2. buying in on major weakness no price chasing
3. understanding detail qtr reports is critical for investing

4. last but not least "GOOD LUCK GUYS"

Project in progress as per FY2013 report
1.MY Rapid Transit Package V6 & S6
Contract Value RM 607 million
Balance of contract value RM 403 million

2.PNB Hotel & Office Towers, Jalan Sultan Ismail
Contract Value RM 673 million
Balance of contract value RM 644 million

3.IIUM Teaching Hospital, Kuantan, Pahang
Contract Value RM 413 million
Balance of contract value RM 287 million

4.East Coast Expressway Phase 2 - Package 2
Contract Value RM 145 million
Balance of contract value RM 43 million

5.Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (“UTM”)Jalan Semarak, Kuala Lumpur
Contract Value RM 172 million
Balance of contract value RM 168 million

6.Royal Malaysian Police Air Wing Unit,Subang
Contract Value RM 162 million
Balance of contract value RM 158 million

7.Langat 2 Water Treatment Plant
Contract Value RM 298* million
Balance of contract value RM 298* million
* Based on 30% shareholding in the JV

This suggest that good future EPS will probably require higher construction activity than current one (2X ???) i.e azrb at least require extra rm1bil more construction revenue in FY2014 on ward....
Will that be achievable with additional contract such as :

1.Langat 2 Water Treatment Plant
Contract Value RM 298* million
Balance of contract value RM 298* million
* Based on 30% shareholding in the JV

2. EKVE
Contract Value RM 1+ billion

3.THE PROPOSED CONSTRUCTION AND COMPLETION OF 2 BLOCKS OF OFFICE BUILDINGS, RETAILS SPACES AND EXTERNAL WORKS ON PLOTS Z1 AND Z2, 3 LEVELS OF BASEMENT PARKING AND ACCESS ROAD ON PLOTS Z1, Z2, Z3 AND Z4; AND UPGRADING WORKS TO JALAN ALAMANDA WITH ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURES AND LANDSCAPING WORKS AT PRECINCT 1, WILAYAH PERSEKUTUAN PUTRAJAYA
Contract Value RM 185,1 million

yet to be seen..... need to see the result at least in FY 2014 1 quarter report....

FY2013 result :
1. ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION DIVISION (main positive factor)
The E&C Division continued to be the major contributor to the Group’s results by recording revenue of
RM524 million (2012: RM597 million); a decrease of 12% over the previous year. The decrease is due to completion
and delivery of five (5) projects during the year and also due to new projects that have yet to reach the peak of its
completion progress.
The profit before tax increased to RM49.1 million (2012: RM42.8 million) as a result of differences in the project mix
and stages of completion of the various projects of the Group in 2012 and 2013.

2.OIL & GAS DIVISION (main positive factor)
The Oil & Gas Division recorded a slight decrease in revenue for the year 2013 compared to the previous year. For 2013,
revenue was RM53.7 million, a decrease of 22.7% from the RM69.5 million recorded in 2012. However, the profit before
tax were not impacted by the decrease of revenue during the year. The Division continues to contribute significantly to
the bottom line of the Group. Profit before tax contribution was RM20.2 million (2012: RM20.3 million).

3.PLANTATION DIVISION (main negative factor)
The Division contributed revenue of RM4.1 million (2012: RM2.5 million) and a loss before taxation of RM27.1 million
(2012: RM12.4 million). The losses are generally resulted from unrealised foreign exchange and higher operational
costs. We are confident that the contributions from this Division will improve over the next few years as the trees
become more mature.

4. PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT DIVISION
The Division recorded an improvement of revenue of RM11.5
million, an increase of 105% (2012: RM5.6 million). In tandem
with the increase of revenue, profit before tax also increased to
RM3.9 million (2012: RM1.3 million). The revenue bounced
back as compared to prior year due to the completion of the
current phases that were launched in 2011.

My opinion :
1.looking at the FY2013 above and with current palm oil bearish cycle likely it will contributing main negative result for few years to come

2. construction still likely to be the main contributor to the bottom line and near future EPS performance likely mainly driven by the construction future performance....

4. oil & gas likely at the top flattening curve for some time to come as recurring income...

Calvin,
TQ for sharing...

but FY2013 eps is just 1.2sen....dono why...in general it look like as if the foreign income is not included/factored in the analysis n good thing to wonder why n what the impact on azrb price .... it could be hidden gem...

and technical indicators (RSI,MACD n stochastic) have turned bullish n require 2 to 3 weeks for the up ward trend confirmation ....

Calvin,
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 10, 2014 12:39 AM | Report Abuse

For AZRB the Palm fruit bunches should generate RM44 Millions a year now.

(**** EPS about 9 cent)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

honestly I just cant figure out (**** EPS about 9 cent) in Figure 1 of this report(azrb) http://eresearch.bursamalaysia.com/download.aspx?id=15392&type=research

or

some how it was miss-out form the analysis.... any idea... cause if that is true then EPS for FY2014 would be (3.5+9)cent and FY2015 would be (6.2+9)cent....azrb fair vaue would be around rm1.20...???

or

it is push back ward to be later included by azrb due to certain reason as it from foreign (indon) income...i.e it is belong to associate co to azrb

or

will not appear in azrb n will only appear in the azrb associate co


****this is also dont think included
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Subsequent to our announcement made on 3 September 2010 in relation to the Contract Agreement with Alfaisal University (“AFU”) for Alfaisal University Campus Development Project Phase 1 & 2 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (“the Contract”), the Board of Directors of Ahmad Zaki Resources Berhad (“AZRB” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce that the Company has on 29 July 2013 received notification that the Sole Arbitrator in ICC Arbitration case No. 17768/ND/MCP, AZRB Vs AFU and King Faisal Foundation (“KFF”) pertaining to the Contract (“the Arbitration”) has issued his final judgement and award. In the aforesaid final judgement and award, the Sole Arbitrator had ordered AFU and KFF to jointly and severally pay to AZRB the total amount of SAR 92,570,300 in respect of claims made by the Company in the Arbitration. The Company through its Legal Counsels in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is now taking all necessary steps to execute the aforesaid judgement and award.

This announcement is dated 29 July 2013.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

sunztzhe n Calvin,
TQ for sharing your opinion....that is why i just focus on gadang n monitoring azrb closely cause any haze clearance would have major impact on azrb direction trend (up or down ward) but looking at future potential could be up ward...so have to wait these to firm up my understanding...
1. financial clean up result
2. qtr report
this may be able provide some answer....

anyway i have said earlier i believe azrb currently is cleaning up itself from all sort of crabs in getting ready for future mega ventures n potentially be the shining star in pre pru 14 rally in 2016/17.....?????

sunztzhe,
1. good income from palm oil potentially from 2016 on ward ??(new bull cycle ??? currently in bear cycle)
2. EKVE only completed by 2017, good imcome ????
3. Hospital in kuantan good imcome ???? rm1.5bil for next 10 years ???

*** to me still a lot of haze....
I believe at least if these 3 potential income can be firm up then there would be clear direction a head for buying in decision...

any idea n help to firm up these 3 projects income....

i3i2i1, Calvin n who ever want to know more about gadang clear up ward direction(forecast)vs azrb... u can see potential EPS big jump from FY2012 (0.06) to FY2015 (0.33) n FY2016 (0.49)....but not in azrb FY2012 (0.039) to FY2015 (0.062).....

(gadang) http://eresearch.bursamalaysia.com/download.aspx?id=15737&type=research

(azrb) http://eresearch.bursamalaysia.com/download.aspx?id=15392&type=research

** ALl in all FY2015 based on forecast it could change drastically....

Calvin,
TQ..Capital City 21 look interesting to me...let me do year end jalan2 carik makan...

Calvin,
TQ for sharing...if that is the case may be some day i will be buying property in JB..but too far form KL...may be just may be small apartment for leisure cum long term small investment.....for jalan makan cari makan, side seeing JB-Singapore....

Calvin,
u may want to visit this good paper by SJSOON...n the rest..

1.http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sjsoon_gadang_2May/51347.jsp

2. n the rest... http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/nb/9261.jsp