A COVID triple-mutant found in India could be much more deadly, and may be resistant to existing vaccines

This is bad for everyone. How will this even end?

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-triple-mutant-in-india-could-be-much-more-deadly-2021-4

Uncle Koon, You have been promoting glove stocks for the better part of the glove downturn. You were still positive on glove stocks when you preached your last sermon. Come on. It has been less than 2 months since. Surely, the production plannings didn't just pop up in the last 52 days. Just because you have sold out your glove positions doesn't mean that you must badmouth the glove stocks. This is very bad faith on your part.

@Goldberg: Stock: [GENM]: GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
Apr 20, 2021 8:05 AM | Report Abuse

Mr DIY's market cap is more than Genting Malaysia - Really?

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The stock market is all about sentiments. Fundamentals serve only as a safety net. Supermax has excellent fundamentals. Yet its stock price was sold down. But relax. When all the stars align, it will easily hit Rm40 and still dwell well within the fundamentals (albeit, if it isn't bought out by the American before that). In March 2020, Tesla share price was $40. One year later, it shot up to $900 based on nothing more than exuberance. If Supermax were to be trading with exuberance plus fundamental, the market makers would rocket its stock price well above Rm40. The narratives in favor of Supermax are coalescing for the coming rally. Shorting by JP Morgan could be positive. This story will be for another time. Hang on tight.

I always find KYY's logic in his assessments of stocks to be very sound. What is not sound is the market. The market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The present market is a classic example of a market that has disconnected from the fundamentals. Trading the disconnect is always perilous. Only the puppeteers win. However, at some point, equilibrium will always return when the asset bubble bursts.

Excellent job, Ben. I am taking on your offer. Please email me your data. I shall PM my email address to you. Be sure to check your i3 message box.

DON'T BET AGAINST SUPERMAX, YET

Moderna vaccine - a man in California died shortly after receiving the vaccine.

Pfizer vaccine - a physician died 2 weeks after receiving the vaccine.

https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/145581/20210125/probe-launched-over-death-of-california-man-who-was-vaccinated-hours-earlier.htm

Just google it. There are multiple reports that Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have severe side effects.

Many more speed bumps are still ahead before the world can put covid-19 under control. Gloves are still needed for years to come. ASP may not rise at the current pace forever. But the higher than pre-pandemic ASP looks sustainable for years. With it, earnings may continue to outpace pre-pandemic because of continuous capacity expansion by Supermax.

The IBs are ignoring this narrative. But it doesn't mean they can ignore forever. Earnings visibility for glove companies as projected by Harta in their quarterly report yesterday is in years, not months. This means Supermax is severely undervalued. It's rallying cycle will come.

Don't bet against Supermax, just yet, takeover target or not.

Harta in its quarterly report expects demand to outstrip supply for the next several years. Surely Harta knows the glove markets better than those eunuchs in the investment frims. Here's the quote:

"In addition, the sector is expected to undergo a structural step-up in demand on the back of increased glove usage from emerging markets with low gloves consumption per capita and heightened hygiene awareness. The overall projected growth in demand is expected to outstrip supply for the next few years."

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SUPERMAX: WILL IT BE TAKEN PRIVATE?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-01-17-story-h1539383454-SUPERMAX_WILL_IT_BE_TAKEN_PRIVATE.jsp

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SUPERMAX: WILL IT BE TAKEN PRIVATE?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-01-17-story-h1539383454-SUPERMAX_WILL_IT_BE_TAKEN_PRIVATE.jsp

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SUPERMAX: WILL IT BE TAKEN PRIVATE?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-01-17-story-h1539383454-SUPERMAX_WILL_IT_BE_TAKEN_PRIVATE.jsp

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SUPERMAX: WILL IT BE TAKEN PRIVATE?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-01-17-story-h1539383454-SUPERMAX_WILL_IT_BE_TAKEN_PRIVATE.jsp

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SUPERMAX: WILL IT BE TAKEN PRIVATE?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-01-17-story-h1539383454-SUPERMAX_WILL_IT_BE_TAKEN_PRIVATE.jsp

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SUPERMAX: WILL IT BE TAKEN PRIVATE?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-01-17-story-h1539383454-SUPERMAX_WILL_IT_BE_TAKEN_PRIVATE.jsp

SUPERMAX: WILL IT BE TAKEN PRIVATE?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2021-01-17-story-h1539383454-SUPERMAX_WILL_IT_BE_TAKEN_PRIVATE.jsp

Thanks, @supersaiyan3. Fixed. 30b.

Just my wild conjecture. The more infectious covid variants in the UK, SA, and now the US may be the results of vaccines. Notice that these more infectious variants came about following mass trials of vaccines. If proven right, Rm40 will be a foregone conclusion.

Posted by freetospeak > Dec 24, 2020 8:11 AM | 

Supermax as a long term ppe suplier to gomen agency and strategic reserve commands a moat and high asp premium over competitors.

From plant direct to end user now commands a super premium not reversible back to precovid.they cant do that in the past as most direct contact was controlled by big 4 in the past.the big 4 manage most hospital ppe supplies in the past thus had the bargainjng power to turn malaysia glove manufacturer as slave workers for many yrs. They can cherrry pick diff suppliers who offer them the lowest price.hence the cannabalism in oem players....

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@freetospeak. This is indeed a very positive piece of information. If Supermax has indeed sewn this deal with the US government, there ought to have some kind of a signed agreement. So far, I don't remember Supermax has made any formal announcement of a signed agreement with the government of the United States. I might have missed it. I appreciate if you can direct me to a link where that formal announcement was made. Thank you.

It just occurred to me that Supermax's ROE for FY21 will be a whopping 250%. I expect its FY21 earnings to be no less than Rm 4.1 billion. A 25% ROE is already sterling. 250%? It's way off the ballpark.

Very good numbers

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SUPERMAX SHARE PRICE – WILL IT BE SUNK BY JP MORGAN?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2020-12-14-story-h1537566048-SUPERMAX_SHARE_PRICE_WILL_IT_BE_SUNK_BY_JP_MORGAN.jsp

@WeLoveSarawak Philip Capital chief strategist Phua Lee Kerk said Top Glove’s record-high revenue and profit have already been factored into the share price.

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Clueless IB. A lot of BS.

It's hard for Top Glove price to move up. EPF is the culprit. It needs to raise cash for the coming avalanche of withdrawals. There are few profitable counters left in its portfolio. Glove counters are among those few. EPF is selling Top Glove shares everyday - non-stop.

Top Glove should stop releasing quarterly results in mid-day. Release the results only at the end of the market. Investors need time to study the report more thoroughly. For those who have access to Top Glove management, please convey this message.

IT'S NUTS!. How can Supermax stock price be so undervalued.



Leaked government map reveals almost entire US is a Covid hotspot

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/covid-hotspot-us-government-map-b1764747.html

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HOW TO TREAD THE MINEFIELD TOWARDS SUPERMAX BONANZA

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/sts/2020-11-30-story-h1537325977-HOW_TO_TREAD_THE_MINEFIELD_TOWARDS_SUPERMAX_BONANZA.jsp

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HOW TO TREAD THE MINEFIELD TOWARDS SUPERMAX BONANZA

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2020-11-30-story-h1537325977-HOW_TO_TREAD_THE_MINEFIELD_TOWARDS_SUPERMAX_BONANZA.jsp

@George Leong. My call is crystal clear. My bet is on Supermax earnings to continue rising quarter after quarter. Covid can potentially shut down Supermax factories or any other factories. No one can rule out this possibility. But, demands for gloves are inelastic. This situation will not change for some time. When supplies are disrupted, the shortage of gloves will naturally force the prices up. It is just the way the economic principle works. This mechanism will mitigate some production losses.

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TOP GLOVE LOCKDOWN AND SUPERMAX SHARE PRICE

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2020-11-26-story-h1536638862-TOP_GLOVE_LOCKDOWN_AND_SUPERMAX_SHARE_PRICE.jsp

@Philip (buy what you understand), @Mat Cendana & @Devilsadvocatee: Thanks. I hear you.

@pharker, good sharing. Excellent addition. Funds managers will have to invest within the scope of their respective investment policy statement.

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SUPERMAX SHARE PRICE CRUMBLES – TO SELL NOW OR TO BUY MORE?

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https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2020-11-18-story-h1536488729-SUPERMAX_SHARE_PRICE_CRUMBLES_TO_SELL_NOW_OR_TO_BUY_MORE.jsp

Extract from Kossan 3Q20 report:

In the Gloves division, demand continues to far exceed supply. The increase in average selling price has started to be reflected in the current quarter, and the Group expects further significant upward price adjustments on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the 4th quarter of FY2020.

Key is ASP is still rising.

Check this out.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2020-11-10-story-h1535721950-SUPERMAX_STOCK_PRICE_vs_PFIZER_VACCINE_STORAGE_AT_94_F.jsp

@tips888 Why would you want to sell at a loss instead of selling at a big fat profit later? Price volatility is normal for stock like Supermax. Stay calm and focus on earnings. There's nothing to fear when a company continue to rack up profits by the billions. But the decision is yours.

I found this article for you:

Brazil suspends Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine trial due to adverse event

For the full story:
https://www.investing.com/news/coronavirus/brazil-suspends-sinovac-covid19-vaccine-trial-due-to-adverse-event-2344431

@keown83: There's already a very vibrant blog set up specifically to address this issue. (https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/freetospeak/2020-11-03-story-h1535598133-WINDFALL_TAX_on_GLOVES.jsp).

In addition to that, my sense is, I believe the invisible hands of the IBs are at work. There will be 3 tranches of Structured Warrants expiring between Nov 20 & 30 with a total number of original issued shares of 400m. If all of them were outstanding, on paper, the 3 IBs would incur massive losses to the tune of Rm900m, based on settlement price of just Rm9. But of course, the IBs have mitigated this disaster. I am certain, they would have bought back most of the warrants by now leaving no more than 1m shares outstanding. This is not the only way that the IBs make money. They can also trade the Supermax shares just like you and me. And Supermax being one of the most fragmented share ownership amongst the big caps with the Thai Family being the only group to own above 5%, the IBs, with their expertise and overwhelming capital can easily swing the share price up and down. Such high volatility favors the IBs, but it scares the living daylights out of the retail investors. So, unless you're extremely good at trading the stock, it would be better to focus only the only 2 factors that count - Father Time & Earnings Visibility - and ignore the noises. All the best.

@Gaussian. You can be rest assured that I understand the concept of PE extremely well. One just couldn't have written 3 levels of CFA exams without understanding this simple concept. But, opinions on this do defer. So, let's just leave it at that.

Supermax PE explosion. Impossible?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2020-10-30-story-h1535541185-Supermax_PE_Explosion.jsp

The coming Supermax really.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/sts/2020-10-28-story-h1535510498-The_coming_big_Supermax_rally.jsp

The coming big Supermax rally.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/sts/2020-10-28-story-h1535510498-The_coming_big_Supermax_rally.jsp

Glove is no longer viewed as a coronavirus induced one-time wonder. It's now accepted that glove companies will continue to grow long after vaccines are found, and long after Covid-19 is eradicated. As Supermax continues to achieve quarter after quarter of rising profits, it will take on the mantra of a sustainable growing company. The market will have to recognise it as such and priced Supermax as a high growth company with a PE to match.

I still maintain a Rm40+ TP. (You can check out my rationale.)

Coronavirus is spreading like wildfire around the world and the US by NBC News.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/third-wave-coronavirus-infections-u-s-more-wildfire-epidemiologist-says-n1244603

There's news circulating that Supermax's 1Q21 results will be released end of today!

How long more can the market continue to suppress Supermax value?

Hartalega reported PAT Rm545m. It's shares outstanding is 3.4 b.

Supermax on the other hand has only 2.7 b shares outstanding. If Supermax PAT comes in at Rm1 b, based on the market's valuation of Harta, Supermax share price should be at least Rm40!

Yesterday, the US recorded 80,000+ new covid cases and the world, near 500,000. This round of infections is far, far worse than when it first began. What kind of warped minds would proffer their advice that demands for gloves could decline causing a downward spiral in earnings for Supermax? Such people are unfit to comment on this forum.

Posted by investingbasics > Oct 14, 2020 4:15 PM | Report Abuse
TP12.20
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Bro’, a TP12.20?

Don’t you think it is way underselling Supermax?

For those who have seriously analyzed Supermax know that the FY21 earnings will easily hit Rm4.5 billion. With the share outstanding (after netting off treasury shares and share dividend) of 2.63 billion, the forward EPS for FY21 is about Rm1.70.

What PE multiple would you assign a highly profitable company like Supermax? 10x? That will be laughable. Even at this laughable 10x PE, Supermax target price should already be at Rm17!

So what is holding back Supermax price surge? I can’t tell for sure. But these are the possibilities:
1. The super profits are transient – meaning temporary.
2. Covid-19 will soon be over with vaccine coming on-stream.
3. The rise of ASP is unsustainable.
4. Supermax price has already increased too high and too fast.
5. IBs are suppressing the stock price.

Whatever those arguments may be, stock prices are mostly driven by increasing profitability and news flows. For those who do their own numbers projection will know that with production capacity expansion by Supermax and new products (beyondmask and contact lenses) coming on-stream, Supermax profit visibility is expected to continue into a foreseeable future despite the negative perceptions above.

What are the current news flows?
1. Convid-19 infections are on the rise worldwide.
2. Demands for gloves have shifted; gloves are expanding their usage
across industries and developing countries.
3. Vaccine stories are already priced in (those who are still worried that
vaccine will slow down the demands for gloves have not been paying
attention).
4. Gloves demands are recession proof, war proof, virus proof, etc.
5. As economic prospects for the traditional businesses collapse,
investors will have no place to put their money but into the few
profitable businesses like gloves. This will have an incredible
propensity to drive up stock prices for Supermax.

What the news flows currently are ignoring – intentionally or otherwise – is Supermax EPS. The market for whatever reasons is ignoring that Supermax generates the highest earnings per share among glove counters. It is the strongest and fastest growing glove company period - far better than Top Glove. Sooner or later, the market will have to acknowledge this undeniable reality.

Now, given all these inputs, how will you price Supermax? 10x? 15x? 20x? 30x? 40x?

Traditionally, glove counters are priced about 35x. If Supermax were to be priced at 35x, its TP would be a whopping Rm60! Unimaginable.

How about a more sedate 15x? Even this should put the TP at Rm25.

In my opinion a reasonable PE for Supermax will be at least 25x considering all the known factors. At 25x PE, Supermax target price is



TPTPTPTPTP Rm40 TPTPTPTPTP






NOTE: All numbers are rounded for easy reference. Please do your own research. This is strictly my personal opinion. Though I am bullish on Supermax, it does not mean that I will not sell the shares at some point. No shares go straight up. There will be a lot of zig-zagging along the way for shrewd traders to trade in and out on. But trading itself entails certain risks.

Not so easy to eliminate COVID-19 after all. This means Supermax profit visibility may continue years into the future.

https://www.rt.com/usa/503303-gates-covid-interview/

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine not working.

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/global-covid-19-news-cases-in-russia-exploding-despite-sputnik-v,-britain-passes-half-million-mark,-france-on-red-alert,-new-york-to-impose-restrictio

Glove stocks are being hyped up in Singapore, while Malaysian IBs are dampening glove counters. Malaysian IBs have ulterior motives to suppress glove stock prices. Singapore tells the truth. Soon, glove stock prices will be skyrocketing.

https://www.asiaone.com/money/3-reasons-fall-glove-stock

I think this is how the market sentiments towards gloves stocks will likely pan out. Once the successful completion of China's vaccine trials are completed, say, in Oct, and vaccination of Chinese populace begins, the market will notice that there is no decline in glove demands (obviously). Supermax will continue to churn out Rm 1+ billion profits. After that the market focus will turn to marginal rate of growth of profits. So long as profits continue to grow, Supermax stock price will just hum along. The stock price will reverse the moment the rate of growth ceases. So we'll have to let Supermax's PAT do the talking beginning Oct or Nov. In the mean time just let the market do what the market does best. If you still have bullets buy all the way down if you are convinced of Supermax profit outlook. Sit tight. The better days are still ahead.